Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

The Coalition finally records an opinion poll lead, as Newspoll breaks the post-election ice.

The ten-week silence of Newspoll – and indeed Australian polling in general, so far as voting intention is concerned – has ended with a result of 53-47 to the Coalition, as reported by The Australian. To this, naturally, must be added the qualification that the pollster never once recorded the newly re-elected government with a lead in the entire three years of the previous parliamentary term. The poll has the Coalition at 44% of the primary vote (41.4% at the election), Labor at 33% (33.3%) and the Greens at 11% (10.4%). The report seems to be saying One Nation is at 3%, which compares with the 3.1% they scored at the election when contesting 59 out of 151 seats.

The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison’s approval at a new high of 51%, up five on the pre-election poll, and down nine on disapproval to 36%. Anthony Albanese’s Newspoll ratings are 39% approval and 36% disapproval, which is a) “the first net positive approval rating for an Opposition leader since 2015”, as noted in the report since Simon Benson, b) the worst Newspoll debut for an Opposition Leader since Andrew Peacock in 1989, as illustrated in this earlier post, and c) the equal lowest uncommitted rating for an Opposition Leader on debut, perhaps mitigating b) a little. Morrison leads 48-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-38 in the pre-election poll, which we can now presume was flattering to Bill Shorten.

No indication at this point as to whether and how Newspoll is doing anything differently. Certainly it looks like business as usual to the extent that the poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1601, with The Australian’s report trumpeting a 2.4% margin of error that is less than the size of its error at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

911 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Pegasus says:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2019 at 5:42 pm

    Wilkie’s motion to have a parliamentary inquiry into Crown shot down 127 – 5 votes:

    The crossbench five – Helen Haines, Zali Steggall, Rebekha Sharkie, Adam Bandt and Andrew Wilkie – vote to establish a joint select committee on Crown Casino as the government and opposition vote together against the motion.

    Worked it out yet.
    Impotent.
    Noisy, work hard to enable the Liberals but impotent.
    Waste of space.
    Damaging to the environment because people who care vote for the waste of space.; give the public funding to a party that aims to destroy Labor.
    Labor have actually created marine parks.
    Labor did actually stop the damming of the Franklin.
    Labor did actually put a price on carbon.
    The Labor party has done a little more that waste every ones time with senate stunts.

    The Greens damaging to progressive politics, damaging of Australian society, damaging to the environment.

  3. C@t:

    There are very worrying signs around and our current govt doesn’t have the policy tools or the intellectual heft to manage a recession properly.

  4. Does the Crown thingie surprise? Crown and its activities is the highest order of attainment for devotees. Pungent hypocrisy.

  6. I’m not entirely convinced a recession is coming but I differently think we will soon learn or relearn the lesson that supply side economics own its on wont be enough to bring the economy to life, I listen to the Treasurer and talking to Coalition aligned corporate types gives the strong impression they hold little hope with one or two saying they wish Shorten had won so they could pin it on the ALP.

  10. Costello was the beneficiary of the Hawke/Keating reforms and went on to stuff it all up to the point the country is still paying for his ineptitude.

  11. Fessy
    I blame Howard for much of that because many of today’s problems steam from Howard’s policy ideas.

    GG
    Costello was the ultimate yes man doormat.

  13. Mexicanb:

    You can’t rate Costello a solid performing treasurer while admitting he was a mere puppet for Howard.

  15. Howard and Costello were hit on the arse by a financial rainbow and then decided to piss the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow up against the wall.

  16. Lizzie

    The argument type you described is not Reductio Ad Absurdem. I think it is as you say, a unicorn-like debating strategy, rather than a variety of logic.

    RAA is a model of logical refutation of an opponent’s argument by applying a strict logical format to the opponent’s propositions which leads logically to a conclusion which is absurd. The ridiculous conclusion is then thrown back into the opponents face.

    eg you might combine a host of the opponent’s erratic propositions into a logical format which inevitably leads (by logic) to a conclusion like “carrots are canines”, which is obviously accepted as being absurd by anyone except those like Malcolm Roberts or Lyle Shelton, (or historically Premier Joh).

  17. Psyclaw @ #816 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 6:53 pm

    Lizzie

    The argument type you described is not Reductio Ad Absurdem. I think it is as you say, a unicorn-like debating strategy, rather than a variety of logic.

    RAA is a model of logical refutation of an opponent’s argument by applying a strict logical format to the opponent’s propositions which leads logically to a conclusion which is absurd. The ridiculous conclusion is then thrown back into the opponents face.

    eg you might combine a host of the opponent’s erratic propositions into a logical format which inevitably leads (by logic) to a conclusion like “carrots are canines”, which is obviously accepted as being absurd by anyone except those like Malcolm Roberts or Lyle Shelton, (or historically Premier Joh).

    All dogs have four legs.
    My cat has four legs.
    Therefore, my cat is a dog.

  18. Sure there was a bit of luck but if the ALP had been in government during that period we wouldn’t be calling it luck. No doubt the ALP 1980/90s reforms played a major role as they still to do this day and you can do a good job while being under the thump of your boss, and I wasn’t saying Costello was some innocent cleanskin from some of the Howard era’s worst policies but in terms of the treasurer role he came across as competent particularly when compared to the poor performers since.

  19. C@tmomma @ #813 Tuesday, July 30th, 2019 – 4:49 pm

    Howard and Costello were hit on the arse by a financial rainbow and then decided to piss the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow up against the wall.

    And the country is still paying for it today, eg many of the Howard/Costello-era tax concessions still available to wealthy people.

  20. I was taking a stab in the dark about a Reductio Ad Absurdem. So take me out back of the Bludger Lounge and shoot me. 😐

  24. “Pegasus, can you only post anti-Labor dross while C@tmomma’s here please.”

    With respect, lord god, Peg only posts anti-Labor dross here regardless of what the C@twoman is doing.

  25. Psyclaw

    Well, at least I described Wilson’s unicorn correctly!! He’s a smartarse. 🙂

    C@t

    Thank you for trying. I’ve never been a good debater myself, and peeps like Wilson just annoy me.

  27. “The minister for originality, Michael McCormack, delivers us the very original attack of slagging off city dwellers for *gasp* drinking coffee.

    “While the warriors from Newtown and Marrickville sat … about quaffing their piccolos…”

    HOW FRICKING DARE THEY?

    Personally, whenever I go to regional and rural Australia, I join the locals in a bracing cup of concrete, because according to our deputy prime minister, no one drinks coffee beyond the goat cheese curtain.

    Michael McCormack: we really need to unite the city and country and improve the discourse. Also Michael McCormack – look at those city dwellers quaffing their tiny cofffees!”

    MicMac out of touch with his constituency. I really enjoy my coffee – and so do the locals – at the Trial St Cafe, Uneke and several other coffee haunts whenever I’m on circuit in Wagga Wagga.

  29. Mexicanb:

    Precisely why I rate Swan is that he was treasurer in tough times. Costello spent his 12 years swinging in a hammock without a care in the world except to ponder how to spend (not save or invest) the billions treasury raked in via the mining boom.

    Much harder when you have to actually do stuff and make difficult decisions which is what Swan, Rudd and Gillard and their Cabinets had to do.

  30. Wayne Swan received the accolade of World’s Best Finance Minister (Treasurer) from a jury of his peers.

    Peter Costello?
    *crickets*

  32. Psyclaw:

    [‘RAA is a model of logical refutation of an opponent’s argument by applying a strict logical format…’]

    Are you referencing Karl Popper’s hypothesis of scientific knowledge? You know, science is not science until, that is, it can’t be refuted.

    https://www.iep.utm.edu/pop-sci/

  33. I may be mistaken but there seem to be a few brush fires breaking out within the Project ScoMo government.

    Wildfires would be bliss.

  34. Personally I rate Swan as treasurer because he had Rudd as his PM and Henry as his secretary.

    After they went he spent his last 3 years largely chasing that surplus rabbit down a hole and allowing Gillard and Mar’n fuck up our resource rent tax base. And the single mother pension. He missed the opportunity to invest massively in some long term meat and potato nation building infrastructure programs and did not bring back Working Nation, even though he ruminated about it …

  36. Fessy
    No disputing the response to the GFC but that was more Rudd/Henry than Swan’s doing then Swan basically couldn’t handle the media pushing for a surplus which was partly caused by his overoptimistic budget numbers, and he totally missed the memo from China on its economic direction.

    C@tmomma
    There wasn’t much competition at the time and the Europeans are still grabbing with the GFC.

  37. Andrew_Earlwood:

    [‘Trail Street Cafe. Damn you autocorrect!’]

    Please stop blaming autocorrect. Review your posts before posting. I’m perfect?

  38. Mexican

    The organisation which made the award said at the time that people would accuse them of awarding it to Swan on the basis that every other country was a basket case, but that that was a superficial judgement, and their assessment of his abilities went deeper than that.

  40. Costello came into the Treasury as Australia was on an upward trajectory out of recession. Then came the Mining Boom. All Costello had to do was show up at work to look like a genius. Costello, with Howard, through adding absurd middle class welfare measures and introducing new classes of rent-seekers, wrecked the Budget position, wrecking Australia’s national super system in the process, turning it into another tax dodge for the well off. It will take decades to repair the damage.

  44. Steve777
    The decision not to raise the super contribution was a major policy mistake and the changes to franking credits which has created a distorted market compared to other global markets but I think Howard and Costello deserve criticism for those decisions.

  46. With respect, lord god, Peg only posts anti-Labor dross

    Those stories are not anti-Labor dross. They are hard-hitting critiques that find their mark every single time. If they were dross the Labor supporters would never acknowledge them. The fact that the Labor supporters squeal so much about them tells you that they have some merit.

  47. “Please stop blaming autocorrect. Review your posts before posting. I’m perfect?”

    Fair cop Mavis, but I’m not likely to be that obsessed with spelling on Bludger. Especially when I’m gently soaking my liver in a nice Shiraz whilst watching season 3 of the Handmaid’s Tale.

    Blessed be the fruit.

  49. hard to measure treasurers….but Swan acted to massively reduce the gfc’s impact on
    Australia…….. hard to top. Costello introduced changes such as franking tax credits for those who pay no tax………… which cannot be substained.

  50. Steve777

    Ah the Costello years. Happy memories.
    .
    .
    Reserve Bank’s gold sale cost us $5bn

    The decision to sell the reserves was approved by then RBA governor Ian Macfarlane and then treasurer Peter Costello
    The decision to sell 167 tonnes of the bank’s reserves has cost the nation about $5 billion based on today’s soaring price of almost $1400 an ounce.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/reserve-banks-gold-sale-cost-us-5bn/news-story/ffb632d0dee80cfb7ac840a2002c8912

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