Another two bite the dust

Party deregistrations, issues polling, and locally relevant discussion of the performance of online pollsters in the US.

Some unrelated electoral news nuggets to keep things ticking over:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the deregistration of two right-wing minor parties, the more newsworthy of which was Cory Bernardi’s decision to decommission Australian Conservatives. This party owed its party registration to Bernardi’s position in the Senate, rather than its having 500 members, so the matter was entirely in his hands. In a sense, this also means an end to Family First, which won Senate seats at the 2004, 2013 and 2016 elections and had a presence in the South Australian upper house from 2002 to 2017, when it merged with Bernardi’s newly formed outfit. However, Family First appeared to lose energy as evangelical Christians increasingly preferred to direct their organisational efforts towards the Liberal Party, and was dominated in its later years by deep-pocketed former Senator Bob Day. Even further afield, the Rise Up Australia party, associated with controversial pastor Danny Nalliah of Catch the Fire Ministries, has voluntarily deregistered.

• JWS Research has released the latest results in its occasional series on issue salience, recording only one particularly noteworthy movement over the past three surveys: defence, security and terrorism, which only 20% now rate in the top five issues most warranting the attention of the federal government, down from 23% in February and 29% in November. “Performance index” measures for the government across the various issue areas have recorded little change post-election, except that “vision, leadership and quality of government” is up from 35% to 42% (which is still the fifth lowest out of 20 designated issue areas). The survey was conducted from June 26-30 from a sample of 1000.

• In the New York Times’ Upshot blog, Nate Cohn casts a skeptical eye over the record of online polling in the United States. It notes a Pew Research finding that YouGov’s “synthetic sampling” method achieves the best results out of the online pollsters, by which it “selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans”. Another survey that performed relatively well, VoteCast, did so by concurrently conducting a huge sample phone poll, results of which were used to calibrate the online component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,381 comments on “Another two bite the dust”

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  2. Scott Morrison has a new obsession — the budget surplus. In spite of his assurances to the contrary, this has not actually been delivered and there are growing doubts that it will be, says Mungo MacCallum.

    And, going by Frydenburg’s comments, the Morrison government are going to move heaven and earth to get a Surplus. Mainly because the derision they rained down on Labor and Wayne Swan for not getting one is fresh in their minds and Labor would be just waiting to pounce if the shoe is on the other foot.

  3. Has a single journalist asked Morrison whether he is concerned about Australia’s galloping extinction crisis and the holocaust of wildlife happening out in the bush as a result of his Government’s policies?
    No?

  4. It would be the sweetest victory of all if it was the home of the Trumps, New York, that took them down once and for all.

  5. Fess

    And not forgetting that Trumps dept of Labor secretary Acosta drafted the agreement for Epstein make in 2007.
    Yeah I know just a mere coincidence

  6. Victoria

    Of course we need more than comments on Twitter, but Labor needs to play this carefully, as naturally the first thing Coal will say is that it was all Labor’s idea. According to 4C, the most big dam development has taken place in the last five years.

  7. Boerwar @ #53 Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 – 8:54 am

    Has a single journalist asked Morrison whether he is concerned about Australia’s galloping extinction crisis and the holocaust of wildlife happening out in the bush as a result of his Government’s policies?
    No?

    No, because, look over there, Israel Folau’s religious freedom to be a bigot is being infringed. 😐

  8. I’m not affected by deeming rates, but why on earth are they not indexed annually? When cash rates are high deeming is effectively a giant rort shifting truckloads of cash to, in many cases, reasonably well-heeled retirees and now, with rates so low, retirees are feeling the pinch.

  9. C@t

    The journalist from the Miami Herald who did the expose of Epstein and the deal cooked up by Acosta, will in part be the one who ultimately takes them down. And she being a woman, will definitely be a karmic gift.
    Fancy Trump and co being taken down by a woman. Too good.

  10. lizzie

    Labor will cop blame for setting up the scheme in a bad way. The LNP will get blame for exploiting it. Thats a win for Labor with Nationals seats falling as a result. Labor can survive the LNP attack with not much political damage.

  11. Victoria:

    And that lone Republican who stood up in Congress and applauded SDNY for unsealing the indictment. He also mentioned Acosta and his role in negotiating that plea deal back in the day.

  12. I keep wondering what is happening wrt that other Florida sex trafficking case which also ensnared Trump donors and whose ‘massage parlour’ was just near Mar A Lago?

  13. C@tmomma @ #52 Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 – 8:53 am

    Scott Morrison has a new obsession — the budget surplus. In spite of his assurances to the contrary, this has not actually been delivered and there are growing doubts that it will be, says Mungo MacCallum.

    And, going by Frydenburg’s comments, the Morrison government are going to move heaven and earth to get a Surplus. Mainly because the derision they rained down on Labor and Wayne Swan for not getting one is fresh in their minds and Labor would be just waiting to pounce if the shoe is on the other foot.

    It looks like Australia may get the surplus it doesn’t really want.

  14. lizzie
    The response ignores the following:
    1. Massive capital gains (in some cases for foreign owned corporations) subsidized directly by taxpayer.
    2. The almost total lack of clarity about where water is, how much there is, and where it moves.
    3. The water theft.
    4. The way in which contract details are hidden from the taxpayers.
    5. Cross country water harvesting.
    6. The fact that not enough water is going to the MDB environment.
    7. The price paid for water of various levels of security by the Government and the price paid for the same water by private interests.

  15. Lizzie

    The MDB agreement that Labor eventually agreed to under pressure and blowback from the farmers (who can forget the carry on by them at the time), has not worked as intended.
    Therefore Labor can come and and say that it has been rorted and corrupted etc.
    Labor need to grow a big pair. Go hard or go home

  16. Vic,
    Sistas are doing it for themselves! 🙂

    But seriously, you have to wonder when the weight of shameful things associated with these prominent politicians will finally carve off the Evangelicals?

    Yes, probably the 12th of Never. They still have women’s bodies to gain control of legally. 😐

  18. They will get a surplus mainly because of high volumes and high prices for a single item: iron ore.
    And we all know which country is the main buyer of that iron ore.
    As the revenue falls back because of their tax cuts and as the iron ore price falls back once the Brazilian producers swing into full production after their collapsing dams nightmares, a structural deficit looms.

  21. The Greens party has been raising issues re MDB plan for a long time.

    On February 7, 2019, the Greens party released it’s
    ToR for a Royal Commission into the Murray Darling Basin plan:

    https://greensmps.org.au/articles/greens%E2%80%99-murray-darling-basin-royal-commission-terms-released

    “In the meantime we need to urgently lift the freeze on water buybacks and get some environmental flows back into the river system. Saving this river is not going to be easy, but if we continue with business as usual it will die. There are no jobs, no river communities and no agriculture on a dead river.

    The Coalition’s response was a ringing wtte a royal commission was not needed.

    What was Labor’s response?

    April 22, pre-election it chose to focus on a couple of buybacks made in 2017 under the former agriculture minister Barnaby Joyce:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/22/labor-says-it-may-hold-royal-commission-into-murray-darling-water-scandal

    Labor’s environment spokesman, Tony Burke, has written to the Department of Environment asking it to release documents relating to the buybacks, and says the party will “wait and see” if a royal commission is needed.

  22. Boerwar

    I still haven’t calmed down after watching 4C. There are so many factors involved, and so many “unintended consequences”.
    I bet the excuses given by Cotton Fuhrer are used by Morrison govt., if they bother to respond at all.

  23. “Has a single journalist asked Morrison whether he is concerned about Australia’s galloping extinction crisis and the holocaust of wildlife happening out in the bush as a result of his Government’s policies?
    No?”

    Probably not much point.

    1. He doesn’t care.
    2. If asked he’ll ignore the question and blather and bluster
    3. It’s Labor’s fault.

  25. @C@tmomma

    If a recession comes and the government decides to impose the sort of austerity which the Conservatives in Britain have imposed, in an effort to at least balance the budget. Then it would be a fantastic political opportunity for Labor to argue for stimulus measures to achieve economic recovery.

  26. Major media outlets’ coverage of the government’s tax cut package focused heavily on race-calling and spruiking the benefits of the package ahead of examining the fiscal and social impacts of the package, an analysis by Crikey shows.
    We examined the coverage of the tax cuts package before and after the election in the Nine newspapers, the ABC and The Australian, culminating in headlines about the government’s “triumph” in securing Senate passage of the cuts first announced in the April budget.
    Out of 227 print and online pieces dealing with the tax cuts, just 25 provided any kind of fiscal and equity analysis of the package, which will fundamentally alter the progressive nature of Australia’s income tax system when Stage 3 of the package commences in 2024.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/07/08/tax-cuts-coverage-ignored-substance/

  27. I thought the 4C effort on the MDB was not at all overplayed. On the contrary, it studiously avoided assertions and insinuations that might have led to weakening the story they put forward.
    Now let’s see what the media and Labor, and oh yes the Greens, do with it.

  28. Thanks once again BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    A lot to get through although for this morning just the following item particularly drew my attention.

    Here’s Neil McMahon’s take on last night’s Q and A. I thought it was a pretty good panel.
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/muslim-lives-don-t-matter-q-and-a-panel-spars-on-nukes-minorities-20190709-p525cu.html

    The comments are at least as interesting as the article itself and I append a couple for interest.

    Make no mistake China, will dominate the world. China cleverly are buying all the necessary resources, educating their students . We are toast it just how burnt we will be.

    As surely as China rises it will fall, even the Chinese know that. A pity that people think it’s a good idea to potentially allow the deaths of millions of Chinese, Australian, Indonesian, Thai etc deaths before we get there.
    The solution that “we get some bombs ourselves” beggars belief. As does the idea that the Chinese will “respect” us if we do, is very low level thinking. Right down there with “obliteration Donald.”
    What a backward country we are rapidly becoming.

    Reality is that Australia, and pretty much the entire western world, has for decades relied on the USA’s alliance and continue to do so. Our daily lifestyle depends on America protecting our interests. If it wasn’t for Trump’s America armed forces guarding the Strait of Hormuz and shepherding oil shipments through it, Europe and Australia would have run out of oil/petrol a long time ago, thanks to Iran’s clerical rulers.

    1 hour ago
    Yes the clerical rulers who came to power because successive U.S. Governments supported the Shah long past the point when it was in their strategic interest. Every time the U.S. turns it hand to interfering in the affairs of a sovereign nation it invariably gets it wrong and even when it gets things right, it fails to stay the course. The only examples of the U.S. behaving like a good agent since WW2 would have to be in Somalia and the ex Yugoslavia. Both happened on Clinton’s watch.

    A very good morning to all.
    13℃ in Newcastle with projected top of 18℃. Sunny day. ☮ ☕

    Over and out.

  29. An all inclusive Royal Commission is needed to ascertain the facts regarding the MDB.
    One member of Cabinet should be asked to stand aside till the findings of the commission are made public.
    Joyce should stand aside as well.
    An order that no new work to retard the flow of water should be imposed as well.
    In the mind of the third world regime recently elected to Federal Parliament they have a mandate and are not required to respond.
    The main stream media will remain mute regarding the MDB.
    The ABC will be further penalized for the 4C programme.
    The major concern with the 4C MDB programme are the issues it was afraid to present to the public.
    The new paradigm from a government governing by decree. No transparency is necessary
    The public are clamouring for their $1080 to combine with deeming and franking.
    The life and times of land of gamblers falling for the pea in a shell.
    When did we receive some genuinely good news about government?

  30. SH-Y and other Greens have consistently drawn attention to the lack of water and the fish kills, but the media story (where it exists) has been all about drought.

    Perhaps 4C was careful not to accuse anyone because there is immediate threat of litigation from the big boys in Coalition.

    Further development (ie land reshaping, dam walls and planting) should be stopped immediately, but the govt is in recess (holiday), as usual.

  31. Tristo says:
    Tuesday, July 9, 2019 at 9:19 am
    @C@tmomma

    If a recession comes and the government decides to impose the sort of austerity which the Conservatives in Britain have imposed, in an effort to at least balance the budget. Then it would be a fantastic political opportunity for Labor to argue for stimulus measures to achieve economic recovery.

    There is already widespread repression of labour. Real per capita incomes have been declining. Unemployment and under-employment are elevated. Cost of living pressures are high and are scored that way by voters. Taxes on working people are also edging higher.

    And yet the Liberals have just won an election and won most strongly in places where labour repression is most acute. Their strongest results were in Queensland and the parts of WA, Tasmania and NSW where recessionary conditions already exist.

    The proposition that economic hardship will drive voters to Labor is mistaken. Unless and until dysfunction on the left-of-centre is resolved, the Liberals will most likely continue to win. The centre-left simply appear like a rabble to most voters. They are divided and focused on themselves rather than being unified and focused on voters. They are basically incapable of winning.

    William’s post on electoral opinions is interesting in another respect. It shows that WA voters are highly satisfied with the WA government. The government here is very conservative. In some significant respects it’s more conservative than the Barnett Government. There is no sense at all that there is an appetite for change in the WA community. Rather, the electorate seems to want less change. Risk aversion is obviously very high, which is a natural response to tightened circumstances.

  34. A knew day dawns over Morristan where all the people go about their business safe in the knowledge Miracle Man is on top of things.

  38. Victoria @ #82 Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 – 9:38 am

    BK

    Agreed. The 4corners report was definitely underplayed.
    No hyperbole whatsoever

    ‘Pink Batts for Farmers’
    Classic.
    Jeez just wait till the Labor party down there in Canberra gets wind of this scandal.
    Scrotty and the Potty Calves Party will have serious questions to answer.
    Labor’s gonna be like a dog with a bone. Never drop it. Never give up.
    Push back.
    Any minute now….

  39. If you missed 4Corners. This is the pretty full story.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-08/taxpayers-helping-fund-murray-darling-basin-expansion/11279468

    Key points
    Billions of dollars in Commonwealth funds have been handed out to irrigators under a scheme designed to help the environment
    Partly foreign-owned corporation Webster Limited received more than $40 million and has expanded its irrigation operations
    Farmers say no-one is checking whether grants given under the scheme are delivering their promised water savings

  40. @Peg

    How many Royal Commission do we need for MDP?

    Seriously Greens done fuxk all all talk no action.

    Labor is right greens are wrong.

    Needs strong action very quickly.

  42. We always knew Snowy (as we call him here at Château Bushfire, and throughout the sulphur-crested community generally) was a born performer.

    From the moment he was hatched, boogeying and bopping to A Crazy Little Thing Called Love, it was clear that this was a parrot with panache, a classy cockatoo. The sky was the limit for Snowball.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jul/08/cockatoo-choreographs-his-own-dance-moves-researchers-believe

  43. Bellwether says:

    I’m about to plant some radishes. Do I qualify for a Commonwealth grant?

    If you want a grant then plant beetroot in your newly named ‘Barnaby Joyce Commemorative Garden’. Bonus, you may not even have to grow anything.

  44. Did you see that Josh Frydenberg is saying that he won’t do a fiscal stimulus because it would “risk the surplus”? He is saying that he will do industrial relations reform instead, which he thinks will stimulate the economy.

    First, the LNP’s concept of industrial relations reform is to do things that repress wages. That will depress total spending. It won’t stimulate the economy. Total spending will fall. That will result in lower tax receipts, meaning that the pointless goal of a fiscal surplus will elude the government.

    Second, the government did not campaign on any changes to industrial relations. They were quiet about that. They can’t say that they sought public approval for any changes in this area – particularly changes that will make workers worse off.

    The only reason why the Howard Government was able to preside over fiscal surpluses is that in the late 1990s and early 2000s Australian households were willing to take on increasing amounts of private debt. That is very unlikely to happen today. Households are already highly leveraged. Households are worried about their economic prospects. They probably won’t cooperate with a federal government strategy to manipulate them into borrowing more.

  45. He is saying that he will do industrial relations reform instead, which he thinks will stimulate the economy.

    What he really means, but dare not say, is that repressed wages encourage profits. But it will all fall down around his cotton wool stuffed ears when the economy dives.

  46. Essential continue to focus on issue and sentiment polling.

    This one looks at the Folau and religious freedom issue.

    It seems the Government isn’t even in tune with its own voters on the issue.

    Conservatives agitate for religious freedom law but Coalition voters not on board – Essential poll

    Poll also shows majority of Australians don’t want employers to be able to dictate what their employees say outside of work

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/09/conservatives-agitating-for-religious-freedom-law-but-coalition-voters-not-on-board-essential-poll

  48. Victoria @ #65 Tuesday, July 9th, 2019 – 9:01 am

    Lizzie

    The MDB agreement that Labor eventually agreed to under pressure and blowback from the farmers (who can forget the carry on by them at the time), has not worked as intended.
    Therefore Labor can come and and say that it has been rorted and corrupted etc.
    Labor need to grow a big pair. Go hard or go home

    Indeed.
    There is a pattern developing here, and the pattern is that Labor is scared witless to actually stand up for anything that isn’t already supported by their political opponents.

    Opposition is far too comfortable if you don’t oppose.

  49. Nothing much in the Guardian today on the MDB rorts, although they did make some attempt during the election.

    A lot about some football dork who hates gays though. The whole religious freedoms beat up is just the sort of smoke screen this government needs at the moment, dividing the community and providing a spectacle for the MSM. So much easier for the lazy punters to understand a love/hate gays match off rather than the complexities of saving our biggest river system.

  50. adrian

    I don’t think they’re comfortable as much as demoralised. A feeling similar to being a junior in the office with a sociopath for a boss.

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