Mopping up operations

Late counting adds some extra grunt to the backlash against the Liberals in wealthy city seats, slightly reducing the size of their expected winning margin on the national two-party vote.

The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.

Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.

We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.

Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.

Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,119 comments on “Mopping up operations”

  1. Albanese would have done his due diligence to get the direct evidence he needs on Setka.

    Setka offered an incomprehensible explanation as to what he says was said as recorded by the SMH which I cannot copy.

  2. Richard Willingham@rwillingham
    5m5 minutes ago

    Very interesting… ETU Victoria Secretary, Troy Gray, is demanding @AlboMP retract his comments about JohnSetka and end his attempts to have Setka expelled from the Labor Party. @abcmelbourne


  3. Diogenes says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 12:27 pm

    Thank you all but the index number has to be a function of x. The base being a function of x is pretty straightforward.

    “I tried using y=ae^bx + c and I could only meet 3 criteria.”

    Your given two gradients; differentiate the function and you get a function of a and b. Solve and plug a and b into original functions and you have two solutions for c and they differ. Not going to work.

    So the basic question is; what are you trying to do?
    Any functions?
    Simplest function?
    Least square for the data provided?

  4. sustainable future says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 10:44 am

    If federal Labor backs Adani after the LNP and Queensland inevitably do, I predict the national greens vote will spike, with PV falls for both the LNP and particularly Labor.

    Why does federal Labor even need to back Adani?

    Any Government decisions are at Ministerial level with guidelines being met and at company level as to it being viable.

    I’m unaware of any legislation being required, so there is no need for Parliamentary involvement.

    Remember Labor is not the Government!

  5. William, re your analysis of Senate preferences. Also remember its the Northern Territory and its exceedingly unlikely that preferences are ever counted, so even politically engaged people are unlikely to care that much about them.

  6. Urban Wronski@UrbanWronski
    7m7 minutes ago

    ABCC is militant. The building regulator served court documents on workers at their family homes, threatening to pursue hefty financial penalties against employees, in an escalation of the agency’s election campaign fight with the construction union.

  7. The “ politics “ around Setka are for others to consider. I have no skin in the game re Setka either way but I am sick and tired of the MSM and other commentators playing judge and jury based on a certain agenda and backed up by flimsy evidence. They all have have real form.

    That is why I made no comment on the recent raids by the AFP. The MSM made no noise when the AFP raided the homes of labor staffers in 2016 re NBN leaks. They made no noise when the AFP raided the AWU in 2017 after briefing them beforehand. How exciting it was for the media then. Now, all of a sudden, it ain’t so much fun. Well, they can go and get fuc**d. I do not care about so called freedom of the press given all media outlets and most so called journos are agenda driven and consider themselves players in the political process rather than reporters of the facts.

    Se5ka may well be guilty of attacking Batty. If so off he should go. But I will not judge the man, as many others have been quick to do, on some article in the Age quoting unnamed sources and supplying nothing else as proof so far.

  8. Setka claims that Labor are playing dirty politics…

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/union-boss-john-setka-accuses-labor-of-dirty-politics/news-story/2c6bd3213ec6524a6df7cd72010712ec

    A CFMMEU member leaked the claims “for nothing more than political gain”, he said, accusing the ALP of “dirty politics”.
    Mr Setka believes there are forces attempting to claim his scalp for the purpose of “getting their hands on the (union) and all its assets”.
    “I represent CFMEU members. They employ me. They’re my bosses. If people want to expel me out of the Labor Party over false accusations, then so be it.
    “There appears to be some sort of push (by Labor). For what reasons, I can only assume (they’re) political, political gains.
    “I’ve got a view about where the union should be in regards to the ALP and some people probably don’t share that view. There’s a lot of dirty politics at play.”

  9. Doyley

    [ I am sick and tired of the MSM and other commentators playing judge and jury based on a certain agenda ]

    They are not. They are reporting on politicians playing judge and jury and also the ALP exercising its powers to suspend someone.

  10. Shellbell says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 9:02 am

    The CFFEMU reps certainly look well nourished.

    What are the buckets for?
    ——————————
    Probably to make it look like they have just popped in from a worksite.

  11. Can the people of NSW now have their public land back, please?

    Quentin Dempster@QuentinDempster
    4h4 hours ago

    Gulled! NSW Barry O’Farrell Govt. gave James Packer a casino licence for a building (on alienated public land at Barangaroo) 400 metres from Sydney’s The Star casino. Now the business plan (Chinese high rollers) has collapsed Mr Packer is exiting. Well done Barry. ⁦@smh⁩

  12. Urban Wronski@UrbanWronski
    6m6 minutes ago

    What should be worrying — not comforting — is that the Prime Minister is meeting with media executives to discuss the raids and their aftermath. The rich irony is that these meetings are themselves secret, and likely amount to a demand for special treatment for journalists…

  13. doyley @ #95 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 12:25 pm

    Diogenes,

    I know that and once that is done then he should be dealt with by the union and labor.

    However that is not what is driving this current attack on him. This is all about accusations from “unnamed sources “ that he directly bad mouthed Batty. If that is correct then he should go now and not wait until the court appearance on unrelated issues. However, apart from a story in the Age quoting “ sourses “ I have seen no direct evidence that Setka did, in fact, say what a growing number of individuals are claiming he is guilty of.

    Fake news is not the domain of social media alone and to accuse a person of saying or doing something based on a newspaper article and at this point nothing more substantial does not sit easy with me irrespective of who the person is.

    In the absence of direct evidence then this appears to be a witch hunt and it does raise the question of what gives media the right to play judge and jury based on what is so far unsubstantiated.

    He admitted saying it but came out with the line of being taken out of context.

  14. Unless Setka voluntarily resigns from the ALP there will be a hearing before the National Executive, at which the evidence against him will be tabled. One would think that Albanese’s referral to it would be based on probative evidence. I mean, I can’t see that he would stick his neck on hearsay evidence.

  15. C@t

    No, he didn’t admit “badmouthing Batty”. In fact no one is quoting the supposed sentence. It’s all “we done’t want this sort of person in the Labor Party”, which refers to his general reputation, I assume.

  16. From the article linked yesterday on Setka’s comments, he didn’t directly attack her but it could be said he was indirectly attacking her by saying lawyers were telling him that thanks to people like Batty, men had less rights.

    On the 730 interview with Albo, I thought it was fine, Sales didn’t cut Albo off and Albo’s answers were clear and concise.

  17. it could be said he was indirectly attacking her by saying lawyers were telling him that thanks to people like Batty, men had less rights.

    Hm, is quoting someone else’s words the same thing as endorsing what they were saying?

    And even if it is, doesn’t everyone have a right to indirectly (or directly) verbally attack whomever they want for whatever reason they like?

    The “badmouthing Batty” thing should be a non-issue any way you slice it. The DV allegations and harassment claims, on the other hand…

  18. Shell bell,

    I was talking about the MSM in their general day to day “ reporting “.

    The MSM and most journos see themselves as political players and part of the political circus. They pick and chose which stories to publish based on the political agenda of the organisations for which they work.

    Interesting the Barnaby Joyce story was not touched for months yet others have been jumped on based on some flimsy bootstrapping. Take Emma’s Hussar for example. Interesting the journos were all excited about being briefed beforehand about the AWU raids in 2017 in spite of what was a obvious political hit on Shorten and the unions. Even when the politics behind the raids were exposed the MSM were lukewarm in their interest and failed to dig very deep at all. Then how about Watergate ?

    Give me a break. The MSM are getting everything they deserve and I have no interest in the bleating com8ng from the herd now. Hoe about Newscorp and labor always being weak on national security ? Spare me the tears and crying now.

  19. Mavis Davis says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 1:38 pm
    Unless Setka voluntarily resigns from the ALP there will be a hearing before the National Executive, at which the evidence against him will be tabled. One would think that Albanese’s referral to it would be based on probative evidence. I mean, I can’t see that he would stick his neck on hearsay evidence.

    __________________________________

    Mavis

    I have no knowledge of this case, but I am constantly amazed by what experienced politicians of all colours will do WITHOUT having done their homework when under pressure.

    I share the worries of others about what is really out there as to what Setka said regarding Rosie Batty, but can only hope that Albanese (and other leading ALP lights) have actually done their homework and have reliable substantiated evidence that he bagged Batty and her work.

    If he bagged Batty he needs to go. We don’t need pushback against the critical work done by her to highlight and deal with violence. If, however, all he did was to point out that the administration of justice (not the laws themselves) is being misapplied to some men, I believe he has a point.

  20. a r says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 1:49 pm

    it could be said he was indirectly attacking her by saying lawyers were telling him that thanks to people like Batty, men had less rights.

    Hm, is quoting someone else’s words the same thing as endorsing what they were saying?

    And even if it is, doesn’t everyone have a right to indirectly (or directly) verbally attack whomever they want for whatever reason they like?

    The “badmouthing Batty” thing should be a non-issue any way you slice it. The DV allegations and harassment claims, on the other hand…
    ——————————-
    To some extent I agree with you because I’ve quoted someone without agreeing with them and you are right to place a higher concern with his alleged behavior in the DV allegations and harassment claims. However I think his reported comments are unnecessary and sends the wrong message.

    The issue that Setka needs to explain to the ALP and more importantly to his members is why was he even bothering with repeating what some lawyers had said about men’s rights, its not something keeping construction workers awake at night or concerning them as they shift a concrete slab into place.

    On the politics, I hope this isn’t Albo playing payback for the RGR wars because when Gillard became PM, there were a series of nasty stories put around that some people thought were from the Liberals dirt unit but according to various sources within the ALP, those stories came from the construction union.

  21. If there is direct evidence as to what Setka said and the context in which it was said either audio or video then it should be produced.

    Does anyone have faith in the MSM to properly do their jobs unaffected by political bias ?

    The Age or some other media organisation surely would have access to any such evidence. Why not make it public instead of bashing a individual on the basis of apparent “ unnamed sources “?

    I do not care either way about Setka as a person but if we are to throw him under a bus on this based on what has been reported so far then why not accept the same for anyone else whether it be a labor politician or union representative at anytime in the future ?

  22. And here come the LNP.

    The Morrison government will consider deregistering the CFMMEU after Victorian secretary John Setka confirmed he will not quit, even if he is convicted of criminal charges of harassing a woman.

    Unions are bracing for an all-out assault on the labour movement in the wake of this week’s Setka drama.

    Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie has previously called for deregistration, meaning the Coalition could need just two more votes in the Senate to deregister the controversial construction union.

    Another option would be to revive the “fit and proper” person test, which would prohibit Mr Setka, if he is convicted, from holding the union role.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/12/john-setka-refuses-quit/

  23. TPOF:

    [‘…but can only hope that Albanese (and other leading ALP lights) have actually done their homework and have reliable substantiated evidence that he bagged Batty and her work.’]

    Albanese is an experienced politician. If he has shot from the hip, he’s going to have a credibility problem. In bakunin’s post, Setka says: “If people want to expel me out of the Labor Party over false accusations, then so be it.” This leads me to believe that he’s resigned to his fate. If he didn’t say what others are saying, he appears to be the type of person who would fight his portended expulsion tooth and nail. That said, I agree with your overall thrust that pollies sometimes say, do strange thing when under pressure.

  24. If the Morrison Government was to attempt to deregister the CFMMEU, the union would fight it all the way to the High Court, it having substantial resources. I wonder if Morrison really wants to do battle with this union, in continuation of its anti-union stance. The TURC didn’t exactly turn out well for them.

  25. @Jansant
    17m17 minutes ago

    So now there are moves to deregister a union because of something that was alleged to have been said – whatever Sekta has said or done, the deregistering of a union is something completely different. Turned into an attack on workers rights. #auspol

  26. If, however, all he did was to point out that the administration of justice (not the laws themselves) is being misapplied to some men, I believe he has a point.

    And if that man was him?

  27. The ALP has a ready made response for any moves to deregister the construction union.

    When is the government canceling one of the big four’s banking license, if not why not.

    The answer should be the same as the one used against deregistering the construction union.

  28. And I honestly don’t see why the Morrison government are getting so hot to trot about deregistering the CFFMEU, in particular. As we can plainly see, the CFFMEU are no friends of the Labor Party and are quite prepared to campaign against them in elections, which only benefits the Coalition. Plus, if the CFFMEU are allowed to stick around the government, and various RW cartoonists, can continue beating Labor around the head with them ad infinitum. So I honestly don’t think the FPLP would lose any sleep over them being deregistered, as long as other unions picked up the members and the union movement in general remained strong. In fact, the Coalition would likely be quietly congratulated for doing the Labor Party a favour.

  29. Ben Raue’s Senate count update:

    Senate count update – week four
    by Ben Raue
    We’re now halfway through the fourth week of counting for the Senate, and the count has got close to the finish line, although we only have a final result in the Northern Territory, where Labor and the Country Liberal Party each retained their one Senate seat without any need for preferences.

    A few weeks ago I ran through each state and identified only one race, in Queensland, where seats were still in play. Since then the ALP has lost ground. While we will still need to wait for the distribution of preferences to know for sure, it seems likely that the last three seats will go to the LNP, the Greens and One Nation.

    The current quotas for these groups are:

    LNP – 2.74 quotas
    ALP – 1.59
    ON – 0.71
    GRN – 0.70

  30. lizzie @ #141 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 2:41 pm

    C@t

    I expect that in the LNP/IPA mind, deregistering a Union ranks above everything else.

    Yes, but historically speaking, Labor only benefited from the deregistration of the Painters and Dockers. It was one less bogeyman for the Coalition to beat Labor over the head with. There are other unions who could take the place of the CFFMEU. Plus, and I’m not sure about this but maybe they could go back to their constituent parts, CFMEU, MUA, as it would have been only the CFFMEU that was deregistered.

  31. Say what you like about Sanders, but you just know he is going to nail this speech tomorrow…

    Sanders to give speech defending democratic socialism

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/447574-sanders-to-give-speech-defending-democratic-socialism
    He is apparently going to use Martin Luther Kings ‘socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for the poor’ line to defend his beliefs and attack Trump.

    mundo goes on about the need for powerful and convincing defence of the values of the left. Sanders does that.

  32. Cat,

    I am sorry but simply writing off the potential upcoming assault on the CFMMEU as “ karma “ is just bullshit.

    The CFMMEU is much more than just the Victorian construction branch. It represents mine workers, energy workers, forestry workers, maritime workers and so many more across the country.

    A attack on the CFMMEU is a attack on all of these workers many many of whom vote labor. Setka is just the Trojan horse for a renewed assault on the rights of workers in this country to join together and fight for better conditions.

    I do not know who the CFMMEU supported in mining seats in central Queensland but whoever it was that was a decision for the union and it would have been based on what they considered was best for their members in those seats. That is the job of unions. It is not simply to fall into line behind the labor party. To now brush aside a potential attack on the CFMMEU as a whole as getting what it deserves it pretty weak.

  33. C@tmomma @ #140 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 2:36 pm

    And I honestly don’t see why the Morrison government are getting so hot to trot about deregistering the CFFMEU, in particular.

    Seems like pure win for the Coalition, to me:

    1. They get to be seen standing up to someone who the media has helpfully painted (perhaps accurately) as abusive to women.
    2. If Labor defends either Setka or the CFMMEU, the Coalition can accuse them of being weak/conflicted on DV/misogyny/etc., and/or controlled by union thugs (the Coalition being quite adept at playing ‘guilty by association’).
    3. If Labor joins the Coalition in condemning Setka and the CFMMEU then relations between Labor and the unions will be further strained and the Coalition potentially takes out the CFMMEU.
    4. It’ll distract nicely from the AFP raids against the media.

    Not really seeing any pluses for Labor in there. At best maybe they can use this to help transition from being the party of unions to the party of everyday Australians, as the former group doesn’t include nearly enough people to win an election anymore anyways.

  34. Setka aside. It’s amusing that some are arguing that the CFMMEU, who do mostly look after the interests of their members should be thrown aside, while staunchly defending the SDA who have exploited their own members mercilessly for decades.

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