Another two bite the dust

Party deregistrations, issues polling, and locally relevant discussion of the performance of online pollsters in the US.

Some unrelated electoral news nuggets to keep things ticking over:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the deregistration of two right-wing minor parties, the more newsworthy of which was Cory Bernardi’s decision to decommission Australian Conservatives. This party owed its party registration to Bernardi’s position in the Senate, rather than its having 500 members, so the matter was entirely in his hands. In a sense, this also means an end to Family First, which won Senate seats at the 2004, 2013 and 2016 elections and had a presence in the South Australian upper house from 2002 to 2017, when it merged with Bernardi’s newly formed outfit. However, Family First appeared to lose energy as evangelical Christians increasingly preferred to direct their organisational efforts towards the Liberal Party, and was dominated in its later years by deep-pocketed former Senator Bob Day. Even further afield, the Rise Up Australia party, associated with controversial pastor Danny Nalliah of Catch the Fire Ministries, has voluntarily deregistered.

• JWS Research has released the latest results in its occasional series on issue salience, recording only one particularly noteworthy movement over the past three surveys: defence, security and terrorism, which only 20% now rate in the top five issues most warranting the attention of the federal government, down from 23% in February and 29% in November. “Performance index” measures for the government across the various issue areas have recorded little change post-election, except that “vision, leadership and quality of government” is up from 35% to 42% (which is still the fifth lowest out of 20 designated issue areas). The survey was conducted from June 26-30 from a sample of 1000.

• In the New York Times’ Upshot blog, Nate Cohn casts a skeptical eye over the record of online polling in the United States. It notes a Pew Research finding that YouGov’s “synthetic sampling” method achieves the best results out of the online pollsters, by which it “selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans”. Another survey that performed relatively well, VoteCast, did so by concurrently conducting a huge sample phone poll, results of which were used to calibrate the online component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,381 comments on “Another two bite the dust”

Comments Page 18 of 28
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  1. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, July 10, 2019 at 10:39 pm
    ______________________
    People here don’t understand you like I do!

  2. What C@t did was instead of actually posting something standard like ‘Sharkie will vote with the gov’, she posts something with innuendo, drawing people out and then snapping at them with her supposedly real information that was not that big of a deal. Of course if no one had called her out the innuendo would have stood. Classic bait and switch.

  3. nath says:
    Wednesday, July 10, 2019 at 10:47 pm
    What C@t did was instead of actually posting something standard like ‘Sharkie will vote with the gov’, she posts something with innuendo, drawing people out and then snapping at them with her supposedly real information that was not that big of a deal. Of course if no one had called her out the innuendo would have stood. Classic bait and switch.
    __________________________
    c@t is a multi millionaire property owner and has explosive dirt files on senior labor figures. I know because she told me so!

  5. Lars Von Trier @ #851 Wednesday, July 10th, 2019 – 10:49 pm

    nath says:
    Wednesday, July 10, 2019 at 10:47 pm
    What C@t did was instead of actually posting something standard like ‘Sharkie will vote with the gov’, she posts something with innuendo, drawing people out and then snapping at them with her supposedly real information that was not that big of a deal. Of course if no one had called her out the innuendo would have stood. Classic bait and switch.
    __________________________
    c@t is a multi millionaire property owner and has explosive dirt files on senior labor figures. I know because she told me so!

    You are a bs artist. That’s a stone cold fact.

    1. I rent a 2 bedroom house on an acreage owned by family friends. It’s up for sale now and so I will likely be moving to more modest surrounds pretty soon.

    2. I don’t have dirt files on senior Labor figures, however it WAS corroborated tonight that there are things that could come out about certain senior Labor figures if the media choose to do so at the next election.

    3. The obsession that you, nath and psyclaw have with me is weird. Such intense focus on every word, parsed and pulled apart and then twisted into pretzel shapes in order to craft a smear. Just pathetic.

  7. C@t:

    You mentioned a Mark Coyne earlier in respect to the rugby. Coynes are an Aboriginal family here, do you know if Mark is from here?

  14. I reckon if that guy is part of their family they would know about it. The try he scored to win the State of Origin for Queensland a few years ago was simply amazing and they would be so proud of him.

  15. C@t:

    I’ll ask next time I see them. I’ve never heard of him before, but that isn’t surprising seeing as I don’t follow rugby.

  19. Fancy that…a happy-clapper writes an Opinion piece for the SMH praising the PM for his overt religiosity.
    I find comfort in our secular society…I can’t be the only one who wants freedom FROM religion.
    My brother went to this author’s happy-clappy college and became a minister in what to me feels more like a cult than religion.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/pm-prays-with-us-and-refuses-to-keep-his-faith-in-a-box-amen-to-that-20190710-p525xi.html

  20. Oh dear. Barely one day after Ken Wyatt’s speech at the NPC and the Reactionary Conservatives in the Coalition are starting the wrecking process:

    The Morrison government’s plan for Indigenous recognition will need to clear the threat of a backbench veto, as Liberals and Nationals air their doubts about the constitutional reform after an ambitious new deadline was set to make the change within three years.

    …While the principle of Indigenous recognition has bipartisan support and Labor has pledged to work with the government, the concerns in the Coalition party room could make it impossible to create a voice in the constitution.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/indigenous-recognition-divides-coalition-ranks-20190710-p52606.html

    And worryingly, it looks like for every move made by the Morrison government the opinion of the IPA is being sought.

  21. Having transited through Jakarta recently this doesn’t surprise me at all. It was the worst I can remember seeing.

    The air pollution in Indonesia’s capital has become so bad that Jakarta regularly tops real-time charts of the world’s most polluted cities, prompting a group of residents to sue their president and other Government officials for not taking action.

    https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-10/indonesians-are-suing-government-over-jakarta-air-pollution/11291338

  22. The Government is so lucky Craig Kelly was saved from being dumped in preselection.

    He seems to be comparing an indigenous voice with apartheid.

    What a mental giant!

    He said setting up separate structures, even if the representative model was legislated rather than enshrined in the constitution, risked creating “a reverse form of what South Africa was a few years ago”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/11/craig-kelly-says-he-could-campaign-for-the-no-side-on-indigenous-recognition

  23. Barnyard in full Banjo Player mode – and if anyone would know about ‘barking mad’ it’s the BeetRooter. Wondering with this latest intervention, how long before this backbencher has a tilt at McCormack’s leadership?

    “Barnaby Joyce says the idea Australia can stop climate change is “barking mad”, and global warming is a better problem than the next ice age.

    The former Nationals leader once famously warned Australians they could pay $150 for a lamb roast, as a result of Julia Gillard’s carbon tax.

    Contrary to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate report, Mr Joyce is warning the climate change crisis campaign is overblown and says the push to reduce carbon emissions is pointless.

    “The very idea that we can stop climate change is barking mad. Climate change is inevitable, as geology has always shown,” Mr Joyce said in a Facebook post.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/07/10/barnaby-joyce-climate-change/

  24. New disclosures about lewd Trump video reveal his mastery of the GOP

    In this context, it’s fitting that a new account has emerged of Trump’s own biggest brush with political death over his own sexual misconduct: the controversy over the “Access Hollywood” tape, in which Trump boasted of repeatedly committing sexual assault with impunity.

    The new account of that affair — which shows that to a greater degree than previously known, leading Republicans privately thought Trump had disqualified himself, only to abruptly fall in line behind him — is deeply revealing as to Trump’s grasp of today’s GOP, and more broadly is depressingly symbolic of today’s culture of elite impunity.

    In all kinds of ways, of course, Trump himself demonstrates how deeply the culture of impunity has penetrated the GOP. We’ve seen bottomless self-dealing and a refusal to show minimal transparency on his business holdings; extensive and potentially criminal efforts to derail the Russia investigation; the refusal to hold the Saudis accountable for the dismembering of Jamal Khashoggi; maximal resistance to any and all congressional oversight; the turning loose of Attorney General William P. Barr on his political critics; Acosta’s potential survival; and so much more — much of it with nary a peep from Republicans.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/07/10/new-disclosures-about-lewd-trump-video-reveal-his-mastery-gop/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.9d7d1fa83337

  25. Democracy Busters R Us

    Two new chapters for their Trash the Environment Section

    1. Joyce STILL campaigning against climate action.
    2. Barilaro, bearing in mind the parlous state of the MDB, wants to deregister part or all of the Murray Valley National Park.

  26. phoenixRED,
    You could almost say that Trump has grabbed the GOP by the pussy and they let him because he’s a star. 😐

  27. Speechless!

    Pastor Mark Burns@pastormarkburns

    Christianity will survive without America, but America will not survive without Christianity. Liberals are trying to silence the voice of God. But God has raised up a leader in @realDonaldTrump to defend religious freedom. God has positioned Trump to position the Church to grow.

  28. Just the kind of smug little know-all we don’t need in Parliament.

    Victorian Liberal senator James Paterson was one of a number of Coalition politicians to express reservations to the media, telling Nine: “I will carefully consider any formal proposal for constitutional recognition, but any change that threatens our successful parliamentary system or one which treats Australians differently based on their race would be a backward step.”

  30. BIM

    The options appear to be:

    1. Nothing
    2. A mention in the preamble plus a legislated ‘voice’ aka ATSIC Mk2.
    3. A new Section in the body of the Constitution that provides for a representative Indigenous national body to provide formal advice to the Parliament with Parliament, as now, being able to ignore the advice.

  33. lizzie @ #878 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 7:40 am

    Just the kind of smug little know-all we don’t need in Parliament.

    Victorian Liberal senator James Paterson was one of a number of Coalition politicians to express reservations to the media, telling Nine: “I will carefully consider any formal proposal for constitutional recognition, but any change that threatens our successful parliamentary system or one which treats Australians differently based on their race would be a backward step.”

    Good to see the ratbag, monkey pod right-wing knuckledraggers coming out of the woodwork like angry ants, even in the absence of their King Tony. Still the same old divided rabble.

  35. @ACLU tweets

    Firing people because they are LGBTQ is employment discrimination. Federal protections for LGBTQ workers already exist under the Civil Rights Act of 1964, but the Trump administration is trying to roll back those rights.

    More than 40 civil rights organisations — including @ADL, @NAACP, @civilrightsorg, and @LawyersComm — agree that LGBTQ workers, particularly LGBTQ people of color, are protected from employment discrimination by existing civil rights law.

    Current and former elected officials from 34 states and Washington, DC also agree that workplace civil rights protections apply to LGBTQ people of all sexual orientations and gender identities.

    For decades, federal law has protected workers from losing their jobs because they are lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender. The Supreme Court should not reverse years of progress. https://www.aclu.org/blog/lgbt-rights/lgbt-nondiscrimination-protections/thousands-voices-are-telling-supreme-court-dont

    Religious freedom in the US

  36. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Crowe reports that Ken Wyatt is facing growing concerns in the Coalition party room over calls to create a “first Australians voice” to Federal Parliament.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/indigenous-recognition-divides-coalition-ranks-20190710-p52606.html
    Katharine Murphy says that the outspoken government conservative Craig Kelly has warned he and other Liberal and National colleagues could “actively campaign for the no side” if Ken Wyatt, pursues an ambitious proposal for constitutional recognition.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/11/craig-kelly-says-he-could-campaign-for-the-no-side-on-indigenous-recognition
    The PM’s very public appearances at the big Hillsong conference needs to be discussed says Stephen Fogarty,
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/pm-prays-with-us-and-refuses-to-keep-his-faith-in-a-box-amen-to-that-20190710-p525xi.html
    Stephen Bartholomeusz explains how iron ore mishaps have provided an unsustainable windfall for miners and Josh Frydenberg.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/iron-ore-mishaps-provide-unsustainable-windfall-for-miners-and-josh-frydenberg-20190710-p525vk.html
    Noel Towell writes that Albo might have bitten off more than he can chew by simultaneously taking on Setka and Morrison.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/albanese-s-fights-on-two-fronts-just-got-a-lot-uglier-20190710-p525yf.html
    According to Bevan Shields the department responsible for the nation’s metadata retention regime is falling behind on its legal obligation to tell the public how many times powerful new laws were used to intercept the communications of Australians, including journalists. Guess whose department that is!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/home-affairs-dragging-its-feet-on-metadata-reporting-obligation-20190709-p525nm.html
    Meanwhile the Commonwealth Ombudsman has urged the powerful Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security to remove Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton’s power to redact its reports, saying no other minister has that ability.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6265603/the-power-given-to-peter-dutton-that-no-other-minister-has/?cs=14225
    Angus Taylor has been accused of avoiding a state demand to reduce emissions in national energy policy by refusing to meet with the states.
    https://outline.com/qMgnvg
    David Crowe reports that Ken Wyatt has pledged to hold Indigenous recognition referendum within three years.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ken-wyatt-pledges-to-hold-indigenous-recognition-referendum-within-three-years-20190710-p525rg.html
    Workplace flexibility has its limits – bend too far and something breaks says Greg Jericho.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/11/workplace-flexibility-has-limits-bend-too-far-and-something-breaks
    Richard Denniss says that the only time the business community pretends to take economics seriously is when they want to slash their taxes – or other people’s wages.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/10/australias-business-lobby-has-mastered-the-art-of-dressing-self-interest-up-as-national-interest
    “Australia needs ‘fiscal stimulus’, but what does that actually mean?”, asks Stephen Koukoulas.
    https://thekouk.com/item/682-australia-needs-fiscal-stimulus-but-what-does-that-actually-mean.html
    Sam Maiden reports that Barnaby Joyce says the idea Australia can stop climate change is “barking mad”, and global warming is a better problem than the next ice age. HE’S what’s mad!
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/07/10/barnaby-joyce-climate-change/
    Marise Payne has faced awkward questions on the government’s domestic record while at a ministerial conference on media freedom in London.
    https://outline.com/L2dAH4
    At the same conference lawyer Amal Clooney has joined the foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, in criticising Donald Trump’s attacks on the media, saying the US president has emboldened individuals who wish to persecute journalists.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/jul/10/trumps-rhetoric-makes-journalists-vulnerable-to-abuse-says-amal-clooney
    Peter Martin explains deeming.
    https://theconversation.com/deeming-rates-explained-what-is-deeming-how-does-it-cut-pensions-and-why-do-we-have-it-120089
    Jennifer Duke tells us that competition tsar Rod Sims has heaped further doubt on Telstra’s ability to buy the NBN, as rival telcos backed the government on blocking the telco.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/telstra-purchase-of-nbn-inappropriate-competition-watchdog-20190710-p525to.html
    NBN faces a medium term threat to its business model from mobile network operators because of the high cost of its wholesale access charges. This adds to the problems facing communications minister Paul Fletcher says the AFR.
    https://outline.com/WkqH5S
    Fed-up phone and internet users flooded Australia’s telco providers with nearly half a million complaints over a period of just three months, a new report has shown.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2019/07/10/telco-consumer-complaints/
    And the ACCC has in its sights ads that overstate what is possible on specific plans and those that create a false urgency for customers.
    https://outline.com/eDvU52
    It looks like we’re heading for major trouble on the waterfront again.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/tvs-cheese-wine-in-limbo-as-wharfies-walk-out-over-automation-plans-20190710-p525qj.html
    Shoppers are becoming increasingly concerned about the state of the economy, despite the prospect of income tax cuts and cheaper mortgages reports Shane Wright. High end tax cuts are not going to fix this!
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/troubling-consumer-confidence-drops-to-two-year-low-despite-tax-and-rate-cuts-20190710-p525t0.html
    The National Irrigators Council (does that sound a bit like a lobby group to you?) puts its position on the MDB plan.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/murray-darling-success-18-sydney-harbours-returned-to-rivers-while-towns-thrive-20190710-p525v8.html
    Gladys Berejiklian says the system of regulation in the building industry is not working, after the Sydney Morning Herald revealed the evacuation of a third apartment building in Sydney. So what now?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/it-hasn-t-worked-premier-admits-sydney-s-building-industry-is-failing-20190710-p52601.html
    Australia could quickly solve the problem of Indonesia and other countries rejecting its waste if governments invested in recycling manufacturing as promised and required the use of recycled material in public projects, industry and environmental groups say.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/11/australia-urged-to-invest-in-recycling-manufacturing-after-indonesia-sends-rubbish-back
    Chloe Adams is disturbed by the massive change in our children’s classrooms brought about by the ubiquitous presence of iPads.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/why-i-am-disturbed-by-the-massive-change-in-our-children-s-classrooms-20190705-p524jn.html
    In the wake of the resignation of the UK ambassador to the US Nick Miller tells us that there is more to come on the weekend as the Mail plans to reveal further content from the leaked papers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/uk-ambassador-resigns-after-calling-trump-inept-and-incompetent-20190710-p5262w.html
    Donald Trump’s role in the Washington ambassador’s exit has driven a stake through the heart of the UK’s postwar self-image writes Martin Kettle.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/10/after-kim-darroch-britain-risks-becoming-vassal-to-united-states
    Here’s today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/despicable-financial-planner-jailed-for-10-years-for-stealing-5m-20190710-p525y4.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and the road to indigenous recognition.

    David Pope on our sorry history of environment ministers.

    Andrew Dyson and Trump’s trade talks.

    From Matt Golding.






    Matt Davidson with Ken Wyatt.

    Mark David returns to the MDB.

    Glen Le Lievre.

    Alan Moir doesn’t hold out much hope for Labor.

    Jon Kudelka – there is hope.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/1bd2c91679341025bed30c796c170888?width=1024

    From the US







  38. Morning all and thanks BK for today’s wrap.

    How unsurprisement that the Monkey Pod are uprising over constitutional recognition for our First Australians!

  39. How bloody depressing reading that article by Noel Towell about Albanese’s twin demons, Setka and Morrison.

    Honestly, if Setka is kept on by his union it serves to put women’s issues, and the union movement championing them, back just as far as any Religious Right putsch will.

  40. On the Barnaby Joyce thing. It was not just North Queenslanders voting LNP that voted for that idiocy.
    The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.

    And yes politicians time to start calling them idiots just like we have done with anti vaxxers science has to count

  41. BK
    Thank you. I suggest the knuckledraggers will ‘compromise’ on a mention in the Preamble… NOT in the Constitution and some sort of watered-down legislated ‘voice’. They will ensure the ‘Voice’ will be underfunded in order to gut it from the getgo.
    As Barilaro wants to demonstrate with respect to the Murray Valley National Park what can be legislated can just as easily be unlegislated.
    A legislated Voice will be back to taws: subject to the whims of white people.

  43. Someone on The Drum last night kept insisting that the fact that Australia passed the original referendum on Indigenous recognition meant that they would be well-intentioned on the next one.

    This is not the same Australia.

  44. I guess this is the fight the Indigenous Australians had to have with the Whitefellas. I hope they have the mettle to stand their ground against the undermining that has started from Day 1.

    It’s good to see that 3 of the strongest voices for Indigenous Australia, Ken Wyatt, Linda Burney and Ben Wyatt (as WA Indigenous Affairs Minister), are in parliaments and will be major contributors to the process. The Conservative dogs might bark but they may have left their run too late. One of them is not Indigenous Affairs Minister and Scott Morrison has said he wants this done. I just don’t know if he can override a backbench veto?

  46. A necessary prerequisite for a referendum to succeed in Australia is bipartisan support. Already the coalition are demonstrating they can’t even manage that!

  47. ABC The Drum
    ‏
    “The idea of the voice was to inform not to dictate. To make sure MPs are well informed in relation to the wishes, needs & the impact a law would have on Aboriginal people- but also as representatives of the Australian people (to) take into account other things.” Anne Twomey #TheDrum

  48. @_sara_jade_ tweets

    Perth Pentecostal church’s rule allowing it to expel mentally ill is ‘out of touch with humanity’ https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/perth-pentecostal-churchs-rule-allowing-it-to-expel-mentally-ill-is-out-of-touch-with-humanity-ng-b88369500z?utm_campaign=share-
    icons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&tid=1562743952498

    @MotherJones tweets

    In the American legal system, corporations and even ships have rights. Should lakes, forests, and rivers?

    “We have the capacity to recognize the rights of whomever and whatever we want. It’s just a matter of determining what’s important to us.” http://bit.ly/2LIwH4F

  49. lizzie

    It’s the Australia which voted for Marriage Equality, however – something which wouldn’t have even been considered back then.

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