Another two bite the dust

Party deregistrations, issues polling, and locally relevant discussion of the performance of online pollsters in the US.

Some unrelated electoral news nuggets to keep things ticking over:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the deregistration of two right-wing minor parties, the more newsworthy of which was Cory Bernardi’s decision to decommission Australian Conservatives. This party owed its party registration to Bernardi’s position in the Senate, rather than its having 500 members, so the matter was entirely in his hands. In a sense, this also means an end to Family First, which won Senate seats at the 2004, 2013 and 2016 elections and had a presence in the South Australian upper house from 2002 to 2017, when it merged with Bernardi’s newly formed outfit. However, Family First appeared to lose energy as evangelical Christians increasingly preferred to direct their organisational efforts towards the Liberal Party, and was dominated in its later years by deep-pocketed former Senator Bob Day. Even further afield, the Rise Up Australia party, associated with controversial pastor Danny Nalliah of Catch the Fire Ministries, has voluntarily deregistered.

• JWS Research has released the latest results in its occasional series on issue salience, recording only one particularly noteworthy movement over the past three surveys: defence, security and terrorism, which only 20% now rate in the top five issues most warranting the attention of the federal government, down from 23% in February and 29% in November. “Performance index” measures for the government across the various issue areas have recorded little change post-election, except that “vision, leadership and quality of government” is up from 35% to 42% (which is still the fifth lowest out of 20 designated issue areas). The survey was conducted from June 26-30 from a sample of 1000.

• In the New York Times’ Upshot blog, Nate Cohn casts a skeptical eye over the record of online polling in the United States. It notes a Pew Research finding that YouGov’s “synthetic sampling” method achieves the best results out of the online pollsters, by which it “selects individuals from its panel of respondents, one by one, to match the demographic profile of individual Americans”. Another survey that performed relatively well, VoteCast, did so by concurrently conducting a huge sample phone poll, results of which were used to calibrate the online component.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,381 comments on “Another two bite the dust”

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  1. PFTMD

    I don’t disagree with you about Senator Di Natale as leader up until his speech calling a Labor out this week.

    Much as it hurt some Labor people to hear it he was correct. Labor voted to end progressive taxation. Labor did vote against raising Newstart. Labor did vote for Adani and opening up the Galilee basin when we should be exporting less not more coal. Certainly not putting taxpayers dollars into it.

  3. For the benefit of the guytaur’s of this world I have the latest update on the number of new NSW ALP members who have joined since the election in May:

    2000

    Hardly, As I mentioned earlier long term Labor people are looking for alternatives to the Labor party.

    There may be a few disgruntled long term members, there always are, but their numbers are being more than outweighed by the numbers of new members joining.

  5. Cat

    I did not say Labor members. I said long term Labor supporters.
    Much as you dislike it people who are not members of the Labor party do not have to defend Labor on every vote made.

    We can want a Labor government based on the values we those outside the party expect Labor to vote.

    Edit: Based on Labor history.

  6. C@tmomma @ #801 Wednesday, July 10th, 2019 – 9:16 pm

    For the benefit of the guytaur’s of this world I have the latest update on the number of new NSW ALP members who have joined since the election in May:

    2000

    Hardly, As I mentioned earlier long term Labor people are looking for alternatives to the Labor party.

    There may be a few disgruntled long term members, there always are, but their numbers are being more than outweighed by the numbers of new members joining.

    A lot of those new Lib lite members likely to be ex LibNats who like the signs Albanese is giving off with lower taxes and the like…

  8. PuffyTMD @ #797 Wednesday, July 10th, 2019 – 9:03 pm

    Get rid of Richard de Natale. He is about as much use as a condom is to a jelly fish.

    Agree.

    Labor needs to stop bashing the Greens and remember what its principles are and then start standing up for them.

    The Greens need to stop bashing Labor, refresh their leadership, and start helping Labor take the fight to the Coalition.

  10. a r @ #806 Wednesday, July 10th, 2019 – 9:28 pm

    PuffyTMD @ #797 Wednesday, July 10th, 2019 – 9:03 pm

    Get rid of Richard de Natale. He is about as much use as a condom is to a jelly fish.

    Agree.

    Labor needs to stop bashing the Greens and remember what its principles are and then start standing up for them.

    The Greens need to stop bashing Labor, refresh their leadership, and start helping Labor take the fight to the Coalition.

    There is no Labor anymore.

    The new Lib lite is fundamentally far closer to the LibNats than the Greens.

  11. C@t @ 9.19pm

    “not hearing good things behind the scenes about ………. “

    I thought that posting innuendo and smears like that was part of the pointed criticism Mr Bowe made of you the other night.

    What does it mean? What are “good things” that you are not hearing?

    Is she ill? Has she joined the Greens? Did she stand up for herself and offend some Laborite? Is she about to join the Coalies? Are you doing a comprehensive Alice Workman on her? Is she about to come out as a Penticostilist? Is the AFP after her too?

    If you have nothing to really say perhaps you should give your typo fingers a rest occasionally.

  12. I’m in a club at the moment. State of Origin is on. Judging by the noise and general commotion, NSW must be doing well.

    Strange thing about sports fans. Even if I were interested in the game I would not feel compelled to shout and make a lot of noise if my preferred side did something I like. I’d simply feel pleased and enjoy the moment. Anyway, I assume that NSW is leading 90-0.

    It must have been like this among “Liberals” on election night.

  14. Steve777

    One of the lesser reasons I expect the Liberal Party to oppose truth in advertising laws is that they would have to change their name. 🙂

  15. JenAuthor,

    On religion – I was ‘educated’ in various belief systems as a kid – which only made me reject all religion for myself as an teenager. I am still an atheist but I respect others’ right to the delusion, especially if it eases their way through psychological trauma.

    That said – I studied belief systems as part of my history degree i.e. I was fascinate by the religions of ancient cultures and made that a focus. I am still fascinated.

    My new place is around the corner from a Hillsong establishment … I won’t be joining!

    I think you must be just around the corner from me. I am two streets west of Hillsong, and go past it to my mother’s unit near Danks street Coles. Great area, but Hillsong has both up so much of the property for their American students that a lot of the nice cafes have closed 🙁

  16. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, July 10, 2019 at 9:19 pm

    BK,
    Not hearing good things about Rebekha Sharkie behind the scenes of parliament either.
    _________________________
    Coming as it does from a source both rich in invention and gullibility lets hope this rumor is not actually detailed.

  17. Psyclaw,
    It seems you can’t wait to get your innuendo into me yourself. No matter. I don’t really give two hoots what you think I ought to know, realise, or do.

    I was simply passing on what a more reliable source than you will ever come in contact with had to say to me tonight. It wasn’t rumour, nor innuendo, it was fact. If you choose not to believe it simply because it suits your agenda to have a go at me on every possible half-baked occasion then I suppose I cannot stop you. That doesn’t mean that you are correct though, and more likely than not you aren’t. As is the case this time.

    Though I suppose it’s not news that Rebekha Sharkie is simply being true to her Liberal roots. Or do you have a problem with that statement of fact as well?

    I simply made mention of it because it was possible to think she may have moved away from that original path. She hasn’t. And her vote in the Lower House in support of the 3 stages of the tax cuts and against any of the Labor Amendments is further proof of that.

    They are simply the facts. Much as it may disappoint you to realise that’s all I have done. Stated facts.

  18. Back at you, psyclaw:

    If you have nothing to really say perhaps you should give your typo fingers a rest occasionally. 🙂

  19. Cat

    It’s fact you are hearing gossip.

    How accurate that gossip is, is another matter.

    Edit: what we do know is that people were happy to vote for Sharkie because she worked for the electorate and was much better than the previous member.

  20. A Cigar for Itza. Pius XII declared himself infallible in pronouncing Munificentissimus Deus (i looked it up) in 1950

    It could be pointed out that a doctrine of immaculate conception implies immortality as Man is only mortal because of original sin. Therefore the church had to work out some way of explaining why a 2000 year old Mary isn’t still wandering around

  21. BK @ #805 Wednesday, July 10th, 2019 – 9:27 pm

    Not hearing good things about Rebekha Sharkie behind the scenes of parliament either.
    C#t
    ?????????

    I guess it applies to CA in general, BK. Apparently we can’t expect them to vote against the government very much because they all believe that, as Morrison won the election he has won the right to get what he wants through the parliament. 🙁

    They will extract their concessions, so as to make the local paper, but at the end of the day they will let most things through.

  22. For the benefit of the guytaur’s of this world I have the latest update on the number of new NSW ALP members who have joined since the election in May:

    2000

    We had our first branch meeting post election last week. I couldn’t go, but I understand we have new members in our local branch who have joined since the election.

    I have to admit, my first thought was to wonder if they joined with the anticipation of voting in the leadership ballot.

  23. Rex Douglas @ #808 Wednesday, July 10th, 2019 – 9:31 pm

    a r @ #806 Wednesday, July 10th, 2019 – 9:28 pm

    PuffyTMD @ #797 Wednesday, July 10th, 2019 – 9:03 pm

    Get rid of Richard de Natale. He is about as much use as a condom is to a jelly fish.

    Agree.

    Labor needs to stop bashing the Greens and remember what its principles are and then start standing up for them.

    The Greens need to stop bashing Labor, refresh their leadership, and start helping Labor take the fight to the Coalition.

    There is no Labor anymore.

    The new Lib lite is fundamentally far closer to the LibNats than the Greens.

    Enjoy your splendid isolation, Rex Douglas. 🙂

  24. Cat

    Working for the Labor party is not the standard of being a good member. Remember this is not a Labor party site. Say not good for The Labor party.

  25. Confessions @ #820 Wednesday, July 10th, 2019 – 9:56 pm

    For the benefit of the guytaur’s of this world I have the latest update on the number of new NSW ALP members who have joined since the election in May:

    2000

    We had our first branch meeting post election last week. I couldn’t go, but I understand we have new members in our local branch who have joined since the election.

    I have to admit, my first thought was to wonder if they joined with the anticipation of voting in the leadership ballot.

    In NSW you can’t vote in a leadership ballot until you have been a member of good standing for 12 months.

    I think most people here are joining because they are disappointed in the result of the election and that what Labor stood for was dashed upon the rocks. Things they believed in.

  27. Oakeshott Country @ #819 Wednesday, July 10th, 2019 – 9:54 pm

    A Cigar for Itza. Pius XII declared himself infallible in pronouncing Munificentissimus Deus (i looked it up) in 1950

    It could be pointed out that a doctrine of immaculate conception implies immortality as Man is only mortal because of original sin. Therefore the church had to work out some way of explaining why a 2000 year old Mary isn’t still wandering around

    A cigar!! Very secular thank you kindly. Beats a new holy card for my missal.

  32. Steve777 @ #827 Wednesday, July 10th, 2019 – 10:05 pm

    A tremendous commotion just now I’m assuming that NSW has won by at least 100-0.

    Nope:

    NSW 20 Qld 20
    Lowe kicks it! Ice in this man’s veins tonight. He only got the kicking job yesterday! Incredible scenes. Who stands up here for NSW with the series on the line! Two minutes to play. WOW.

  33. TEDESCO WINS IT FOR THE BLUES
    You could not even dream this up… no field goal for the Blues. James Tedesco, the best player on the park, scores instead. The stadium melts down… he is the hero for the NSW. One of the great Origin performances and this was their Mark Coyne moment. Blake Ferguson away on the right, somehow stays in, then finds his brilliant fullback. Amazing. NSW win the series.

  34. Guytaur
    There is proportional rep in the NSW ALP. The left can only ever have 1/3 of the glittering prizes. This was a compromie to prevent effective Federal intervention in the Whitlam era

  35. Count all the posters who have questioned you about smearing in that post C@t.

    As Mr Bowe has told you numerous times, you have no self insight. Try to conjure some up.

    “Victim Always – Guilty Never”…… your personal monogram. Suppose you have a T-shirt so emblazoned.

  36. OC

    There is no doubt NSW is moving to the left. Rules or not. The only question is how much. New members may join the right faction but be left of what that faction had travelled to.

    A lot of people do get confused by the fact the politicians are to the right of the electorate across the board.

    A good example is the LNP finding out Conservatives are not in favour of the religious “freedom” laws. As revealed by Essential in the Guardian.

  37. Great to see NSW win the State of Origin series. I have no interest in RL or even the series, it is just good to know that a lot of Queenslanders are gutted 🙂

  41. OC

    Yes. With all due respect we saw politicians way behind voters on Marriage Equality as an example. Voters seem to be closer to the ACT agenda than NSW Labor.

  42. Cat, I have been a member for less than 12 months, and voted in the recent leadership ballot in NSW, so don’t know where that leaves your rule.

  43. Confessions

    If my Facebook timeline is any indication there are a surprising number of Qld supporters in WA

    That’s good…it gives you an opportunity to rub it in!

  44. Guaytaur
    I thought you were implying that the influx of short term members would impact on the 1970 compromise.
    it is dated now but Rodney Cavalier’s “Crisis in Power” is a great summary of how the NSW ALP works and the role of the rank and file

  45. OC

    Nah. I was just talking about definition. The NSW Right is on the nose. So the left is gaining influence. That includes the right being less conservative due to expunging the toxic influence of the Obeid style politics

  46. adrian @ #840 Wednesday, July 10th, 2019 – 10:23 pm

    Cat, I have been a member for less than 12 months, and voted in the recent leadership ballot in NSW, so don’t know where that leaves your rule.

    Don’t know. That’s what I was told by our Branch Secretary. I admit, she told me that in relation to the federal leadership vote, so maybe it’s different for that?

  49. Psyclaw @ #833 Wednesday, July 10th, 2019 – 10:13 pm

    Count all the posters who have questioned you about smearing in that post C@t.

    As Mr Bowe has told you numerous times, you have no self insight. Try to conjure some up.

    “Victim Always – Guilty Never”…… your personal monogram. Suppose you have a T-shirt so emblazoned.

    Lol. Relying on Rex Douglas to support your pathetic argument. If you are also talking about the usual suspects that also look for any opportunity to pile on me, then I wouldn’t know, nor do I care.

    Specifically, I directed my comment to BK. I explained my comment to BK in more detail. BK hasn’t questioned my comment. That’s all I really care about. His opinion. Not yours. You have an agenda. That is obvious.

    Honestly, this new macho, aggressive, smarmy posture of yours, psyclaw, doesn’t suit you at all.

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