The ten-week silence of Newspoll – and indeed Australian polling in general, so far as voting intention is concerned – has ended with a result of 53-47 to the Coalition, as reported by The Australian. To this, naturally, must be added the qualification that the pollster never once recorded the newly re-elected government with a lead in the entire three years of the previous parliamentary term. The poll has the Coalition at 44% of the primary vote (41.4% at the election), Labor at 33% (33.3%) and the Greens at 11% (10.4%). The report seems to be saying One Nation is at 3%, which compares with the 3.1% they scored at the election when contesting 59 out of 151 seats.
The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison’s approval at a new high of 51%, up five on the pre-election poll, and down nine on disapproval to 36%. Anthony Albanese’s Newspoll ratings are 39% approval and 36% disapproval, which is a) “the first net positive approval rating for an Opposition leader since 2015”, as noted in the report since Simon Benson, b) the worst Newspoll debut for an Opposition Leader since Andrew Peacock in 1989, as illustrated in this earlier post, and c) the equal lowest uncommitted rating for an Opposition Leader on debut, perhaps mitigating b) a little. Morrison leads 48-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-38 in the pre-election poll, which we can now presume was flattering to Bill Shorten.
No indication at this point as to whether and how Newspoll is doing anything differently. Certainly it looks like business as usual to the extent that the poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1601, with The Australian’s report trumpeting a 2.4% margin of error that is less than the size of its error at the election.
Newspoll LNP 53 Labor 47 2PP. So Labor are well on the way to an election victory then. Yawn…….
Boerwar says:
As if they would 🙁 The Libs would have hammered Labor to death over “debt and deficit disaster” had Labor doubled the national debt in 5-6 years as the Libs have done. Instead we got the sounds of silence from Labor. Hammering it such that even the disinterested eventually notice and then any talk from the government about the ‘good economy’ would immediately be undermined by that “debt disaster’ earworm.
frednk @ #5 Sunday, July 28th, 2019 – 10:08 pm
If you Dear Jesus infront of this and Amen at the end it sounds like a little prayer.
Labor’s Sad Little Coulda Shoulda Prayer.
Scrott prays, maybe it works.
Let’s all start saying Labor’s Sad Little Coulda Shoulda Prayer each night.
Okay?
poroti @ #50 Monday, July 29th, 2019 – 7:49 am
We have a winner!
My sincerest condolences on the loss of your mum, Puffy. Your loving stories over the years have shown you to be a truly devoted daughter.
@mundo
I don’t think prayers work for politics just dumb and greedy.
Having just returned from their “long autumn break” the MPs are looking forward to their “long winter break”. It is patently obvious that Morrison’s strategy is to keep his shambles of a team as much out of the public eye as possible. Going by Newspoll, it seems to be working.
Chuckle.
Yes, I can see it now. The Federal Parliamentary Labor Party are going to read the blatherings of some concern troll on a politics blog calling himself mundo. And they will act! Because he is the Way and the Light!
Nah. We’re just going to have to put up with his crap for the foreseeable. 😐
lizzie @ #58 Monday, July 29th, 2019 – 8:09 am
As I noted to my son. I bet BJ hasn’t given up the booze though.
C@t
The Media should be ashamed of themselves for giving him a platform.
Morning all
Much thanks BK for today’s offerings
I understand that Malcolm Roberts is the brains behind Pauline now.
At the next election, the LNP would have been in power for nearly a decade & many people would be sick of them & looking for something different.
Labor have an extremely good of winning, as long as they don’t anything stupid & scare people with a huge tax-and-spend agenda.
The Rudd 2007 template provides a pathway for winning. Just study what Rudd did & then do exactly what he did, which is to give an aura of being a ‘safe choice’.
Rudd wasn’t particularly charismatic in 2007. He wasn’t an inspirational figure like Obama. But people liked him & voted for him because he made them feel ‘safe’.
Can’t Barnaby rustle up some non-existent water to sell to the public purse for $80 million?
He doesn’t deserve to be a National MP, if he can’t do basic corruption.
Lizzie
Is Barnaby Joyce taking the piss. He is on a salary that only the top 10 percent of Australians are on. Disgraceful
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2019/07/economist-warns-we-re-driving-towards-a-recession.amp.html
Or is Barnaby doing what Trump does so well, distraction from what is really going on with respect to water issue, and the latest on the RAAF base story In Armidale.
mundo
You make some telling points in your strategic advice to Labor. Why not make a formal submission into how they should go about the next election campaign?
https://alp.org.au/other/campaign-review-submission/
victoria
Amy reports in the Guardian.
No dishwasher? Wow!
Can’t afford to buy a coffee? You and whose auntie?
So when he goes to Canberra he can really let his hair down. ROFL.
Puff, I am so sorry to hear of your loss. meoldma’s best work was her daughter, hugs and a prayer.
Angus Taylor might have his GrassGate scandal referred to a Senate Commitee this week.
They could extend the inquiry into the Taylor Family $100m of grants from the unsuspecting taxpayers..
“In the five days before election night, Professor Bela Stantic analysed 2 million social media comments, from more than half a million unique accounts, relating to 50 key terms, and predicted that Scott Morrison would win.” and from yesterday “female voters aged between 35-54” key to Morison’s win – FB appears more of mature female thing now (according to my daughter anyway) making this a key facebook demographic of which my wife is a member. I ditched facebook years ago but she related some of the mostly anti ALP posts shared/repeated by her [mostly female] “trusted” facebook friends. That is a powerful way to harvest votes from the politically disengaged I suggest.
BTW I am NOT suggesting that this demographic is over represented in the politically disengaged group, just that FB is good way to connect/influence them, and I know there is a lot more to social media than just FB.
EDIT: Plus it was obvious Shorten was very unpopular,my wife hated him for some reason.
Perhaps Barnaby could come out to real Australia and see how the majority are struggling to stay on top of their debts.
The income to debt ratio is biting hard. No wonder the notion of values of housing going down worried so many. Being in negative territory scared the horses.
The bottom line until people can continue to service their debts, it will be business as usual. As soon as that changes, shit will hit the fan.
My advice to anyone I speak to is to pay down debt at any opportunity possibile.
On Barnaby Remeikis has this to say.
“I just….no words. I have no words for this.”
Puffy,
Celebrate her life and the many happy memories. They can never be taken away from you. Thoughts are with you.
Lizzie
Dishwashers are hardly a luxury. Even people on very low incomes can find the money to buy one. Especially these days even cheap dishwashers that cost under $500 do a great job of cleaning dishes.
Don’t know what silly game Barnaby is playing
Lizzie
Ah. Tony Windsor is probably right. That is the game Barnaby is playing.
He is a shameless charlatan.
Politics is infested with them at present,
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-29/centrelink-robodebt-raised-against-dead-disability-pensioner/11342994
If LNP did death taxes Labor should be deathdebt on Centrelink
BK
Amy Remekis has no words. I guess she just has to look at what is happening in the US and UK to see how bad the political class is behaving.
For goodness sake Trump and Boris Johnson are the leaders.
FFS, we are living in bizarro world!!!
My condolences PMD.
Regards Andrew
lizzie @ #61 Monday, July 29th, 2019 – 8:22 am
Jeez! The guy looks like he is about to burst into tears about po’ BJ! 😆
sprocket_ @ #68 Monday, July 29th, 2019 – 8:35 am
Thanks for taking me seriously Sprocket.
Can BJ produce a family budget for us then? Showing the nation just how his salary as an MP is being gobbled up such that he can’t afford to put the heater on in winter?
But he won’t do that because to do so would expose him to the fact that he is peddling absolute crap.
As Tony Windsor observed, it’s probably to do with a court case. I’d say his divorce from his first wife.
What a grub.
Don’t know what silly game Barnaby is playing
Tugging on the heartstrings as he plays the shell game with his money.
Barnaby is just demonstrating the desperate need some in Society have and how urgent the stage 3 tax cuts are.
Shame on Labor for opposing this completely justified tax relief measure¿
C@t
Yep. A grub
Who is Barnaby kidding?
There is now a series of sarcastic tweets #DoingItToughLikeBarnaby
Shorten and Labor had over $600 million spent against them in six years.
This included absolutely relentless and ruthless personal attacks by the Murdoch minions, with the daily agenda-setting Oz subsidized at a rate of $25 million per annum.
Sky was a Liberal talk fest.
It included six years of unrestrained QT slagging.
It included six years of relentless sniping by the Greens.
It included a taxpayers funded $55 million on the Kill Bill Royal Commission.
It included Palmer spending a $60 million tax deductible sordid campaign.
It included $200 million of taxpayer funded program subsidized campaign of spending telling everyone what a wonderful thing the Government was.
Kill Bill was the meme du jour for six years.
Everyone from UAP through PHON, the Nationals and the Liberals, through to the Greens did Kill Bill in a sort of monotonous dirge.
Rex is STILL killing Bill.
How would Morrison go with $600 million spent against him and constant slagging by every other political party?
People would be shaking their heads and telling each other wisely how unpopular Morrison was.
But peeps find it hard to understand why Bill was not popular.
Albo starts his three years less popular than Bill.
Here is the thing. If Albo’s popularity climbs they will start spending hundreds of millions axing Albo.
If the Left think that their hopes lie with a charismatic popular/populist far Left charismatic leader spouting MMT crapola with messianic dedication, they are up shit creek without a paddle and with no idea where to go.
Centrist policies coupled with don’t rock the boat coupled with don’t insult voters might get Labor over the line in three years time.
But, as things stand inside the Left, we are in for ten years of Morrison.
Condolences, Puffy. Look after yourself. -A
It has been proved that poor people are more likely to pay their debts than the rich.
So true. The Commonwealth controls the unemployment rate. Mass labour wastage occurs because the Commonwealth is not doing enough net spending into the private sector. The Commonwealth needs to either increase its spending or cut taxes or do both. The composition of the Commonwealth’s spending matters as well – it isn’t just the amount. The best kind of spending for lowering unemployment is spending on directly employing people.
The Commonwealth is doing the right amount of net spending if under-employment is unheard of and if unemployment is no more than 1 or 2 percent (the so-called frictionally unemployed who are spending very short periods – days or weeks- between jobs).
One of the predicators for poverty is a marriage break up. Usually both partners are impoverished to some extent. Which partner is more impoverished depends on the particular circumstances.
Joyce is maintaining two households.
At least some of Joyce’s daughters are, I am guessing, at peak financial demand phase.
One at least was, and may still be, going to $40,000 a year private boarding schools and the divorce demands will be that this is maintained by Joyce. That is after tax dollars.
I assume that one or more will be at uni, not earning, and not able to stay at home while doing tertiary studies. Add Sydney rent for one or two daughters.
He presumably has to keep his wife according to her accustomed standards.
I assume that various males will be nodding their heads and muttering ‘Taken to the cleaners.’
He has two babies at peak financial demand time. Not sure whether he had the ready to pay off dwelling no 2 but he may be doing house repayments.
I assume that missus no 2 will not be earning while the kids are small and because of her precarious work career will not be getting parental leave.
Doubtless Joyce is infinitely better placed than someone on Newstart plus.
But, given his financial circumstances going into the separation, he could well be struggling to make ends meet.
Having never had one and detesting washing up, I would definitely rank dishwashers as a luxury item.
Living in Asia, I can’t remember seeing one in electrical stores.
In my last place I had to heat the water on the stove to wash up and it seems it will be the same here in Indonesia. 😆
Robodebt – traditionally the government did not pursue dead people or debts under $100
They’re getting quicker off the mark with sending their Robodebt letters as well. My son finally got a job, and about 1 month into his new job he received a Robodebt letter from the Debt Collector (and I wonder if the company has a Liberal Mate’s link?). So they said he owed the government a grand total of ~$145 and some coin. We calculated that it comprised the $75 Energy Supplement Payment he received after starting work, and a day’s worth of Newstart and Rental Allowance.
Such a pittance! But they just couldn’t wait to grab it back.