Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The fourth Newspoll since its wrong call at the election continues to credit the Coalition with only a modest lead on two-party preferred, with the minor parties continue to lift and Scott Morrison recording the opposite of a US visit bounce.

The fourth Newspoll since the federal election credits the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead, unchanged on the last poll three weeks ago, with both major parties down on the primary vote – the Coalition by one to 42%, and Labor by two to 33%. The Greens and One Nation are both up a point, the former to 13% – their best result from Newspoll since 2015 – and the latter to 6%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have deteriorated, either despite or because of his activities in the United States last week, his approval down two to 47% and disapproval up four to 43%. Anthony Albanese has bounced back four on approval to 39% after a six-point drop last time, but the report in The Australian does not relate his disapproval rating (UPDATE: Steady at 40%). Morrison’s preferred prime minister reading goes from 48-28 to 50-31, as respondents apparently becoming more inclined to pick a side.

The poll was presumably conducted as usual from Thursday to Sunday – no sample size is provided, but the norm is around 1600. More to follow.

UPDATE: The sample was 1658, of which 900 came from online surveys and 758 from automated phone polling. Also featured is a question on which relationship Australia should prioritise out of the United States and China, who came in at 56% and 25% respectively. The split was 70-18 among Coalition supporters, 46-32 for Labor, 60-24 among men and 51-26 among women.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,439 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 10:10 pm
    So nothing from The SmearStralian on their methodology, may as well be pulling these numbers out of Simon Benson’s arse


  2. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 10:11 pm

    sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 10:10 pm
    So nothing from The SmearStralian on their methodology, may as well be pulling these numbers out of Simon Benson’s arse

    Exactly. Without methodology they are just random numbers. Based on recent experience, the key to winning is to be behind in the polls for three year. Labor has a good start.

  3. “Apropos of global heating, I verily believe that science has failed to prosecute its case well.”

    To be direct i am getting properly sick of people banging on and on with this sort of rinse and repeat complete and utter bullshit.

    Just because those who are correct on a topic, or actually have viable policy that would be good and fair for the majority “cant get their message across” is not always because those are not actually doing the best job they can.

    Particularly where they are up against VERY well funded vested interests who have the much easier job of telling people things that are the sweet lies they actually want to hear.

  4. #Newspoll Albanese: Approve 39 (+4) Disapprove 40 (0) #

    #Newspoll Morrison: Approve 47 (-2) Disapprove 43 (+4) #auspol

    Maybe Morrison’s trip wasn’t as ‘well received’ as Fran Kelly was promoting this morning?

    And clearly, the people are warming to Albo!

  5. sprocket_ says:
    Maybe Morrison’s trip wasn’t as ‘well received’ as Fran Kelly was promoting this morning?
    ______________________
    What is this obsession with everything Fran Kelly? In any case, by saying ‘well received’ I assume she meant by the Trump White House, seeing that they are the ones ‘receiving’ him. Which was clearly the case.

  6. Assuming a sample size of around 1600, all numbers are within margin of error. Simon Benson either doesn’t understand that or is just toeing the company line.

    EDIT: re Sprocket @10:24. Albo’s increase in approval and Morrison’s disaporoval may be significant. Bensen must have overlooked that.

  7. I took Fran Kelly’s “well received” means by the Australian public, but have only seen second hand reports so I’m happy to be corrected on that.

    Morrison was well received by Trump as one of the few world leaders to embrace him and his administration, unlike most leaders in the developed, democratic world, who are sensibly keeping their distance from a US President who is a clown, an imbecile, a con artist, a serial liar, a bully, a racist, a narcistist, a serial sex pest, probably mentally unstable, probably a crook and probably a psychpath.

  8. sprocket_ @ #1283 Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 8:15 pm

    Wales scored 2 intercept tries. Australia’s 35 year old winger failed to get in camera shot.

    Australia’s 35 year old winger scored a try, and made 5 effective tackles, missing none. The Welsh scored two tries to Australia’s three. One Welsh try was from an offside intercept, the other from a kick to the corner. You are full of it.

    At two points during the match, the Australians were given five (that’s five) penalty advantages in a row from Welsh professional fouls, while within five metres of the Welsh try line, but no yellow card was issued. Miraculous.

  9. I am taking all these numbers with a grain of salt, or half a kilo, after the Federal election result.

    Yeah, and for that result, I still blame stupid low-info voters who just love having an authority figure telling them it will be all ok in the end, as long as they snap to attention on command.
    ww
    After all, it beats thinking.

    On matters domestic.
    I am still trying to cope with this drastic change in my life. Without my Mum to care for now, I am a bit lost. My doc has sent me to see a psychologist which is probably a good thing, There seems to be no purpose to anything really. It seems all ends in grief.

    The dogs of my life seem to be the only constant, I always have at least two living with me.

    What is it with humans who would intentionally or by deliberate neglect, inflict grief on other humans? Our Evil Potato inflicts grief by letting Asylum Seekers suffer and die in our revolting detention centres, and by harming the mental health of children in detention.

    Why do some people admire such monsters? Isn’t there already enough grief in this world, that we create more?

    End of evening ramble.

  10. Carrying over from the previous thread, in defence of scientists, there are two separate components to science. There is the method and there is the purpose. Scientists are very good at the former. Politicians are responsible for the latter. As for polling, it’s still chicken guts.

  11. UI,

    The climate strike/Greta effect will likely have helped the Green number. So sad.

    Yes, very likely it will have helped increase support for the Greens in Australia. But, from the point of view of the Labor / social democracy movement, tis is probably a good thing.

    When I was in Germany during the EU elections, Greta Thunberg, together with a coordinated “get out the young people” campaign, stopped the European far right from becoming the dominant power bloc. This is generally a good thing. On the other hand, I did note that the German Greens (in Bonn) were very white, and very well off. The SPD, who I would have voted for, were far more multicultural, and far less “righteous”, but sadly they went backwards.

    But, the “Greens” label in the EU got out the young to vote, and headed off the strong far right push. It will be the same in Australia.

    While I lament the split of the left, harking back to the bad old days when in 1961 Communists kept the Menzies government in power, and when Gough Whitlam had to bang the heads of the Victorian ALP left together, and tell them to STFU so that Labor could actually win a Federal election, I actually do not think it is the Labor /Greens / Socialist Alliance internecine warfare that is keeping the Coalition in government.

  12. Douglas and Milko says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 11:16 pm

    While I lament the split of the left, harking back to the bad old days when in 1961 Communists kept the Menzies government in power…
    ____________________________
    LOL. WTF?

  13. D&M….

    I despair. I really do. The split in reformist opinions, strategies and goals is enough to keep the counter-reformists in power for as long as the split persists.

    Intransigence is winning. It usually does. The beneficiaries in Australia are the Right.

  14. Davidwh says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 11:22 pm
    Leading 51/49 in the polls is a Clayton’s lead based on recent history.

    Applying some Bayesian probability to the numbers, 51/49 is very safe territory for the Liberals.

  15. WB knows more, but for me, until the full methodology is revealed and the (raw) data that were collected are too, polling isn’t worth expending statistics. Current polling is like alchemy. Though if YouGov manages to herd pollsters to a common open methodology that might change.

  16. Foley was Australia’s worst player. Looked like he didn’t belong out there.
    Todays game and the Japan v Ireland games killed the AFL GF for entertainment. There is something about playing for your country that a fake franchise like GWS or a community suburban team like Richmond can’t begin to match.

  17. Diogenes
    says:
    Monday, September 30, 2019 at 12:11 am
    Foley was Australia’s worst player. Looked like he didn’t belong out there.
    Todays game and the Japan v Ireland games killed the AFL GF for entertainment. There is something about playing for your country that a fake franchise like GWS or a community suburban team like Richmond can’t begin to match.
    ________________________________________
    there is nothing like the tribalism of the big Melbourne clubs playing each other on the MCG in front of 80 thousand. Your dusty nationalism doesn’t cut it.

  18. Puffy

    On matters domestic.
    I am still trying to cope with this drastic change in my life. Without my Mum to care for now, I am a bit lost. My doc has sent me to see a psychologist which is probably a good thing, There seems to be no purpose to anything really. It seems all ends in grief.

    The dogs of my life seem to be the only constant, I always have at least two living with me.

    I am so glad you have your dogs. I actually think of you often, because I am in a somewhat similar situation. My difference is that my mother does not need me as a full time carer yet, only a lot of my time. But that will change soon, and weirdly, I will feel her loss more keenly than that of my father, who I adored, when he died of a heart attack when I was 21 and he was 49.

    As you say, everything seems to end in grief, and as we get older we seem (I think) to feel things more keenly.

    I also struggle with the existential question of why we should keep going. I guess my answer (and probably wrong!) is that we bring joy to the lives of our dogs (and cats), and a walk with my lovely friends always makes me smile.

    I think we also give to the people around us by being there. I remember the people in my life who made a difference to me – a gift of a book, being interested in what I had to say, and weirdly, giving me a full set of the Children’s Encyclopaedia (1938 version). I read it from cover to cover, and loved the puzzles, and I still remember bits of it today.

    I particularly feel for you tonight. My wonderfully active and knowledgeable Father-in-Law, who when I was teaching computational physics told me about his use of an analogue Fourier analysis, by adding sine waves together on various transparencies on an overhead projector (Leeds, 1962, I think – to understand cyclic failure of the slings to launch planes on aircraft carriers), is not well.

    He is in what I would call Concord repat, although it is now a NSW Health hospital. He is 96 years old, and has until recently been in the peak of health. But things are not looking good. Rather than talking about engineering with him, I am now helping him eat and drink. I think he is actually happy about us still being able to connect – he had a twinkle in his eye that I was able to pilfer a few new medical supplies for him from the storeroom before I left this afternoon – I really do have no shame.

  19. Nath,

    Douglas and Milko says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 11:16 pm

    While I lament the split of the left, harking back to the bad old days when in 1961 Communists kept the Menzies government in power…
    ____________________________
    LOL. WTF?

    Tonight is not the best night I have ever had in my life, but I thought when I posted this comment that I should provide a reference. I will find one, but probably tomorrow.

  20. I will also, when I can, comment on the link posted here las Saturday on a Nature paper on climate science being retracted: https://retractionwatch.com/2019/09/25/nature-paper-on-ocean-warming-retracted/

    This was raised by a few posters, but no one really made any comments apart from posting links.

    The retraction of a climate science publication from Nature is important news. My quick reading of the situation is that a disagreement about the way in which the errors / uncertainties have been calculated is being used to debunk the whole premise of the paper. But I feel strongly enough about this to trawl through the research / paper trail to provide informed commentary.

  21. Nath,

    I will fact check and then classify my claim about the communists keeping Menzies in power in 1961 as overblown hyperbole, but, they did not help:

    For a long time, the 1961 election remained the closest Federal election in Australian history, with the Coalition being reduced to a one-seat majority. The election was decided in the seats of Bruce near Melbourne and Moreton near Brisbane.

    In Bruce, Labor’s Keith Ewert led Liberal Billy Snedden on the first count, but on the second count more than two-thirds of the DLP’s preferences flowed to Snedden, enough to give him the victory.[1]

    However, the Coalition was not ensured of a sixth term in government until Jim Killen won Moreton by only 130 votes after receiving 93 vital Communist preferences. [2] Labor actually won 62 seats, the same as the Coalition. However, without Bruce, the best Labor could hope for was a hung parliament, since two of its seats were in ACT and Northern Territory. At the time, territorial MPs had limited voting rights and were not counted for the purpose of determining who was to form government. The record for the closest election in Australia’s history was eventually beaten by the 2010 election, which was a 72-72 seat draw.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_Australian_federal_election

  22. Morning all. So being photographed next to Donald Trump does not help your public standing? Who would have guessed?

    This article highlights that we are now the world’s second largest weapon importer. Quite an achievement for a geographically isolated nation that is not st war with anyone except journalists. Our ludicrously large defence build up has not created an employment bonanza. The constant flip flopping of production from one marginal seat to another has not allowed the creation of any significant local capability, except for ASC,which is about to be shafted and the sub work sent to Perth. This means in a real war we would have trouble maintaining or repairing all these expensive toys. Surely, this is one of the biggest policy failures in the past decade?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-30/australia-worlds-second-biggest-weapons-importer-behind-saudi/11558762

  23. Socrates

    This makes me angry and ashamed and Melissa Price is an airhead. Those who make money from wars are not admirable. All she does is stick to the script.

    “A strong, exporting industrial base generates economic growth and creates jobs, which is why we’re striving to be in the world’s best.”

  24. There is something about BoJo….

    ‘Boris Johnson’s first day at Conservative party conference as prime minister was overshadowed by allegations of sexual misbehaviour, as Downing Street was forced to deny allegations that he had groped a female journalist.

    After days of revelations about his relationship with American tech entrepreneur Jennifer Arcuri, whose company received a public grant, Johnson was accused of grabbing the thighs of two women at a lunch while he was editor of the Spectator magazine.

    The Sunday Times journalist Charlotte Edwardes claimed that at a private lunch in 1999, Johnson groped her leg under a table, grabbing “enough inner flesh beneath his fingers” to make her “sit upright”. She also alleged that he did the same to another woman at the same event.

    Downing Street initially declined to comment on Sunday; but after senior ministers were peppered with questions about the alleged incident, a No 10 spokesperson said: “The allegation is untrue.”

    Sources said the quote related specifically to the allegation that Johnson put his hand on Edwardes’ knee.

    The prime minister is said to be furious at the claim, which Downing Street insiders privately described as “bollocks” and “nonsense”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/29/no-10-denies-claims-boris-johnson-squeezed-thigh-journalist-charlotte-edwardes


  25. UI says:
    Sunday, September 29, 2019 at 10:41 pm

    The climate strike/Greta effect will likely have helped the Green number. So sad.

    Given it is a vote for no action, yes.

  26. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Shane Wright says it’s odd on that the RBA will drop interest rates again tomorrow.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rba-poised-to-cut-rates-further-even-as-house-prices-surge-20190929-p52vwz.html
    ‘Wow! In a rather extraordinary contribution Greg Jericho launches into Morrison, saying he has demonstrated a Trumpesque ability to fudge, mislead and obfuscate
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/29/scott-morrison-is-trying-to-turn-himself-into-the-ocker-trump-australian-media-beware
    The best you can say about Prime Minister Scott Morrison is that he doesn’t get it. Graeme McCleay criticises Morrison’s condescending response to kids and climate
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/morrison,13153
    It seems the tide has turned in the US with the public now in favour of the impeachment of Trump.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-public-now-back-impeachment-inquiry-against-trump-20190929-p52w16.html
    Latika Bourke reports that Julia Gillard is set to speak at Boris Johnson’s first Conservative Party conference as Prime Minister where she will join a panel to discuss international aid and education, in her capacity as chair of the Global Partnership for Education.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/julia-gillard-to-speak-at-johnson-s-first-tory-conference-as-pm-20190929-p52vvw.html
    Cait Kelly reports that nervous residents in a fire-ravaged region of northern NSW fear dams will dry up and life-saving water be even more hard to come by if blazes break out again.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/nsw/2019/09/29/nsw-fire-tenterfield/
    The NSW government has announced a sweeping support of new clean energy projects in the state. One such plan is to use abandoned mines near Broken Hill to store energy in compressed air.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/clean-energy-projects-win-state-support-20190929-p52w0e.html
    Soaring iron ore and gold prices are set to boost federal and state budgets says Shane Wright.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/resources-on-track-to-deliver-record-282-billion-in-exports-20190929-p52vwg.html
    Industry Super Australia chairman Greg Combet has slammed Deborah Ralston’s proposal to make super voluntary for low-income workers and called on the Morrison government to reconsider her appointment to the retirement inquiry.
    https://outline.com/m4arcq
    Eryk Bagshaw raises the prospect of an ABC tax (aka licence fee).
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/time-for-an-abc-tv-tax-20190929-p52vz5.html
    Lisa Visentin outline the Nationals’ ‘critical role’ in abortion decriminalisation in NSW.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-nationals-critical-role-in-abortion-decriminalisation-20190927-p52vi4.html
    Karen Maley in the AFR writes that bankers, who have spent the past 18 months shielding themselves from a barrage of unrelenting and scathing criticism, could scarcely believe their ears last week as senior politicians abruptly changed tack last week, and tried to cajole them into lending for the sake of the economy.
    https://outline.com/PT54WJ
    Luke Henriques-Gomes reveals yet another Human Services disaster as a single mother is being pursued over debt caused by a Centrelink mistake and a rather bewildering AAT ruling.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/30/its-so-draining-single-mother-pursued-over-debt-caused-by-centrelink-mistake
    The Coalition Government’s treatment of the poor is reminiscent of past, outdated attitudes, writes Bilal Cleland as he tells us how certain companies profit from cashless welfare card
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-poor-worse-off-while-companies-profit-from-cashless-welfare-card,13148
    Dana McCauley writes that Doctors and nurses are banding together to call for immediate action to fix the nation’s aged-care system, warning elderly Australians will continue to suffer if the issue is sidelined until the royal commission hands down its findings in November 2020.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/doctors-and-nurses-join-forces-to-demand-action-to-fix-aged-care-20190926-p52v6t.html
    More Australians are submitting false information in order obtain mortgages despite banks promising tougher lending checks in the wake of a royal commission reports Nick Toscano.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/liar-loans-banks-failing-to-curb-mortgages-based-on-lies-says-ubs-20190929-p52vx5.html
    Sean Kelly explains the key difference between nationalism in the US and Australia. This is a good article!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-key-difference-between-nationalism-in-the-us-and-australia-20190929-p52vwm.html
    Australia has enacted 82 anti-terror laws since 2001. But tough laws alone won’t make us safer says this article in The Conversation.
    https://theconversation.com/australia-has-enacted-82-anti-terror-laws-since-2001-but-tough-laws-alone-wont-make-us-safer-123521
    Bridget McKenzie has insisted the Morrison government’s support programs for farmers during the drought doesn’t contravene any of the nation’s free-trade agreements.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6411359/drought-aid-not-a-trade-deal-breach/?cs=14231
    Donald Trump’s army of surrogates, led by his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, went into battle yesterday as the president sought to fight back against a rapidly intensifying impeachment inquiry.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/sep/29/rudy-giuliani-donald-trump-ukraine-impeachment-inquiry
    It’s open season for political thugs and the Tories gave them the pass says Nick Cohen.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/29/it-is-open-season-for-political-thugs-and-the-tories-gave-them-the-pass

    And now a particularly sparse Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe welcomes Morrison home.

    Pat Campbell in the Oval Office.

    From an unhappy Sean Leahy.

    From a hubristic Johannes Leak in The Australian.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/7f97d3c8ea7775723b7c84c7acdce51b?width=1024

    From the US




  27. Douglas and Milko says:
    Monday, September 30, 2019 at 12:53 am

    ….
    But I feel strongly enough about this to trawl through the research / paper trail to provide informed commentary.

    Will await with interest, my take, a systematic error was treated as random. This would for sure alter the result.
    That unlike this poll nonsense,enough information was published to find the error in the error calculation, proving once again science is robust.
    The paper is going to be published again with the error corrected, I await that with interest also.
    That the denial crowd are going to attempt to use an error in an error calculation to debunk science.
    Nature doesn’t care, global warming goes on.

  28. Cait Kelly reports that nervous residents in a fire-ravaged region of northern NSW fear dams will dry up and life-saving water be even more hard to come by if blazes break out again.

    They HAVE broken out again near Tenterfield. 🙁

  29. Here’s something to brighten your Monday morning with. Greens up and far-right down. Thats what we like to hear!

    ***

    Austrian elections: support for far-right collapses

    Support for Austria’s Freedom party (FPÖ) has plunged by more than a third as voters punished the far-right group in national elections for a corruption scandal that brought down the government.

    The former chancellor Sebastian Kurz, 33, looks certain to reclaim his position as the youngest leader in the world after his People’s party (ÖVP) secured 37.1% of the vote – its best result since 2002.

    The Green party was the other big winner on Sunday, achieving its best result at national elections with 14%. The centre-left Social Democratic party (SPÖ) plummeted to a historically low 21.7% but was still the second-biggest party.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/29/austrian-elections-exit-polls-collapse-far-right-support-sebastian-kurz-victory

  30. grace pettigrew @broomstick33
    42s

    #RNBreakfast Geraldine interviews Littleproud: “if our forefathers had not built dams the Murray would now be running dry” .. this is the standard of bollocks that the ABC is walking past #auspol

  31. PTMD,
    I have just read what you wrote last night and all I can offer you by way of advice is to get out of the house! Staying cooped up only serves to magnify the feelings you are working through right now.

    So, just off the top of my head, maybe you could find out if your local animal shelter is nearby? They are always looking for volunteers to walk the dogs that are housed there. Don’t worry, the prisoners on day release or Work for the Dole unfortunates are usually the ones tasked with cleaning the cages, for their ‘sins’. Or contact the RSPCA to see if you can help them out.

    Join the local community association.

    Go for swims at the local pool during the summer months, or take an aquarobics class.

    In short, find out what’s out there to do in your local area and, get out of the house! 🙂

  32. “Europe is supposed to be a green stronghold, but it looks like the same shit. A big enough vote to prevent action on climate change.”

    ***

    You used the wrong word. “Prevent” should be replaced with “DEMAND” in capitals, because that’s what Greens voters are doing. We demand action on climate change. We don’t support environmental vandalism like the ALP (Adani Labor Party).

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