Essential Research leadership polling

A belated account of the first set of post-election leadership ratings, recording a victory bounce for Scott Morrison and a tentative debut for Anthony Albanese.

Contrary to expectations it might put its head above the parapet with today’s resumption of parliament, there is still no sign of Newspoll – or indeed any other polling series, at least so far as voting intention is concerned. Essential Research, however, is maintaining its regular polling schedule, but so far it’s been attitudinal polling only. The latest set of results was published in The Guardian on Friday, and it encompasses Essential’s leadership ratings series, which I relate here on a better-late-than-never basis. Featured are the first published ratings for Anthony Albanese, of 35% approval and 25% disapproval, compared with 38% and 44% in the pollster’s final pre-election reading for Bill Shorten.

To put this into some sort of perspective, the following table (click on image to enlarge) provides comparison with Newspoll’s debut results for opposition leaders over the past three decades. The only thing it would seem safe to conclude from this is that Albanese’s numbers aren’t terribly extraordinary one way or the other.

Scott Morrison’s post-election bounce lifts him five points on approval to 48%, with disapproval down three to 36%, and he leads Albanese 43-25 on preferred prime minister, compared with 39-32 for Shorten’s late result. Also featured are questions on tax cuts (with broadly negative responses to the government policy, albeit that some of the question framing is a little slanted for mine), trust in various media outlets (results near-identical to those from last October, in spite of everything), and various indigenous issues (including a finding that 57% would vote yes in a constitutional recognition referendum, compared with 34% for no). The poll was conducted June 19 to June 23 from an online sample of 1079.

Elsewhere in poll-dom:

• Australian Market and Social Research Organisations has established an advisory board and panel for its inquiry into the pollster failure, encompassing an impressive roll call of academics, journalists and statisticians. Ipsos would appear to be the only major Australian polling concern that’s actually a member of AMSRO, but the organisation has “invited a publisher representative from each of Nine Entertainment (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and NewsCorp to join the advisory board”.

• A number of efforts have now been made to reverse-engineer a polling trend measure for the last term, using the actual results from 2016 and 2019 as anchoring points. The effort of Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo at the University of Sydney was noted here last week. Mark the Ballot offers three models – one anchored to the 2016 result, which lands low for the Coalition in 2019, but still higher than what the polls were saying); one anchored to the 2019 result, designed to land on the mark for 2019, but resulting in a high reading for the Coalition in 2016; and, most instructively, one anchored to both, which is designed to land on the mark at both elections. Kevin Bonham offers various approaches that involve polling going off the rails immediately or gradually after the leadership change, during the election campaign, or combinations thereof.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,688 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

  1. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 5:44 pm

    The one clear and consistent from the Greens comes down to this:
    Having never experienced it, they simply do not understand political power.
    The genuinely believe that sound and light is a reasonable substitute.
    ___________________________
    Apparently they have also never experienced the political insight held by an elderly man who occasionally pretends to be an octopus.

  2. You know .. I put a lot of blame at the feet of Kim Carr and the Vic industrial left for propping up the Shorten years of Labor self-destruction.


  3. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 5:42 pm
    ….
    Labor voted FOR the Govts tax cuts.

    And why not, the Liberal/green campaign machine will win the next election. It will be a Liberal/Green problem.

    The green party campaigned hard for this outcome, be happy.

  4. Rex Douglas @ #1447 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 5:42 pm

    Boerwar @ #1430 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 5:16 pm

    Peeps should be 100% clear.
    Labor is in no position to ‘do’ anything now.
    That is the price for not having political power.
    The Greens are used to this, having been in this situation for the past 27 years. So, they simply shrug their shoulders when asked what they are actually doing in any substantive sense.
    Because the answer for 27 years has been the same: ‘nothing’.
    At the same time the Greens constantly demand that Labor ‘does’ this or that.
    It can’t.
    The tax cuts are Coalition and xbench tax cuts.
    End of story.

    Labor voted FOR the Govts tax cuts.

    Didn’t abstain…. or vote against …. VOTED FOR Scomo’s tax cuts.

    Another Lib-Lab unity ticket to add to the long list.

    Commercial news telly saying $1000 will turn up in the bank from tomorrow.
    Gee I wonder who the punters will blame when that doesn’t happen.

  5. The Guardian

    The tax package will be legislated by next week, and the ATO has already said it will have the structures in place to pass on the first rebate – up to $1,215, depending on how much you earn – by next week.

  6. Maybe it’s time to have a mature, adult conversation about an orderly liquidation of the ALP.

    You all know it makes sense ….

  7. Pegasus @ #1459 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 5:55 pm

    The Guardian

    The tax package will be legislated by next week, and the ATO has already said it will have the structures in place to pass on the first rebate – up to $1,215, depending on how much you earn – by next week.

    According to everyone I’ve heard so far on this millions of Australian will receive $1008 as early as next week.
    Pretty sure this is not right.

  8. After 27 years of being powerless the Greens genuinely think that the important thing about a vote is that it is morally pure.
    This leads the Greens into endless examinations of the minutiae of process or nuance of meaning of tactics of he said she said.
    Thus the Greens thought it was genuinely significant that McKim ran for the Senate Presidency.
    Everyone but the Greens understood that it had no significance whatsoever because McKim did not have the votes.
    The important thing about a vote is when it either stops something or promotes something.
    After 27 years, the Greens simply cannot accept that, for obvious reasons.

  9. Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 6:03 pm

    Maybe it’s time to have a mature, adult conversation about an orderly liquidation of the ALP.

    You all know it makes sense ….
    ____________________
    yes very probably. I would like Littlefinger to take the helm of a sub party formation centered around himself, the SDA and Kimberley Kitching et al.

  10. Rex, where is that “Labor self-destruction” you are talking about?… and that “we should all know about”?….

    ScuMo and his gang are lost and don’t have a clue what to do next, except follow IPA’s directives (which ultimately come for the Billionaires financing them) to decrease taxes on the 1%, and cut services for the rest. It’s the same bankrupt Neoliberalism that is sending the entire world to a GFC-2…. Is ScuMo prepared for a GFC-2 and an Australian recession?

    Labor will be happily and calmly watching this show from the benches of the opposition… and, in fact, witness the self-destruction of this Government….

  11. “an orderly liquidation of the ALP”…

    Ha, ha, ha… Hey, nath, that was a great clowning act…. ever thought of joining a circus?

  12. Holy shit. I just found out that Abbott was in the public gallery this week watching proceedings. Seriously that is as weird and stalkerish as shit. This dude has some serious issues.

  13. Paddy Manning:

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/04/2019/1562219571/tax-deal-done

    The real opposition came from the Greens treasury spokesperson, Peter Whish-Wilson, who gave one of his best speeches today, saying the tax-cuts package “may be the most important bill we debate in the 46th parliament”. Whish-Wilson asked why the Senate had not done its job and referred stage three to an inquiry for scrutiny (as The Australia Institute revealed last weekend, it is the biggest single budget measure to escape an inquiry), simply to suit the political imperative of the government. “If politics is a contest of ideas, there does not seem to be much of a contest,” Whish-Wilson said. Without exaggeration, he said, what is happening in the Australian economy right now is “extraordinary … unheralded”. Interest rates and bond yields at record lows, wage growth at its worst since World War Two, the link between productivity growth and wages growth broken. “It irks me that this government, this parliament, if it passes these tax laws, has failed to learn the lessons of the GFC – failed to overthrow the shackles of neoliberalism.” The tax cuts, he said, were deliberately designed “to bleed the carcass so there is no choice but to cut government expenditure on the most vulnerable people in this country – the battlers”. What’s the bet no one was listening.

  14. Pegasus says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:39 pm

    Anthony Albanese says Labor is saying “very clearly” that at this stage, it is against stage three, but the party will make a final decision on its position on that 2024 stage closer to the next election (in three years time).

    So Labor is saying it will pass this whole package – even the bits it doesn’t like – but reserves the right to possibly repeal the last stage.

    Earth to Peg.

    The Government have the numbers to pass the tax cuts, so it is irrelevant how Labor decide to vote.

  15. For the $158b cost of the tax cuts that LNP & ALP just voted for, we could build houses for every homeless person in Australia, get dental into Medicare and still have money left over. We should use public money to reduce inequality, not for tax cuts for millionaires.#Greens— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) July 4, 2019

  16. B in

    The Government have the numbers to pass the tax cuts, so it is irrelevant how Labor decide to vote.

    Earth to Barney

    The Greens party has 1 MP in the HoR and 9 senators. So it’s irrelevant how they vote as well.

    But the carry on by a couple of hate-fuelled Laborites that the Greens are responsible for Labor’s political strategy and how it voted is all the go.

    Labor needs to take responsibility for its actions, political strategy and how it votes.

  17. Bellwether says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 6:22 pm
    All LNP pre-election policies enacted ✓
    Three years of thumb-twiddling ✓
    ________________________
    Next is the union integrity legislation which is also likely to pass.

    You wind up organisations that are unable to function, the ALP can’t stop regressive tax cuts and cannot stop anti-union legislation. A wind-up will allow true progressive organisations to replace the ALP. New growth and new hope!

  18. What Fierravanti-Wells said to Credlin:

    “One day, Tony will be sitting on a park bench in Manly feeding the pigeons, and he will blame you,”

    The park bench day is approaching!

  19. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/04/coalition-forced-to-explain-conduct-of-taylor-and-frydenberg-over-endangered-grasslands

    The government will be forced to explain the conduct of two of its senior ministers – Angus Taylor and Josh Frydenberg – in relation to critically endangered grasslands at the centre of an investigation involving companies part-owned by Taylor.

    A Greens motion to compel the explanation passed the Senate with support from Labor, Centre Alliance, One Nation and Jacqui Lambie on Thursday.

    During the next sitting period, the government’s leader in the Senate, Mathias Cormann, will have to explain the actions of both ministers “and how it is not a breach of the ministerial standards”.

    He will also have to say whether there has been or will be an investigation into the conduct of Taylor and Frydenberg.

  20. Pegasus says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 5:01 pm

    Email from Market Forces re financing of the Carmichael mine:

    “Last November Adani said it would “self-finance” the climate-wrecking Carmichael coal mine and rail project, having failed to convince any financial institutions to back its mega mine.

    But what if Adani could get big investors to finance the Carmichael mine via another part of the company’s business?

    This week Adani issued bonds for one part of its business, Adani Ports and SEZ. Recently uncovered evidence* has shown how Adani routinely moves money between various companies within the corporate group. Without strict restrictions, there’s no reason why a loan to Adani’s ports business couldn’t wind up financing the Carmichael coal mine.
    :::
    An investigation in the Indian media* found that the Adani group of companies has regularly funded its expansion through inter-company investments and loans. Money raised in one part of the group can be used to fund expansion plans elsewhere.
    :::
    This means that the banks which have taken part in Adani Ports’ most recent bond issue could easily find their money shifted across to Adani Mining, without strict conditions.”

    So what?

    The only problem I see here is that the money shouldn’t be considered a loan and no interest should be due on it.

    That is just a tool to shift profits.

  21. Nath I expect that Ex-PMs are official guests at the State Opening of Parliament. He was sitting with Howard. Not sure if Keating, Turnbull, Gillard and the other dick were there but I think it disappointing if they aren’t

  22. Yes of course OC. But it’s not mandatory, particularly when you’ve just been thrown out. He wanted to be there for some reason. I just thought that the first day of Parliament Abbott free in nearly 30 years was ruined by the presence of…… Abbott.

  23. So what?

    So an investor might feel they have a reasonable expectation that the money they invest in something goes to supporting the thing they invested in and isn’t siphoned off into something completely or largely unrelated.

    Kind of like if you put your money into Tesla, you expect it to be used to build electric cars and not shifted over to The Boring Company and pissed away on the ‘Hyperloop’ pipe-dream or novelty flamethrowers.

  24. Oakeshott Country says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 6:39 pm
    Nath I expect that Ex-PMs are official guests at the State Opening of Parliament. He was sitting with Howard. Not sure if Keating, Turnbull, Gillard and the other dick were there but I think it disappointing if they aren’t
    ____________________
    I was disappointed to see Nick Lalich didn’t get a guernsey in the NSW Shadow Cabinet. You?

  25. Pegasus says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 6:27 pm

    B in

    The Government have the numbers to pass the tax cuts, so it is irrelevant how Labor decide to vote.

    Earth to Barney

    The Greens party has 1 MP in the HoR and 9 senators. So it’s irrelevant how they vote as well.

    But the carry on by a couple of hate-fuelled Laborites that the Greens are responsible for Labor’s political strategy and how it voted is all the go.

    Labor needs to take responsibility for its actions and political strategy.

    You’re the one claiming that Labor “will pass this whole package”.

    The Government and required crossbenches have ensured the Bill’s passage.

    Albo just recognised that their attempt to amend the Bill wasn’t successful and how they might proceed.

    As for irrelevance of any group’s vote, that all depends on whether changing their vote will make a difference to the final outcome.

    If you’re on the losing side of a vote then your vote is indeed irrelevant.

  26. Oakeshott Country says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 6:50 pm
    I guess Nick needs to concentrate on Cabramatta; I don’t think he is half the local member that Reba was.
    ________________________
    When the cock crows oc, how many of the State ALP would deny ever knowing Joe and Reba?

  27. Peg

    ‘The real opposition came from the Greens treasury spokesperson, Peter Whish-Wilson, who gave one of his best speeches today,…’

    Uh huh. He talked. And for what. He did not have the numbers. I wonder whether the Greens will ever understand the basic reality of politics.

    After 27 years the likelihood is not high.

  28. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 7:01 pm
    Peg

    ‘The real opposition came from the Greens treasury spokesperson, Peter Whish-Wilson, who gave one of his best speeches today,…’

    Uh huh. He talked. And for what. He did not have the numbers. I wonder whether the Greens will ever understand the basic reality of politics.

    After 27 years the likelihood is not high.
    _________________________
    Did you discuss these views with bluey? What was his view?

  29. Larissa Waters used the phrase “taxpayers’ money”.

    It isn’t “taxpayers’ money”. It is the Australian Government’s currency. When we pay tax the government is deleting some of its currency out of existence.

    The government spends its currency into existence by marking up Exchange Settlement Accounts at the Reserve Bank of Australia.

    The government taxes its currency out of existence by marking down Exchange Settlement Accounts at the Reserve Bank of Australia.

    It is better to say public funds or government funds or public spending or government spending.

  30. Ha ha! I was just watching Richard Di Natale ranting and raving in the Senate…against Labor. Because. Natch. When I looked further afield and saw that Jordan Steele-John was so invested in his leader’s speech…he didn’t look up once from his phone. 😆

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