Contrary to expectations it might put its head above the parapet with today’s resumption of parliament, there is still no sign of Newspoll – or indeed any other polling series, at least so far as voting intention is concerned. Essential Research, however, is maintaining its regular polling schedule, but so far it’s been attitudinal polling only. The latest set of results was published in The Guardian on Friday, and it encompasses Essential’s leadership ratings series, which I relate here on a better-late-than-never basis. Featured are the first published ratings for Anthony Albanese, of 35% approval and 25% disapproval, compared with 38% and 44% in the pollster’s final pre-election reading for Bill Shorten.
To put this into some sort of perspective, the following table (click on image to enlarge) provides comparison with Newspoll’s debut results for opposition leaders over the past three decades. The only thing it would seem safe to conclude from this is that Albanese’s numbers aren’t terribly extraordinary one way or the other.
Scott Morrison’s post-election bounce lifts him five points on approval to 48%, with disapproval down three to 36%, and he leads Albanese 43-25 on preferred prime minister, compared with 39-32 for Shorten’s late result. Also featured are questions on tax cuts (with broadly negative responses to the government policy, albeit that some of the question framing is a little slanted for mine), trust in various media outlets (results near-identical to those from last October, in spite of everything), and various indigenous issues (including a finding that 57% would vote yes in a constitutional recognition referendum, compared with 34% for no). The poll was conducted June 19 to June 23 from an online sample of 1079.
Elsewhere in poll-dom:
• Australian Market and Social Research Organisations has established an advisory board and panel for its inquiry into the pollster failure, encompassing an impressive roll call of academics, journalists and statisticians. Ipsos would appear to be the only major Australian polling concern that’s actually a member of AMSRO, but the organisation has “invited a publisher representative from each of Nine Entertainment (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and NewsCorp to join the advisory board”.
• A number of efforts have now been made to reverse-engineer a polling trend measure for the last term, using the actual results from 2016 and 2019 as anchoring points. The effort of Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo at the University of Sydney was noted here last week. Mark the Ballot offers three models – one anchored to the 2016 result, which lands low for the Coalition in 2019, but still higher than what the polls were saying); one anchored to the 2019 result, designed to land on the mark for 2019, but resulting in a high reading for the Coalition in 2016; and, most instructively, one anchored to both, which is designed to land on the mark at both elections. Kevin Bonham offers various approaches that involve polling going off the rails immediately or gradually after the leadership change, during the election campaign, or combinations thereof.
Van Badham
@vanbadham
Former Port Adelaide player Scott Cummings has been slammed by domestic violence groups after he joked about sexual assault on his podcast with Dane Swan.
3AW is considering its relationship with Cummings after he laughed while reading out apparent sex acts, including “sneaking up” on a woman while she was vomiting on the ground, and masturbating into a sleeping woman’s face.
C@t
They represent the top 10% how many would ever vote for Labor ? It’s pursuing a fraction of a fraction. Every vote counts but let’s remember the 90% who will end up paying by way of less services etc etc.
Albo attending church with Morrison….don’t like the optics of ‘same/same’.
Also, we are a secular society and the benefits of this should be loudly applauded. Atheists /non believers may need to form a church/union just to become an effective voice.
This is starting to feel like theocracy by stealth.
Further, while I loathed Abbott’s oppositional tactics , they worked and now Labor needs to stress how we differ from the LNP .
Time for some mongrel…and I am sad to have come to this view.
C@t,
You’re starting to sound like Morrison with his, It’s your money, line.
So, your view is an election victory gives you a mandate irrespective of what the numbers are in the Chambers.
In Victoria Labor stalls on action plan as greater glider slides towards extinction
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-stalls-on-action-plan-as-greater-glider-slides-towards-extinction-20190628-p522dh.html
lizzie @ #49 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 9:09 am
‘AA’ stands for ‘Absolute Arsehole’. And it wasn’t me who came up with it, either. We have Michael Keenan to thank for that. 🙂
C@t
Thanks. I also saw “A.Albanese” and it made nonsense of it.
Today Reserve a Bank meets.
Will rate be cut further?
Bucephalus @ #43 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 8:59 am
He said that employers shouldn’t do things that impinge upon areas of private practice, private belief, and private activity. I very much doubt that the Anti-discrimination legislation says anything along those lines. You want the Pro-privacy legislation, or something.
But I’m pretty sure Australia doesn’t have that. Unless you’re the government. Then you get as much privacy as you like, and the ability to jail for a very long time anyone who dares challenge it.
And of course Morrison’s remark has no relevance to Folau. Publicly proclaiming to your legions of fans that the gays will burn isn’t private anything. Nor is it any sort of established rite or practice in any religion I’ve ever heard of. It’s just needless public jackassery, which is not guaranteed by any legislation to be free from consequences.
Van Badham should run for parliament rather than talking a good game from the bleachers
Just as Morrison has built the Setka controversy into a reason to attack all union activity, he is using Folau to pitch more ‘religious freedom’. Restriction on one side, relaxation on the other.
…
The Guardian – Albanese:
A worker earning more than $180,000 deserves a tax cut.
Thousands of children, families, people living in poverty trying to survive on Newstart that hasn’t been raised for a quarter of a century due to bipartisan agreement.
Labor values and what deserves strong advocacy – what an indictment.
Zoomster @9:13
“Right. So we stop funding education, health, infrastructure because people don’t want to pay tax.”
I think that’s the general idea. It’s an attempt to bind future Governments. Once passed, the tax reductions will become for all practical purposes irreversible.
Barney in Makassar @ #56 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 9:16 am
Nice try at verballing me, but no. My ‘line’ is that Morrison took one policy to the election. That was it.
I can also count the numbers in the Chamber. I can also hear what CA, from your own State of SA are saying and it adds up to the tax cuts being passed anyway, no matter what Labor’s position is.
However, I fully expect Labor to stick with their position wrt Tax Cuts and say they are prepared to vote for Stage 1, want to bring forward Stage 2, and are opposed to Stage 3, most especially the flattening of the tax scales.
If CA + Jacqui Lambie, or CA + PHON (eventually after her usual grandstanding), vote for them then Labor can say what their position was and that they stood up for it.
On the other hand, there’s the ‘trying to govern from Opposition’ argument. Which, as I have stated previously goes to the fact that the one thing Morrison openly campaigned on was the tax cuts, so Labor can say, yes, you did campaign on it, though you will own it and all that flows from it. And then campaign like hell when every little cut is made and tie it back to this.
Otherwise, Labor have 3 years of, ‘Labor is for higher taxes’ to look forward to. And didn’t that go well for them this election?
Steve777 @ #65 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 9:27 am
Yeah, that. If you think the last election was won by a scare campaign on taxes you don’t want to see what it’ll look like if/when Labor has to run on actually increasing some taxes.
Crikey Worm – How Good is a Mandate?
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
and
Thanks ar for the use of the word jackassery in your item
Over and out. Mowing today.
With a little bit (repeat as necessary) nobody will want to hang anybody today. 😇
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 9:04 am
No, Catmomma that is not “the point” – that is an opinion.
There are two major problems with the statement that you copied:
1. The use if the term “denounce” is a very narrow interpretation of what was said. I, as many others here will also have, grew up going to church and being tod weekly, if not more often, that we are all sinners and are all going to hell unless we repent etc etc. The deeper theological discussion can then be argued about whether that is a denunciation or an exhortation to change.
2. Christians are also told it is their duty to preach the word publicly. That’s why they have missionaries. I have counsins about to leave Australia to go live in Bulgaria for a year or so as Missionaries. Why the Bulgars need saving is beyond me – but there you go. So, the claim that you can live you religion in private but not in public is a misinterpretation of both the religion and possibly the Act. To take this interpretation to its’ fullest extent would mean that the wearing of a cross would be to “in your face” because that is a reminder of what I discussed in point 1.
As I have said on numerous times – I look forward to the courts ruling on this.
I note that those who are incensed by Folau have little problem with QANTAS code sharing with airlines owned by theocracies that actively prosecute gays.
Coalition Governments have never respected the mandates on incoming Labor Governments. They will always use Senate pluralities left over from periods of Coalition dominance to thwart Labor’s plans.
So why should Labor respect this Government’s mandate, especially for tax reductions that don’t take effect until mid-way through the next Parliamentary term?
zoomster says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 9:13 am
“Right. So we stop funding education, health, infrastructure because people don’t want to pay tax.”
That’s just juvenile – the tax take will remain a very high proportion of GDP and Federal and State Government Expenditure will remain a significant proportion of GDP. Claiming otherwise is unsupported by the facts.
Although it’s a convention for the prime minister and the LOTO to attend church on the morning when parliament is formally opened, it’s not a good optic. And for Labor to cave in to passing the third round of tax cuts, as it now seems, gives the appearance that it’s running scared of the pressure being applied by Murdoch’s stable, the MSM generally. Labor must stand up for what it believes in, letting the cards fall where they will.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/02/action-now-the-farmers-standing-up-against-wilful-ignorance-on-climate?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Exhorting someone to change how they were born cannot be anything other than a denunciation and repudiation of their very existence. It’s narrow-minded and just plain mean.
poroti says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 9:15 am
“They represent the top 10% how many would ever vote for Labor ? It’s pursuing a fraction of a fraction. Every vote counts but let’s remember the 90% who will end up paying by way of less services etc etc.”
Pretty sure they tried that argument with against excess franking credits and negative gearing property – how’d that work for you?
Can you detail the services that are going to be cut?
Quasar says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 9:15 am
“This is starting to feel like theocracy by stealth.”
Get a grip.
How is it starting to feel like a theocracy?
Barney in Makassar says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 9:16 am
“You’re starting to sound like Morrison with his, It’s your money, line.”
It is their money. It only ends up with the government due to the tax laws.
One aspect of taxation that has always been an issue is overtime. Working overtime is hardly worth it. Most of your income is paid to the ATO. No one likes working simply to give it to the ATO. You can take that to the bank.
a r says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 9:24 am
I’m picking up that you haven’t done any training in relation to Anti-discrimination Laws nor had any significant exposure to a Christian Church in your upbringing.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
Can you detail the services that are going to be cut?
Can you detail the services that are NOT being cut?
shellbell says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 9:26 am
“Van Badham should run for parliament rather than talking a good game from the bleachers”
I think that one is not going to fly given some of her social media postings that are R18+ rated that would be rolled out.
So, South Australia is going to privatise their train and trams services. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-01/adelaide-trains-and-trams-to-be-privatised/11267236
How many times does this crap experiment have to be run before we decide once and for all it doesn’t work?
Victoria says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 9:48 am
How is most of your money paid to the ATO, when the highest tax bracket is less than 50%?
William, about time to update your side bar?
Meanwhile, if it needs any more coal-raking-over on the point of a new parliament:
-Governments lose office and Oppositions rarely win them in Oz
-Any government/opposition which gets in the way of giving money/taking away entitlements to/from the punter, and making it a policy, is on a loser…………eg the current tax “debate”.
-The punters have extremely short memories and what happens in the details of what transpires in the interim between now and the next election, will be lost in the mists of time.
-The last three weeks of the election cycle is the only one which matters and no party in Oz, from here on in, will ever be stupid enough to actually put any policy details on the table – something which former PMJG has also commented upon
-Changing leaders and damage to the party changing leaders is a myth. The “Unity at All Costs” stuff is meaningless – as currently demonstrated in the US, UK and here – among other places
-Democracy is doing it tough with, what was it? only 87% of those eligible to vote casting a valid vote, a real worry.
-Large sums of money coupled with fear and smear campaigns work
-A LOTO can be there for a long time, be known and hold a party together, but this does not mean he/she will become PM.
-Opinion polls of any kind should be treated with suspicion until such time as they do better than being with 5% of the actual outcome. As Oz election results for TPP have commonly fallen between 52-48 for years, this should not be beyond fixing.
Barney in Makassar says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 9:02 am
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 8:04 am
There are lots of people out there who are traditional Labor voters who are earning good money.”
… and therefore don’t need a tax cut.
—————————–
I’m playing devils advocate by making this comment
Why don’t need a pay cut?
For some reason some people on the left have this obsession with the need to tax, yet hardly ever address poor spending which is just as costly to the budget as the tax cuts are. Hell will permanently freeze before a government services ever says it has enough money and because politicians seem unable to stick to their level of government we now have substantial overlap across all three levels but some people on the left seem to think just more taxes will fix everything when often the problem is the policy not the budget.
Telling one group of people that they deserve something and others don’t, shows the ALP isn’t learning from May’s election result.
Mavis Davis says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 9:41 am
“Although it’s a convention for the prime minister and the LOTO to attend church on the morning when parliament is formally opened, it’s not a good optic.”
Chris Bowen:
“I have noticed as I have been around during the election campaign and even in the days since … how often it has been raised with me that people of faith no longer feel that progressive politics cares about them,”
Barney
I’m looking at payslips right now. Working overtime on Saturday in the trades. More than half goes to the ATO.
Tricot @ #85 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 9:55 am
In a nutshell.
Good post.
Bushfire Bill says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 9:52 am
“Can you detail the services that are NOT being cut?”
Yes, funding is increasing over the forward estimates for just about everything that I am aware of – health, social services, education – unless the Budget Papers are lying.
Tricot, just wondering…given the diabolic clusterfck that has been the government for the past six years what exactly does it take for a government to lose?
zoomster says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 9:13 am
C@
Right. So we stop funding education, health, infrastructure because people don’t want to pay tax.
——————————-
Infrastructure has pretty much always been funded on debt instead of tax revenue. People have always hated paying taxes and If only education and health was all governments used their budgets for but they don’t and everyone knows that. Many people’s objection to taxes steams from their disliking of what the government spends that money on and many people know there is waste in government.
It is obscene and immoral to run prisons for profit. The profiteers running them have an incentive to increase recidivism because that increases their profits. Not to mention their right to fund law n order political parties that will increase imprisonment rates to increase profits.
And giving capitalists the legal right to control and punish citizens is wrong, wrong and wrong.
One day the Liberals will sell the armed forces to Serco. It will be like renaissance Italy (without the artistry, of course) mercenary armies doing deals to start wars for profit.
a r @ #67 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 9:32 am
You can take that to the bank! The Coalition could all sit back in a hammock the whole election campaign and have their trucks running around every electorate smearing Labor about this till election day. Too easy for them.
Labor must be about winning the next election. Simple. As. That.
Bucephalus @ #80 Tuesday, July 2nd, 2019 – 9:50 am
And I’m picking up that you’re unable to link to the section of the Anti-discrimination laws that has to do with impinging upon private activities on AustLII, probably because it doesn’t exist.
That would certainly be a better way of proving me wrong than making semi-oblique assertions that I don’t know what I’m talking about. 🙂
Victoria says:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 10:01 am
With the highest tax being 45% if you are earning more than $180k, I do not see how that is possible.
You are missing something or not telling the whole story.
Also, if the overtime is irregular and it pushes you into a higher tax bracket for that month you will get most of, if not all of, that additional tax paid back in your tax return.
Bucephalus:
[Chris Bowen:
“I have noticed as I have been around during the election campaign and even in the days since … how often it has been raised with me that people of faith no longer feel that progressive politics cares about them,”]
As it’s panned out, Bowen often gets it wrong. Labor’s quite close to mainstream religion, particulary Catholicism. Where Labor should draw a line, however, is those whose platform is to proselytize – eg, pentacostals, the majority of whom, it’s postulated, vote Tory; for they (Tories) are most inclined to line their pockets thus furthering their ability to convert the sinful, as chronicled by the likes of Folau.
Yes, yes, I know, Israel Folau and his views and values. Again. However, this column by Peter van Onselen is actually very good on that subject and the broader debate:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/were-a-robust-democracy-so-suck-it-up-zealots/news-story/b636660139b125dbac80ffb1ee64958c
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/franking-credit-campaign-forced-to-destroy-information-20190701-p5230b.html
So, you CAN’T detail them after all?
You just make a general statement that “everything” is getting more funding, but no detail. I note you don’t claim any increase in real terms. Just vague statements that it’s all going up.
How will this magic pudding largesse be paid for if the government receives LESS in tax receipts per capita, and hundreds of billions less in total?