Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The fourth Newspoll since its wrong call at the election continues to credit the Coalition with only a modest lead on two-party preferred, with the minor parties continue to lift and Scott Morrison recording the opposite of a US visit bounce.

The fourth Newspoll since the federal election credits the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead, unchanged on the last poll three weeks ago, with both major parties down on the primary vote – the Coalition by one to 42%, and Labor by two to 33%. The Greens and One Nation are both up a point, the former to 13% – their best result from Newspoll since 2015 – and the latter to 6%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have deteriorated, either despite or because of his activities in the United States last week, his approval down two to 47% and disapproval up four to 43%. Anthony Albanese has bounced back four on approval to 39% after a six-point drop last time, but the report in The Australian does not relate his disapproval rating (UPDATE: Steady at 40%). Morrison’s preferred prime minister reading goes from 48-28 to 50-31, as respondents apparently becoming more inclined to pick a side.

The poll was presumably conducted as usual from Thursday to Sunday – no sample size is provided, but the norm is around 1600. More to follow.

UPDATE: The sample was 1658, of which 900 came from online surveys and 758 from automated phone polling. Also featured is a question on which relationship Australia should prioritise out of the United States and China, who came in at 56% and 25% respectively. The split was 70-18 among Coalition supporters, 46-32 for Labor, 60-24 among men and 51-26 among women.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,439 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. In the Sam Maiden New Daily article linked in the dawn patrol George Papadopoulos is quoted saying:

    “Downer was a fool. I played him the entire meeting that I knew was designed to spy on my energy-related work and then to ask a bizarre last-minute question about Clinton-Russia. The transcripts will prove it all, folks. They exist. The Australians already flipped on him,”

    If the transcript exists and has been handed over this should get even more interesting indeed.

  5. Meanwhile. One other whistleblower has been busy……

    David Enrich
    @davidenrich
    NEW: The son of a dead
    @DeutscheBank
    executive — armed with hundreds of confidential bank files — has been secretly helping the FBI and the House Intelligence Committee investigate the bank and
    @realDonaldTrump
    .
    Me and My Whistleblower
    Deutsche Bank. North Korea. The Intelligence Committee’s investigation of the president. Again and again, one man has taken his trove of secret documents — and uncanny nose for scandal — to the…
    nytimes.com
    10:46

  6. Morning all and thanks BK for today’s wrap.

    I think Crowe has it right. What would possess Morrison to get Australia involved in American domestic issues, much less an issue involving Trump’s obsession with the 2016 election?

  7. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/01/australias-vast-carbon-sink-releasing-millions-of-tonnes-of-co2-back-into-atmosphere

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/02/nsw-considers-laws-to-stop-courts-and-planners-blocking-coalmines-on-climate-grounds

    Good Morning.

    The LNP are acting. Being more environmentally friendly than Labor. This is the same state that just resurrected Jim Molan’s political career.

    Ask yourself Labor how far right do you want to be?

  8. Vic:

    There is also another whistleblower who has reportedly revealed that Trump has someone on the inside of the tax office trying to ‘fix’ his tax records.

  10. ‘ Being more environmentally friendly than Labor..’

    Er, no, guytaur.

    Can’t read the article (paywall) but the headline says NSW is trying to make it easier to approve coal mines.

  11. …and the Fed Square article is from 2018.

    Regardless, the Vic Libs do this in Opposition. Ballieu got up by being lefter than Brumby — in the lead up to the campaign. Once he was elected, he reverted to Kennetism.

    The Coalition do this federally, too – offer the electorate “Labor’s policy with a set of steak knives” (cf the NBN, NDIS) and then show their true colours once elected.

  15. ‘Terminator says:
    Wednesday, October 2, 2019 at 7:42 am

    In the Sam Maiden New Daily article linked in the dawn patrol George Papadopoulos is quoted saying:

    “Downer was a fool. I played him the entire meeting that I knew was designed to spy on my energy-related work and then to ask a bizarre last-minute question about Clinton-Russia. The transcripts will prove it all, folks. They exist. The Australians already flipped on him,”

    If the transcript exists and has been handed over this should get even more interesting indeed.’

    If, for sure. Also for sure, Papadopoulos is an totally untrustworthy ex jailbird.

  16. ‘frednk says:
    Wednesday, October 2, 2019 at 7:45 am

    Conservation groups say the latest environmental impact statement (EIS) for the federal government’s Snowy 2.0 project shows work on the site will have dire consequences for land around it.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/10/01/snowy-hydro-2-0-environment-report-criticised/

    I wonder what their proposed solution is, burn more coal or go back to the cave?’

    Indeed. Global Warming, too many people and too much consumption gets us to the place where we only have bad choices left.

  18. So what if Pompeo refuses to comply with the subpoena? There’s not a lot Congress can do, because its oversight of the executive branch of government is predicated upon an executive branch of government that respects this oversight. However..

    We know of one tool Congress still has, and it’s pretty blunt: inherent contempt. Some top Democrats have been talking about using this for weeks. It is a long-dormant power for Congress to fine or jail officials who don’t comply. It hasn’t been used in over a century, but when it has, Congress has detained administration officials for not complying with it. Congress doesn’t have its own jail, so lawmakers could try to use the D.C. jail. As you can see, this idea gets pretty extreme pretty quickly.

    The idea of inherent contempt isn’t just on the table for the most liberal Democrats. A group of seven freshman Democrats with military records and/or national security backgrounds wrote an op-ed in The Washington Post last week saying Trump’s actions, if true, are impeachable, and they brought up this idea.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/10/01/what-can-congress-do-if-mike-pompeo-wont-cooperate-with-its-impeachment-inquiry/

    The fact that a mechanism which hasn’t been deployed for over 100 years is now being considered by elected members says it all about how much Trump has debased the country’s institutions and democracy.

  22. A full length feature movie wouldn’t be able to cover all the elements of this shit show!

    Trump Russia Hits
    @TrumpRussiaHits
    ·
    43m
    “The Daily Beast reached Stephan Roh, Mifsud’s Swiss lawyer, by phone Tuesday who said he hadn’t seen his client “for quite some time” but that he “doubted” he would show his face in Rome.”

    Because he’s as dead as a doornail
    Quote Tweet

    Noah Shachtman
    @NoahShachtman
    · 1h
    NEW: Barr’s counter-investigation of the Mueller probe goes international. The AG just went to Rome to listen to a deposition from shadowy Russiagate figure Joseph Mifsud. https://thedailybeast.com/barr-went-to-r

  23. And this.

    @SaysDana #BarrIsTrumpsPoodle
    @SaysDana
    ·
    1h
    NEW
    from the Miami Herald.
    Looks like Jeff Epstein is still in the news along with a Saudi, a Real Estate Investor named Farkas and ties that put them in the same circles as Kushner and Trump
    Go figure! Thanks
    @jkbjournalist
    for a great article.
    For Jeffrey Epstein, one island hideaway wasn’t enough. How he stealthily acquired a second
    Alleged sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein owned Little St. James Island in the Virgin Islands. He wanted the island right next door, despite the reluctance of its owners to sell to him.
    miamiherald.com

  24. guytaur

    I want Labor to make rational policy based on the evidence and the advice of experts.

    I don’t care if that ends up making them ‘left’ or ‘right’ or ‘centrist’.

  25. Answer: our soft touch banking regulation is a dismal policy failure. Banks here are allowed to maintain unacceptably high profit levels, even when times are bad. That is not capitalism.

    You have to fuel the franked dividend streams, unending streams of dividends don’t just happen, you’ve got to manufacture them.

  26. A full length feature movie wouldn’t be able to cover all the elements of this shit show!

    LOL! I’ve often said the Trump presidency has forever ruined future novels or movies about the White House and presidential corruption.

  27. Zoomster

    Good. Then you will be advocating the Stop Adani move within the Labor party because courts are evidence based. Not left right or centre.

  28. “The notion that ‘men like Trump’ are ‘rattled’ by Thunberg et al is ludicrous.”

    ***

    That’s where you’re wrong. Trump may be the present but she is the future. A future full of confident, progressive, modern, empowered women like Thunberg is what conservatives fear most of all. The fact that she’s out there schooling them at such a young age would be absolutely driving them nuts. She represents everything that they hate.

  30. https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/why-my-coal-miner-father-would-applaud-the-global-climate-strike-20190914-p52ra8.html

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CMWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.couriermail.com.au%2Fnews%2Fqueensland%2Fqueensland-warned-time-to-move-on-from-coal%2Fnews-story%2F17a1daa34ea3ccf86dad991918b1e51b&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21suffix=56-b

    Even the Courier Mail has warned coals time is over.

  31. Urban Wronski

    After publicly suggesting that soldiers shoot migrants if they threw rocks, the president backed off when his staff told him that was illegal. But later in a meeting, aides recalled, he suggested that they shoot migrants in the legs to slow them down.
    …
    That’s not allowed either, they told him.
    ________________________
    ScoMo knows how to pick a stable genius for a mate.

  32. AFDO @AfdoOffice
    The Australian Government has been accused of being heartless after Health Minister, @GregHuntMP
    told #Thalidomide survivors they shouldn’t expect a response to the Senate Inquiry Report released in March 2019, until mid-2020. #AusPol

    A comment: @SisterOMalley
    Did they delay so @JoshFrydenberg could announce his surplus?

  34. guytaur

    ‘Then you will be advocating the Stop Adani move within the Labor party because courts are evidence based. Not left right or centre.’

    Sorry, you’ll have to explain that one. What courts are you referring to?

  35. A good sign from the ABC.

    Josh Frydenberg was on talking about the economy. He went to the Labor is stuff. Interviewer cut him off.

    “I am not asking about Labor. I am asking about you”.

    I was not paying full attention so can’t tell you which program Newsradio got it from or interviewers name.

  36. Zoomster

    NSW courts. They made a decision about the climate. Having a legal impact.
    That’s why the LNP want to legislate the evidence out of existence. Can’t have the courts using expert evidence getting in the way of their coal donors.

  37. And Philip Lowe admits the world’s central banks are fighting against a global appetite to save, which is far stronger than the appetite to invest. This presents some tricky choices for savers.

    At best, monetary policy can hope to increase the private’s sector spending of its existing income. Fiscal policy can increase people’s spending out of an increased income. The evidence on interest rate cuts is that they make little difference to people’s spending. Income increases, on the other hand, can make a significant difference.

  40. This is your Social Services Minister speaking. Defending the taxpayer, not the needy.

    Senator Ruston argued that increasing the rate of Newstart was a simplistic solution to challenging problems, especially when 35 per cent of taxpayer spending was on welfare.

    “We can’t just keep on adding money to this bucket, because we’re not making a difference,” she said.

    “Giving (people) more money would do absolutely nothing … probably all it would do is give drug dealers more money and give pubs more money.

    “What we need to do is take a proactive approach to how we look at social welfare, look at social cohorts and what those cohorts need.

    “We’ve got to be fair to the people who pay for it.”

    https://www.murrayvalleystandard.com.au/story/6413126/child-support-system-newstart-push-single-mothers-into-poverty/?cs=1527

  41. guytaursays:
    Wednesday, October 2, 2019 at 8:52 am

    Zoomster

    Cute. They did make a ruling about coal mining. Adani will be a coal mine.

    No, they made judgments regarding certain coal mines.

  43. guytaur

    …even environmental groups stressed at the time that the decision was specific to that particular case and would not set a precedent.

    I’m not pro-Adani, btw. I don’t believe, however, that it can be legally blocked.

    Labor’s position on Adani is irrelevant, anyway. It is now out of Queensland’s hands, and it’s at least two years – or several millenia, depending who you talk to – before Federal Labor can do anything about it.

    I suggest that, if people’s concerns are stopping emissions, that attention therefore be shifted to persuading the Labor government in Victoria to fast track the closure of brown coal fired electricity, which would be far more beneficial to the environment generally and emissions reduction in particular.

  44. guytaur
    Coal is finished, Labor is doing it’s best to make sure the Greens can never again block progress when it comes to dealing with the difficulties this will create.

    Labor should because the Greens can’t.

  45. Interesting how the BBC overnight, when reporting on Trump, preface any of his comments by saying WTTE “without any supporting evidence, President Trump said…”

  46. Zoomster

    Funny. NSW was able to legally block coal mining.
    Queensland Labor can do the same. Stop coming up with excuses.
    Last I looked Labor was in government in Queensland

  47. Rachael Bade
    @rachaelmbade
    IMPEACHMENT LATEST: After
    @SecPompeo
    told Ds his officials won’t comply w/their requests, State employees appear to be DEFYING Pompeo.

    1st: Volker says he will testify. Yovanovitch too.

    & now
    @karoun

    @John_Hudson
    report the State IG is coming 2 Hill tomorrow to turn over docs

  48. FredNK

    It’s called reality. It’s a Queensland Labor Government
    Not a Greens one.
    Stop whining over citizens calling a government to account.

    Edit: Last I looked the Climate Council is not the Greens Party.


  49. zoomster says:
    Wednesday, October 2, 2019 at 8:59 am
    ….
    I suggest that, if people’s concerns are stopping emissions, that attention therefore be shifted to persuading the Labor government in Victoria to fast track the closure of brown coal fired electricity, which would be far more beneficial to the environment generally and emissions reduction in particular.

    And even there, the issues is not that closure will occur, the issue is we have to solve and solve quickly how to deal with an electrical grid dependent on very high levels of renewable energy.

  50. FredNK, Soc,

    No probs, you found the right paper by Paul. He’s a clever guy, and I get the feeling he had been constrained by his position as chief economist at AGL. Now he’s free to speak his mind.

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