Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

The Coalition finally records an opinion poll lead, as Newspoll breaks the post-election ice.

The ten-week silence of Newspoll – and indeed Australian polling in general, so far as voting intention is concerned – has ended with a result of 53-47 to the Coalition, as reported by The Australian. To this, naturally, must be added the qualification that the pollster never once recorded the newly re-elected government with a lead in the entire three years of the previous parliamentary term. The poll has the Coalition at 44% of the primary vote (41.4% at the election), Labor at 33% (33.3%) and the Greens at 11% (10.4%). The report seems to be saying One Nation is at 3%, which compares with the 3.1% they scored at the election when contesting 59 out of 151 seats.

The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison’s approval at a new high of 51%, up five on the pre-election poll, and down nine on disapproval to 36%. Anthony Albanese’s Newspoll ratings are 39% approval and 36% disapproval, which is a) “the first net positive approval rating for an Opposition leader since 2015”, as noted in the report since Simon Benson, b) the worst Newspoll debut for an Opposition Leader since Andrew Peacock in 1989, as illustrated in this earlier post, and c) the equal lowest uncommitted rating for an Opposition Leader on debut, perhaps mitigating b) a little. Morrison leads 48-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-38 in the pre-election poll, which we can now presume was flattering to Bill Shorten.

No indication at this point as to whether and how Newspoll is doing anything differently. Certainly it looks like business as usual to the extent that the poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1601, with The Australian’s report trumpeting a 2.4% margin of error that is less than the size of its error at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

911 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Kevin Bonham has an observation…

    Aided by the unusually long poll hiatus, Albanese (31) has the third highest debut Better PM score for a completely new Opposition Leader ever. He trails Kevin Rudd (36) and somebody else on 38.

    You all know who the somebody else was, don’t you?


  2. So who were the 2 ministers and one sitting MP who approached Roman Quad and suggested BorderForce speed up the processing of private jets full of Chinese Whales headed for Crown Casino?

    I doubt it would have been this one..

  3. It’s actually 58-42 to the ALP. There’s a clear swing on with angry punters wanting franking credits abolished.

  4. You know those private jets full of Whales? Mum can tip in 500 large into the Liberal Party raffle to smooth things.

    Now a conversation like that would never happen. And even if it did, we would never know.

  5. Nath

    I will be n the front row of the public gallery at 10am tomorrow when the prosecutor begins presenting the evidence in chief against a catholic priest.

    It is his fourth separate trial so far over the past 4 years or so. Found guilty on all he is 3 years into 18 with non parole of 10.

    He appeared very relaxed in the dock last week during a couple of days legal argument about whether tendency evidence would be admissible. Think he knows that whatever extra he might get, it is likely to be mostly concurrent ….. maybe a smallish addition consecutively.

  6. There was some interesting titbits

    60 Minutes Australia
    Did you miss any of tonight’s major #60Mins investigation into Crown Casino? Catch up on full episodes with

    60 Minutes 2019 Ep 24 Crown Unmasked, Watch TV Online
    The story that Crown Casino doesn’t want you to see. A 60 Minutes, The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald major investigation months in the making.

  7. This is not going to end well:
    Looks like almost the perfect ingredients for an intervention and the end of ‘one country two systems’.

  8. @Steve777

    I agree, although I am a bit concerned over the 36% disapproval rating for Anthony Albanese. So far he has been a fairly decent opposition leader.

  9. “Looks like almost the perfect ingredients for an intervention and the end of ‘one country two systems’.”

    That seems likely to me, though I’m no expert. I can see the PLA marching in to “restore order”.

  10. thank you everyone for your condolences and messages on the passing of my Mum today. I am alone in Mum’s house tonight with my dogs and it surreal that she will not be through the door. I have put the TV on, and doing all the things that I usually do on a Sunday night. But it is not the same, and it will never be the same again. I am trying to put that aside for now and deal with it tomorrow. Grief is coming. I can feel it trying to push its way past the temazepam. It is low dose, infrequently taken but right now it is buying me a little time.

    I have an appointment with one of the saddest parts of my life, and I do not have an option to cancel. I will just have to trust my ability to get through it.

    It is why I do not understand how some people put other people into grief. How can people put other people into suffering, or refuse to relieve it?

    I truly do not understand such people, and yet they are running our nations, our corporations, and people’s lives.

    Meoldema was, is always, one of the good ones.

  11. When was the last time there was a 2 month gap between polls?

    There were massive swings against the ALP in coal mining seats in 2019 – is this a random national poll or does it tell us about the sentiment in the coal mining seats?

    “In the five days before election night, Professor Bela Stantic analysed 2 million social media comments, from more than half a million unique accounts, relating to 50 key terms, and predicted that Scott Morrison would win.”

    Just get him to do the polls. He is not the only man to download tweets to predict that Trump will win. Jean Pierre Kloppers is another.

  12. Puffy – take care. As others here said, remember the good times. Maybe stay with other family or get someone to stay with you if possible?

  13. Kyle Griffin‏Verified account @kylegriffin1

    According to the pool report, Trump has arrived at Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia.

    This is Trump’s 212th day at a Trump golf club and 280th day at a Trump property as president.

    Over $100,000,000 of taxpayers’ money so far

  14. MSNBC’s Joy Reid gleefully dredges up Trump’s Mar-a-Lago ‘infestation’ problems in brutal smack-down

    Taking a tip from Donald Trump’s broad-brush complaint that Baltimore is a vermin-infested city, MSNBC host Joy Reid reminded viewers that Trump’s prized Mar-a-Lago resort property has a long history of infestations of its own — among other problems — that have led to health department violations and sanctions.

    Reid jumped right into it.

    “‘Rust, mold and parasites,’” Reid stated reading from an LA Times report, “‘Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago cited for 78 health violations in the last three years,’ um …. yeah.”

    “So Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago is full of parasites, it’s infested,” she continued as her panelists laughed.

  15. Hi Puff.

    So sad for you my dear. Be brave. Bereavement is a long road but I know you are strong, just like your Mum. I often recall the weekend you and meoldema and your little dogs spent with me. Hugs.

  16. The AFL Grand Final just won’t be the same this year for PTMD. 🙁

    But as my late husband said to me, you have to go on. You are still alive and you have family that are dependent on you to put on a brave face but also to keep it together so that they can too. It’s one of the hardest jobs of all to do but there are now a lot of people counting on you to do the best job you can for Meoldema. She deserves nothing less. And she would want nothing more than for you to keep living your life in peace and happiness. 🙂

  17. The Libs have been at this Labor=Debt a fair while now

    If the above has no picture add http to the start of the address below

  18. Going on how untrustworthy the public have shown to be in these opinion polls ,does this mean the libs/nats come the actual federal election will lose

  19. Baltimore’s vermin are Trump unicorns.

    He has the ‘debate’ where he wants it: US race hate politics. Trump won.
    You talk about vermin at Mar-el-lago? Trump won.
    Smartarse political cartoons about vermin? Trump won.

    The effective political response is not to talk about vermin but about the impact of Trump’s policies.

  20. @MsRebeccaRobins
    #auspol is this a joke ? Former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce has revealed he is butchering his own sheep and buying the cheapest groceries to support his two families as he struggles to make ends meet on his $211,000 wage.

  21. poroti
    I agree that it is time for Labor to hammer the interest payments theme and to refuse to do anything other than name it as the Liberal interest payment.

  22. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This will make up for yesterday’s paucity.

    Paul Keating has lashed government MPs lobbying for a delay in the increase of the superannuation guarantee as “monkeys” and described the prospect as “grand theft”.
    In a worthwhile article Ross Gittins is not impressed with Morrison’s moves on the APS, saying the manager who surrounds themselves with Yes-persons is more likely to fall in a hole than achieve great things. He gets the feeling ministers and their staffers regard the APS as class enemies.
    Australia’s underlying inflation pulse is fading further, official data this week is expected to show, reinforcing the RBA’s lower for longer rates narrative.
    Eryk Bagshaw says that the Morrison government is preparing to go into a tense personal battle with Labor over industrial relations in the final week before the long winter break.
    And Rob Harris goes into detail over the government’s approach.
    Labor is insisting Scott Morrison’s new union-busting laws will do nothing to dislodge the controversial construction kingpin John Setka.
    Jennifer Hewett outlines the costs and consequences of big tech.
    Fairfax-Lite continues its exposé on Crown Casino and its criminal leaks.
    And the SMH editorial urges governments to get serious over the amount of black money going through Crown and other casinos.
    With economic data for the financial year just ended steadily arriving, Australia’s drift down the global league ladder continues. It is clear already that, among comparable countries, Australia’s economy now ranks lower than ever. Another sobering account of the real state of Australia’s economy from Alan Austin.
    Paul Fletcher has not denied he personally intervened in an independent Parliamentary inquiry, preventing it from recommending that unemployment payments be raised.
    Meanwhile Barnaby Joyce’s Newstart push is gathering momentum writes Kirsten Lawson.
    And a survey of 500 people on Newstart and Youth Allowance reveals many recipients are skipping meals, medication and showers to save money.
    Sam Maiden also looks at this survey.
    The amount of clean electricity being sent into Australian homes and businesses is expected to increase 36% this year, and should grow another 25% next year.
    Roman Quaedvlieg’s partner is due to learn her fate after pleading guilty to breaking two laws in a corruption investigation.
    The proposal to privatise Medicare is bizarre. We should treasure our public health system writes Greg Jericho.
    NSW Family Planning director Deborah Bateson explains how abortion is healthcare, not a crime – and at last the law will catch up.
    And Kate Aubusson writes that a united front of cross-party MPs will move quickly to pass a bill decriminalising abortion in NSW, anticipating staunch opposition morally and religiously from opposed politicians.
    The Morrison government has outraged family violence support service providers and advocates by confirming it will go ahead with plans to potentially fund couples counselling for abuse perpetrators and their victims.
    Professor Caron Beaton-Wells tells us what the ACCC has in store for Google and Facebook.
    However Amada Lotz says that we can put a leash on Google and Facebook, but there’s no saving the traditional news model.
    Labor will continue to target the energy minister, Angus Taylor, as the government’s weak link, citing power price rises since 2015 and renewing its push to set up a Senate inquiry into his meetings with the environment department over endangered grasslands.
    But according to Michelle Grattan the government will pull out all stops to prevent a Senate inquiry into Angus Taylor.
    Workplace academic Stephen Clibborn goes to south Queensland to see how individual community members are stepping into the void left by traditional enforcers of Australia’s employment laws, protecting both vulnerable temporary migrant workers and their local economies. Good stuff.
    Kurt Fearnley says the disability royal commission could get “messy” before it even begins, as disability advocates warn of boycotts and protests against the $527 million inquiry if two controversial commissioners continue in their jobs.
    The editorial in the Canberra Times says that Boris Johnson needs to drop the act and step up.
    This contribution from Sean Kelly is well worth reading.
    The age of criminal responsibility must be increased, says Youssef Saudie.,12939
    The new Minerals Council chairman Helen Coonan will challenge members to reduce workplace fatalities to zero, saying a recent surge in incidents was a sign something was ”not working” in the industry’s approach to safety.
    The reputations of Australia’s banks are unlikely to bottom until the regulator clears a backlog of breaches and legal actions.
    Meanwhile consumer data rights legislation is on the cusp of passing federal Parliament, in a major shake-up that will help empower bank customers.
    The navy is finding it increasingly difficult to find, train and retain enough submariners writes Ben Packham. This has long been the case. Google.


    The Government has at last responded to the chaos in our visa system, writes Abul Rizvi. A huge backlog of visa applications has built up under Dutton’s watch.,12945
    A civil trial involving Geelong College and an alleged victim of child sex abuse is set to begin in the Victorian Supreme Court this morning.
    Hong Kong is not a good place to be at the moment.
    Carrie Fellner reports that sources within the construction industry have said there are few companies with the technical expertise to execute Sydney’s demolished stadium redevelopment.
    This lady lifts the lid on the ACL’s involvement with Israel Folau.
    And now Mehajer’s lawyer is in trouble!
    Stewart Lee takes no pleasure in having been right about Boris Johnson.
    Robert Mueller’s testimony to Congress “broke the lie” Donald Trump has been telling and potentially cleared the path to impeachment, House judiciary chair Jerrold Nadler said yesterday.
    The person who pinched Gundagai’s Dog on the Tuckerbox earns today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe seems to think Angus Taylor has some questions to answer.

    Pat Campbell and trouble ahead for Boris.

    From Matt Golding.

    John Shakespeare with birthday greetings for JWH.

    Zanetti crowing too early perhaps?

    Glen Le Lievre with a proposal for the Abbott statue some people are calling for.

    From the US

  23. Zoidlord @ #27 Monday, July 29th, 2019 – 6:17 am

    Polls that have broken record will never be trusted and people will wake up to a recession!

    And Scrott will successfully blame Labor as the root cause.
    Labor will dutifully walk straight into it.
    Gee, it’s like a movie I’ve seen before. I always know what happens next.

  24. Boerwar says:

    Butchering your own sheep if you can do it makes a lot of financial sense.

    Hell yeah, at $100 a pop those legs of lamb would be really hitting Barnyards wallet 🙁

    As for the poor wee root rat’s play for sympathy i have something for him.

  25. Boerwar @ #40 Monday, July 29th, 2019 – 7:27 am

    I agree that it is time for Labor to hammer the interest payments theme and to refuse to do anything other than name it as the Liberal interest payment.

    Labor hasn’t been able to pin the ballooning debt on the donkey yet so I’m not sure how that’s going to work.

  26. Poor Jeremy Shorten, probably putting on a brave face.
    Blind Freddie, the well known Australian political psephologist, and good friend of mine has told me Boris Morrison will call a general election within six months and win it in a landslide.
    He might have got some of his names mixed up but essentially it makes sense.

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