Essential Research leadership polling

A belated account of the first set of post-election leadership ratings, recording a victory bounce for Scott Morrison and a tentative debut for Anthony Albanese.

Contrary to expectations it might put its head above the parapet with today’s resumption of parliament, there is still no sign of Newspoll – or indeed any other polling series, at least so far as voting intention is concerned. Essential Research, however, is maintaining its regular polling schedule, but so far it’s been attitudinal polling only. The latest set of results was published in The Guardian on Friday, and it encompasses Essential’s leadership ratings series, which I relate here on a better-late-than-never basis. Featured are the first published ratings for Anthony Albanese, of 35% approval and 25% disapproval, compared with 38% and 44% in the pollster’s final pre-election reading for Bill Shorten.

To put this into some sort of perspective, the following table (click on image to enlarge) provides comparison with Newspoll’s debut results for opposition leaders over the past three decades. The only thing it would seem safe to conclude from this is that Albanese’s numbers aren’t terribly extraordinary one way or the other.

Scott Morrison’s post-election bounce lifts him five points on approval to 48%, with disapproval down three to 36%, and he leads Albanese 43-25 on preferred prime minister, compared with 39-32 for Shorten’s late result. Also featured are questions on tax cuts (with broadly negative responses to the government policy, albeit that some of the question framing is a little slanted for mine), trust in various media outlets (results near-identical to those from last October, in spite of everything), and various indigenous issues (including a finding that 57% would vote yes in a constitutional recognition referendum, compared with 34% for no). The poll was conducted June 19 to June 23 from an online sample of 1079.

Elsewhere in poll-dom:

• Australian Market and Social Research Organisations has established an advisory board and panel for its inquiry into the pollster failure, encompassing an impressive roll call of academics, journalists and statisticians. Ipsos would appear to be the only major Australian polling concern that’s actually a member of AMSRO, but the organisation has “invited a publisher representative from each of Nine Entertainment (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and NewsCorp to join the advisory board”.

• A number of efforts have now been made to reverse-engineer a polling trend measure for the last term, using the actual results from 2016 and 2019 as anchoring points. The effort of Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo at the University of Sydney was noted here last week. Mark the Ballot offers three models – one anchored to the 2016 result, which lands low for the Coalition in 2019, but still higher than what the polls were saying); one anchored to the 2019 result, designed to land on the mark for 2019, but resulting in a high reading for the Coalition in 2016; and, most instructively, one anchored to both, which is designed to land on the mark at both elections. Kevin Bonham offers various approaches that involve polling going off the rails immediately or gradually after the leadership change, during the election campaign, or combinations thereof.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,688 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

  1. a r says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 8:31 pm

    I think we can all at least agree that whatever the economy is calling out for it’s not tax cuts five years from now.
    ——————
    The stage three part should be treated just as the Liberals treated the staggered tax cuts that overlapped the 1996 election.

  2. Mrs D is irate that Labor voted for tax cuts for the rich.
    “What is the point of having a Labor Party?! Aren’t they meant to be looking after the workers and underprivileged?”

  3. The federal government has the power to abolish involuntary unemployment. The required intervention is a federally funded, community-administered Job Guarantee.

    Directly spending on creating jobs for the unemployed is the most effective way to stimulate the economy and enhance community welfare.

  4. Mrs D is irate that Labor voted for tax cuts for the rich.

    I am irate too. But the early stages of the tax cuts are the only wage rise many workers are going to see out of this mob. And the economy needs some sort of nudge.

    It is a bit like being given a lolly by a mean old bugger knowing he will soon follow it up with a smack to the chops. But hey, a lolly would be nice.

  5. SK
    The AMA does represent some members in enterprise bargaining ie doctors who work in public hospitals (SASMOA does it in SA but I think it’s the AMA in other states). They presumably have official status but I don’t know what the definition of a union is.

  6. SK
    The AMA does represent some members in enterprise bargaining ie doctors who work in public hospitals (SASMOA does it in SA but I think it’s the AMA in other states).

    Interesting. Thanks. On reflection, I shouldnt have included the AMA in that list- for a few reasons.

  7. Rex Douglas @ #1549 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 8:41 pm

    Simon² Katich® @ #1551 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 8:35 pm

    Barty on fire at Wimbledon…

    De Minaur too. The quiet Australians.

    The loud Australian was pretty good the other night, but will he turn up tonight against Rafa …?

    Yep. Though I heard John McEnroe make the observation earlier today that Nick Kyriogos was such a nice guy off the court, really well-mannered and he just couldn’t understand how he changes so radically on court.

  8. Diogenes:

    [‘Mrs D is irate that Labor voted for tax cuts for the rich.’]

    I’m stuffed if I know, nor, it’s suggested, the Labor faithful, other than to give an almost immediate boost to the average punter, sorting out the third round at a later date.

    That said, Albanese’s approach is tantamount to Shorten’s handling of Adani.

  9. Tennis does bore me after a while.
    I am looking forward to seeing Pakistan beat Bangladesh by 350 runs to miraculously make the semifinals and see NZ tumble out.

    I used to always barrack for NZ (after Australia of course). But then I noticed in the 2003 rugby World Cup final my kiwi mates with me in the pub were all (A L L !) barracking for England. What about the Anzac tradition – I asked. Nah – they said. We hate Aussies.

  10. Confessions:

    [‘When do I get my tax cut in my pocket?’]

    As soon as you lodge your 2018/2019 tax return -the some $1000 rebate’s retrospective.

  11. Hahah, I was a fool, supporting the Labor party as they built up a decent policy platform.

    How they have turned and oh so easily.

    After a loss that should have made them fight harder.

    It’s the Cursed Earth vs Megacity One.

    Yuck.

  12. Fess the ATO automatically calculates the rebate and reduces the tax payable according. There are no refunds once tax payable is reduced to $0

  13. I don’t know if Mr Bowe collects any stats about the topics that rule the roost here in frequency (as opposed to quality). But anti Green comments would have to go close to being on top.

    And most of them are by only 3 or 4 posters who have no insight into how boringly repetitious and predictable their anti Green comments are.

    I’m not a Green in any shape or form, but they are and have been a well established component of the political scene for a few decades now.

    I think it’s the case that many many more electors vote for the Greens than the Nationals, who due to the mathematical quirks in the electoral process end up with far more reps than they deserve,
    (relative to the Greens’ vote).

  14. Davidwh @ #1574 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 9:19 pm

    Fess the ATO automatically calculates the rebate and reduces the tax payable according. There are no refunds once tax payable is reduced to $0

    Does that mean that if you are already wealthy enough to organize your affairs to pay no tax you won’t get any benefit?

    Liberal supporters won’t like that. That’s not what they don’t pay their taxes for!

  15. Psyclaw @ #1575 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 9:22 pm

    And most of them are by only 3 or 4 posters who have no insight into how boringly repetitious and predictable their anti Green comments are.

    True, but to be fair, they are balanced out by 3 or 4 rabid Greens who do nothing here but post essentially the same thing. Every. Single. Day.

    It gets tedious no matter which side you are on.

  16. Are there any New Zealanders playing in Wimbledon?
    I notice their top ranked NZ mens player ranks at 371. With about 21 Australians ranked higher. The story is similar for the women.
    Kiwis must be too busy playing rugby… or hanging out at Manly beaches.

  17. Confessions:

    [‘Really? Surely it can’t happen that quickly. What about people who have already lodged their tax returns?’]

    Few, if any, would’ve lodged their 2018/2019 returns at this early stage, payment summaries (formerly known as group certificates) are only available post-July (subject to exceptions). But those few who would’ve can request reassessment.

  18. Let me word this carefully.
    I thought the Shorten Labor version was pretty poor but at least tried.
    The current Labor version takes bending over and taking it up the backside to a whole new level.
    No principles, no opposition, no fucking idea.
    Just a plan to do whatever to get their snouts in the left over swill from the current grubs.
    The new junior partner of the Liberal-National-Labor coalition measuring up nicely.
    Pathetic.

  19. Psyclaw:

    [‘And most of them are by only 3 or 4 posters who have no insight into how boringly repetitious and predictable their anti-Green comments are.’]

    I refuse to cavil with your critique.

  20. ICANCU @ #1576 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 9:40 pm

    Let me word this carefully.
    I thought the Shorten Labor version was pretty poor but at least tried.
    The current Labor version takes bending over and taking it up the backside to a whole new level.
    No principles, no opposition, no fucking idea.
    Just a plan to do whatever to get their snouts in the left over swill from the current grubs.
    The new junior partner of the Liberal-National-Labor coalition measuring up nicely.
    Pathetic.

    Like it really matters what a Greens supporter thinks about the Labor Party.

    But before you come out all fired up by your dear leader, you might like to check the facebook video he undoubtedly has just sent you and cast your eyes a couple of rows back to check out Jordan Steele-John. RdN’s speech didn’t fire him up. He just looked at his phone the whole time RdN was railing against Labor. I’d say he gets it better than you do. Which is, ranting and raving against the Labor Party is more than a tad disingenuous when you look at the Senate arithmetic.The Coalition had the numbers and there wasn’t a damn thing Labor could do about it. So why blame Labor?

  21. Happy to help Mavis.

    Basically all taxpayers who have a tax payable of at least the rebate amount will receive the rebate in full either as a refund of tax paid or a reduction of tax payable.

  22. AE

    Given Labor didn’t take your cynically pragmatic path of abstaining from the tax cuts vote, are you taking some consolation with the ‘optics’ of Labor being seen to vote with the Coalition rather than the Greens?

  23. Davidwh:

    So I should get my $1000 in my soon to be (absolutely) lodged tax return?

    I’m sceptical that a coalition govt would make it so easy for me, a non-rich ordinary taxpaying Australian.

  24. Fess yes as long as your tax payable is over $1,000. If you have been paying PAYG tax then you should get close to the $1,000 as a refund.

  25. C@tmomma:

    Whilst admiring you Labor credentials, I have to say that yours, Boerwar’s, breifly’s persistent antagonism towards the Greens is counterproductive – most, it seems, over it.

  26. Was a massive fan of Albo a few years back.

    Capitulating to the Tories and their talking points makes me feel ill.

    There has been no proper analysis by the Labor party (remembering the inner city seats including Libs were swinging to them) of this result, just head bowing to the born to leads apparently is the new normal.

    What cowards. What small minded people. What a lack of vision.

    What a joke.

    But if they can keep themselves there after the next election a few extra bob is in the pocket.

    I guess that’s something.

    P.S: To those who say we should be arguing about the Liberals… Most decent people know they are fucked, no point having a wine tasting when it’s bottles of vinegar you are supping on and fwa fwaing about it.

  27. I think zoomster was right when she said Labor needed two candidates to stand for leader and sort out some principles. This looks like abject cowardice.

  28. Davidwh:

    Well as an ordinary taxpayer with no dependents, I don’t think I’ve ever benefited from a coalition tax cut in my working life. If this comes off (and it’s a big if for me given the history), I’ll be surprised.

  29. C@tmomma @ #1564 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 8:51 pm

    And, in order to do this they first have to win an election. 😐

    Sure. But doing it Trojan horse style by voting in favor of tax cuts for the rich only to repeal them once getting a foot through the door? Seems like a good strategy for becoming a single-term government at best. Labor has left itself with two three losing options:

    1. Lie and claim they’re not going to repeal the tax cuts, then do it anyways.
    2. Openly campaign on repealing a policy they’re now on the record as voting for.
    3. Just let the cuts stand; no dishonesty required, but then what’s the point of Labor?

    And meanwhile, the incessant leftwise fence-sitting claims more victims:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-brexit-corbyn-opinion-poll-yougov-general-election-conservatives-a8987491.html

    All these “leaders” who can’t pick a side and prosecute the argument of why it’s the right one should just get the hell out of politics; they failed to read the job description. Or at least join a right-wing party and sabotage someone who deserves it for once.

    With the exception of Ardern, the current crop of left-wing leadership is so hopelessly craven that I’m reduced to relying on centrists like Merkel and Trudeau to somehow hang on and keep the crazies from taking over literally everywhere (except NZ).

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