Mopping up operations

Late counting adds some extra grunt to the backlash against the Liberals in wealthy city seats, slightly reducing the size of their expected winning margin on the national two-party vote.

The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.

Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.

We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.

Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.

Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,117 comments on “Mopping up operations”

  1. zoomster
    says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 4:55 pm
    Maybe so, nath, but if your preferred solution is that no one from the Catholic right wing gets to work for anyone, it seems a little extreme.
    I don’t like them, but I’m not denying them the right to work.
    _______________________________
    I’m not denying them the right to work. I’m just pointing out their existence and their history. I do believe that the SDA should be expelled from the ACTU and the ALP but they pay a lot of money to those two organizations to make sure that doesn’t; happen.

  2. Lucky Creed says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 4:20 pm

    The CFFMEU are about the only union with a large private sector membership left that has any real connection with it’s membership.
    ———————————–
    It basically owns its membership because without a ticket its not possible to be employed in the construction sector.

    Being required to belong to an entity before being employed isn’t unusual and there are practical reasons why its the case usually surrounding qualification standards.

  3. On the SDA and Catholicism, all I will say is that I don’t mind if people want to believe fictions about sky spirits if that helps them cope with the complexity of the world, but I vehemently oppose such fictions forming the basis for any decisions about public policy on any level.

  4. not only have the SDA campaigned on the conservative side of abortion, euthanasia and same sex marriage, here’s another little historical fact:

    The SDA – the “shoppies” – left the Victorian Trades Hall Council in the early 1990s complaining about its pro-land rights (Mabo) position and political direction at that time.

  5. nath

    The IPA, for all its faults, don’t exploit teenage supermarket workers to get the likes of Tony Burke elected.

    If the SDA is the reason that Tony Burke is in Parliament, it’s one of the few good things about it.

  6. If the Age, ABC or any other media organisation or “ journo “ has any direct evidence be it video, audio or a attendee(s) at the meeting who is/are prepared to publically confirm Setka did in fact abuse Batty then now would be a good time. Otherwise any assumptions re what they Setka said or did not say is based on nothing.

    If the MSM and others continue to rely on “ unnamed sources “ to attack Setka on this issue then as far as I am concerned it is bullshit and nothing more than bootstrapping.

    This issue is completely separate to the criminal charges against Setka to which he intends to plead guilty later this month. This issue re Batty is about the MSM attacking a individual based on some anonymous sources that unless supported by solid evidence should be ignored. Of course those with some agenda will grab this story with both hands to attack Setka, the CFMMEU and the labour movement in general.

    The MSM have form on this. Look at Emmar Hussar and how her career and life was affected by a media pile up.

    Be it Setka, Hussar or whoever. The issue is all about the MSM being able to destroy the reputation of a individual simply to suit a particular agenda.

    How scary is that ?

  7. Well, at least Labor is not running the country right now.

    The Coalition seems to think somebody else is running the country.
    At any rate the leaks and raids have got nothing to do with them.

    The Greens are fixing global warming while not leaving anyone behind. So it is good to see that someone is on the job.

  8. ‘I’m just pointing out their existence and their history.’

    Because no one here knows they exist?

    And – getting back to the main point – why does that make Greg Sheridan’s actions at all remarkable? The union didn’t endorse his working for someone else, they simply didn’t stop someone earning money from activities carried out in his own time.

    And – for all we know – he left the SDA because he disagreed with them.

    If you want to establish a pattern of devilish infiltration of other organisations by the SDA, I’d suggest you need to use more than a couple of examples. Otherwise anyone leaving one organisation to work anywhere else could be portrayed as devilish infiltration.

  9. And – for all we know – he left the SDA because he disagreed with them.
    ___________________________
    If you read his biography you will find that he does still agree with them. Probably also on land rights for indigenous Australians too, considering that both the Australian and the SDA were so hostile to Mabo and Keating’s Native Title legislation. Sheridan has just recently opposed the Uluru statement too. So that’s interesting.

  10. zoomster
    says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 5:21 pm
    nath
    So now you’re denying Christians the right to work, too?
    You’re coming across as extremely prejudiced.
    _____________________________
    Who’s denying anyone the right to work?

  11. Traditionally unions have been conservative minded as in trying to protect existing rights and conditions. This is why the unions were firm supporters of the WAP and cracked an almighty stink when Whitlam removed support for the WAP from the ALP’s policy platform in the late 1960s. The SDA is clearly one of the more traditional unions in their mindset.

  12. Tony Burke…..Hmm. That must be the top barrister with a fine legal mind who has never actually practiced law.

    That would be this guy, would it?

    He attended the University of Sydney where he graduated with a Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Laws. He was also awarded the Martin Sorensen Trophy for Best Speaker at the 1994 Australasian Intervarsity Debating Championships.

    As I said, and I am absolutely 100% correct, if Tony Bourke hadn’t gone into politics he would have made a fine barrister. But he chose not to, and that is somehow cause for vilification according to our resident pissant, nath.

  13. Mexican,

    And that is a huge difference to the “Setka attacks Batty “ meme that the media has been and continues pumping out based on anonymous sources.

    A huge difference and if the media continue to run with it then perhaps they can actually confirm the accuracy of their story by providing evidence in the form of audio or video that shows Setka actually abusing and attacking Batty at the meet8ng in question.

    Anyway enough said. The next few days will be interesting. Time to go.

  14. doyley @ #228 Wednesday, June 12th, 2019 – 5:32 pm

    Mexican,

    And that is a huge difference to the “Setka attacks Batty “ meme that the media has been and continues pumping out based on anonymous sources.

    A huge difference and if the media continue to run with it then perhaps they can actually confirm the accuracy of their story by providing evidence in the form of audio or video that shows Setka actually abusing and attacking Batty at the meet8ng in question.

    One would imagine they have this, otherwise their lawyers wouldn’t have allowed them to go public with the story. Also, John Setka hasn’t actually rushed to his lawyers to launch a defamation case against the media.

    So, doyley, do you approve of John Setka, on the other hand, abusing and harassing the woman on the phone such as we have read transcripts of and which he has admitted to doing?

  15. Gee it would seem that even some members of the ‘left’ on here have been drinking the Murdoch Kool Aid. Now it seems that much of this is a dead set beat up, but some are always prepared to believe the worst of some people and Setka clearly falls into this category. Now there are even women supporting Setka’s version of events, but piss weak federal Labor rush off to call him out. When will they learn? the Tories never, ever do that!

  16. The media reports about John Setka are vague. An unnamed person is claiming that John Setka criticized Rosie Batty’s advocacy on family violence issues. This unnamed person is saying that John Setka criticized Rosie Batty for causing men to have fewer rights. John Setka denies saying anything like this.

    This is a pretty weak story. Even if it’s true, it isn’t clear that John Setka said anything derogatory. Criticising a public figure isn’t necessarily offensive. I find it interesting that the unnamed person and the media people who are pushing the story seem to think that poor Rosie Batty is a vulnerable and delicate woman who needs to be protected from the big brash union leader. I think that this person who is too chickenshit to put their name to their account and the media people are assuming that Rosie Batty would faint if she ever heard any criticisms of her. In reality, Rosie Batty has been a very high profile and resilient campaigner for a long time. I doubt that she would get an attack of the vapours if she heard that someone criticized the impact of her advocacy on men’s rights.

  17. P.S> re the alleged verbal abuse. there is no context is there? What did this woman say to him/ do to him? That is not an excuse, but I would like to know, before putting the noose around his neck as so many on here have done.

  18. People seem to be ‘taking positions’. 😆

    FatherBob@FatherBob
    1h1 hour ago

    Politician rang to let us know “Maguire supports Setka so we’re not supporting Maguire” …as Shakespeare(?) said “Now has confusion made his masterpiece “.

  19. C@t

    I don’t know Setka from a bar of soap.

    My only interest, unlike your’s, is the rule of law.

    Mob rule, of which the likes of you are a variant, results in an unfriendly and uncooperative society.

    Your predisposition to jump in here without facts, or withering facts, has been well documented here in the last 6 months or so. In fact I recall that the eminent Mr Bowe has even called you out on it.

    If Setka is a criminal let him be convicted, but on evidence and not supposition.

    In the present matter their seems to be a distinct lack of evidence. There may be evidence, but my preference is to know it before I criticise him for this matter.

    Perhaps you would be so kind and cooperative as to post the evidence on which you wish to get rid of Setka.

    Cheers luvvie.

  20. Laughing over all the Setka apologists in here, you’ve obviously forgotten he sent 45 abusive text messages to a woman, and there’s documented proof for that.
    I’m assuming the same people who disliked Rudd now dislike Albo.

  21. The CFMEU campaigned for the Coalition in Central and Northern QLD, and yet some are holding them up as virtuous champions of the Labor movement: hilarious

  22. forgotten he sent 45 abusive text messages to a woman, and there’s documented proof for that.

    That doesn’t justify sloppy reporting though.

    Or do you think that if a person is guilty of some wrongdoing it is fine to make up some fake stuff too on the grounds of “near enough is good enough”?

  23. Meanwhile the smell of real corruption hangs on two federal coalition members re water, but there are crickets regarding that story and they are both still in place.

  24. nath

    Richards Dawkins blames victims of rape on drunkenness, compares Islam to cancer, and believes in the existence of a gay gene.

    So no, I am not impressed by his amazing ability to outwit Christian fundamentalists.

  25. P1

    From your link:

    ‘Australia fell one place in the index to rank 13th due to an increase in militarisation — namely weapons imports — military expenditure and nuclear and heavy weapons, and the incarceration rate in Australia also rose.’

    There are a few other basic bloopers in the same article.

  26. Anybody who takes anything coming out of the MSM re Labor or anyone associated with Labor at face value, is either an idiot or has an agenda.

    How many examples of media double standards do we have to see before these idiots wake up?

  27. ‘clem attlee says:
    Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 6:03 pm

    Meanwhile the smell of real corruption hangs on two federal coalition members re water, but there are crickets regarding that story and they are both still in place.’

    Yep.

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