Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

The Coalition finally records an opinion poll lead, as Newspoll breaks the post-election ice.

The ten-week silence of Newspoll – and indeed Australian polling in general, so far as voting intention is concerned – has ended with a result of 53-47 to the Coalition, as reported by The Australian. To this, naturally, must be added the qualification that the pollster never once recorded the newly re-elected government with a lead in the entire three years of the previous parliamentary term. The poll has the Coalition at 44% of the primary vote (41.4% at the election), Labor at 33% (33.3%) and the Greens at 11% (10.4%). The report seems to be saying One Nation is at 3%, which compares with the 3.1% they scored at the election when contesting 59 out of 151 seats.

The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison’s approval at a new high of 51%, up five on the pre-election poll, and down nine on disapproval to 36%. Anthony Albanese’s Newspoll ratings are 39% approval and 36% disapproval, which is a) “the first net positive approval rating for an Opposition leader since 2015”, as noted in the report since Simon Benson, b) the worst Newspoll debut for an Opposition Leader since Andrew Peacock in 1989, as illustrated in this earlier post, and c) the equal lowest uncommitted rating for an Opposition Leader on debut, perhaps mitigating b) a little. Morrison leads 48-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-38 in the pre-election poll, which we can now presume was flattering to Bill Shorten.

No indication at this point as to whether and how Newspoll is doing anything differently. Certainly it looks like business as usual to the extent that the poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1601, with The Australian’s report trumpeting a 2.4% margin of error that is less than the size of its error at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

911 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 16 of 19
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  2. Lizzie

    It does work. Lol! Unless there is something stuck in the filter pipe which can also be opened and looked into.

    Easy to follow instructions on YouTube.

  3. lizzie

    😆 In the article I linked above re Error E3.
    .
    I have tried unplugging the washer for 30 minutes but that did not help.

  4. Amy Remeikis: It also looks like Scott Morrison used the “unfunded empathy” line in 2015, in relation to Gillian Triggs, the former human rights commissioner.

  7. lizzie @ #746 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 4:29 pm

    C@t

    I don’t know the correct name of the type of argument Wilson was using, but I recognised it. He’s probably good at debating. It’s the one where you take the opposition’s point (Husic: there should be additional checks by a human, not just a computer) and home in on one aspect, exaggerating it and then dismissing the argument (Wilson: has Husic any idea how long it would take if every piece of information was checked manually?).

    Reductio Ad Absurdem? It is certainly absurd of Wilson to reduce the argument to a silly point, then attack that.

  8. poroti

    I have been fascinated for some time by the people who say they lose socks in their machine and sometimes find them in the pump. Must be tiny socks???

  10. I was hoping Fitzgibbon would lose his seat at the election, waste of space.
    Get’s the fright of his life from One Nation and now he’s hugging coal again at every opportunity.

  12. abc730 @abc730
    · 21h

    Leaked documents show Centrelink staff have been given a performance guide for raising debts that measures tasks down to the minute. Closing robodebt cases is a critical performance measure. #abc730

    Staff treated like robots too. Who is in charge of this disaster? Not the minister, the head honcho.

  13. Karvelas vs DiNatale on ABC24

    Very powerful performance by RDN in arguing for a broader investigation into Crowngate that includes investigating politicians. Really put the heat on the LibNat Govt for their half-baked ‘investigation’ and Labor for supporting them once again.

  14. Anybody would be better than Fitzgibbon and it may have prompted labor to take the seat seriously again. The neglect of the area over the years by Fitzgibbon and labor are the reason why they nearly lost it.

  15. Karvelas vs Sharkie on ABC24

    Now Sharkie is following on from RDN in calling for a parliamentary investigation into Crowngate. Excellent work from the crossbenchers.

  16. Searching for the short version of the “Serenity Prayer” I came across this👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇

    (Short version is usually just “Fuggit.”) 😇

  19. Former Labor leader Bill Shorten has declared he takes responsibility for the party’s shock election loss, and that he holds no resentment about the result.
    …
    Asked if he took any personal responsibility, Mr Shorten said he did.

    “That’s why I stood down, absolutely. You have to take some responsibility,” he said.

    “I love being in politics. It’s a chance to make a difference. Part of a united team – I am very grateful to the voters in my electorate for giving me another term.

    “The party is reviewing the whole election and what I am going to do is give time for that process to happen.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/07/30/bill-shorten-labor-loss/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Update%20-%2020190730

  20. Karvelas one of the very few to give crossbenchers real opportunity to call out the cartel arrangements going on in parliament.

    Bravo PK and our ABC !

  22. Patrick Dodson: We seem to be drifting, yet again, and the high hopes of First Nations’ could be dashed unless there is some clear leadership from the PM.

  24. Bucephalus:

    So your initial claim about Costello was a lie and you know nothing about the matter.

    I did not make any claim of the nature suggested, so it is not possible that it would be a lie. I suggest you withdraw.

    I claimed (and claim) Mr Costello found it difficult (or at least more difficult than he was expecting) to get work in the corporate world. I noted that this was notwithstanding his presumably having said all the right things. In fact, the first is not really my claim, nor a position that is in any way controversial. In fact it was more or less universally held in Melbourne at least.

    In particular I can’t see that I have ever claimed that Mr Costello or anyone else made “personal applications for Directorships” since that is not the way it is done and normally I would say something like “offered to join the Board” or “invited to join the Board” if I was talking about such topics. In fact as I now see I said nothing of the sort in this case, but instead, the rather more generic:

    get paid positions (outside of government)

    In fact it was you who introduced the topic of “Directorships”, viz;

    How do you know about Costello’s personal applications for Directorships?

    To be clear, I made no claims about “Costello’s personal applications for Directorships”; that is a topic you have introduced.

    Since you seem to want to reveal something you know, perhaps about “Costello’s personal applications for Directorships”, why don’t you just do so!

  26. https://benjaminstudebaker.com/2019/07/23/the-left-cannot-win-the-country-by-campaigning-like-hillary-clinton/?fbclid=IwAR0tS-rlTTfCIC3M1VnKFf1e_9APBxKDy5F9ZWchfDSEatiyKLkBzbfGp7Y

    In this blog post political scientist Benjamin Studebaker expresses the view that although AOC does campaign on economic justice issues such as a Job Guarantee and Medicare For All, she prioritizes immigration, anti-racism, and other culture war topics. He thinks that the Democrats will continue to lose presidential elections and fail to win majorities in the Senate because of this failure to emphasize policies that provide economic security to hundreds of millions of people.

    In my view Benjamin doesn’t give AOC enough credit for using her public profile to contradict mainstream falsehoods about economic policy. AOC has used committee hearings to tackle some very important belief structures that hinder the proper use of fiscal policy.

    For instance, AOC has publicly questioned economic officials about the concept of a Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment. Her questioning was well-informed and masterly. She is advised and mentored by excellent macroeconomists such as Stephanie Kelton (chief economic advisor to Bernie Sanders) and Randall Wray. She is obviously a quick study.

    NAIRU is important because it is THE reason why policymakers don’t expand the size of the public sector until unemployment is brought down to 1 or 2 percent and underemployment is brought down to zero. They could do this, but they don’t because they wrongly believe that it would be inflationary to do so. There is no empirical support for this concept and it is a crime against humanity to deliberately keep total labour underutilization at elevated levels because of an unverified and illogical guess that bringing it down to 1 or 2 percent would be inflationary. Surely the sensible course of action is to use expansionary fiscal policy to bring labour underutilization down as low as possible, and if inflation starts to get too high you can stop the expansion.

    AOC understands this point and she is in close touch with macroeconomists who are at the cutting edge of the research on these issues. For instance, she has endorsed the best macroeconomics text book in the world today. It is called Macroeconomics; it was published in 2019; and it was written by William Mitchell, Randall Wray, and Martin Watts.

    AOC supports a Job Guarantee to eradicate involuntary unemployment and act as a macroeconomic stabilizer.

  27. E. G. Theodore says:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2019 at 5:20 pm

    Your pedantry is boring. You know nothing about whether Costello has any difficulty what so ever.

  29. My wife and I have a policy of speaking sternly to inanimate objects and plants before taking the ultimate decision of moving them to other pastures.

    A case in point is our Lemon Tree which had been wasp infected. But, even after extended care and due attention we weren’t getting the love back. Finally, my wife bought some other plants and left them nearby in their pots. We then had a conflag in close listening range to the recalcitrant plant with my “Chainsaw” friendly son in law along the lines that something needed to be done.

    Less than twelve months later the tree is abundant with lemons.

    The moral of this story is the plants and machines know when you are not happy. they just need quality guidance to have them reform and become better members of the household.

  31. Bucephalus:

    Your pedantry is boring. You know nothing about whether Costello has any difficulty what so ever.

    Your unrequited sycophancy is both boring and undignified.

    I’ve been in the same room as Mr Costello (and not that large a room). Paul Keating had him 100% right in 1995 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaLLP4sc_6Q), in fact he was being generous.

  32. You know nothing about whether Costello has any difficulty what so ever.

    It was widely reported in the media that Peter Costello was not getting the corporate roles that he was expecting to get as a former long-serving Commonwealth Treasurer.

  33. Wilkie’s motion to have a parliamentary inquiry into Crown shot down 127 – 5 votes:

    The crossbench five – Helen Haines, Zali Steggall, Rebekha Sharkie, Adam Bandt and Andrew Wilkie – vote to establish a joint select committee on Crown Casino as the government and opposition vote together against the motion.

  34. The Tradies are going to be looking for someone to blame. They have ‘had a go’ but the miracles seem to have stopped happening:

    The economy and jobs market is facing a testing few months with fresh evidence the residential construction sector is still struggling, with warnings 100,000 construction workers could lose their jobs.

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday reported a 1.2 per cent drop in building approvals across the country last month, led by a 5.4 per cent fall in NSW.

    …Approvals in the apartment sector have now fallen by 39.3 per cent over the past year with last month the worst June performance since 2013. Some of the biggest drops have been among unit blocks four storeys or taller, with approvals of these in NSW down 50 per cent over the past two years.

    …In the just-completed financial year there were a net 56,357 house sales across the country. It was the lowest annual number in records that go back to the 1991 recession.

    …”Given this, we expect the RBA will cut rates by a further 50 basis points to 0.5 per cent with 25 basis point cuts in both October and February 2020.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/property-sales-tumble-leading-to-prediction-of-100-000-jobs-losses-20190730-p52c4v.html

    ‘Interest rates will always be lower under a Coalition government’ allright. But not in a good way.

  35. Pegasus @ #783 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 5:42 pm

    Wilkie’s motion to have a parliamentary inquiry into Crown shot down 127 – 5 votes:

    The crossbench five – Helen Haines, Zali Steggall, Rebekha Sharkie, Adam Bandt and Andrew Wilkie – vote to establish a joint select committee on Crown Casino as the government and opposition vote together against the motion.

    Snarky wowsers got another pizzling.

  37. Gosh I apologise for making what I thought (and still think) to be an uncontroversial comment about corporate roles being related to price.

    The corporate sector cares about price? Imagine that! Who knew?

  38. C@tmomma @ #784 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 5:43 pm

    The Tradies are going to be looking for someone to blame. They have ‘had a go’ but the miracles seem to have stopped happening:

    The economy and jobs market is facing a testing few months with fresh evidence the residential construction sector is still struggling, with warnings 100,000 construction workers could lose their jobs.

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday reported a 1.2 per cent drop in building approvals across the country last month, led by a 5.4 per cent fall in NSW.

    …Approvals in the apartment sector have now fallen by 39.3 per cent over the past year with last month the worst June performance since 2013. Some of the biggest drops have been among unit blocks four storeys or taller, with approvals of these in NSW down 50 per cent over the past two years.

    …In the just-completed financial year there were a net 56,357 house sales across the country. It was the lowest annual number in records that go back to the 1991 recession.

    …”Given this, we expect the RBA will cut rates by a further 50 basis points to 0.5 per cent with 25 basis point cuts in both October and February 2020.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/property-sales-tumble-leading-to-prediction-of-100-000-jobs-losses-20190730-p52c4v.html

    ‘Interest rates will always be lower under a Coalition government’ allright. But not in a good way.

    At this stage of the economic cycle, the ALP does not need to give the Libs anything to bash them with.

    I believe there is a recession coming. The article you quote confirms that a lot of the aspirationals are about to be disappointed big time by the consequences. In an economy that has had 28 years of growth there are a lot of people about to learn that belt tightening is not an optional extra.

    Labor just needs to present as a modest, sensible alternative and wait!

  39. Paddy Manning on Crown:

    https://outline.com/YEkgCr

    Anyone who wants their faith in Australian democracy restored should read the speeches given from the crossbench in the House of Representatives today in favour of a motion for a joint parliamentary inquiry into Crown Casino – particularly those by Andrew Wilkie, who moved it, Rebekha Sharkie, who seconded it, and Adam Bandt, who spoke in support. … But the push for an inquiry, due to be voted upon in parliament this afternoon, may yet succeed in the Senate … if the Opposition will reconsider.

    In calling for a parliamentary inquiry, Wilkie lamented the failure of Victorian and Commonwealth regulators to follow up his own revelations about Crown in 2017, and said that only a federal inquiry could deal with a problem that was “multi-jurisdictional, multi-agency and multinational”. Wilkie made further revelations of his own, detailed to his office by a former driver for Crown.
    :::
    Sharkie, seconding the motion, said she was astonished that the Opposition had not asked a single question on Crown yesterday, questioned whether Crown was a fit and proper company to hold a gaming licence, and asked MPs where their collective national security concerns were now. “The hypocrisy – that we have a border security regime and a government that wants to stop a handful of desperately ill men and women who have been found to be refugees from temporarily transferring to Australia for medical treatment on one hand, and [yet] they’re willing to roll out the welcome mat for those with deep pockets and potential connections to the triads – is unbelievable.” Neither major party had come to the issue with clean hands, she said, and voting against the motion would prove they were beholden to the gaming industry. Sharkie added: “Every day in this place, every single day, we are given yet another reason why we need a federal integrity commission now. One that is well funded, that is not kicked further down the road; we need it now.”

    Adam Bandt

    “Never again will I take a lesson from the government about the importance of stopping criminals coming into this country and the need to have tough border protection policies. Because what we hear from them is that if you’re fleeing war and persecution, we’ll lock you up, but if you come here with a bag of cash, we’ll open the gate for you so you can go and get on the drugs and gamble at the casino.”

    Thank god for the crossbench.

  40. Pegasus @ #789 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 5:53 pm

    Paddy Manning on Crown:

    https://outline.com/YEkgCr

    Anyone who wants their faith in Australian democracy restored should read the speeches given from the crossbench in the House of Representatives today in favour of a motion for a joint parliamentary inquiry into Crown Casino – particularly those by Andrew Wilkie, who moved it, Rebekha Sharkie, who seconded it, and Adam Bandt, who spoke in support. … But the push for an inquiry, due to be voted upon in parliament this afternoon, may yet succeed in the Senate … if the Opposition will reconsider.

    In calling for a parliamentary inquiry, Wilkie lamented the failure of Victorian and Commonwealth regulators to follow up his own revelations about Crown in 2017, and said that only a federal inquiry could deal with a problem that was “multi-jurisdictional, multi-agency and multinational”. Wilkie made further revelations of his own, detailed to his office by a former driver for Crown.
    :::
    Sharkie, seconding the motion, said she was astonished that the Opposition had not asked a single question on Crown yesterday, questioned whether Crown was a fit and proper company to hold a gaming licence, and asked MPs where their collective national security concerns were now. “The hypocrisy – that we have a border security regime and a government that wants to stop a handful of desperately ill men and women who have been found to be refugees from temporarily transferring to Australia for medical treatment on one hand, and [yet] they’re willing to roll out the welcome mat for those with deep pockets and potential connections to the triads – is unbelievable.” Neither major party had come to the issue with clean hands, she said, and voting against the motion would prove they were beholden to the gaming industry. Sharkie added: “Every day in this place, every single day, we are given yet another reason why we need a federal integrity commission now. One that is well funded, that is not kicked further down the road; we need it now.”

    Adam Bandt

    “Never again will I take a lesson from the government about the importance of stopping criminals coming into this country and the need to have tough border protection policies. Because what we hear from them is that if you’re fleeing war and persecution, we’ll lock you up, but if you come here with a bag of cash, we’ll open the gate for you so you can go and get on the drugs and gamble at the casino.”

    Thank god for the crossbench.

    Lots of blah. Not much substance.

    I suppose that is about as good as it gets for the Greens.

  41. Obsessing about Crown Casino instead of endangered habitat destruction says everything you need to know about the modern “Greens”.

  43. Jaeger

    I’m afraid you’re right.

    On Crown Casino.
    This is only the beginning. I think that much more info needs to be revealed so that attacks can be targeted, not a general spray.

  44. Pegasus @ #792 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 6:00 pm

    Sam Dastyari pops up with an opinion piece about Joyce coming out to support a rise in Newstart.

    The Left’s Reaction To Barnaby Joyce Is Why We Keep Losing:

    https://10daily.com.au/views/a190729ohduv/sam-dastyari-the-lefts-reaction-to-barnaby-joyce-is-why-we-keep-losing-20190730

    So, you’re opposed to a Newstart rise or just peeved because someone you don’t like agreed with it?

    Greens are never consistent. That’s why they are regarded as unreliable.

  48. Confessions @ #794 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 6:06 pm

    GG:

    I really do hope you are wrong about a recession coming.

    GG is at the coalface, so to speak. He can probably see these things coming better than most of us here.

    The Shane Wright article also has some very senior analysts saying the same thing.

    I mean, the RBA cutting Interest Rates to 0.5%! Unheard of in my lifetime.

  49. Those nasty Europeans!

    UK in Europe’s nasty choke-hold: Lib MP

    New Liberal member for Sturt James Stevens has expressed his relief over Brexit.

    A new Liberal MP says Brexit will allow Australia to trade independently with the UK without it being in “Europe’s nasty choke-hold”.

    (Canberra Times headline)

  50. Liberals behaving badly…

    By Eryk Bagshaw
    July 30, 2019 — 6.00pm

    Two women who say they were sexually assaulted while working for senior politicians have blasted the Liberal Party’s culture, as pressure grows for action on a long-awaited review ordered in the wake of last year’s federal leadership turmoil.

    One woman who worked for a federal minister said another parliamentary staffer pinned her down and ripped off her underpants during a sitting week in Canberra in 2015, while a former staffer to the NSW speaker said a fellow Liberal came to her house the same year and forced himself on her while masturbating.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/completely-disempowered-liberal-staffers-speak-up-after-alleged-sexual-assaults-20190729-p52bnw.html

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