Another two bite the dust

Party deregistrations, issues polling, and locally relevant discussion of the performance of online pollsters in the US.

Some unrelated electoral news nuggets to keep things ticking over:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the deregistration of two right-wing minor parties, the more newsworthy of which was Cory Bernardi’s decision to decommission Australian Conservatives. This party owed its party registration to Bernardi’s position in the Senate, rather than its having 500 members, so the matter was entirely in his hands. In a sense, this also means an end to Family First, which won Senate seats at the 2004, 2013 and 2016 elections and had a presence in the South Australian upper house from 2002 to 2017, when it merged with Bernardi’s newly formed outfit. However, Family First appeared to lose energy as evangelical Christians increasingly preferred to direct their organisational efforts towards the Liberal Party, and was dominated in its later years by deep-pocketed former Senator Bob Day. Even further afield, the Rise Up Australia party, associated with controversial pastor Danny Nalliah of Catch the Fire Ministries, has voluntarily deregistered.

• JWS Research has released the latest results in its occasional series on issue salience, recording only one particularly noteworthy movement over the past three surveys: defence, security and terrorism, which only 20% now rate in the top five issues most warranting the attention of the federal government, down from 23% in February and 29% in November. “Performance index” measures for the government across the various issue areas have recorded little change post-election, except that “vision, leadership and quality of government” is up from 35% to 42% (which is still the fifth lowest out of 20 designated issue areas). The survey was conducted from June 26-30 from a sample of 1000.

• In the New York Times’ Upshot blog, Nate Cohn casts a skeptical eye over the record of online polling in the United States. It notes a Pew Research finding that YouGov’s “synthetic sampling” method achieves the best results out of the online pollsters, by which it “selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans”. Another survey that performed relatively well, VoteCast, did so by concurrently conducting a huge sample phone poll, results of which were used to calibrate the online component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,381 comments on “Another two bite the dust”

  1. The thing I can’t understand is why so many people are standing up for a guy convicted of such a series of serious domestic violence incidents, the most serious it seems were plea-bargained away, that he and his lawyers felt he had no choice but to plead guilty?

    What does it say about your attitudes in general to domestic violence that you want to minimise it as much as possible and make excuses for the guy? Simply because he leads a union!?!

  2. Henry says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 10:14 pm

    It has to be said nath, you are pretty fucking boring.
    ________________
    not as boring as cricket updates I reckon.

  3. zoomster @ #1343 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 10:08 pm

    C@

    Just pointing out a potential danger – do you really think the msm won’t play those kind of games, given the chance?

    No I don’t actually, and anyway, if they do then they better be even-handed and mete out the same opprobrium to any other prominent public figure convicted of same.

    However, the point that seems to have been missed here is that, as far as the Setka matter goes the basis for the request to have him expelled from the ALP is that he’s a very loose cannon who has threatened to do some very nasty things that go beyond the pale. On top of his recent conviction. As far as I know it’s the pattern of behaviour and his recalcitrance when it comes to altering it. So, not a fit and proper person to be a member of the ALP.

  4. nath:

    [‘not as boring as cricket updates I reckon.’]

    Please excuse me, but I’ve followed cricket for some sixty years, cognisant of the fact that this is a political site. But, it’s a one-off – the World Cup.

  5. Mavis Davis says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 10:26 pm

    nath:

    [‘not as boring as cricket updates I reckon.’]

    Please excuse me, but I’ve followed cricket for some sixty years, cognisant of the fact that this is a political site. But, it’s a one-off – the World Cup.
    _______________
    Sorry Mavis. But I gave up on Cricket after the 2005 Ashes series. There is simply not enough time to follow more than one sport and AFL is my first love.

  6. Correct fess. Polls can officially be classed as useless.
    Doesn’t matter what they do or what they predict, they will have no credibility for at least the next three years until they get it close to being right on the day.

  7. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 10:30 pm

    NOTHING in this world will ever be as boring as nath’s Bill Shorten obsession.
    _____________________
    On the contrary. My searching critique of Shorten over the past year has elevated the discussion section of this blog into new territory. There was the detailed and informative discussions on his AWU deals, the nose picking and eating revelations (with video footage). A brilliant exploration of Shorten’s Napoleon fixation. Although, Napoleon won most of his engagements. And much more. Decades from now political historians will no doubt examine my input for context on the failure of Shorten in the 2013-1019 years.

  8. It’s Time
    Get out their openers in the first five overs and they might collapse. If they survive the first ten overs we are farked.

  9. nath:

    [‘Sorry Mavis. But I gave up on Cricket after the 2005 Ashes series. There is simply not enough time to follow more than one sport and AFL is my first love.’]

    Please come to terms with your obsession. There are only three sports, aerial ping pong’s not one of them, in my respectful opinion. I rate rugger, cricket, tennis as the best.

  10. shellbell says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 9:21 pm

    Hopefully Tim Paine will see the writing on the wall and quietly retire after the Ashes having enjoyed a distinguished career .

    Not in a huff like Healy did when Gilchrist was on his toes

    Gilchrist’s keeping wasn’t a patch on Healy’s when he came into the side. It did improve fairly quickly and he was rightly considered an exceptional keeper in the end. His batting alone was always worthy of a spot in the side.

  11. Oh dear, just home and turned on the telly to the BBC World Service (World News?).

    On the ticker tape at the bottom “England reach World Cup final with thrashing of Australia”.

    Glad I spent the afternoon in a tabac.

  12. Mavis Davis @ #1373 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 10:40 pm

    nath:

    [‘Sorry Mavis. But I gave up on Cricket after the 2005 Ashes series. There is simply not enough time to follow more than one sport and AFL is my first love.’]

    Please come to terms with your obsession. There are only three sports, aerial ping pong’s not one of them, in my respectful opinion. I rate rugger, cricket, tennis as the best.

    I hate all sport and root for whichever team is playing that isn’t Australia when these big events are on.
    Pretty sweet result last night I have to say.
    The fewer sporting ‘heroes’ the better.

  13. nath @ #1369 Thursday, July 11th, 2019 – 10:34 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, July 11, 2019 at 10:30 pm

    NOTHING in this world will ever be as boring as nath’s Bill Shorten obsession.
    _____________________
    On the contrary. My searching critique of Shorten over the past year has elevated the discussion section of this blog into new territory. There was the detailed and informative discussions on his AWU deals, the nose picking and eating revelations (with video footage). A brilliant exploration of Shorten’s Napoleon fixation. Although, Napoleon won most of his engagements. And much more. Decades from now political historians will no doubt examine my input for context on the failure of Shorten in the 2013-1019 years.

    Briefos Greens obsession is right up there

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