Another two bite the dust

Party deregistrations, issues polling, and locally relevant discussion of the performance of online pollsters in the US.

Some unrelated electoral news nuggets to keep things ticking over:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the deregistration of two right-wing minor parties, the more newsworthy of which was Cory Bernardi’s decision to decommission Australian Conservatives. This party owed its party registration to Bernardi’s position in the Senate, rather than its having 500 members, so the matter was entirely in his hands. In a sense, this also means an end to Family First, which won Senate seats at the 2004, 2013 and 2016 elections and had a presence in the South Australian upper house from 2002 to 2017, when it merged with Bernardi’s newly formed outfit. However, Family First appeared to lose energy as evangelical Christians increasingly preferred to direct their organisational efforts towards the Liberal Party, and was dominated in its later years by deep-pocketed former Senator Bob Day. Even further afield, the Rise Up Australia party, associated with controversial pastor Danny Nalliah of Catch the Fire Ministries, has voluntarily deregistered.

• JWS Research has released the latest results in its occasional series on issue salience, recording only one particularly noteworthy movement over the past three surveys: defence, security and terrorism, which only 20% now rate in the top five issues most warranting the attention of the federal government, down from 23% in February and 29% in November. “Performance index” measures for the government across the various issue areas have recorded little change post-election, except that “vision, leadership and quality of government” is up from 35% to 42% (which is still the fifth lowest out of 20 designated issue areas). The survey was conducted from June 26-30 from a sample of 1000.

• In the New York Times’ Upshot blog, Nate Cohn casts a skeptical eye over the record of online polling in the United States. It notes a Pew Research finding that YouGov’s “synthetic sampling” method achieves the best results out of the online pollsters, by which it “selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans”. Another survey that performed relatively well, VoteCast, did so by concurrently conducting a huge sample phone poll, results of which were used to calibrate the online component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,381 comments on “Another two bite the dust”

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  1. Jeffrey Epstein charged with federal sex trafficking crimes involving young girls

    Federal prosecutors unsealed new sex trafficking charges Monday against Jeffrey Epstein, alleging that the politically connected multimillionaire abused dozens of female minors at his Manhattan and Palm Beach, Fla., homes and enlisted his victims to expand a network of possible targets.

    U.S. Attorney Geoffrey Berman said at a news conference that Epstein, now 66, faces the possibility of 45 years in prison and that prosecutors will seek to have him detained pending trial.

    Prosecutors wrote in a court filing Monday seeking to keep Epstein behind bars that in a search of Epstein’s home this weekend, investigators “recovered hundreds — and perhaps thousands — of sexually suggestive photographs of fully- or partially- nude females,” some of which appear to be of underage girls. Some of the photographs were found in a locked safe on CDs with handwritten labels such as “Misc nudes 1” and “Girl pics nude,” prosecutors wrote.

    “The alleged behavior shocks the conscience,” Berman said, calling the victims “particularly vulnerable.”

    Shimon Prokupecz‏Verified account

    Prosecutors just told the court that in the last 36 hours the office has been contacted by attorneys and people who said they were victims, none of whom the office has previously spoken with.

  2. Oh look, Labor doing their homework and catching the government and Christian Porter in a lie:

    Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese on Monday challenged Attorney-General Christian Porter to explain whether he stood by a previous claim that there was “no evidence” ABC and News Corp reporters were the focus of law enforcement action.

  3. I’m glad 9Fairfax haven’t given up on hounding the AFP:

    The Australian Federal Police used national security laws to access the metadata of journalists nearly 60 times in just one year, according to a new disclosure that will be used to pressure the Morrison government to strengthen press freedom.

    As Labor demanded answers over revelations the AFP asked Qantas to hand over the private travel records of a senior ABC journalist, documents submitted to a review of Australia’s mandatory data retention regime have for the first time revealed the extent to which police have examined the communications history of reporters.

    And before The Greens’ luvvies jump in with their tired trope that ‘Labor voted for these laws’ (we’ve done that one to death, okay?), can you just note who is doing the running on this? Yes, it’s the Labor Party.

  4. Straight up, Jeffrey Epstein is a paedophile.

    C@tmomma, I’m increasingly wondering why it is that I allow you to post here. You’re inexcusably nasty, won’t shut up, and haven’t got a brain in your head.

  5. William Bowe @ #3 Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 – 7:17 am

    Straight up, Jeffrey Epstein is a paedophile.

    C@tmomma, I’m increasingly wondering why it is that I allow you to post here. You’re inexcusably nasty, won’t shut up, and haven’t got a brain in your head.

    So delete it then.

    Anyway, the decision, as always is yours to make.

  6. C@t, I can’t allow someone to post here if they repeatedly ignore the rules of sub judice, as you have brazenly done on quite a number of occasions. I suspect I’m not going to lose an eye over a high-profile case in America, but that certainly wasn’t the case a couple of weeks ago when you openly discussed the fact that John Setka’s wife was the recipient of his abusive text messages. What the fuck is wrong with you?

  7. @AnodyneParadigm
    11h11 hours ago

    Crimes in Australia ranked by profitability:
    1. Water theft
    2. Banking
    3. Energy retailing
    4. Greenhouse gas abatement projects (ERF)
    4. Aged care provision
    5. Childcare provision
    …how good is neoliberalism…and LNP Coalition.
    And their mantra…red tape reduction!

  8. @AnodyneParadigm
    10h10 hours ago

    Sorry #4corners but you tread very, very lightly with Webster Limited, and made no attempt to highlight it’s high profile chair, Chris Corrigan, of the Patrick waterfront dispute infamy, and his links to LNP elite

  9. Good Morning

    William I think the satire in this will pass muster on the defamation. If not please delete/

    @chaser tweets

    Breaking: A court has ruled that media companies are responsible for defamatory comments made the public on their social media, so we are begging you not to reply to this describing Rupert Murdoch as a wrinkled old prune

  10. @1petermartin tweets

    The Murray-Darling Basin scandal. Economists have seen it coming for decades: @JohnQuiggin @UQ_News @ConversationEDU #auspol #ausecon @4corners

    @msarto tweets
    Peter Costello’s message to Christians: ‘suck it up’, just like Jesus

  11. Editor behind Epstein exposé drops mysterious assertion: He has ‘important information if he chooses to use it’

    Speaking with host Alisyn Camerota, Herald editor Casey Frank noted that Epstein was able to avoid any real jail time when his case was plea-bargained out by former Florida U.S. Attorney Alex Acosta — now Trump’s Labor Secretary — but that he will have his hands full with the new federal charges in New York.

    “It’s possible, maybe we’ll find that out in the coming weeks,” Frank replied. “Mr. Epstein is facing some heavy charges and he also has some important information, useful information in his pocket should he care to use it. He had a number of enablers, many high profile friends. You just mentioned one of them, Mr. Trump. Former President Bill Clinton is another.”

    “It’s hard not to draw that conclusion that somehow he is able to skirt the law because he has dirt on powerful people,” Camerota pressed.

    “Well, he’s gotten away with it once,” the editor suggested. “Donald Trump making that public statement, Bill Clinton. He’s got a lot of friends in high places. If he has information about somebody at a much higher level in government, yeah, he’s still got the ability to bargain.”

  12. William Bowe @ #8 Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 – 7:24 am

    C@t, I can’t allow someone to post here if they repeatedly ignore the rules of sub judice, as you have brazenly done on quite a number of occasions. I suspect I’m not going to lose an eye over a high-profile case in America, but that certainly wasn’t the case a couple of weeks ago you openly discussed the fact that John Setka’s wife was the recipient of his abusive text messages. What the fuck is wrong with you?

    I get it about Jeffrey Epstein, however, wrt Setka, you may not have noticed but it was Phil Coorey in an article in the AFR who first outed Setka’s wife as being the subject of the court case. So it was only after that that I thought it was okay to say it too.

    Was I right or wrong to think that and act accordingly?

  13. Joke of the morning.

    Lyle Shelton@LyleShelton
    13h13 hours ago

    If @QandA really wanted to connect with mainstream Australia they would be talking to @rowandean.

  14. Cat

    Sometimes its better just to post an article and make no comment on it so its the publication that cops the defamation and not yourself.

    At the very least use the word alleged when a court case is ongoing so its clear you personally are not adding to the allegations and shield William to some degree from defamation action.

    That will cover most cases as long as the discussion doesn’t go into details on an ongoing case.

  15. The attempts to pressure charities into political silence don’t happen in isolation – Brad Chilcott (The Guardian):

    “In our democracy, an environmental group can quietly plant trees but cannot say: ‘If you want to save this forest you will need to vote for The Forest Saving Party’ – even if the published policy platforms and public statements of the various political parties demonstrate this as an objective truth. Charities cannot donate to political parties, cannot support a candidate, cannot support a political party, cannot hand out how to vote cards. They may campaign for people to ‘vote to end homelessness’ but not say which party’s policies they believe will lead to that outcome. There are no such restrictions on corporations, industry groups, the Pharmacy Guild, the Minerals Council of Australia or the gambling industry who are able to influence public policy, voter intentions and donate to parties and candidates freely.”

  16. sub judice
    /sʌb ˈdʒuːdɪsi,sʊb ˈjuːdɪkeɪ/
    under judicial consideration and therefore prohibited from public discussion elsewhere.

    I think that is strong word there @William

    Until the media are held accountable posters shouldn’t be.

    The old saying goes…. Tit for Tat

  17. Morning all. The New Daily quite rightly points out that the LNPs shenanigans on deeming rates is costing well healed pensioners money. Given that this group is both mostly wealthy (or at least asset rich) and voted for the ad-man with blind loyalty, forgive me for not feeling sorry for them.

    Scomo or Josh could stop this tomorrow as it is a regulation. Thanks for taxing wealthy retirees, Scomo! I hope by pointing out this is socially progressive it does not stop you doing it.

  18. News Breakfast

    Verified account

    1h1 hour ago

    Authorities have defended the Murray-Darling Basin Plan off the back of last night’s @4corners investigation, saying the issue has been overstated.

    But @RichardCBeasley is having none of it, and has backed the reporting.

    “They’re wrong. And they know they’re wrong.”

  19. C@tmomma @ #5 Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 – 5:12 am

    And before The Greens’ luvvies jump in with their tired trope that ‘Labor voted for these laws’ (we’ve done that one to death, okay?), can you just note who is doing the running on this? Yes, it’s the Labor Party.

    Seriously, what exactly is Labor, or even Labor + Greens + Crossbench + press gallery + anyone else going to do to “pressure” the government? It is now the law of the land and so gives the government a perfect excuse to run a “soft on crime” campaign against any who try and put “pressure” on them.

    Also, why not put pressure on the government to protect the freedoms of everyone else besides the press? Aren’t the liberties of everyone just as important?

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Outline seems to be broken today.

    John Quiggin says that economists have seen the Murray-Darling Basin scandal coming for decades.
    Here’s Neil McMahon’s take on last night’s Q and A. I thought it was a pretty good panel.
    Yesterday Trump attacked Theresa May and her ambassador to Washington on Monday while Britain voiced regret for a leak of confidential memos in which the diplomat called Trump’s administration “dysfunctional” and “inept”. The truth hurts sometimes!
    Washington ambassador Kim Darroch did nothing wrong. But the episode has undermined trust within the Foreign Office says the UK Guardian.
    The Australian reports that Frydenberg has repudiated calls for the government to provide further fiscal stimulus to the economy, declaring it would put the ­surplus at risk and represent a major misreading of the Reserve Bank’s calls for ­action to help boost growth. Google.


    Angus Thomson reports that an inquest into the deaths of six young people was told yesterday that almost all patrons at music festivals take illicit substances, with MDMA the “drug of choice”. Bloody hell!
    Rod Meyer reports that the government is blocking attempts by interest groups to uncover how pension deeming rates are determined, as criticism of current deeming levels reaches fever pitch.
    Professor of international law Hossein Esmaeili tells us why we must think very carefully before committing to war in the Gulf.
    The accumulation of evidence that the Liberal and National parties work for foreign interests is now higher than ever, writes Alan Austin.,12877
    Tim Costello has called on his fellow Christians to “calm down” about their alleged persecution, amid a brewing political storm over how the government should act to protect against religious discrimination.
    A Guardian editorial on religious freedom is well summed up by “You can believe what you like if you do not act to harm others,”
    A government push to prevent “indirect” religious discrimination needs to be matched with new federal protections against hate speech and vilification, LGBTQI advocacy group Equality Australia says.
    A growing rage over the exponential damage to Australia’s forests, rivers and wildlife, is spreading across the country writes Sue Arnold.,12878
    How Netflix and the streaming revolution killed the NBN’s dream of superfast broadband on fixed wireless.
    Documents prepared by the AFP show investigators were granted two special “journalist information warrants” in the 2017-18 financial year, and used those warrants to access journalist metadata on 58 separate occasions.
    Nicole Hasham reports that Rex Patrick says the Morrison government has agreed to act against gas pipeline companies who drive up consumer power costs as the Coalition courts the influential minor party. Now, will the government effectively follow through on these assurances?
    Dutton publicly censured his senior officials for cutting border patrols to save money despite a day earlier waving through the department’s far-ranging plans to dramatically slash spending. What a champ!
    Scott Morrison has a new obsession — the budget surplus. In spite of his assurances to the contrary, this has not actually been delivered and there are growing doubts that it will be, says Mungo MacCallum.,12880
    Analysis by a former Productivity Commission economist and education researcher finds that the deal between the Victorian and federal governments will short-change state schools and has accused politicians of using accounting tricks.
    It’s John Jarrett’s turn to sue the pants off The Daily Telegraph mow.
    Anna Patty tells us how staff at the luxury Escarpment Group of Blue Mountains hotels have been warned against talking to the media or they will face the threat of legal action and fines. The subject of exploitation is at the centre of it.
    Friend of the rich and powerful Jeffrey Epstein earns nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe with the AFP and Qantas.

    Alan Moir takes aim at Angus Taylor.

    David Pope and the Uluru statement.

    A warning from Andrew Dyson.

    From Matt Golding.

    Mark David’s on the money here!

    Glen Le Lievre thinks Morrison is getting it easy.

    Jon Kudelka introduces journo class to flying in Australia.

    From the US.

  21. ‘Stuart Johnson

    13h13 hours ago
    Replying to @Pollytics
    For anyone doubting it, I crunched some of the numbers here …, no QLD seat was possibly affected by Palmer prefs, in fact I see Bass as the only real possibility anywhere in the country.’

    As I’ve said previously, Palmer said before the election that he was out to win government. After the election, when he’d failed at that, he said he was out to make sure Shorten didn’t win government.

    But apparently a number of people saw the second comment not as a desperate attempt to spin a failure but as gospel.

    I’m always a little amused when I see posters here segue from ‘no politician can be trusted’ to ‘this politician said this so it must be the truth.”

  22. Dan

    I will just add something to that. Saying its the Greens fault when critics come calling is a fail. Thats shooting the messenger. It doesn’t matter if its the LNP Independents One Nation or even Fraser Anning or Fred Nile.

    If the critics have points they have points no matter how much some Labor people may not like it and saying oh its the Greens we can dismiss it is what is wrong with a lot of rusted on Labor people thinking.

  23. Shimon ProkupeczVerified account@ShimonPro
    7h7 hours ago
    I think this is one of the most significant cases brought by the SDNY.. Important work by the FBI the prosecutors for the victims.

    Apparently James Comey’s daughter worked on the case with SDNY. And the Miami Herald also played a big role in continuing to investigate the claims against Epstein after his light sentencing a decade ago.

  24. The thing is, guytaur, unless the Greens are some superhumans who happened to have descended on earth with the intention of starting a political party, they must make some errors some time. In which case, like any other political party not made up of perfect superhumans, they should be called out for these (even if other parties have made bigger or similar errors).

    To hold otherwise is a lot of rusted on Green thinking.

  25. People are finally questioning the wisdom of ploughing billions into large transport projects (with limited planning or economic analysis) to stimulate the economy. IF we are only doing it to employ people we would be better off building housing, or road maintenance and other small projects that never get done, like safety improvements and public transport. As for the big projects, lets see some planning and assessment to prove they are justified first.

  26. BK

    It was good to see the warmongers being shot down on Qanda last night. It is interesting that the sentiment seems to reflect the polling William posted above on security.

    The forces of the dark have been yelling national security on boats for so long its had the effect of crying wolf.

  27. Zoomster

    Thanks for proving my point. You just shot the messenger because the word Green was in there. I at no time asserted the Greens were perfect

  28. Soc

    I’m a bit tired of having the main street of our small country town ripped up every ten years or so so that a new lot of pavers and struggling small trees can replace the old pavers and the existing trees.

    Months of disruption, sod all difference.

    There’s a disconnect – enormous amounts of money floating around, available for projects like this, and other areas crying out for cash.

  29. Thanks BK. As for the Murray Darling basin funding scandal, well at least I can take comfort that little Seb Joyce will no doubt have a secure financial future now. No corruption to see here.

  30. One of the many scandalous happenings in the MDB rorts was that Murray water ‘saved for the environment’ was then sold to the Murrumbidgee Irrigators.

  31. Zoom

    I was talking about doing basic maintenance, not vanity projects. I agree the latter can be questionable. Adelaide Council spent something like $30 million repaving Rundle Mall a few years back. I’d love to see the management fees. Meanwhile they haven’t fixed broken vehicle detectors or updated CBD signal phasing in years. So we routinely wait at CBD traffic lights when there is no traffic coming on the other approaches.

  32. Morning all

    Much thanks BK

    The Epstein matter has finally moved up a notch.
    It is a very important case due to the lenient sentence he received back in the day. These children may finally see justice served.
    And I daresay many of the movers and shakers connected with Epstein may be just a little stressed out right at this moment.

  33. As Christine Milne posted last night it was no wonder the government did not want any public servants testifying at the South Australia Royal Commission into the MDB.

    Thats what should happen now. A Royal Commission to get to the bottom of it all.

  34. lizzie
    “One of the many scandalous happenings in the MDB rorts was that Murray water ‘saved for the environment’ was then sold to the Murrumbidgee Irrigators.

    I am no lawyer but that almost sounds like fraud. Most legislation specifies a limited range of purposes for which powers may be used.

  35. Soc

    Yes, I was just musing on ‘make work’ schemes.

    So this is another segue – years ago, when I was running for re election to council, I doorknocked the local area extensively.

    The Shire had, in the previous term, won millions of dollars in grants to refurbish the main street, renovate some key public buildings, and build new infrastructure.

    The people I talked to weren’t interested. They wanted the footpaths outside their homes repaired and the drains fixed.

    The problem is, of course, than no pollie has ever got an inch of media through opening a newly repaired stretch of footpath or a new drain.

  36. Seems the only way to get MSM attention is a juicy sex scandal. But would that even bring down a pollie? Rorting billions of dollars from us, killing a river system and sending communities broke just doesn’t cut it in the sexy stakes.

  37. Thanks BK.
    The Crooks and Liars Democracy Busters R Us are into yet another couple of couple of chapters for their Omerta Section:
    (1) accessing journo’s metadata dozens of times
    (2) the fact hiding results of refusing Fed public servants to be witnesses in the South Australian Royal Commission
    (3) the fact hiding of the details of tens of millions of contracts with the Patrick-related Webster Irrigation businesses being hidden from the taxpayer
    (4) the fact hiding in the lack of accountability of where the MDB water is and where it is going
    (5) the fact hiding in the bidness of selling low reliability cross country flood water at twice the going rate to the Government and then buying high reliability in the southern Basin for half that amount.

    It does rather put into context the full press campaign to allow poor Izzy the freedom to hate monger.
    Hey, People of God, look over there: a unicorn!

  38. Confessions

    The reason I am now predicting Warren will win the nomination is the Third Way crowd is on record saying they could accept Warren but will fight Sanders.

    With luck we will get Warren running for President Pete Buttigieg VP and Kamala Harris for Attorney General.

  39. lizzie:

    The Epstein case is more than just ‘a juicy sex scandal’. The man has been charged with criminal acts, and from the unsealed indictment, some of the allegations are horrific.

    But I agree with you that nobody is going to be held responsible for the scandalous mismanagement and possible corruption surrounding the MDB. If Labor kick up a fuss like they did with predatory beahviour of the big 4 banks, it might get some traction.

  40. Confessions

    I expect calls for a Royal Commission from Labor. Besides being the best way to get to the bottom of the matter, politically its an issue that means the Nationals lose seats in elections.

  41. Fess

    Hopefully it will be ascertained how Epstein was able to amass billions of dollars. This too, will be part of the story. If the whole truth is to come out, it will be the shock and awe I have been sensing re Trump and many others from both sides of the aisle.
    And from what has been reported over time, It is a case of trafficking minors. Money laundering and blackmail and espionage.

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