Mopping up operations

Late counting adds some extra grunt to the backlash against the Liberals in wealthy city seats, slightly reducing the size of their expected winning margin on the national two-party vote.

The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.

Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.

We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.

Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.

Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,117 comments on “Mopping up operations”

  1. Mexicanbeemer
    says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 3:02 pm
    Nath
    Politics breeds strange bed fellows.
    ______________________
    The SDA do donate generously to the ALP and ACTU. It’s basically them paying protection money so that they are free to operate as they have. Money is not the main gain for them, it’s getting catholics in parliaments. Or, the right kind of Catholics I should add.

  2. nath with his own patented anti union brand of bs again.

    Know this, the SDA are nothing like he describes them to be, and no matter how many times it is corrected with evidence to the contrary of what he says, he still continues to say it in the best tradition of a 21st century disinformation campaigner.

    ‘Simplistic lines for simple minds’ is his motto.

  3. Not really seeing any pluses for Labor in there. At best maybe they can use this to help transition from being the party of unions to the party of everyday Australians, as the former group doesn’t include nearly enough people to win an election anymore anyways.

    That IS the plus, a r. Why should the ALP die in a ditch defending a union that is quite prepared to ditch it in an election campaign, twice now, and hand a win to the Coalition? Let the Coalition prance around and preen themselves deregistering the CFFMEU. As long as other unions get to pick up the former members of the CFFMEU, or, as I said before, maybe the deregistered union could simply deamalgamate and go back to its constituent unions.

    Mining workers, forestry workers, maritime workers and construction workers would all still have a union to represent them and Labor would have a monkey off its back.

  4. Cat,

    If you think there is any comparison between the CFMMEU which has been bashed and fined for protecting its members principally from draconian laws in the construction sector and the criminal and corrupt activities of the painters and dockers then I will let you roll with that.

  5. Labor voters weren’t the only people who hoped for a change of govt, but to those on Manus it was far more serious.

    ‏@Shamindan1
    29m29 minutes ago

    On #Manus there are nearly 70 self harming & suicide attempts reported since last election. After 6years our mental health condition is deteriorating day after day. This systematic torture must come to an end. #auspol #UNHCR

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/refugee-sets-self-on-fire-at-manus-island-amid-mental-health-crisis-20190612-p51wuk.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

  6. Can people please stfu with the ‘Canberra bubble’ reference? That, as far as I remember is a meme started by one of the sleazy Ministers in the Morrison gov’t, if not Morrison himself.

    It is meaningless sycophantic twist of the Washington ‘Beltway’ reference.

    We do not need to concern ourselves, because it is in the Bubble. Labor needs to get out of the bubble or leave the criticisms in the bubble.

    I was ready to kick the TV by the end of the election campaign listening to that sh!t.

    As for repeating Lib memes, let’s just not.

  7. Puffy
    “I was ready to kick the TV by the end of the election campaign listening to that sh!t. ”

    So was I. This ‘bubble’ schtick was a way for Morrison to fob off questions he didn’t like.

  8. I’m nervous about talk here of Labor and Albo disassociating themselves from the CFMEU.

    I don’t want the ALP to be New Labourified.

  9. Eric Abetz on the SDA:

    “role model of trade union officialdom…. gives trade unionism a good name.”

    C@tmomma and Abetz on a joint ticket of approval for a faux union that did a dodgy deal with employers to pay its members below award wages for decades.

  10. nath @ #166 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 4:16 pm

    Eric Abetz on the SDA:

    “role model of trade union officialdom…. gives trade unionism a good name.”

    C@tmomma and Abetz on a joint ticket of approval for a faux union that did a dodgy deal with employers to pay its members below award wages for decades.

    You are a trite, inane and obsessive little thing, aren’t you nath?

    And wrong.

  11. The CFFMEU are about the only union with a large private sector membership left that has any real connection with it’s membership, and one of the few links labor still has with the non tertiary educated world, which is why the tories have been trying so hard for so long to kill it off.

    The CFFMEU are an odd fit for the modern gentrified Labor Party,but Labor do need their money. Maybe the CFFMEU should break ties with the Labor Party, they are not going to be in power federally any time soon and they are hostile to many of the industries their members work in so there is little Labor can do for them anyway.

  12. Greg Sheridan, another SDA operative who went into journalism to further the crusade with Murdoch’s support:

    While I was at the SDA, I kept freelancing for the Bulletin, under the pen-name Lance Millard, a name that the Bulletin made up for me. I also freelanced for the Australian, under the name Paul Mann … The SDA didn’t mind what I did in my spare time but also found my media contacts useful.

  13. CFMMEU members would be wise sniff the wind and tidy up the parts of their union that are acting detrimentally to the members interests.

  14. nath

    I don’t particularly like Greg Sheridan, but I’m having a hard time working out what’s objectionable about the activities you describe.

  15. By Katherine Murphy and Paul Karp in The Guardian:


    …With parliament set to resume in July, Di Natale said the Greens’ main priority was “tackling the existential threat of dangerous climate change and ensuring that no one is left behind as we undertake the transformation of our economy away from dirty, polluting fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas to a clean, green, jobs-rich economy powered by renewable energy” – although it is unclear how that can be advanced given Scott Morrison has said the Coalition will implement the policy it took to the election.
    …’

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/12/greens-flag-change-to-give-party-members-a-say-in-choosing-federal-leader

  16. Lizzie and Dooley

    I am with you both. There appears to be very little evidence of what Setka actually said.

    Nevertheless the MSM including the ABC have arced up alleging a specific attack on Ms Batty.

    The ABC just now restated this explanation of what Setka said: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-10/rosie-batty-slams-john-setka-domestic-violence-comments/11195146

    This refers to Setka saying that the Batty advocacy is eroding men’s rights. Christy Cain of the Maritime Union who was sitting 3 away from Setka supports that this is what he said. And that he said absolutely nothing about Ms Batty herself.

    This may be a huge hyperbowl beat up by way of KillSetka.

    C@t joined in this hyperbowl and inaccuracy by answering Doyley in terms of comparing the demise of Painters and Dockers with the Setka matter, hoping it will lead to the demise of the CFMEEU.

    If the above is correct, what is going on about Setka parallels discussions here a while back, when the sisterhood vigorously argued “Men should do …..”, and “Men should do that….”, and “Men are responsible for ….” in the context of discussions about the murder of a young woman, and Family Violence generally.

    When that occurred other posters responded a la Setka, ie the correct view should be “Some men should…..” and “Some men are responsible for ….” etc.

    Bagging “all men” is hardly a way to get all non offender men to work to end violence. But I don’t wish to repeat those arguments here …… they were well argued months ago in a recriminations way .

  17. doyley,
    No, the CFFMEU aren’t in the same league for criminality as the Painters and Dockers were and I never said they were. What I did say was that the CFFMEU is a problem for Labor now in their own way and in a similarly meta way that the Painters and Dockers were for Labor back in the 1970s.

    Though I will add that dealing Cocaine from a union car isn’t exactly tiddlywinks and not the best for workplace safety I would add.

  18. ‘Bagging “all men” is hardly a way to get all non offender men to work to end violence..’

    Wow. Are ‘some men’ such princesses that criticising ‘men’ for violent actions means they’ll sulk and do nothing?

    I have far more respect for ‘all men’ than to think that.

  19. I wonder if the ALP are suffering buyers remorse with Swan as President instead of Butler.

    Butler could see the writing on the wall re union control of the party. Again, they are the masters of the self-wedge.

  20. Psyclaw

    Mr Cain said that Setka was talking about his own problems, nothing else. Cain said almost as a throwaway line that maybe Albanese should resign, not Setka, and Probyn pounced: are you asking Albanese to resign? Typical media provoking a fight.

  21. So you be Brian Boyd?

    nath says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 4:23 pm

    Greg Sheridan, another SDA operative who went into journalism to further the crusade with Murdoch’s support:

    While I was at the SDA, I kept freelancing for the Bulletin, under the pen-name Lance Millard, a name that the Bulletin made up for me. I also freelanced for the Australian, under the name Paul Mann … The SDA didn’t mind what I did in my spare time but also found my media contacts useful.

  22. zoomster
    says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 4:30 pm
    nath
    I don’t particularly like Greg Sheridan, but I’m having a hard time working out what’s objectionable about the activities you describe.
    _______________________
    I’m just demonstrating the multitude of ways in which SDA operatives have attempted to influence politics and journalism, ie. power over the past decades

  23. nath @ #181 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 4:40 pm

    zoomster
    says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 4:30 pm
    nath
    I don’t particularly like Greg Sheridan, but I’m having a hard time working out what’s objectionable about the activities you describe.
    _______________________
    I’m just demonstrating the multitude of ways in which SDA operatives have attempted to influence politics and journalism, ie. power over the past decades

    Like they aren’t on their Pat Malone in that. Interesting how you never devote ANY energy to denouncing the IPA for similar ‘crimes’. But then that may be biting the hand that feeds, eh?

  24. zoomster
    says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 4:42 pm
    nath
    OMG, someone left a union to work for someone else!!
    You must have a very nice set of tinfoil hats at your place.
    _______________________
    He left the union but pushed its objectives in the only national paper. Worthy of consideration I would of thought. I’m not planning on charging anyone.

  25. This may be a huge hyperbowl beat up by way of KillSetka.

    psyclaw,
    Good to see you standing shoulder to shoulder with a man who has admitted criminally harassing a woman. You go girl!

  26. The IPA, for all its faults, don’t exploit teenage supermarket workers to get the likes of Tony Burke, Don Farrell and Raff Ciccone elected.

  27. lizzie @ #179 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 4:36 pm

    Psyclaw

    Mr Cain said that Setka was talking about his own problems, nothing else. Cain said almost as a throwaway line that maybe Albanese should resign, not Setka, and Probyn pounced: are you asking Albanese to resign? Typical media provoking a fight.

    lizzie,
    Isn’t that the point? John Setka was talking about himself and he denounced the advances that had been made by people like Rosie Batty as he thought that it would make it harder for him to prevail in his court case. Well, boo hoo for him. Not. He shouldn’t treat women the way that he has admitted that he has. Then he wouldn’t be in the situation that he finds himself in. Which is before the courts. Having plead guilty.

  28. nath

    Alternatively, he worked for the union because he already had a certain set of interests and values and then pursued the same interests and values in another sphere, which is something people do.

  29. nath @ #187 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 4:46 pm

    The IPA, for all its faults, don’t exploit teenage supermarket workers to get the likes of Tony Burke, Don Farrell and Raff Ciccone elected.

    More lies from the lying loudmouth.

    Give us your expert opinion about the conditions under which people work for Labour Hire companies, nath!

    What’s that? *crickets*

  30. Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 4:49 pm
    nath
    Alternatively, he worked for the union because he already had a certain set of interests and values and then pursued the same interests and values in another sphere, which is something people do.
    ____________________________
    Yes and those interests and values are of the Catholic conservative right wing, which I oppose. It is these people who have, from the ALP side, held back progressivism in Australia for decades across a multitude of issues.

  31. C@tmomma
    says:
    Give us your expert opinion about the conditions under which people work for Labour Hire companies, nath!
    __________________________
    So if I don’t like the SDA I’m therefore a supporter of Labour Hire companies? Tell that to little Billy Shorten, who did quite a few deals with companies to replace their union workforce with Labour Hire workers in exchange for some nice cash donations to the AWU.

  32. Maybe so, nath, but if your preferred solution is that no one from the Catholic right wing gets to work for anyone, it seems a little extreme.

    I don’t like them, but I’m not denying them the right to work.

  33. Albo made it clear in the 730 interview that the construction sector needed a union so I doubt he is suggesting the ALP walks away from supporting its existence.

  34. About bloody time:

    The Greens have flagged letting party members have a say in the appointment of the federal parliamentary leader, as Richard Di Natale has been re-endorsed as party leader after the traditional post-election spill of positions.

    A meeting of the Greens party room on Wednesday resolved Di Natale would remain as leader, with Adam Bandt and Larissa Waters remaining in the deputy positions, assuming Waters takes the last Queensland Senate spot. Rachel Siewert is the whip and Janet Rice is the party room chair.

    Di Natale has also pointed to a new process for the selection of the party leader, which is likely to involve a split vote between the federal party room and grassroots party members, like the system Labor has federally.

    It will be interesting to see if di Natale would hold on to the leadership if the rank and file were allowed to vote for party leader.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/12/greens-flag-change-to-give-party-members-a-say-in-choosing-federal-leader

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