Mopping up operations

Late counting adds some extra grunt to the backlash against the Liberals in wealthy city seats, slightly reducing the size of their expected winning margin on the national two-party vote.

The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.

Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.

We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.

Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.

Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,119 comments on “Mopping up operations”

Comments Page 35 of 43
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  1. The German’s have a warehouse sized extruding machine than can turn chicken chicken arseholes into a product that is indiscernible from breast, so I guess anything is possible.

  3. Barney in Makassar @ #1694 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 7:24 pm

    I was just demonstrating if such good results continued where it would leave them.

    I know. Marginally ahead of where they are now. In fact, pretty much where they’ve always been.

    It still doesn’t distract form the fact that Labor’s primary vote is moving backwards faster than the Greens is moving forwards. That should be Labor’s main concern. Gloating over the Greens moving forward incrementally is not going to solve that problem. And it is a problem that needs to be solved long before the next election is held.

  4. Not Sure:

    [‘Did they not swear in ye olden days?’]

    I did at times, but it has never been a part of my speech. I love the English language.

  5. D&M
    My daughter is vegetarian for health reasons. The best advice for anyone cooking vegetarian is a buy Yotam Ottalenghis books. They are a total revelation and have made an unbelievable difference to my life. Plenty, Plenty More and Simple (which isn’t all vegetarian)

  6. I have given plenty of veg meal suggestions over the years. Often from the Hetty McKinnon books or more likely from Madhur Jaffreys World Vegetarian book where she gets ridiculous amounts of flavour from vegetables. But for kicks, my brunch recipe…

    Toasted Mylor Bakery Sourdough, rubbed with a cut garlic clove and topped with diced tomato and torn basil (feta or goats cheese optional) with a drizzle of finest sharpest extra virgin olive oil, cracked pepper and a sprinkle of pink salt sourced by hand from Pink Lakes near Ouyen.

    With a short but thick turkish coffee – sugar/whiskey optional.

  8. The next time that gutless wimp Stratton pinches someone he should have his fingers snapped in half and shoved down Jeff Kennetts throat. What kind of club let’s their captain do that?

  10. My sones, this sit’s now into recipes. I’ll now bow out.

    We can talk about shovels. Or black puddings. Or precipitation….

  12. Rowland threatening to disaffiliate the CFMMEU if Setka doesn’t quit raises the bar. Setka is obviously going to be booted from the Labor party. What a mess.

  14. ‘ Gloating over the Greens moving forward incrementally is not going to solve that problem..’

    Which wasn’t what was happening. Someone stated that the Greens had had a good result, and that statement was questioned.

    That’s not gloating.

  15. Mavis

    Some of my family’s favorite recipes have come from this site…

    A simple vegetarian dish — fry onions, add tomatoes, simmer til juice thickens, add cooked beans, simmer until soft. Eat as is, or tart it up a bit by adding cornchips, cheese, and/or yoghurt.

  16. Not sure

    Coles sells vegetarian tuna how.
    I’m unclear as to how they achieved this.

    The Chinese have had centuries of experience turning soybeans into “meat” substitutes. The Taiwanese in particular specialise in it. Tofu, tempeh to name a few. You need to try different types and brands, but a lot if it is very good.

  17. Dio,

    My daughter is vegetarian for health reasons. The best advice for anyone cooking vegetarian is a buy Yotam Ottalenghis books. They are a total revelation and have made an unbelievable difference to my life. Plenty, Plenty More and Simple (which isn’t all vegetarian)

    That is great advice. My son gave me his “Jerusalem” cookbook. it is brilliant!

    I should scan my favourite recipes for when I am travelling.

  18. I don’t blame the greens or the ADANI convoy for federal Labor’s woes. I blame Labor.

    The greens are first and foremost enviromentalists this this foundations of their political philosophy.

    Yes they do advocate for a more equitable society, but within the constraints of a rabid enviromentalism that borders on nature worship.

    Labor need to be seen putting clean air between themselves and the greens,Qld Labor having just seen their lives flash before their eyes have finally woken up to this. Whether it is too late to save the state government only time will tell.

    Perception is everything in politics and there is a perception out there among some voters that the greens are just an extension of Labor and that they both sing from the same hymn sheet on enviromental issues.

    During the election campaign Shorten did nothing to undermine this perception indeed he went out of his way to fortify it, that was his choice, nothing to do with the greens stop blaming the greens.

    It was Federal Labor who chose to be a pale green party, we don’ t have first past the post voting, Labor didn’t need to do it, they chose to do it, they and they alone own this result.

  21. You could do Yorkeshire pudding to go with it. The trick to that is to have the oil almost smoking hot before pouring the batter in the tin and putting it in thehot oven, If you get a muffin ot tart tin you can makr individual ones. There are recipes on the internet.

  22. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Jacqui Maley wonders what has changed to make Labor’s attitude to Setka change. It was publicity, she says.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-and-unions-always-knew-setka-s-form-what-s-changed-is-publicity-20190614-p51xu5.html
    Federal Labor is turning up the heat on the coalition government to split its planned income tax cuts to help immediately stimulate a floundering economy.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6218943/govt-more-interested-in-tax-fight-labor/?cs=14231
    Katharine Murphy and Christopher Knaus have collaborated to write a feature article on Mike Pezzullo becoming Australia’s most powerful bureaucrat.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/15/how-did-mike-pezzullo-become-australias-most-powerful-bureaucrat
    Judith Ireland reports that Kerry O’Brien says the federal government should not “faff around” with a proposed parliamentary inquiry into press freedom, and should instead move to urgently update national security laws to improve protections for journalists and whistleblowers.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/they-shouldn-t-faff-around-kerry-o-brien-urges-government-to-skip-press-freedom-inquiry-20190614-p51xrr.html
    The prime minister’s department has intervened to thwart the release of the navy chief’s diary to a senator investigating the handling of a multibillion-dollar arms contract. Bulldog Rex Patrick is on the job!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/15/pms-department-tries-to-block-release-of-navy-chiefs-diary-in-arms-contract-investigation
    Unemployment was unchanged in May. But the seemingly positive numbers are hiding a growing scourge in our labour market: underemployment.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/06/13/underemployment-work-epidemic/
    Matt Wade explains how Sydney is the champion when it comes to inequality.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-rich-in-sydney-get-a-bigger-share-of-the-income-pie-20190614-p51xw7.html
    The Mascot Towers instability issue points again to building standards and regulation.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/mascot-towers-residents-in-limbo-after-persistent-cracks-widened-20190615-p51y1x.html
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/15/mascot-towers-sydney/
    Peter FitzSimons nicely describes the Hawke memorial service.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/strange-bedfellows-and-long-time-adversaries-come-together-for-bob-hawke-s-memorial-20190614-p51xtg.html
    Nick Cohen wonders when resistance in Britain to populism will properly begin.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/15/when-will-resistance-to-populism-in-britain-properly-begin-brexit
    Former Sydney Swan Brandon Jack writes with considerable feeling that the pressure to “be a man” is bringing heartache to too many people. When young men are made to feel that this life is not for them anymore, we should rethink what it is about this life that drives them to that point.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/so-i-can-t-change-a-flat-tyre-let-me-out-of-this-lethal-man-trap-20190614-p51xtr.html
    Bridget McKenzie is the federal politician who claimed the most in travel allowances last year, spending at least three out of five nights in 2018 staying at hotels and billing taxpayers for more than $1400 a week.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/bridget-mckenzie-tops-the-list-for-politicians-travel-claims-20190607-p51veu.html
    The owner of a Japanese tanker attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday has offered a different account of the nature of the attack than that provided by the United States. Yutaka Katada, president of Kokuka Sangyo, said the Filipino crew of the Kokuka Courageous thought their vessel had been hit by flying objects rather than a mine. There’s funny business here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/japanese-ship-owner-contradicts-us-account-of-how-tanker-was-attacked-20190615-p51xzz.html
    The captain of Hawthorn gets today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week” for this unedifying sporting performance.
    https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/ben-stratton-sent-straight-to-tribunal-for-pinching-and-stomping-20190615-p51y1i.html

    Cartoon Corner

    From Matt Golding.



    Richard Gilberto looks to the future.

    Zanetti just couldn’t resist it!

    From the US






    The Washington Post sees off Sarah Sanders.

  23. Interesting that Beazley first introduced the idea of Home Affairs.

    While home affairs is Dutton’s ambition made bureaucratic flesh, insiders insist it was Pezzullo who pitched it as he moved through public service positions after leaving the world of political staffing. This is hardly surprising. Pezzullo pitched it first to Beazley, who agreed to create a home affairs portfolio, and a coastguard. It is unquestionably his baby.

    Beazley announced the proposed overhaul in October 2001. In the wake of the September 11 attacks, Beazley said Labor would implement a “powerful, Cabinet-level ministry of home affairs” which would take in law enforcement, including the AFP and the National Crime Authority, counter terrorism, coastal surveillance, including the new coastguard, aviation security, security intelligence, including Asio, homeland security, including the federal protection service, telecommunications interception, responsibility for the protection of national information infrastructure, the customs service and national disaster response.
    …
    “Executives in home affairs are conscientious and honourable people, but they are in a construct that encourages conformity,” the ANU expert says. He says if home affairs is now part of the Canberra architecture, and his view is it’s now not really viable to pull it apart, then there needs to be mechanisms to guard against the risks. A separate statutory authority, a national security adviser, could provide contestable advice, and there needs to be effective oversight.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/15/how-did-mike-pezzullo-become-australias-most-powerful-bureaucrat

  24. Barney in Makassar @ #1528 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 3:45 pm

    lizzie says:
    Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 3:03 pm

    C@t

    I find it so frustrating that voters seem to agree with this furphy. Just like boasting about spending on something being the record highest. As the popn grows, all figures increase, even when the per capita spending goes down.

    Yep, they’re meaningless numbers when taken by themselves.

    That the media give them any credibility for me is the real issue.

    If they chose not to regurgitate such crap and focused on what the real situation is, the general public wouldn’t be placed in a position to swallow it.

    Ah but they never seem to gloat about them collecting record amounts of tax from PAYE, which seems to be going up each year.

  25. Heard a discussion overnight about corruption in the Pacific, and in the view of Pacific Islanders, Australia is as corrupt as any.

  26. Morning all. Thanks BK. The middle eastern tanker attacks are fishy. Why would Iran attack a Japanese tanker when the Japan PM was meeting them and improving relations. The other tanker was Norwegian. Israel and Saudi Arabia both gain if such meetings are derailed. The Yemeni Houthi rebels could also have done it to annoy the Saudis. This article points out the flaws in the US claims.
    https://www.juancole.com/2019/06/whatever-certainty-tankers.html

  27. We are seeing the result of getting rid of red tape. The second Sydney residential tower had to be evacuated due to structural integrity issues.

    I have a relative who is suffering from a similar problem. Not as serious as above, but still estimated to cost $100,000 for their share of the cost to rectify and moving out for a number of months.

    There was a time we had red tape and sound buildings, now we have neither.

    What we do have now poorer people and richer developers.

  28. PeeBee:

    When I saw that report yesterday my first thought was if you were buying an apartment in Sydney make sure you buy in an older building rather than a newer one!

  29. Lizzie

    I have said before that in my field (infrastructure projects) Australia now, especially at Federal level, is as corrupt as the former Bjelke Petersen government was in Qld. People are giving their mates billion dollar deals.

    If you look up Transparency International, Australia’s rating for government probity has slipped two notches under the Liberals. We have gone from top third to mid-field.

  30. Socrates

    One of the factors in the Pacific is the maintenance of the “refugee camps” on Manus and Nauru, distorting their governing and supporting rorts.

  31. Peebee
    Good point about red tape. Same about green tape. We used to have some green tape and we used to have an environment.
    Now all we have is an externality except when it is a source or a sump.

  35. Worth listening to: https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/who-runs-this-place/who-runs-this-place-the-triangle/11211498

    Episode 1 – Canberra

    More power is concentrated inside Canberra’s Parliamentary Triangle than anywhere else. The Constitution doesn’t mention the Prime Minister but that office is where the power is. We look at how Prime Ministerial power has changed in the 21st Century. And, over the same time period, another part of the Canberra landscape has gained a huge range of powers: the security agencies.

  36. Boerwar @ #1731 Sunday, June 16th, 2019 – 8:59 am

    Peebee
    Good point about red tape. Same about green tape. We used to have some green tape and we used to have an environment.
    Now all we have is an externality except when it is a source or a sump.

    It’s all in the wording. ‘Red Tape’ and ‘Green Tape’ SOUND restrictive. So that’s what the low information human believes. So they elect the people that promise to remove it and be rid of it to enable ‘freedom’ for those people to do what THEY want. Individual Freedom, the mantra of the Neoliberal.

  40. Outgoing Tasmanian Senator Lisa Singh fires some parting shots across Labor’s bow:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-16/lisa-singh-fires-parting-shots-at-labor/11213604

    The victim of factional deals at preselection, Senator Singh lost her seat at the May election after being dumped to fourth on the party Senate ticket.
    :::
    It’s not the first time Senator Singh has been done over by Tasmanian Labor factions.
    :::
    Senator Singh said Labor should use its federal election loss to examine its preselection processes and how they could be made more democratic.

    She was pushed down the ticket despite receiving a high number of “rank and file” votes at the Labor conference last year, but factional deals and weighting of delegates’ votes went against the factionally-unaligned Senator.

    Delegates voting in preselection were required to “show and tell” their completed ballots to factional heavyweights, with only a handful refusing.
    :::
    Senator Singh does not know what the future holds but has not completely ruled out a future tilt at politics.

  41. In Victoria…

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-councils-join-forces-to-fight-north-east-link-20190615-p51y28.html

    Three Melbourne councils have joined forces to fight the $15.8 billion North East Link project in its current form, saying it poses unacceptable ecological risks and will have a disastrous impact on homes, local roads and community facilities.

    Banyule, Boroondara and Whitehorse councils say the environmental impacts of the Victorian government’s North East Link are serious and irreversible and the benefits have been “materially exaggerated”.
    :::
    The three councils have made a joint submission urging federal environment minister Sussan Ley not to approve the North East Link under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act.

  42. I’ve been reading about Boris Johnson this morning, as he seems to be on track to be the UK’s next PM (with maybe Nigel Farage as Deputy PM I have quizzically read, if the Tories subsume the Brexit Party) and it seems as though Boris Johnson has a very interesting family history which connects him directly with Brussels and his loathing of the EU from a very young age. His former editor at The Daily Telegraph was compelled to write this about him:

    His old editor from The Daily Telegraph, Max Hastings was moved to write, in a widely published diatribe, a jaw-dropper to read in full:

    “If the day ever comes that Boris Johnson becomes tenant of Downing Street, I shall be among those packing my bags for a new life in Buenos Aires or suchlike, because it means that Britain has abandoned its last pretensions to be a serious country…

    “Most politicians are ambitious and ruthless, but Boris is a gold medal egomaniac. I would not trust him with my wife nor – from painful experience – my wallet…

    “He is not a man to believe in, to trust or respect, save as a superlative exhibitionist. He is bereft of judgment, loyalty and discretion. Only in the star-crazed, frivolous Britain of the 21st century could such a man have risen so high, and he is utterly unfit to go higher still.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/oct/10/boris-johnson-unfit-to-be-prime-minister

    But he’s going to do it anyway.

  44. Crabbe’s interview of Dutton was a bare pass.
    As panel leader she does not get it…blabs on too much… her job is to make the three panellists excel.

  45. Lizzie
    “One of the factors in the Pacific is the maintenance of the “refugee camps” on Manus and Nauru, distorting their governing and supporting rorts.”

    Sorry my point was something of a non-sequitur and I appreciate that this is different work and issues to infrastructure projects. But the thing I find in common is that what used to be normal tendering processes are routinely ignored in Canberra today. That makes the awarding of contracts ripe for corruption.

  46. I have just caught up with the Bob Hawke Memorial Service on iview
    A few thoughts
    1. Bob Hawke made our national anthem “Australians all let us rejoice. . . ”
    2. Bob Hawke appeared on Towards 2000 to spruik the dangers of global warming in 1989
    3. as well as getting a moratorium on mining in Antartica – currently Australia isn’t doing research in Antartica
    4. Blanche delivered part of the eulogy in Mandarin, which she had gone to great pains to learn
    5. the tune “Downunder” is emblematic of an optimistic nation, the tune was bought 10 years later from the copyright owner and the band was sued for breeching copyright, causing a band member to suicide

    6. Scott Morrison wrote 3/4 page in the memorial book WTF??

    see Reflections from Barrie Cassidy under
    https://iview.abc.net.au/show/bob-hawke-state-memorial-service

    I felt very sorry that Labor lost the election. Shorten would have made a fine Prime Minister

  47. Despite the Greens’s silence on the matter, Morrison can stop Adani any time he wants to
    The real question is whether he will subsidize it.
    Meanwhile Ms Hanson, who does have some power in the Senate, wants a coal-fired power station built and the Bradfield Scheme put in place.

  49. In Australia today there are 1.1 million underemployed, 1.1 million marginally attached to the labour force, and 700,000 unemployed.

    https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6226.0

    These 2.9 million Australians are unwilling and unwitting conscripts in an effort to maintain stable prices.

    It is good to have stable prices but it is immensely wasteful to secure price stability in this way.

    It is possible and desirable to have an unemployment rate that is never above 2 percent and underemployment and marginal attachment rates that hover around zero.

    The way to do it is to set up a Job Guarantee whereby the federal government makes an unconditional offer of living wage employment to everyone who wants employment.

    The employers in the program would be local governments, state governments, NGOs, not-for-profit social enterprises, cooperatives… anyone except for-profit firms (it is important that it doesn’t degenerate into a wage subsidy scheme).

    We need to be creative and imaginative when we think of what counts as a valid job.

    Caring for children, elderly relatives, and relatives with disabilities could be a Job Guarantee job if a person wanted.

    The Job Guarantee could validate and affirm caring work that is currently hidden and underappreciated.

    Participating in education and training could be a Job Guarantee job if a person wanted.

    Planning, launching and consolidating a small enterprise could be a Job Guarantee job if a person wanted.

    There would be a panoply of Job Guarantee jobs related to social and community services, environmental services, artistic and cultural services, and small-scale public works.

    The employer and the jobseeker would design a role around the jobseeker’s interests, preferences, and abilities.

    For the vast majority of people, a Job Guarantee job would be a transition job – a stepping stone to a higher paid job in the private sector or in the regular public sector.

    But there would be no obligation to move on. If a person wanted to do a Job Guarantee job on a long term basis and they were fulfilling their obligations satisfactorily there would be nothing stopping them from doing the job indefinitely.

    A Job Guarantee would make it easy for people to create a role that is rich in meaning and purpose, that serves an obvious public good, that has positive social interactions, and that has relevant and rewarding opportunities for learning and development.

    Macroeconomically the Job Guarantee would have one purpose: to be an automatic stabiliser that ensures that the federal government is automatically doing precisely the correct amount of spending in precisely the right places at precisely the right time to achieve full employment with stable prices.

    When the private sector is recovering, federal government spending would automatically fall as people leave the Job Guarantee for higher paid jobs elsewhere.

    When the private sector experienced a downturn, federal government spending would automatically increase as people lose their private sector jobs and enter the Job Guarantee.

  50. ‘Diogenes says:
    Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 9:47 pm

    D&M
    My daughter is vegetarian for health reasons. The best advice for anyone cooking vegetarian is a buy Yotam Ottalenghis books. They are a total revelation and have made an unbelievable difference to my life. Plenty, Plenty More and Simple (which isn’t all vegetarian)’

    I am not a vego but Ottalenghi is yummo.

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