Essential Research leadership polling

A belated account of the first set of post-election leadership ratings, recording a victory bounce for Scott Morrison and a tentative debut for Anthony Albanese.

Contrary to expectations it might put its head above the parapet with today’s resumption of parliament, there is still no sign of Newspoll – or indeed any other polling series, at least so far as voting intention is concerned. Essential Research, however, is maintaining its regular polling schedule, but so far it’s been attitudinal polling only. The latest set of results was published in The Guardian on Friday, and it encompasses Essential’s leadership ratings series, which I relate here on a better-late-than-never basis. Featured are the first published ratings for Anthony Albanese, of 35% approval and 25% disapproval, compared with 38% and 44% in the pollster’s final pre-election reading for Bill Shorten.

To put this into some sort of perspective, the following table (click on image to enlarge) provides comparison with Newspoll’s debut results for opposition leaders over the past three decades. The only thing it would seem safe to conclude from this is that Albanese’s numbers aren’t terribly extraordinary one way or the other.

Scott Morrison’s post-election bounce lifts him five points on approval to 48%, with disapproval down three to 36%, and he leads Albanese 43-25 on preferred prime minister, compared with 39-32 for Shorten’s late result. Also featured are questions on tax cuts (with broadly negative responses to the government policy, albeit that some of the question framing is a little slanted for mine), trust in various media outlets (results near-identical to those from last October, in spite of everything), and various indigenous issues (including a finding that 57% would vote yes in a constitutional recognition referendum, compared with 34% for no). The poll was conducted June 19 to June 23 from an online sample of 1079.

Elsewhere in poll-dom:

• Australian Market and Social Research Organisations has established an advisory board and panel for its inquiry into the pollster failure, encompassing an impressive roll call of academics, journalists and statisticians. Ipsos would appear to be the only major Australian polling concern that’s actually a member of AMSRO, but the organisation has “invited a publisher representative from each of Nine Entertainment (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and NewsCorp to join the advisory board”.

• A number of efforts have now been made to reverse-engineer a polling trend measure for the last term, using the actual results from 2016 and 2019 as anchoring points. The effort of Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo at the University of Sydney was noted here last week. Mark the Ballot offers three models – one anchored to the 2016 result, which lands low for the Coalition in 2019, but still higher than what the polls were saying); one anchored to the 2019 result, designed to land on the mark for 2019, but resulting in a high reading for the Coalition in 2016; and, most instructively, one anchored to both, which is designed to land on the mark at both elections. Kevin Bonham offers various approaches that involve polling going off the rails immediately or gradually after the leadership change, during the election campaign, or combinations thereof.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,688 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

  1. TPOF @ #1401 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 2:49 pm

    If they are going to get more in their pay packets straight away they will not give a fuck about their future aspirations

    No-one, I repeat no-one is getting more money in their pay-packets. They’re getting more money when they fill out their tax returns. Then they’ll have to wait another year to get the next lot, and once a year after that.

    They are not tax cuts, they are increased tax rebates.

  2. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 5:45 pm
    briefly @ #1444 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 5:39 pm

    Keep them coming, Boer….excellent
    Yes, do so …we need you to emote to get through these stages of grief….

    I am not grieving. I feel relief. The result could have been much worse. I also feel indebted to Bob Brown. He has reminded me of the true purpose of the Greens. My memory failed me for a few days.

    The sense of unreality has been dispelled. This is a very good thing. We are about to enter the third decade of the 21st century. It is really time to let go of the 20th; to fully recognise that nothing has been resolved on terms favourable to working people since the Hawke Government; to acknowledge that dysfunction on the Left is deeply entrenched and that the ascendancy of the Right is ubiquitous.

    The failure of Labor to win will turn out to be as nothing compared to the hardship to be faced by working people as the recession deepens. This is serious. It is not a cause for grief so much as a call to action.

  3. mundo @ #1463 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 4:04 pm

    Pegasus @ #1459 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 5:55 pm

    The Guardian

    The tax package will be legislated by next week, and the ATO has already said it will have the structures in place to pass on the first rebate – up to $1,215, depending on how much you earn – by next week.

    According to everyone I’ve heard so far on this millions of Australian will receive $1008 as early as next week.
    Pretty sure this is not right.

    They still have to fill out their tax returns.

  4. Boerwar @ #1402 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 4:50 pm

    ‘lizzie says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:25 pm

    Boerwar

    I’m on the side of the VNPA in this. Labor have fiddled about and not bitten the bullet on preserving the old growth forests. The RFAs are a disaster, first created by that great conservationist, Howard.’

    It is also probable that species that depend on extremely high value and scarce timber resource areas such a old growth E regnans, have not fared well and that Leadbeater’s Possum will probably go extinct as a consequence.
    Further to all of the above, climate change was discussed during the RFAs and was actually incorporated into some of the reserve design principles – in global terms it was well ahead of its time.
    But climate change is now moving so fast that most of the ecological inputs to the RFAs are being overtaken by events. For example, changes to fire regimes are going to have massive impacts on the distribution of plant types, on hydrology and on every other bloody thing.

    Almost all E regnans, obliqua and delegatensis (Tasmanian and Mountain Ash, so called) harvested in Australia is exported for woodchips. All harvesting is subsidised. Payment for logs is ludicrously low. The entire industry is an obscenity.

    Here are the woodchip piles at Twofold Bay, near Eden NSW.

    Watching the beautiful 300 plus year old sawlogs being trucked into there, hour after hour would make you cry. I was subjected to this while going along Edrom Road on the way into, and back from, Bittangibee Bay (the best camping spot in the country) a couple of months ago.

  5. The Greens cannot be serious in their lament about the economy. They propose nothing by way of action. Instead they whinge about the only party with a plan to respond to the need for stimulus.

    They really are the clowns of the Senate. They should team up with Malcolm ROBERTS.

  6. Lars Von Trier @ #1495 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 7:16 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 7:08 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #1488 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 7:05 pm

    The Albo purge begins:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-party-s-top-federal-official-to-step-down-in-wake-of-election-defeat-20190704-p5249n.html
    Are you trying to say he should stay!?!
    _____________________________________
    No need to humiliate people, alls I’m saying is its good that its happening.

    All I was asking for was clarity wrt your perspective. It wasn’t clear.

  7. You would have thought that ABC 7.00 pm news would see fit to include an item that UNESCO has attacked a NSW government proposal to raise the Warragamba Dam wall, as threatening the world heritage status of the Blue Mountains.

    But no, SFA among the general dross.

  8. briefly @ #1500 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 7:24 pm

    The Greens cannot be serious in their lament about the economy. They propose nothing by way of action. Instead they whinge about the only party with a plan to respond to the need for stimulus.

    They really are the clowns of the Senate. They should team up with Malcolm ROBERTS.

    Yes, I am thinking that Roberts is a bear of little brain. He just asked Matthias Cormann if Treasury had modelling which would show him where people were going to spend their Tax Rebate? 😆

  9. https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-07-04/mining-bill-passes-sa-parliament-but-rebel-mps-hope-for-inquiry/11277340

    “South Australia’s Mining Act reform has passed the State Lower House despite four Liberal backbenchers crossing the floor to vote against the bill.

    Liberal backbenchers Fraser Ellis, Steve Murray, Dan Cregan and Nick McBride were joined by Independent MPs Geoff Brock, Troy Bell and Frances Bedford, but with Labor supporting the Government, the bill passed.

    Farmers protested on the steps of Parliament House, concerned the legislation did not provide enough protection for agricultural land.”

  10. Dan Gulberry says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 7:15 pm
    TPOF @ #1401 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 2:49 pm

    If they are going to get more in their pay packets straight away they will not give a fuck about their future aspirations
    No-one, I repeat no-one is getting more money in their pay-packets. They’re getting more money when they fill out their tax returns. Then they’ll have to wait another year to get the next lot, and once a year after that.

    They are not tax cuts, they are increased tax rebates.

    ______________________________________

    Dan, I was talking about Labor restructuring Stage 3 tax cuts to benefit the bulk of people who are medium income earners by taking from the high income earners. I’m not talking about stage 1.

  11. @Peg

    The independents just betrayed the voters at federal election they doing the same to SA.

    There is no such thing as Independent!

  12. Yabba
    As noted previously the entire ‘forest debate’ now has been OBE and will increasingly be so as climate change rolls in.
    Changes to fire frequency alone will be such as to ensure that once the current lot is gone, there will never be 300 year old E regnans again.
    The strong likelihood is that any species that made an evolutionary bet on needing to be around for a century plus is probably gone already.

  13. Those who think Labor’s stuffed need a reality check. The ALP holds power in the two territories, Queensland, WA, Victoria. It also recorded a TPP vote at the last election of 6,908580, 436,233 less than the Tories, which approximates the votes Palmer paid $80M for, and whose preferences overwhelming flowed to the enemy.

    Granted, Labor may’ve temporarily lost its confidence, but it’ll be back – rest assured of that. As for Albanese’s leadership, it’s too early to judge, though attempts by him at bipartisanship reinforces the notion by some that he lacks the requisite attributes to demarcate Labor from its adversaries. Personally, I think Labor should’ve gone for generational change, in the form of Chalmers, though he (Albanese) should be given a chance to prove his detractors wrong.

  14. The SA Greens party does not have any lower house members.

    Despite this fact, according to your warped world view the Greens are to blame for the vote going through with bipartisan support in the SA parliament.

  15. Zoidy
    The government has a mandate to introduce these tax cuts so its reckless for the crossbench to block them. They are what they are and now the government will need to hope the economy picks up, if not then it wont be able to hide behind the tax cuts were blocked.

  16. Mavis Davis says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 7:49 pm
    Those who think Labor’s stuffed need a reality check. The ALP holds power in the two territories, Queensland, WA, Victoria. It also recorded a TPP vote at the last election of 6,908580, 436,233 less than the Tories, which approximates the votes Palmer paid $80M for, and whose preferences overwhelming flowed to the enemy.

    Granted, Labor may’ve temporarily lost its confidence, but it’ll be back – rest assured of that. As for Albanese’s leadership, it’s too early to judge, though attempts by him at bipartisanship reinforces the notion by some that he lacks the requisite attributes to demarcate Labor from its adversaries. Personally, I think Labor should’ve gone for generational change, in the form of Chalmers, though he (Albanese) should be given a chance to prove his detractors wrong.
    ________________________________________
    Well Mavis,

    Labor has a PV of roughly 33.33% and union membership is about 1 in 10. Labor cannot win doing the same thing and expecting to get a different result.

    I am optimistic Albo can lead that change to something better and different.

  17. ‘Pegasus says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 7:50 pm

    The SA Greens party does not have any lower house members.’

    That is a shocking outcome after 27 years of thought leadership, moral superiority and general ability to blame Labor for every last thing.
    Have the Greens organised an inquiry into why they are totally failing in the South Australian lower house?
    Is it a leadership or a thought leadership problem?
    Are the announcements up to scratch?
    Are peeps like S H_Y a turn off?
    Is it the policies, like the threatened closure of ALL uranium mines, a problem?
    Could it be that the Greens should have launched a convoy into South Australia rather than into Queensland?
    So many questions for the Greens and so few answers.

  18. I’ve said it before but I think union membership numbers should include professional bodies memberships because an increasing number of Australian workers are members of such groups and they act as unions in that they represent their members although not in the union industrial sense.

  19. Four Corners on monday is going to be on the MDB Plan and where $13 billion went.
    It is a pity that they waited until after the election.
    CORRUPTION R US will simply ride the storm.

  20. Why do you pretend to care about the Darling BW? You support the cotton industry which heads off over 2000 gigalitres before it even gets into the system.

  21. Coalition’s tax cuts pass Senate in full as Labor backs down

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/04/tax-cuts-pass-senate-in-full-as-labor-backs-down

    “Labor has capitulated on the government’s $158bn tax cut package, voting for the plan despite arguing it was “irresponsible” to lock in benefits for higher income earners.
    ::::
    By voting for $158bn in revenue cuts that will hurt people doing it tough and line the pockets of millionaires, Anthony Albanese has abandoned the mantle of opposition leader,” the Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, said. “What’s the value of the Labor party if they are simply a paler version of the Morrison government?”

  22. About Time: Bernard Tomic stripped of the 80k he got for being a first round loser at Wimbledon. This guy has been doing this for years, going out in the first or second round and just traveling the world collecting cash for being a loser. His heart is not in tennis, and now his wallet shouldn’t be either.

  23. Lars Von Trier:

    [‘I am optimistic Albo can lead that change to something better and different.’]

    We are on all four to that end. What he must do is to come out firing, not worrying about being wedged on such things as national security. He must state his case, and not prevaricate. He must call out Dutton, Cormann for the grubs they are. In short, he must stand for something: the values of his distinguished predecessors – Curtain, Chifley, Whitlam, Hawke, Keating.

  24. At some point in time, Labor has been out of office in nearly every jurisdiction in Oz – as well as Federally – at the same time. At one time, to balance the ledger, Campbell Newman, as LM of Brisbane was the most “senior” Liberal in office. John Howard bemoaned this situation.
    The silly old goat Sir Charles Court once gloated that Labor was “finished”. He lost the next election in WA and I think that was the last time he was in office.
    The Oz electorate is as fickle as a fish sniffing bait.
    Was it not so long ago that the Labor members in Queensland could fit in a small mini bus and the LNP were looking to be in office for…………….ever…………….?
    Currently Labor has lost its mojo because it thought that a reasoned approach to the electorate would see them get up. This was a severe miscalculation………….
    What is needed is constant attack on issues, some mongrel and just hammer the government for all the things it has got wrong, is getting wrong and will continue to get wrong. The government is actually weak in terms of its personnel.
    Labor does need a narrative…………..persistent attack, keep the powder dry, simple mantras, small target and don’t worry too much about opinion polls and the hostile Murdoch/Stokes media.
    The latter will never be on Labor’s side.

  25. Hark, I hear a Greens announcement!
    Oh my goodness! The Greens are into full twitterstorm mode ATM! Waves of thought leadership are swamping the voters with the best policies in the world.
    What is wrong with the 90% that despite 27 years of the best thought leadership in the world, under the most charismatic leaders in the world (Di Natale!), and with the most persuasive policy sellers in the world (Rice!) they still don’t get it!
    C’mon Aussie, c’mon!

  26. I’ve said it before but I think union membership numbers should include professional bodies memberships because an increasing number of Australian workers are members of such groups and they act as unions in that they represent their members although not in the union industrial sense.

    What about other union style groups like PCA and BCA? Pharma Guild? AMA? MBA?
    Businesses can organise, collectively bargain. Workers must be divided. Kinda like MLK said; socialism for the powerful, cruel capitalism and devastating competition for the poor. Kinda like the bad old days only this time, the poor are voting themselves into it.

  27. Pegasus @ #1526 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 8:09 pm

    Coalition’s tax cuts pass Senate in full as Labor backs down

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/04/tax-cuts-pass-senate-in-full-as-labor-backs-down

    “Labor has capitulated on the government’s $158bn tax cut package, voting for the plan despite arguing it was “irresponsible” to lock in benefits for higher income earners.
    ::::
    Labor has capitulated on the government’s $158bn tax cut package, voting for the plan despite arguing it was “irresponsible” to lock in benefits for higher income earners.”

    Well, they’re now at rock bottom.

    It’s a great challenge for whoever replaces Noah Carroll. I’d be prepared to step up given Emma didn’t take up my offer…

  28. Golly with 4 out of 128 mps in Victoria the Greens are virtually an electoral tidal wave… a tsunami of power… provided the other 124 mps would only just stop and LISTEN TO THE GREENS.
    And all that achieved in only the first 27 years of the world’s best thought leadership, the world’s most charismatic leaders AND the world’s best policies.

  29. Simon² Katich®
    In many growing parts of the labour market, employees are required to join that industry related professional body to demonstrate basic professional standards, and those professional bodies represent their members. I think it could be argued that they are filling the role of a union without the industrial relations side of things. To work on a building site requires certain tickets, is surely the same as needing to be either a CA or CPA to work as an accountant.

  30. Pegasus @ #1538 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 8:24 pm

    Government’s $158b tax cuts pass Parliament, giving Coalition first win since election

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-04/full-federal-government-tax-cut-passes-the-senate/11277002

    “Labor, having failed to amend the tax plan, ultimately supported the passage of the plan in the Senate, while the Greens voted against it.

    The legislation passed 56 to 9, with One Nation abstaining and crossbencher Cory Bernardi absent.”

    Wow even PHON had more sense than Labor

  31. a r says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 8:24 pm

    Mexicanbeemer @ #1518 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 7:51 pm

    The government does have a mandate

    No it doesn’t; there’s no such thing. The government gets to legislate whatever it can get through the Senate. If they fail, then they clearly don’t have a mandate for whatever they were trying to pass.
    ——————————-
    That may be the case but the government did campaign on this so blocking it except for the third part which doesn’t come into effect until after the next poll wont be seen in a positive light at a time the economy is calling out for something.

  32. I think we can all at least agree that whatever the economy is calling out for it’s not tax cuts five years from now.

    As for the optics, it’s better for Labor to take the bad press now when it doesn’t need anyone’s vote than three years from now when they have to run on a platform of repealing tax cuts that they voted in favor of and do need everyone to vote for them.

  33. I’d advise Albanese the first question in the next QT should be…

    Does the PM rule out a rise in the GST for the entirety of his PMship ?

  34. Wow even PHON had more sense than Labor

    I heard some of Hansons speech on the wireless. I thought I was in the Land of topsy-turvy.

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