Essential Research leadership polling

A belated account of the first set of post-election leadership ratings, recording a victory bounce for Scott Morrison and a tentative debut for Anthony Albanese.

Contrary to expectations it might put its head above the parapet with today’s resumption of parliament, there is still no sign of Newspoll – or indeed any other polling series, at least so far as voting intention is concerned. Essential Research, however, is maintaining its regular polling schedule, but so far it’s been attitudinal polling only. The latest set of results was published in The Guardian on Friday, and it encompasses Essential’s leadership ratings series, which I relate here on a better-late-than-never basis. Featured are the first published ratings for Anthony Albanese, of 35% approval and 25% disapproval, compared with 38% and 44% in the pollster’s final pre-election reading for Bill Shorten.

To put this into some sort of perspective, the following table (click on image to enlarge) provides comparison with Newspoll’s debut results for opposition leaders over the past three decades. The only thing it would seem safe to conclude from this is that Albanese’s numbers aren’t terribly extraordinary one way or the other.

Scott Morrison’s post-election bounce lifts him five points on approval to 48%, with disapproval down three to 36%, and he leads Albanese 43-25 on preferred prime minister, compared with 39-32 for Shorten’s late result. Also featured are questions on tax cuts (with broadly negative responses to the government policy, albeit that some of the question framing is a little slanted for mine), trust in various media outlets (results near-identical to those from last October, in spite of everything), and various indigenous issues (including a finding that 57% would vote yes in a constitutional recognition referendum, compared with 34% for no). The poll was conducted June 19 to June 23 from an online sample of 1079.

Elsewhere in poll-dom:

• Australian Market and Social Research Organisations has established an advisory board and panel for its inquiry into the pollster failure, encompassing an impressive roll call of academics, journalists and statisticians. Ipsos would appear to be the only major Australian polling concern that’s actually a member of AMSRO, but the organisation has “invited a publisher representative from each of Nine Entertainment (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and NewsCorp to join the advisory board”.

• A number of efforts have now been made to reverse-engineer a polling trend measure for the last term, using the actual results from 2016 and 2019 as anchoring points. The effort of Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo at the University of Sydney was noted here last week. Mark the Ballot offers three models – one anchored to the 2016 result, which lands low for the Coalition in 2019, but still higher than what the polls were saying); one anchored to the 2019 result, designed to land on the mark for 2019, but resulting in a high reading for the Coalition in 2016; and, most instructively, one anchored to both, which is designed to land on the mark at both elections. Kevin Bonham offers various approaches that involve polling going off the rails immediately or gradually after the leadership change, during the election campaign, or combinations thereof.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,688 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

  1. Professor O’Brien added that none of the academic papers cited by the Fair Work Commission in its decision to cut rates “contained sound empirical analysis of the employment impact of penalty rates”.

    This is what happens when you stack these places with your ideological foot soldier IR warriors.

  2. Trump has learned a thing or two from Kim. Understandably this is being received with derision.

    But in recent days, another issue has competed for Smith’s attention: How to satisfy President Trump’s request to station tanks or other armored military vehicles on the Mall for his planned Fourth of July address to the nation.

    The ongoing negotiations over whether to use massive military hardware, such as Abrams tanks or Bradley Fighting Vehicles, as a prop for Trump’s “Salute to America” is just one of many unfinished details when it comes to the celebration planned for Thursday, according to several people briefed on the plan, who spoke on the anonymity to speak frankly.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/trump-asks-for-military-tanks-on-the-mall-as-part-of-grandiose-july-fourth-event/2019/07/01/e9d274ee-9adc-11e9-8d0a-5edd7e2025b1_story.html?utm_term=.856b98670ce9

  3. Jake TapperVerified account@jaketapper
    52m52 minutes ago
    New CNN national poll of Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, post-debates:

    Biden 22%
    Harris 17%
    Warren 15%
    Sanders 14%
    Buttigieg 4%
    Booker 3%
    O’Rourke 3%
    Klobuchar 2%

    Margin of error: +/-4.7% pts

  4. Morning all. Take care BK. Scomo proves again that the fundy right will never be appeased and demands more protected status for religion. Why? We already have an anti-discrimination act that includes religion. The only purpose of this act can be to place religion above race and gender in the legal pecking order. In other words, freedom for the religious to didcriminate.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-01/scott-morrison-promises-religious-discrimination-act-this-year/11269018

    The Liberals might as well rename themselves the Republicans, except that they will never permit a republic. They are the enemies of freedom.

  5. Confessions
    After seeing snippets of the US debates, I hope the democrats select Warren, or maybe Harris. I do not know if they will win, but Biden and Sanders will not win. They were not inspiring and had no new ideas. Same with Beto O’Rourke. Warren and Harris were the only ones that impressed me.

  6. C@t, you published a photo of Jenny Morrison in non-Amish mode laughing with Trump…note how there was no msm comment of this. In fact, haven’t been able to find it- would you mind reposting?
    Cheers.

  7. I trust that ScoMo won’t interrupt Cabinet Meetings with a sudden call for prayers during discussions. It would pile irony upon irony, when so many Coalition decisions go directly against compassion or charity.

  8. Socrates:

    Warren is incredibly divisive and Beto tanked before he even started. But out of all of them Buttigieg has impressed me.

    I think we Australians also underestimate the vast divide between people in cities and in the rural parts of America. I’m not sure how well Harris would appeal to voters in those purple states.

  9. MSM telly news getting stuck into Labor from day 1.
    It’s all about Labor.
    Albanese should tell Scrott to stick his 3rd stage tax cuts and shouldn’t insist he bring forward stage 2.
    Let the STRONG economy come a cropper.

  10. Quasar @ #9 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 7:44 am

    Cat, you published a photo of Jenny Morrison in non-Amish mode laughing with Trump…note how there was no msm comment of this. In fact, haven’t been able to find it- would you mind reposting?
    Cheers.

    I’ll need to go back, page by page, through the last few threads, so it will take some time but I will do it! Just keep an eye out for it. You won’t be able to miss it. 🙂

  11. lizzie @ #10 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 7:48 am

    I trust that ScoMo won’t interrupt Cabinet Meetings with a sudden call for prayers during discussions. It would pile irony upon irony, when so many Coalition decisions go directly against compassion or charity.

    I hope he does.
    I hope he goes completely off the fcking reservation.
    I hope he starts swinging off one hinge.

  12. Confessions @ #11 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 7:53 am

    Socrates:

    Warren is incredibly divisive and Beto tanked before he even started. But out of all of them Buttigieg has impressed me.

    I think we Australians also underestimate the vast divide between people in cities and in the rural parts of America. I’m not sure how well Harris would appeal to voters in those purple states.

    Not at all. Buttigieg from Indiana might be the best placed to do so, with Kamala Harris as his VP running mate. They are both very, very smart and good politicians to boot. Buttigieg just had a public test of his leadership abilities, with the police shooting of an African American man in South Bend and he owned it, which let the steam out of the issue. So I think it will stand him in good stead.

    And Kamala Harris would know how to own Trump. 🙂

  13. Perhaps Scomo will argue that Pell and other religious leaders should not be trialled for paedophile offences as it would be an unreasonable intrusion of the State into traditional church practices?

  14. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I’m quite a bit late today – sorry about that.

    Peter Hartcher begins his article with, “Donald Trump’s performance in Asia on the weekend displayed, more forcefully than ever, why US allies cannot leave their futures in America’s hands. That includes Australia.” He then outlines some of what Hugh Whit has said in his new book.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-forced-to-confront-a-scary-subject-20190701-p522wg.html
    David Crowe continues his current spate of Coalition announcements by saying that Labor knows it cannot risk voting against the government’s full income tax package.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-is-delaying-the-inevitable-20190701-p5233s.html
    And Eryk Bagshaw writes that Labor MPs have returned to Canberra following their election loss with a warning to new leader Anthony Albanese that the party’s position on the tax package is depriving it of political oxygen.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-prepares-to-back-coalition-s-158b-tax-cut-package-20190701-p5232l.html
    The Grattan Institute explains how stages 1 and 2 of the tax cuts should pass. But Stage 3 would return us to the 1950s.
    https://theconversation.com/stages-1-and-2-of-the-tax-cuts-should-pass-but-stage-3-would-return-us-to-the-1950s-119637
    The latest data from the Bureau of Statistics shows current policy settings are causing wider and deeper economic hardship. Alan Austin reports.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/house-prices-and-household-income-plummet-under-the-coalition,12859
    The AFR says that the big four argue customers will be the big losers if a plan to force banks into verifying borrower expenses succeeds.
    https://outline.com/fjWwrq
    But it also tells us that the major banks are whingeing loudly about responsible lending laws being a barrier to providing finance but we shouldn’t be fooled.
    https://outline.com/LVRk96
    Mark Latham gets stuck into the macroplanning of the burgeoning development of western Sydney. 1.3 million people and no hospital for starters.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-city-of-1-3-million-on-sydney-s-fringe-but-no-hospital-20190701-p522y0.html
    According to the AFR another cash rate cut could trigger a race to the bottom that will push banks into “uncharted territory” for term deposits and savings accounts.
    https://outline.com/CyhHf2
    The challenge the Morrison government faces in meeting future climate targets without new policies is underlined by an analysis that breaks down how significantly greenhouse gas emissions are increasing from transport, natural gas and coalmining.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/02/australia-wont-reach-paris-target-without-action-on-transport-lng-and-coal-expert-says
    The evidence is mounting that Scott Morrison was very tricky in last year’s coup in which he took the prime ministership, and there is a big lesson for him from one of the Liberal Party’s iconic leaders, writes Paul Bongiorno. He also looks at Morrison’s meanness.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/07/01/scott-morrison-john-howard/
    Latika Bourke tells us that Morrison says that employers should respect the private religious practice of their staff. Fine – but PRIVATELY!
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/employers-should-respect-the-private-religious-practice-of-their-staff-scott-morrison-says-20190701-p5234t.html
    Jobs growth in the retail and hospitality sectors has more than halved since the introduction of Sunday penalty rates, a new study has revealed.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/work/2019/07/01/penalty-rate-cuts-jobs-growth/
    Rod Sims has pledged to seek penalties if retailers don’t abide by the new rules on electricity offers and discounts.
    https://outline.com/c6PC2C
    Even in the world of the revolving door of politician-turned-lobbyist, Pyne’s announcement of his new role with Ernst and Young was something of a record, writes Binoy Kampmark.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/christopher-pyne-and-the-canberra-revolving-door,12857
    Jenna Price explores the subject of membership to political parties.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-rush-to-join-but-do-political-parties-want-new-members-20190701-p5232v.html
    An interesting contribution from Jill stark on the paradox of choice.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/how-the-paradox-of-choice-keeps-you-scrolling-through-netflix-20190701-p5231b.html
    ‘The boats are coming’ is one of the greatest lies told to the Australian people, writes Behrouz Boochani.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/02/the-boats-are-coming-is-one-of-the-greatest-lies-told-to-the-australian-people
    And Kristina Keneally says Peter Dutton should not use medical transfers in a punitive fashion.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/01/coalition-accused-of-cruelty-for-crueltys-sake-over-medevac-refugees
    “What if Israel Folau was a bureaucrat?”, asks Markus Mannheim.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6246220/what-if-israel-folau-was-a-bureaucrat/?cs=14350
    Lawyers are fond of sending threat letters and demanding those who receive them keep it “Private and Confidential“. There is no basis in law for keeping unsolicited threats “Private and Confidential“. Stockbroker and writer Ben Pauley got one of these emails from Minter Ellison last week, reports Michael West.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/indiaore-and-twitter-one-good-suspension-deserves-another/
    “What’s happening to once happy and funky Melbourne?”, asks James Hughes.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-uptight-dark-side-of-melbourne-20190701-p522wt.html
    Neil McMahon announces the death of the Gold Logie.
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/rip-gold-logie-you-ve-had-your-moment-it-s-time-for-bed-20190701-p522tl.html
    Donald Trump has been accused of taking nepotism to alarming new depths after giving his daughter, Ivanka, a prominent role in meetings with the G20 and Kim Jong-un.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/01/donald-trump-ivanka-g20-north-korea-nepotism
    While Suzanne Moore says that we laugh at Ivanka Trump – because to take her seriously is frightening.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/01/ivanka-trump-g20-ghastly-spectacle-rise-unelected
    Actor John Jarrett earns nomination for “Arsehole of the Week” over these allegations at his trial.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/john-jarratt-tore-woman-s-clothes-with-force-before-rape-in-1976-court-told-20190701-p522we.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Scary stuff from David Rowe.

    David Pope on the swearing in of our new G-G.

    More from Pope.

    From Matt Golding.


    Andrew Dyson sees through Trump.

    As does Zanetti.

    Glen Le Lievre at the DMZ.

    Jon Kudelka an Morrison’s seizure of the PMship.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/f92867d4e8634be54db3f5fe88896ad7?width=1024

    From the US







  15. Thank goodness the federal Labor MPs analysis of the tax cuts is more sophisticated and nuanced than mundo’s hot take.

    Anthony Albanese has been urged to “regain the faith” with tradies and workers earning six-figure salaries by backing tax cuts as fears grow the Prime Minister Scott Morrison will “name and shame” MPs if they block tax relief.

    The New Daily has confirmed Labor frontbenchers also fear the party is “politically dead” if it blocks tax relief and the wrong decision could haunt Mr Albanese’s leadership.

    There are fears that Mr Morrison will call a division in the House of Representatives and the Senate to “name and shame” Labor MPs who vote against the tax cuts as Labor did to him on the banking royal commission.

    During the discussions in ALP caucus, a number of MPs including Western Sydney’s Mike Freelander and Wollongong MP Sharon Bird warned that voters would turn on Labor if it blocked the cuts.

    If Labor repeals previously legislated tax cuts in 2024 to abolish the 37 cent tax rate, it will be proposing an income tax hike to any worker earning over $120,000.

    “I think we need to regain faith with those people and say, ‘You work hard’,” Dr Freelander told The New Daily.

    “There are lots of people out there who are traditional Labor voters who are earning good money.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/07/02/tax-cuts-dilemma-labor-anthony-albanese/

  16. So Labor has to allow tax bill to pass if they don’t have a majority, and the media interprets that as “caving in” (as will Greens and other parties, no doubt). From my position as a spectator, the new Labor Shadow Cabinet has not yet learned unity – too many voices giving their opinion.

    Edit: Before C@t jumps on me, I was referring to public voices, not in-caucus discussion.

  17. C@t, Soc:

    Buttigieg might be the youngest of the candidates, but he sounds like the adult in the room when he speaks. Perhaps he would make a great VP choice, assuming he doesn’t win the nomination.

  18. One more issue – falling wages and the status of unions. Labor normally only looks at this from the point of view of underpaid retail and childcare workers or overpaid tradies. Yet it can affect professions too, as this story about Boeing and IT engineers in the US demonstrates.
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/companies/boeing-s-737-max-software-outsourced-to-12-80-an-hour-engineers-20190629-p522h4.html

    There is a large potential for falling employment in accountancy and some areas of engineering in the near future. This would be a great opportunity for the Labor movement to modernise itself and expand. Except that there is presently no credible organisation that protects the working entitlements of professional staff.

    (Also the story shows that Boeing has been cutting corners on safety for years and it was only a matter of time before Max jets fell out of the sky.)

  19. Socrates,
    Employed Pharmacists, not shop owners, have been organising themselves via a union and campaigning for higher wages and better conditions for a few years now.

  20. lizzie @ #23 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 8:04 am

    So Labor has to allow tax bill to pass if they don’t have a majority, and the media interprets that as “caving in” (as will Greens and other parties, no doubt). From my position as a spectator, the new Labor Cabinet has not yet learned unity – too many voices giving their opinion.

    As Julia Gillard sagely observed, it’s going to take months, not weeks, for the Labor Party to work through their loss. It would apply especially keenly to the MPs themselves.

  21. Some years ago now, there was a fight in Europe over a woman’s right to wear a little cross on a chain. I think France had banned religious symbols at work??

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/employers-should-respect-the-private-religious-practice-of-their-staff-scott-morrison-says-20190701-p5234t.html

    I think it would be a marvellous idea if Morrison insisted on returning penalty rates to Sundays in recognition of Christians’ right to worship!!

  22. Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP

    So if I religiously disagree with terminations, for example, I’m allowed to wave placards out the front of my workplace outside office hours saying women who have abortions are murderers? And the employer has no rights to do anything about it? Genuine question!

    In other words, Scott ‘AA’ Morrison is seeking to make it illegal for employers to terminate the employment of religious bigots like Israel Folau.

  23. Emma Husar
    @emmahusarmp

    If your pay was cut by $2000 a year what would you go without? I’ll pass the suggestions on to the 700,000 people (our lowest paid workers) who today face that scenario when their #PenaltyRates got slashed.
    AND IT DIDN’T CREATE A SINGLE JOB #auspol

  24. “In other words, Scott ‘AA’ Morrison is seeking to make it illegal for employers to terminate the employment of religious bigots like Israel Folau.”

    Yup. The man is utter contemptible scum.

  25. Morning all

    Much thanks BK for today’s reports.

    I read the article dark Side of Melbourne. Not sure where this person is coming from.
    We have a booming population and stands to reason, there would be more imprisonments.
    Secondly, having more law enforcement people around major public stations etc is not a bad thing. Has the writer of the article forgotten the several drug induced rampages that have occurred in recent years.
    What should be done instead. Sweet f….. all?

    As I said, don’t see the point of the article.

  26. Read an excellent article on ‘Missionism’ (here?) and this religious freedom palaver is only the beginning!
    I just hope there are enough strong pluralist voices against this hijacking of our democracy.

  27. KNOT (Toolangi)@knittingnannasT

    Kinglake 30 June 2019 #extinction #LoggingKillsWildlife

    Not phrased very well, but it tells the story.

  28. jansant@Jansant
    9h9 hours ago

    I thought the most surreal snippet in #qanda was the hard right James Patterson expressing his view that views of the hard right don’t get to express their views on #ourABC. Truly bizarre. #auspol

  29. Some people are saying it is ‘politically smart’ not to oppose the 3rd package of tax cuts. So how did the train load of waving through because it was ‘politically smart’ in the years before the election work out ? If it is wrong or irresponsible to make the changes then FFS oppose them. Show that you stand for something and will fight for what you believe.

  30. It really feels as if a considerable chunk of the population is devolving rather than evolving. Could that be the reason for our current malaise?

  31. lizzie says:

    Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 8:48 am
    jansant@Jansant
    9h9 hours ago

    I thought the most surreal snippet in #qanda was the hard right James Patterson expressing his view that views of the hard right don’t get to express their views on #ourABC. Truly bizarre. #auspol

    Patterson has a point. They only get to express publicly acceptable views , what they really think is too horrifying to be expressed currently on the ABC.

  32. Mr Van Onselen, imacca etc – I’m pretty sure that what Morrison has said is exactly what the Anti-discrimination legislation says.
    The question of how that relates to the Folau situation where a high profile employee uses social media to express a religious viewpoint that an employer (and their sponsors) disagrees looks likely to be clarified by the courts.

  33. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 8:04 am

    There are lots of people out there who are traditional Labor voters who are earning good money.”

    … and therefore don’t need a tax cut.

  34. “Confessions @ #11 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 7:53 am

    I’m not sure how well Harris would appeal to voters in those purple states.
    Voters in those purple states will get behind a white man. Any white man.”

    Like Obama?

    You plonker.

  35. Barney in Makassar @ #44 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 9:02 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 8:04 am

    There are lots of people out there who are traditional Labor voters who are earning good money.”

    … and therefore don’t need a tax cut.

    You are in a minority here. They earn that money and they vote. Plus, it WAS just about the only policy ‘AA’ took to the election, and he won.

  36. C@

    Right. So we stop funding education, health, infrastructure because people don’t want to pay tax.

    Of course if you ask people if they want less money, they’re going to say of course not.

    Unfortunately, what we need in caucus is MPs from the states where we didn’t win seats (and by definition, we don’t have them). If we’ve got a Labor MP arguing that tax cuts are necessary to appeal to their electorate, almost by definition they are wrong, because if that was true, they wouldn’t be in the room to argue that.

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