Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The fourth Newspoll since its wrong call at the election continues to credit the Coalition with only a modest lead on two-party preferred, with the minor parties continue to lift and Scott Morrison recording the opposite of a US visit bounce.

The fourth Newspoll since the federal election credits the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead, unchanged on the last poll three weeks ago, with both major parties down on the primary vote – the Coalition by one to 42%, and Labor by two to 33%. The Greens and One Nation are both up a point, the former to 13% – their best result from Newspoll since 2015 – and the latter to 6%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have deteriorated, either despite or because of his activities in the United States last week, his approval down two to 47% and disapproval up four to 43%. Anthony Albanese has bounced back four on approval to 39% after a six-point drop last time, but the report in The Australian does not relate his disapproval rating (UPDATE: Steady at 40%). Morrison’s preferred prime minister reading goes from 48-28 to 50-31, as respondents apparently becoming more inclined to pick a side.

The poll was presumably conducted as usual from Thursday to Sunday – no sample size is provided, but the norm is around 1600. More to follow.

UPDATE: The sample was 1658, of which 900 came from online surveys and 758 from automated phone polling. Also featured is a question on which relationship Australia should prioritise out of the United States and China, who came in at 56% and 25% respectively. The split was 70-18 among Coalition supporters, 46-32 for Labor, 60-24 among men and 51-26 among women.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,439 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. E. G. Theodore says:
    Wednesday, October 2, 2019 at 3:06 pm
    Dandy Murray:

    Have a skim of this Fraunhofer report
    I’e said it before (and I’ll say it again, in an attempt to up my insifferability quotient) but AU would be wise to create something like the four German research “societies” (Planck, Heimhloz, Leibniz, Fraunhofer). The CSIRO model is a relic (and being gutted, too)

    Very good idea.

  2. C@t and MD,

    Social Services Minister Anne Ruston is good at sticking to the party lines…….

    Ruston said she was focused on creating job opportunities, while helping welfare recipients with substance abuse or social isolation issues.

    “I think the issue around people who currently find themselves unemployed is much more complex than just the safety net that is provided by the Australian government’s taxpayer-funded welfare system,” she said.

    “There’s a lot more that we as a government need to do.”

    but little else.
    She is the minister, for goodness sake.

    If there is “a lot more that we …. need to do” to help with issues of alcoholism or isolation or gambling then she is the one who would announce it.
    She hasn’t, because there are no such plans, apart from routine punishment and persecution.

    If she got really serious, and effective, about helping people overcome drug, alcoholism and gambling addictions (Mandatory Pre-commitment anyone?) she’d get support from Wilkie and Lambie et al, but there would outrage from the pubs and clubs. The most socially depressed areas have the biggest gambling losses.

    https://indaily.com.au/news/2019/10/02/higher-dole-payments-would-go-to-drug-dealers-pubs-minister/

  3. Maude Lynne:

    I might be a little naive in this area, but given Newstart is such a pittance, how would they afford to do drugs, alcohol, gambling? I know one person on benefits, and after paying rent and necessities, he has nothing left. The minister is, I think, speaking with forked Tory tongue, and that’s putting it mildly.

  4. MD
    Sharehousing is the main way. Get rent assistance. Then nip 0ut for free breakfasts seven days a week. Use subsidized transport. Get free clothes at the Salvos.

  5. MD,
    yes, of course the overwhelming majority of NS recipients have no money for such things.
    But reality never gets in the way of a good prejudice.

  6. Mavis Davis
    The junkies and I will call them in this case to separate them from the unemployed.

    Junkies will receive the payment then spend it on whatever they are addicted too, whether that be drugs, grog or gambling. They then basically scrape threw the next fortnight until their next payment.

    Many of these people will have a third party appointed to try and manage their money so it lasts longer or at least goes towards their homeless shelter rent.

  7. Don’t buy any prepared food or fast foods. At all. Don’t buy drinks in cafes or pubs. Drink water. Fill up on cheap eats. Rolled oats are dirt cheap and wholesome, etc, etc, etc.

  8. Boerwar
    The problem there is often takeaway is cheaper than going to the supermarket and buying the ingredients to make the same dish. Telling an unemployed person they should not be able to buy a coffee is nannystate rubbish.

  9. M
    FFS.
    Someone asked me how they could afford drugs. I was providing free advice on how not to spend money when you don’t have a lot of it.

    Walk. You have the time. It is good for you.

    If you are not prepared to do what humans have done for 99.9% of their existence, which is to drink water, then by foregoing three cups of coffee at the cafe you can buy a month’s worth of instant. Invite your friends around for a cuppa instead of hanging out at the caf.

    You can always eat cheaper (and healthier) than at the takeaway if you buy in bulk and you buy unprepared, unpackaged ingredients. If you are in a big sharehouse and you get yourselves organised, for which, after all, you have plenty of time, group cooking is a great way of spinning out the dinero.

    If you know where to sniff them out you can pick up bargains where stuff is starting to near its use by date.

    Oh, and make sure you eat the all the peels you can get hold of. After you have washed them. Leaves of cabbages, caulis, and most peels, can go into a soup.

  10. Boerwar
    I gathered you were answering someone else and your comment or similar versions of it are often used whenever this issue comes up so i was commenting more generally.

  11. Gotta admit he’s good at deflection, eh? Mind you, the Speers question was too obvious.

    Katharine Murphy @murpharoo
    2m
    Were you played by Trump @David_Speers asks? It’s disappointing Labor have gone down this path, the PM says. He thinks @billshortenmp might have some unresolved bitterness #auspol

  12. M

    Fair enough. These discussions always remind me that at least to some extent perceptions of poverty are relative. My parents grew up in the Great Depression. Dad’s income as a young man was the equivalent of five cigarettes per week. Mum spent her teenage years in Holland when 50,000 people starved to death. Dad spent WW2 on the Burma Railroad where a third of his mates died. Migration often brings with it some periods of relative destitution and/or poverty. Like many, I spent four years of relative poverty as a uni student. The lessons drummed into us were resilience, resourcefulness and never whinging.

    I am not saying that these are appropriate benchmarks for unemployed Aussies in today’s world… merely that poverty is often a matter of perception. One of the bits of research that I found interesting had a finding that becoming poor tended to increase the likelihood that you would make poor choices.

    One of the very useful lessons I learned growing up with not a lot of material wealth (but plenty of social wealth) was to develop techniques for altering my state of mind so that I did not want unnecessary stuff. It still comes in useful when combatting conspicuous or wasteful consumption in my life today. I wear shoes out. That is to say, I wear them until repeated repairs make any further repairs impossible.. I wear my clothes out, often continuing to wear them when they are well-frayed, have holes in them. And so on and so forth. I don’t regard this as noble in any way but as being sensible. I do have a bit of a hoarding instinct in case things go seriously pear shaped. As they did three or four times in the lives of each of my parents.
    A pilfered jar of vegemite/marmite – a lick a day for him and his mate – was probably significant in saving his life on that Railroad.

  13. Were you played by Trump @David_Speers asks?

    Of course he was. Trump has a lifetime’s experience sizing up suckers and playing them like a fiddle.

  14. The problem there is often takeaway is cheaper than going to the supermarket and buying the ingredients to make the same dish.

    There have been studies done which have shown this not to be the case.

  15. Fessy
    That’s interesting and I think that would depend on what takeaway with something like pasta being cheaper from a supermarket but something with more ingredients might not be.

  16. Anyone else noticed Morrison is trying to perfect a supercilious Prime Minister looking down from on high, voice, lately? Bit of a catch in the throat, faux solemnity. Utterly repellent and sick-making.

  17. KayJay

    He’s been consorting with geologists (geo-scientists?) and insists that no one knows why the climate is changing, just as we don’t know why the sea went down so that his people were able to walk across to the north of Australia thousands of years ago.

  18. Boerwar

    He waffles, isn’t logical, it’s hard to work out what he really thinks, because he falls back to “nobody knows”. Karvelas was working hard and got nowhere as he didn’t even understand her questions.

  19. lizzie

    Oh ❗ So perhaps the gentleman in question is running for the title
    of
    Bullshit artist of the year (3rd division).

    I’m off the get a vitamin B12 shot and will therefore be full of beans tomorrow. I have to be brave because great grandson Arthur Percy (4 years) will be present and I don’t want him to find out too soon what a coward I am.

  20. Why do we suppose that people like Warren Mundine are intelligent in the first instance? He’s just another Scott Morrison. Not a very bright lightbulb but high on the rat cunning quotient.

    I also note that Morrison has identified him as one of those who he’d like to have take back a seat off Labor. Hence his Eddie Everywhere act. Fiona Phillips won’t be that easy to budge.

  21. Michael Tull
    7h
    Alarming & incredible that a massive decision to #privatise our nations visa system is decided by the Minister and doesn’t require Parliaments approval. Surely a decision of this magnitude & risk should be Parliament’s to make.

  22. As usual, the Coalition, if you believe what they say, are misreading what the problem is. The problem is that the economy creates insufficient jobs, not that some people on benefits take drugs or gamble.

    If you don’t believe what they say (which I don’t), they are distracting from the real issue by attacking the victims of their failure to manage the economy.

  23. Mundine is completely unprincipled. Having ratted on Labor, he was eminently suitable to be selected as Morrison’s Captain’s pick for Gilmore. Fortunately the electorate were not to be fooled by this useful idiot.

  24. Phasing out unemployment benefits, which it appears is what they Coalition want to do, would increase crime. Many unemployed would take to some sort of hustle to make ends meet, to support any addictions and just to get a bit of soending money.

    This would fit the Coalition’s aim of changing as many people as possible into micro-capitalists, but many of these hustles will be either quite illegal or not to be encouraged. Expect to see a rise in drug dealing, petty and not so petty crime and a boom in the sex industry if we continue doen this path.

  25. Phasing out unemployment benefits, which it appears is what they Coalition want to do, would increase crime. Many unemployed would take to some sort of hustle to make ends meet, to support any addictions and just to get a bit of soending money.
    ______
    Then they can stick them in jail and privatise their incarceration and get some campaign contribution kickbacks.

  26. Steve777
    When it comes to the unemployed, the Libs really don’t get it but in their world no one declares themselves to be unemployed so they wouldn’t know any except for the bum they see at the tram stop who is probably just a rich bloke that doesn’t like dressing up and yes I do know a rich bloke that gets around in old tardy clothing because he doesn’t care.

    They really do not see a difference between being unemployed and being a junkie because as i just wrote in their world no one is ever unemployed, its either a holiday or they are self-employed which is code for unemployed.

  27. Simon Katich @ #1292 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019 – 11:53 am

    Who was wanting to go to Japan? Some cheap flights with Jetstar….
    https://beatthatflight.com.au/index.php/2019/10/01/japan-on-jetstars-return-for-free-sale-includes-cherry-blossom-dates/

    I have no affiliation in any way with this product or the mob selling it. I take no responsibility for quality of the product nor if the product ends up in the Southern Ocean.

    I booked flights to Vietnam for my daughter and myself, to connect with an 18 day individually hosted itinerary. Plane was due to leave at 8.00 pm. At 5.30 am Jetstar emailed me to say that flight was cancelled, offering me a ‘replacement’ 2 days later, of 31 hours duration, via Dubai and Kuala Lumpur.

    Frantic action, by me, found us flights, via Taipei, $500 more expensive, to get us there on time. It took me 3 further hours of persistent phone calls to get Jetstar to refund the ‘cheap’ fares.

  28. BK @ #1394 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019 – 6:03 pm

    Phasing out unemployment benefits, which it appears is what they Coalition want to do, would increase crime. Many unemployed would take to some sort of hustle to make ends meet, to support any addictions and just to get a bit of soending money.
    ______
    Then they can stick them in jail and privatise their incarceration and get some campaign contribution kickbacks.

    Who in their right mind would have such a scheme in mind? Does this government want a revolution?
    Perhaps in the mind of the United Psychopaths (AK LNP) the four cardinal virtues must be expanded to include bastardry.

    ……But the greatest of these is love. Because of this reference, a group of seven attributes is sometimes listed by adding the four cardinal virtues (prudence, temperance, fortitude, justice) and three theological virtues (faith, hope, charity).

    Plus the new virtue of bastardry.

  29. I booked flights to Vietnam for my daughter and myself, to connect with an 18 day individually hosted itinerary.

    Tell me more yabba. Where did you go? Who organised the indiv hosted tour (you or a tour company – which one)? Would you take children on something like that?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *