Mopping up operations

Late counting adds some extra grunt to the backlash against the Liberals in wealthy city seats, slightly reducing the size of their expected winning margin on the national two-party vote.

The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.

Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.

We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.

Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.

Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,119 comments on “Mopping up operations”

  1. From the previous thread:

    Hi Sprocket from Budapest,

    Hola Bludgers from Istanbul, a city of 15 million people. They are having a re-run of the mayoral election, after Erdogan got the first attempt cancelled after his candidate lost.

    So who is his candidate? It is Binali Yildrim. He and Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party have taken a leaf out of Clive Palmer’s playbook. Every single billboard and corflute-able area is plastered with his image – saturation carpet bombing of every available sightline. Will it work? I think so.

    I wish I could fit Istanbul into my trip, but alas not.

    I am also really pissed off that the Orient express only finished its great train journey in 2002. I reckon a hop on / hop off ticket would have got me through my work travels in great style. Somehow Ryan Air just does not seem to have the same grandeur, but it does get the job done

    It is sobering traveling overseas at the moment. Every problem / crisis facing Australian politics and society is also facing every other country in the world.

    We should keep fighting for democracy and social justice, but we are fighting not just against trends in Australia, but trends right around the world.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Stephen Bartholomeusz explains the effects that the US Fed and the value of the Aussie dollar are having on the RBA’s deliberations.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-fed-and-the-australian-dollar-are-forcing-the-rba-s-hand-20190611-p51wh7.html
    The SMH editorial says that the new trend for patients to go online to meet medical bills raises some damning questions about how Australia funds its health system. It also says specialists must also think of patients’ financial health.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/specialists-must-also-think-of-patients-financial-health-20190611-p51wia.html
    Eryk Bagshaw analyses what is quite a confronting report on tariffs and subsidies from the Productivity Commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/global-trade-is-under-greatest-threat-since-wwii-productivity-commission-says-20190611-p51wi9.html
    David Crowe reports that In private briefings, Philip Lowe has told Senate crossbenchers that the RBA would have little room to move if Parliament failed to pass its tax cuts in July.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/they-re-a-little-bit-concerned-rba-governor-urges-senate-crossbench-to-pass-tax-cuts-20190611-p51wio.html
    Savers have battled deposit rates fractionally above inflation since 2016, and the RBA cut means depositors are now going backwards in real terms. But the RBA says their pain is for the greater good, writes Jonathan Shapiro.
    https://www.outline.com/TGdnPr
    Dutton has attacked the integrity of a key crossbench Senator over comments he made about press freedom in the wake of two Australian Federal Police raids on journalists. It’s about what one would expect from this bloke!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-savages-key-senate-crossbencher-in-brawl-over-press-freedom-remarks-20190611-p51wjs.html
    And David Crowe tells us about Barnaby Joyce’s helpful contribution to the issue of the AFP raids.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-load-of-rubbish-joyce-backs-police-against-media-in-crackdown-on-leaks-20190611-p51wll.html
    According to Paul Karp Dutton has said it was “inappropriate” for his departmental secretary to contact a senator who was critical of the government’s handling of press freedom. The remarks come shortly after prime minister Scott Morrison weighed in on the matter, calling it “concerning” Mike Pezzullo allegedly attempted to silence Centre Alliance senator Rex Patrick.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/11/senator-accuses-home-affairs-boss-mike-pezzullo-of-intimidation-after-afp-media-raids
    Michelle Grattan reflects on the matter.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-a-soft-reprimand-from-one-hard-man-to-another-118619
    Our Prime Minister assures us that the AFP raids of last week had absolutely nothing to do with him. Well, of course not — he and his Government are never responsible for anything, writes Mung MacCallum.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mungo-maccallum-afp-raids-are-the-road-to-totalitarianism,12795
    Carmel Tebbutt, who is now the chief executive officer at NSW Mental Health Co-ordinating Council, tells us that NSW is pumping money into a system we know is at breaking point – hospital emergency departments’ handling of mental health presentations.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-keep-pumping-money-into-a-system-we-know-is-at-breaking-point-20190610-p51w8b.html
    Former 4 Corners journalist Andrew Fowler writes that the ABC raids represent a wake-up call to journalists who left Assange swinging.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/abc-raids-a-wake-up-call-to-journalists-who-left-assange-swinging-20190610-p51wbw.html
    Ben Schneiders declares that the labour movement has been complicit by its silence about a man who has announced he will plead guilty to harassing a woman.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-taken-far-too-long-to-take-action-on-setka-20190611-p51wlb.html
    Phil Coorey says that in one move on Tuesday, Anthony Albanese asserted his authority over the Labor Party and signalled a different culture to that under Bill Shorten.
    https://www.outline.com/yKJWXv
    But The Age reports that Setka won’t back down. This could get a bit ugly.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-cuts-setka-loose-says-comments-about-batty-are-disgraceful-20190611-p51wj7.html
    Lawyers and litigation funders are helping workers bypass unions and mount class actions to settle wage underpayment disputes with their employers, writes Anna Patty.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/they-sold-me-out-lawyers-compete-with-unions-for-business-to-settle-wage-disputes-20190528-p51rx7.html
    Did Labor not learn ANYTHING from the Dastyari experience?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-12/alp-invoice-reveals-expenses-payment-to-chris-minns/11191042
    In The Conversation two academics explain five ways the government can clean up the Murray-Darling Basin Plan.
    https://theconversation.com/5-ways-the-government-can-clean-up-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-116265
    Meanwhile Michael West bestows the “Australia’s Most Hopeless Regulator” award to the MDBA.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/unveiled-australias-most-hopeless-regulator/
    Richard Denniss writes that it’s cheap to tackle climate change – but that isn’t the reason to do it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/11/its-cheap-to-tackle-climate-change-but-that-isnt-the-reason-to-do-it
    Are right wing think tanks feeling the pinch?
    https://www.outline.com/rj8by7
    The Age reports that the former head of Infrastructure Australia says he regrets not standing up to state governments that pressured his agency to keep the business cases of multibillion-dollar transport projects secret.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/mega-project-secrecy-slammed-by-former-infrastructure-boss-20190611-p51wjm.html
    Andy Marks looks at the perilous financial position of some universities.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/precarious-position-nsw-universities-reliant-on-risky-income-stream-20190611-p51whd.html
    Australia could cut greenhouse gas emissions halfway to its Paris agreement target, and save $7.7bn a year in bills, by adopting existing global standards on energy efficiency.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/12/australia-could-cut-emissions-halfway-to-paris-target-under-global-energy-standards
    The number of mature age Australians carrying mortgage debt into retirement is soaring and the implications are huge.
    https://theconversation.com/more-people-are-retiring-with-high-mortgage-debts-the-implications-are-huge-115134
    Nick Miller writes Boris Johnson is the current favourite to become the new UK Prime Minister. He tellingly says that in a few weeks’ time a majority of 100,000 overwhelmingly old, white, affluent English southerners will pick the winner.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/boris-the-favourite-as-pistol-fires-on-ten-way-tory-leadership-race-20190611-p51wdm.html
    John McDuling examines the somewhat chequered path of AfterPay.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/buy-now-short-later-decision-for-afterpay-investors-20190611-p51wiy.html
    The families of 69 victims and 177 survivors of the Grenfell Tower disaster have launched legal action in the US against the manufacturers of the cladding and insulation used in the building’s refurbishment, which lawyers said could result in a payout worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jun/11/grenfell-families-file-us-lawsuit-over-cladding-and-insulation
    These family members clearly qualify for today’s nomination for “Arseholes of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/woman-accused-of-incest-in-fear-of-being-bashed-in-jail-20190611-p51wi0.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox takes aim at Setka and Latham,

    Mark David with Dutton’s new strategy on whistleblowers.

    Fiona Katauskas with a good one.

    From Matt Golding.





    A delightful triptych from Glen Le Lievre.



    John Shakespeare in defence of Charlie Teo.

    Sean Leahy trots out Can-Do Newman to help with the Queensland budget delivery.

    More from Leahy.

    Really classy stuff here from Zanetti I must say!

    Jon Kudelka and the Setka problem.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b8b6bbcfb7aad4e32c989642a6366252?width=1024

    From the US





  3. Dutton has attacked the integrity of a key crossbench Senator

    Cormann might find that his famous charm (sic) and negotiating skill might fail him with Senator Patrick. Cheers, scomo.

  4. Morning BK and bludgers

    Good array of reports this morning.

    As previously mentioned when Setka pleaded guilty to harassment etc., I was advised that the rank and file wanted him to resign.
    He had refused to do so, and was digging in.
    Hence all the pressure being put to bear by Labor reps now.

  5. Barnaby Joyce has argued the national interest was served by keeping government deliberations private and investigating leaks.

    Whistleblowers would be anathema to Barnaby. They might reveal all his private little arrangements over water.

    Mr Joyce said: “What a load of rubbish. The freedom to print is your right. The crime resides in the person who gave you the information.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-load-of-rubbish-joyce-backs-police-against-media-in-crackdown-on-leaks-20190611-p51wll.html

  6. Thanks BK that Cathy Wilcox cartoon is a beauty.

    Vic:

    Do you think there’s anyone who would run against Setka if a ballot were held?

  7. C@t

    Yes. There are a few willing to run against him.
    He and his posse, are going around the place attempting to wield his position.
    It can very easily get ugly, if he doesn’t do the right thing and exit stage left.
    If I hear more will let you know

  8. As per article linked by BK, The numbers of those close to retirement with huge mortgages is quite sobering.
    I guess many expect an inheritance is forthcoming too. But need to bear in mind, that assets are required as bond for aged care placement, and the asset value is eroded over time.

  9. Victoria @ #8 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 7:44 am

    C@t

    Yes. There are a few willing to run against him.
    He and his posse, are going around the place attempting to wield his position.
    It can very easily get ugly, if he doesn’t do the right thing and exit stage left.
    If I hear more will let you know

    Thank, Vic. 🙂

    Albanese is a man much practised in the dark arts of wielding his position too. You should see him on the floor of the State Conference!

  10. C@t

    Lol! And, If Albo can give Morrison and co a good going over, that would please me no end!
    Could do with some sunshine amongst all this bleakness

  11. Diogenese

    I’ll give it a shot! I’m stuck. It’s killing me and the intertubes aren’t helping me.
    How do I determine an exponential equation which passes through point A (-75,35) at slope -0.5 and point B (-65,10) at slope -2? It can be any exponential equation as long as it meets those 4 criteria. I tried using y=ae^bx + c and I could only meet 3 criteria.

    The key point is that you are imposing 4 conditions and your equation only has 3 parameters. The best you can do in that situation is to find an equation of best fit, i.e. one that doesn’t exactly meet your criteria but goes close.

    One equation with 4 parameters that you could try is y = d + ae^b(x-c).

    Good luck with the algebra 🙂

  12. The House took its strongest step yet in the standoff with President Trump over congressional oversight, voting Tuesday to seek court enforcement of subpoenas for Attorney General William P. Barr and former White House counsel Donald McGahn.

    On a party-line vote of 229-to-191, the House passed a resolution that would empower the House Judiciary Committee to go to court against Barr and McGahn over noncompliance with requests for documents and testimony.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/stepping-up-trump-clash-house-to-vote-to-enforce-barr-and-mcgahn-subpoenas/2019/06/11/a1343cea-8c4f-11e9-b6f4-033356502dce_story.html?utm_term=.352015e39c93

  13. Vic,
    I was just thinking who John Setka reminded me of and then it came to me…Marco Bolano, Kathy Jackson’s old enforcer from the HSU. Honestly, these men need to grow up!

    I also think that there’s no downside to Labor taking on the CFFMEU, except for financial maybe, as it was the damned CFFMEU that campaigned heavily against Labor in Queensland in the federal election. Labor owes them no favours at all and it would do Labor’s reputation the world of good to pull on a fight with that union, with the end result hopefully being that the CFFMEU pulls its head in and gets back to its knitting simply looking after its members’ interests.

  14. A long read, but this was of particular interest to me.

    As we have seen with the #Watergate scandal, Angus Taylor is himself very familiar with establishing companies registered in the Caymans, so he has some affinity on that score with Hintze.

    Records show Hintze has been connected through business relationships with the Taylor family for at least 12 years. The original introduction was partially facilitated by Hintze’s former business associate James Harker-Mortlock, when Hintze’s agricultural investment company MH Premium Farms began buying up farms, initially spending $12.5 million for a Breadalbane property in July 2007.

    MH Premium Farms now owns 40 properties in Australia including some that grow the water thirsty crop of cotton.

    This vast portfolio of farm properties has been accumulated and managed by Richard Taylor, of Growth Farms Australia. Richard and Angus Taylor jointly establish Growth Farms Australia in 1999. Angus Taylor remains a silent shareholder in the company via his personal company, Gufee Pty Ltd, whereas Richard sits on the board of MH Premium Farms and Growth Farms Australia. The return of the LNP government at the recent election saw the anti-wind power Angus Taylor retain the energy portfolio in the Morrison government.

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/watergate-the-billionaire-the-minister-and-the-accidental-diplomats/

  15. Diogenes,
    My point about the number of parameters stands but the equation I suggested won’t because the equation can be written with only 3 parameters by writing it as y = d + a’e^bx where a’ = ae^(-bc).

  16. Never Trump Republican Jennifer Rubin says a recent foreign policy speech by Mayor Pete has set a very high bar for the other candidates. I was interested to hear Bill Maher say yesterday in his interview with Chris Cuomo that he expects Biden will not win the nomination. I still think it’s too early to say anything definitively.

    His best passages came in his call for Congress to step up to the plate, no longer relying on the authorization for use of military force approved after 9/11, but to make decisions and exercise oversight; in an explanation of the connection between our values and our national interests; and in a clear description of how our conduct at home (functional government, support for a free press, a robust economy) gives us credibility and strength abroad.

    On nuclear nonproliferation, Buttigieg promised to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal (though under what conditions he didn’t say), advised he wouldn’t be “sending love letters with a brutal dictator,” and suggested something less than North Korea’s complete denuclearization — perhaps a step-by-step process — could be in order. (For now, he stressed that sanctions should remain in place.)

    Buttigieg sneered at Trump’s Russia policy, saying it is not a “real estate deal.” He promised diplomatic, economic and cyber responses to interference with our elections and gave full-throated support to NATO.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/06/11/pete-buttigieg-clears-commander-chief-bar/?utm_term=.1dbfbac68957

  17. Climate Council@climatecouncil

    A new report by prominent Australian scientists has found Adani is likely to have underestimated impacts of its groundwater plan. The mine may cause a nearby spring to stop flowing permanently, pushing the wetland to extinction.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scientists-warn-ancient-desert-springs-may-dry-up-under-adani-plan-20190608-p51vqn.html

    Possible cumulative impacts to the wetland from other proposed coal projects have also not been properly considered, the report added.

    Professor Werner said the research showed Adani’s water plan was “severely flawed” and risked the extinction of both the springs complex and the flora and fauna that depend on it.

    “If we allow Adani to drain billions of litres of water with this groundwater plan then we are effectively playing Russian roulette with the very existence of a million-year-old ecosystem,” he said.

    The source aquifer for the Doongmabulla Springs is not known, fuelling fears that the coal mine will damage the rare desert oasis.

    The report was presented to officials at the Department of Environment and Science on Wednesday. A department spokesman said it was awaiting advice from CSIRO on Adani’s groundwater plan before considering if any changes were required. The department’s decision is due on Thursday, June 13.

  18. C@t

    Yes he does have a resemblance to him.

    Without wishing to excuse Setka for his behaviour, his former partner has not behaved in a good fashion either. I have been told that she is a real piece of work and he was patient, until he wasn’t. Men have a habit of stuffing up royally in this area. It’s like their primitive brain goes into action.

  19. Eddy Jokovich@EddyJokovich
    9m9 minutes ago

    Who would have thought ABC would become a Liberal Party dirt unit? Over past fortnight, published 48 articles about Labor, mainly negative: 20 on LNP, mainly positive. Today’s “dirt” on NSW Labor MP Chris Minns is just another example. #auspol @abcnews

  20. Victoria @ #26 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 8:53 am

    C@t

    Yes he does have a resemblance to him.

    Without wishing to excuse Setka for his behaviour, his former partner has not behaved in a good fashion either. I have been told that she is a real piece of work and he was patient, until he wasn’t. Men have a habit of stuffing up royally in this area. It’s like their primitive brain goes into action.

    The old cave man reflex. 🙂

    Nevertheless, we expect our leaders to also be superhuman as regards their personal behaviour these days, so, even though the former partner may have been that way he should have forced her to counselling, not done what he did.

  21. ‘fess,
    I honestly don’t think Biden will be the Democratic nominee either and that a lot of his poll numbers are coming from a well of affection, as opposed to hard-headed calculation about who would be best to go up against Trump and hopefully win.

  22. I am hoping that the Libs and the AFP has caused enough of a media ruckus that they start scrutinising the govt in the way they always should have but have been held hostage by vested interests.

  23. The latest Federal Court action aims to test the legal basis of the government’s program amid claims that more than 500,000 former welfare recipients have been ordered to pay debts that could be incorrect, or not owed at all.

    A previous test case appears to have been thwarted by the DHS last month, when it suddenly wiped a $4000 debt it claimed was incurred by Melbourne nurse Madeleine Masterton, who received youth allowance payments while studying.

    Several social service advocates and legal experts have accused the Commonwealth department of circumventing a future trial because it has doubts about whether the robo-debt program can withstand legal scrutiny.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/legal-aid-launches-new-battle-against-robo-debt-20190611-p51wls.html

  24. I don’t understand this. Their commuity supports them. Is the govt so afraid of allowing a tiny crack in their cruelty? The inability to be flexible is a sign of weakness, not strength.

    Little Tharunicaa is two today – officially a toddler!

    Except she’s spent 16 mo of her tiny life in a detention centre, so she’s not toddling yet. She’s delayed on all her major milestones.

    @DavidColemanMP – why won’t you let this family go #hometoBilo?

  25. So after being dressed down by Morrison, Dutton shoots his mouth off again, “savaging” Patrick – insubordination writ large and a clear sign of Morrison’s lack of authority.

  26. From Lizzie’s link:

    ‘This vast portfolio of farm properties has been accumulated and managed by Richard Taylor, of Growth Farms Australia. Richard and Angus Taylor jointly establish Growth Farms Australia in 1999. Angus Taylor remains a silent shareholder in the company via his personal company, Gufee Pty Ltd, whereas Richard sits on the board of MH Premium Farms and Growth Farms Australia. ‘

    Is this case of yet another Federal minister benefiting directly (but invisibly) from drought and/or other federal rural and regional ‘aid’?
    How good would that be?

  27. ‘jenauthor says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 9:03 am

    I am hoping that the Libs and the AFP has caused enough of a media ruckus that they start scrutinising the govt in the way they always should have but have been held hostage by vested interests.’

    Um…. the AFP IS a vested interest. For the past six years, at least for the next three years and possibly the next ten years their masters are in the Coalition.

  28. lizzie

    ‘ Little Tharunicaa is two today – officially a toddler!

    Except she’s spent 16 mo of her tiny life in a detention centre, so she’s not toddling yet. She’s delayed on all her major milestones.’

    Except the one where she has had her ears pierced. Not a good thing, IMO.

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