Essential Research leadership polling

A belated account of the first set of post-election leadership ratings, recording a victory bounce for Scott Morrison and a tentative debut for Anthony Albanese.

Contrary to expectations it might put its head above the parapet with today’s resumption of parliament, there is still no sign of Newspoll – or indeed any other polling series, at least so far as voting intention is concerned. Essential Research, however, is maintaining its regular polling schedule, but so far it’s been attitudinal polling only. The latest set of results was published in The Guardian on Friday, and it encompasses Essential’s leadership ratings series, which I relate here on a better-late-than-never basis. Featured are the first published ratings for Anthony Albanese, of 35% approval and 25% disapproval, compared with 38% and 44% in the pollster’s final pre-election reading for Bill Shorten.

To put this into some sort of perspective, the following table (click on image to enlarge) provides comparison with Newspoll’s debut results for opposition leaders over the past three decades. The only thing it would seem safe to conclude from this is that Albanese’s numbers aren’t terribly extraordinary one way or the other.

Scott Morrison’s post-election bounce lifts him five points on approval to 48%, with disapproval down three to 36%, and he leads Albanese 43-25 on preferred prime minister, compared with 39-32 for Shorten’s late result. Also featured are questions on tax cuts (with broadly negative responses to the government policy, albeit that some of the question framing is a little slanted for mine), trust in various media outlets (results near-identical to those from last October, in spite of everything), and various indigenous issues (including a finding that 57% would vote yes in a constitutional recognition referendum, compared with 34% for no). The poll was conducted June 19 to June 23 from an online sample of 1079.

Elsewhere in poll-dom:

• Australian Market and Social Research Organisations has established an advisory board and panel for its inquiry into the pollster failure, encompassing an impressive roll call of academics, journalists and statisticians. Ipsos would appear to be the only major Australian polling concern that’s actually a member of AMSRO, but the organisation has “invited a publisher representative from each of Nine Entertainment (Sydney Morning Herald/The Age) and NewsCorp to join the advisory board”.

• A number of efforts have now been made to reverse-engineer a polling trend measure for the last term, using the actual results from 2016 and 2019 as anchoring points. The effort of Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo at the University of Sydney was noted here last week. Mark the Ballot offers three models – one anchored to the 2016 result, which lands low for the Coalition in 2019, but still higher than what the polls were saying); one anchored to the 2019 result, designed to land on the mark for 2019, but resulting in a high reading for the Coalition in 2016; and, most instructively, one anchored to both, which is designed to land on the mark at both elections. Kevin Bonham offers various approaches that involve polling going off the rails immediately or gradually after the leadership change, during the election campaign, or combinations thereof.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,688 comments on “Essential Research leadership polling”

  1. What a load of stupid theatre this crap is. And as long as people on ‘left’ keep banging on about Labor and what symbolic gestures it should make, the more they are doing the dirty work of Morrison and Frydenberg.

    The fact is these changes are now going through. In three or six years time Labor will either not be in a position to do anything about them or they can take the money going to the higher income earners and redistribute them to lower income earners (i.e., most voters). If they are going to get more in their pay packets straight away they will not give a fuck about their future aspirations. Of course, if Labor can’t sell it (and at the moment it seems incapable of selling iced water at the equator), then we all lose again.

  2. ‘lizzie says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:25 pm

    Boerwar

    I’m on the side of the VNPA in this. Labor have fiddled about and not bitten the bullet on preserving the old growth forests. The RFAs are a disaster, first created by that great conservationist, Howard.’

    The RFAs were initiated by the Keating Government in response to the incessant forest wars that everyone, including the environment, was losing.
    It is worth recalling that groups such as the Wilderness Society wanted a complete, permanent and total ban on all native forestry operations. No ifs. No buts.
    State governments were generally more in favour of open slather timber operations.
    One consequence was that Australian timber was facing increasing trouble gaining export traction because it did not meet international standards.
    The final trigger was PM Keating inside the House while it was being ringed by a large mass of noisy tooting timber trucks.
    The RFAs were largely negotiated under Howard under assorted luminaries including at one stage Minister for Forests Tuckey.
    Peace was to be purchased by as series of negotiated trade offs that protected large swathes of native forests in return for regional investments to build rural economies.
    I would argue that the RFAs were not a total disaster. Hundreds of thousands of hectares around Australia went into the national reserve system.
    There were some systemic improvements in forestry practices.
    Most species gained some additional protection.
    It is also probable that species that depend on extremely high value and scarce timber resource areas such a old growth E regnans, have not fared well and that Leadbeater’s Possum will probably go extinct as a consequence.
    Further to all of the above, climate change was discussed during the RFAs and was actually incorporated into some of the reserve design principles – in global terms it was well ahead of its time.
    But climate change is now moving so fast that most of the ecological inputs to the RFAs are being overtaken by events. For example, changes to fire regimes are going to have massive impacts on the distribution of plant types, on hydrology and on every other bloody thing.

  3. The Greens are Lib-lite on the economy. They are indifferent to the difficulties faced by working people and seek only to exploit them.

  4. The RFAs were largely negotiated under Howard under assorted luminaries including at one stage Minister for Forests Tuckey.

    Humph.

  5. “Labor should demand deeper cuts in tax at the low end. They should demand more vigorous action to support the economy and employment.”

    Labor should propose further tax cuts for the low and middle end to commence forthwith as amendments to every money bill the government introduces into the lower house.

  6. ‘poroti says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:44 pm

    Boerwar

    But it was ‘worth it’ , just ask Medeleine….

    Lesley Stahl on U.S. sanctions against Iraq:
    We have heard that a half million children have died. I mean, that’s more children than died in Hiroshima. And, you know, is the price worth it?

    Secretary of State Madeleine Albright:
    I think this is a very hard choice, but the price–we think the price is worth it.

    —60 Minutes (5/12/96)’

    Who was the Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs and who was the Australian Prime Minister?
    Australia has massive blood on its hands here. It was a very active participant in the naval blockade.

  7. poroti says: Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:44 pm

    Boerwar

    But it was ‘worth it’ , just ask Medeleine….

    Lesley Stahl on U.S. sanctions against Iraq:
    We have heard that a half million children have died. I mean, that’s more children than died in Hiroshima. And, you know, is the price worth it?

    Secretary of State Madeleine Albright:
    I think this is a very hard choice, but the price–we think the price is worth it.

    —60 Minutes (5/12/96)

    ************************************************

    Go Read :

    Fiasco – The American Military Adventure In Iraq – Thomas E. Ricks

    Blood Money – Wasted Billions, Lost Lives and Corporate Greed in Iraq – T. Christian Miller

    ……. and then tell me it was all worth it

  8. Pegasus says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:48 pm
    Proposed repeal of the Medevac legislation

    That would be the Act that Di Natale was opposed to passing. That would be the Act that alleviated some of the exemplary cruelty dealt to our political prisoners. That would be the class of political hostages created when the Greens colluded with Abbott to defeat Labor’s regional solution to the arrival of asylum seekers by maritime means.

    That would be legislation the Greens wish had never been passed in the first place. Will they support its repeal? Will they find new ways to politically exploit our population of political prisoners?

  9. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:53 pm
    “Labor should demand deeper cuts in tax at the low end. They should demand more vigorous action to support the economy and employment.”

    Labor should propose further tax cuts for the low and middle end to commence forthwith as amendments to every money bill the government introduces into the lower house.

    Absolutely.

  10. I look at the tax cuts differently than some of my fellow bludgers do but they indirectly build a defense against the argument against rising newstart and DSP because if rising those payments is unaffordable then so are the tax cuts and if the tax cuts are good for the economy then so is rising newstart and DSP.

    On that Gerry Harvey quote, I think that was an old quote from years ago.


  11. TPOF says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:49 pm

    What a load of stupid theatre this crap is. And as long as people on ‘left’ keep banging on about Labor and what symbolic gestures it should make, the more they are doing the dirty work of Morrison and Frydenberg.

    Greens fort hard for a Liberal government and have already started fighting for a Liberal win at the next election. One must assume they fully support Liberal policies.

  12. briefly @ #1409 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 4:57 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:53 pm
    “Labor should demand deeper cuts in tax at the low end. They should demand more vigorous action to support the economy and employment.”

    Labor should propose further tax cuts for the low and middle end to commence forthwith as amendments to every money bill the government introduces into the lower house.

    Absolutely.

    But they won’t.
    It’s the Labor way.
    Labor should have won the election 6 weeks ago.

  13. Email from Market Forces re financing of the Carmichael mine:

    “Last November Adani said it would “self-finance” the climate-wrecking Carmichael coal mine and rail project, having failed to convince any financial institutions to back its mega mine.

    But what if Adani could get big investors to finance the Carmichael mine via another part of the company’s business?

    This week Adani issued bonds for one part of its business, Adani Ports and SEZ. Recently uncovered evidence* has shown how Adani routinely moves money between various companies within the corporate group. Without strict restrictions, there’s no reason why a loan to Adani’s ports business couldn’t wind up financing the Carmichael coal mine.
    :::
    An investigation in the Indian media* found that the Adani group of companies has regularly funded its expansion through inter-company investments and loans. Money raised in one part of the group can be used to fund expansion plans elsewhere.
    :::
    This means that the banks which have taken part in Adani Ports’ most recent bond issue could easily find their money shifted across to Adani Mining, without strict conditions.”

  14. Also, fiat currency; all money is only worth whatever the public currency issuer says it is.

    The currency is worth what you have to do to obtain it. The currency issuer determines this through the tax obligations that it imposes on the non-government sector. If you are in the non-government sector you have to sell something (for most people, their labour power) to earn the currency that you need to settle your tax obligation to the government. The currency is valuable because the currency issuer promises to accept its own currency back as payment of taxes. This is the most important promise that the federal government makes to us.

  15. TPOF @ #1401 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 4:49 pm

    What a load of stupid theatre this crap is. And as long as people on ‘left’ keep banging on about Labor and what symbolic gestures it should make, the more they are doing the dirty work of Morrison and Frydenberg.

    The fact is these changes are now going through. In three or six years time Labor will either not be in a position to do anything about them or they can take the money going to the higher income earners and redistribute them to lower income earners (i.e., most voters). If they are going to get more in their pay packets straight away they will not give a fuck about their future aspirations. Of course, if Labor can’t sell it (and at the moment it seems incapable of selling iced water at the equator), then we all lose again.

    The liberal party scare campaign for 2022 writes itself.
    Labor will take your tax cuts away.

  16. Mex….the Liberals will try to abolish NewStart.

    This form of income protection was created by Curtin/Chifley. They fought to amend the Constitution so this could be implemented by the Commonwealth. At first, Social Security was secured as social insurance, by a levy on wages/incomes. Menzies abolished Social Insurance and absorbed the funds into Consolidated Revenue.

    We should revisit the Social Insurance model. It was very effective. It represented the principle that working people look after each other by co-operating; by being prudent together.

    The Liberals have turned NewStart into a handout. It is money-for-shame. I know many people who have faced real hardship rather than apply for NewStart. This is completely contrary to the social contract that is supposed to exist between us and which under-writes our participation in an unfair and capricious labour market.

  17. briefly @ #1393 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 4:42 pm

    lizzie says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 4:37 pm
    Interesting stat!

    Peter Whish-Wilson@SenatorSurfer
    5h5 hours ago

    Jacqui Lambie think this tax cuts package that benefit the wealthy are good for #Tasmania? Did she realise that in the PM’s electorate alone, there are more income earners over $180,000 getting a leg up than in the entire state of Tassie? She’s been conned.

    Lambie is a Lib. She always has been. She subscribes to the Lib agenda on taxes. She has played this well. She will be remembered as the Senator for tax cuts as well as the voice of Tasmania. She has not been conned. Rather, the Green has conned himself.

    You must be good at playing Twister Briefo…..

  18. Pegasus @ #1391 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 4:39 pm

    Anthony Albanese says Labor is saying “very clearly” that at this stage, it is against stage three, but the party will make a final decision on its position on that 2024 stage closer to the next election (in three years time).

    So Labor is saying it will pass this whole package – even the bits it doesn’t like – but reserves the right to possibly repeal the last stage.

    Oh dear, and the Tories have 2922 in the bag.
    Well thought through Albo.

  19. mundo @ #1419 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 5:08 pm

    Pegasus @ #1391 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 4:39 pm

    Anthony Albanese says Labor is saying “very clearly” that at this stage, it is against stage three, but the party will make a final decision on its position on that 2024 stage closer to the next election (in three years time).

    So Labor is saying it will pass this whole package – even the bits it doesn’t like – but reserves the right to possibly repeal the last stage.

    Oh dear, and the Tories have 2922 in the bag.
    Well thought through Albo.

    As well as 2022

  20. Adani might be able to finance the proposed mine. If they do, they should give due credit to Bob Brown and name the site after the venerated former Senator, who did so much to ensure it would be built.

  21. As Labor was also proposing tax cuts – that is, in principle – any opposition to the principle was on a hiding to nothing. On top of this, the numbers/sentiment were not there for Labor this time around. At the end of the day extra in the pockets (pathetic as the amounts tend to be for the bottom end) by way of tax cuts and not taking “benefits” away are so much part of the electorate’s DNA that principle does not come into it. Abbott was able to get rid of the “Carbon Tax” but even the conservatives had to leave the subsidy for the oldies in place……………again, pathetic as the amount may be. No party will go broke pandering to the self-interest of the electorate. In this respect the LNP have it in spades.

  22. “It is not complicated.

    The cuts in personal income tax lay the base for the increase in GST.”

    Good. Very Good. Bring that on, ScoMo! You know you want to …

  23. ‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 5:11 pm

    “It is not complicated.

    The cuts in personal income tax lay the base for the increase in GST.”

    Good. Very Good. Bring that on, ScoMo! You know you want to …’

    I don’t think so. One of the little understood paths to a Fed Budget surplus has been massive cost shifting by the Feds to the States.
    The States will crawl on their hands and knees for an increase in the GST.
    Morrison might reluctantly agree…

  24. “The Bob Brown Mine and the Di Natale Railroad.”
    In future years Labor should name every dam, every mine, every outback railway built under the LNP’s watch after a lion of the Greens movement and a permanent memorial of these self defeating antics.

  25. mundo….Lambie is a Lib. She sought Lib -deselection, lost and ran as an Independent. She subscribes to the same world view as the Blues. She is a Tory….fairly close to ON in many ways. She’s a RW protest voice for Northern Tasmania….

    The Libs have the numbers in the Senate. Get used to it.

  26. “I don’t think so. One of the little understood paths to a Fed Budget surplus has been massive cost shifting by the Feds to the States.
    The States will crawl on their hands and knees for an increase in the GST.
    Morrison might reluctantly agree…”

    Excellent. Oh, wish fulfilment. The mother of all scare campaigns was thus born. Bye Bye ScoMo. Bye Bye Gladys.

  27. Peeps should be 100% clear.
    Labor is in no position to ‘do’ anything now.
    That is the price for not having political power.
    The Greens are used to this, having been in this situation for the past 27 years. So, they simply shrug their shoulders when asked what they are actually doing in any substantive sense.
    Because the answer for 27 years has been the same: ‘nothing’.
    At the same time the Greens constantly demand that Labor ‘does’ this or that.
    It can’t.
    The tax cuts are Coalition and xbench tax cuts.
    End of story.

  28. #breaking Australia will expand and extend its air support to the US-led coalition against ISIS in Iraq and Syria until late next year, Defence Minister @lindareynoldswa has just announced— Andrew Greene (@AndrewBGreene) July 4, 2019

    What? Has no one told Australia that Trump triumphantly declared ISIS completely defeated like way back in 2018?

  29. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1427 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 5:13 pm

    “The Bob Brown Mine and the Di Natale Railroad.”
    In future years Labor should name every dam, every mine, every outback railway built under the LNP’s watch after a lion of the Greens movement and a permanent memorial of these self defeating antics.

    …and yet it was Labor who voted for Adani in the senate today.

    Seriously, things won’t improve if boosters such as yourselves don’t accept Labors mistakes.

  30. CNN has this lovely graphic up:


    Caption: “Too hot for humans”

    When global warming starts killing people, it’ll be the poor who bear the brunt of it. The same poor the RWNJ’s insist would be so deeply hurt if we stopped selling them more coal to burn.

  31. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1429 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 5:15 pm

    “I don’t think so. One of the little understood paths to a Fed Budget surplus has been massive cost shifting by the Feds to the States.
    The States will crawl on their hands and knees for an increase in the GST.
    Morrison might reluctantly agree…”

    Excellent. Oh, wish fulfilment. The mother of all scare campaigns was thus born. Bye Bye ScoMo. Bye Bye Gladys.

    I’m with Boerwar on this.

    The GST is next on the agenda.

  32. Boerwar @ #1430 Thursday, July 4th, 2019 – 5:16 pm

    Peeps should be 100% clear.
    Labor is in no position to ‘do’ anything now.
    That is the price for not having political power.
    The Greens are used to this, having been in this situation for the past 27 years. So, they simply shrug their shoulders when asked what they are actually doing in any substantive sense.
    Because the answer for 27 years has been the same: ‘nothing’.
    At the same time the Greens constantly demand that Labor ‘does’ this or that.
    It can’t.
    The tax cuts are Coalition and xbench tax cuts.
    End of story.

    Labor voted FOR the Govts tax cuts.

    Didn’t abstain…. or vote against …. VOTED FOR Scomo’s tax cuts.

    Another Lib-Lab unity ticket to add to the long list.

  33. The one clear and consistent from the Greens comes down to this:
    Having never experienced it, they simply do not understand political power.
    The genuinely believe that sound and light is a reasonable substitute.

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