Mopping up operations

Late counting adds some extra grunt to the backlash against the Liberals in wealthy city seats, slightly reducing the size of their expected winning margin on the national two-party vote.

The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.

Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.

We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.

Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.

Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,119 comments on “Mopping up operations”

Comments Page 31 of 43
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  1. This is probably a good time to remember Albanese on Howard in 1998. It makes very satisfying reading in the light of subsequent events.

    Today my grievance is against the Prime Minister (Mr Howard) for his failure to provide leadership. You can trim the eyebrows; you can cap the teeth; you can cut the hair; you can put on different glasses; you can give him a ewe’s milk facial, for all I care; but, to paraphrase a gritty Australian saying, `Same stuff, different bucket.’ In the pantheon of chinless blue bloods and suburban accountants that makes up the Australian Liberal Party, this bloke is truly one out of the box. You have to go back to Billy McMahon to find a Prime Minister who even approaches this one for petulance, pettiness and sheer grinding inadequacy.
    …
    So steeped in conservative values and fear of what is new is John Winston Howard that, if he were born before the Wright brothers, he would have organised a campaign against air travel of any description on the grounds that it was new and potentially dangerous. He is an antique, a remnant of the past that should be put on display, but not in government and certainly not in a leadership position, for anachronisms belong in museums and historical texts, not in parliament. Australians deserve a courageous leader; they do not deserve the kind of leader that used to dob on them in the schoolyard. They do not deserve John Winston Howard and in time they will put him out to pasture. Roll on that day, come the federal election.

    https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/grievance-debate-prime-minister

  3. doyley @ #1496 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 1:50 pm

    Btw,

    I do not care who the leader of the federal labor party is. Be it Albanese, Shorten or whoever. If any leader had intervened and caused the damage to the labour movement that the current leader has this week I would call them out.

    I have always voted labor but if there was a choice at any time between the labor party under the leadership of whoever or the union movement the union movement would win out every time.

    Unions have done more for workers and the disadvantaged in this country than the labor party at any time. Yes, there are officials within the union movement who have caused the movement damage and continue to do so. Setka has done good work for his members in a very hard and tough industry. However, due to a combination of circumstances his time has come to go. Mcmanus had this process under control until Albanese intervened.

    So yes, piss of Albanese ( and I would say the same about whoever was leading the party ) and concentrate on your day job of holding the government to account and let McManus and the modern union movement leaders get on with their job.

    Albanese should take your advice and urge the ALP to formally break official ties with the union movement.

    Individual unions would then be free to direct any financial backing to the candidates of their choice.

    The ALP would then be free to shift power to the rank and file members.

  4. C@tmomma @ #1497 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 1:53 pm

    clem attlee @ #1493 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 1:26 pm

    Well given, just how piss weak the federal Labor are and have been historically, I think I would prefer the CMFFEU to protect my interests, rather than than the party. In respect to Crankmomma’s comment re Gallagher….You have no idea do you? However, that never holds you back from making some sort of inane comment.

    Lol.

    I left the bit out where my late husband worked with Jack Mundey in the Sydney Cove Redevelopment Authority. So I kind of do have a clue. 🙂

    But keep proving why you are a clueless idiot from Victoria, clem attlee, it’s fun to watch.

    Maybe you can come up with another name for me that is supposed to make me cry?

    :kissykissy: 😆

    What have you got against Victoria ?

  5. The Labor party stands condemned for their support of environmental vandalism. It’s absolutely no surprise that QLD Premier Adani has caved in to the mining industry. That was obviously the plan all along. Just wait quietly until the federal election was over and then wave it on through. What a disgrace. Just another example of why Labor can’t be trusted to protect the environment.

    I’ve got news for the QLD Premier though! It’s not just the southerners who oppose it, plenty of people in QLD don’t want Adani to happen either. The surge in the Greens vote in the QLD Senate and in lower house seats in Brisbane clearly demonstrates this. Bring on the QLD election I say!

    Big mistake Labor, big mistake.

  6. Rex Douglas @ #1507 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 2:21 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1497 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 1:53 pm

    clem attlee @ #1493 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 1:26 pm

    Well given, just how piss weak the federal Labor are and have been historically, I think I would prefer the CMFFEU to protect my interests, rather than than the party. In respect to Crankmomma’s comment re Gallagher….You have no idea do you? However, that never holds you back from making some sort of inane comment.

    Lol.

    I left the bit out where my late husband worked with Jack Mundey in the Sydney Cove Redevelopment Authority. So I kind of do have a clue. 🙂

    But keep proving why you are a clueless idiot from Victoria, clem attlee, it’s fun to watch.

    Maybe you can come up with another name for me that is supposed to make me cry?

    :kissykissy: 😆

    What have you got against Victoria ?

    Nothing. It’s just that that particular commenter seems to think he sees all and knows all about NSW from that State.

  7. Firefox,
    The Greens should change their name to The Lady Macbeth Party. Blood on their hands that they will never be able to wash off, and trying to salve your guilty conscience by blaming Labor isn’t going to cut it any more, I’m afraid.

  10. Compared to other animal migrations, the migrations of insects are a scientific mystery. It’s easy to spot a herd of wildebeest making its way across the savanna. Insects, even in huge numbers, move from place to place without much notice. One day you look around, and ladybugs are everywhere.

    “The migrations themselves are totally invisible,” said Jason Chapman, an ecologist at the University of Exeter in Britain.

    Dr. Chapman and his colleagues are using radar to bring insect migrations to light. The scientists help run a unique network of small radar stations in southern England designed to scan the sky 24 hours a day, spotting insects flying overhead.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/13/science/animals-migration-insects.html#click=https://t.co/J04U7J1api

  11. Michaelia says we have record total employment.

    Brendan O’Connor@BOConnorMP
    58m58 minutes ago

    Dishonest or delusional or both? In 2013 our unemployment rate was 10th out of 36 OECD nations. Today it’s 20th. Our rate is higher than UK, USA, NZ & Canada Underemployment at all time highs. Wage growth at all time lows. Economy anemic, consumption down, economic growth down.

  12. Firefox @ #1505 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 2:34 pm

    The Labor party stands condemned for their support of environmental vandalism. It’s absolutely no surprise that QLD Premier Adani has caved in to the mining industry. That was obviously the plan all along. Just wait quietly until the federal election was over and then wave it on through. What a disgrace. Just another example of why Labor can’t be trusted to protect the environment.

    I’ve got news for the QLD Premier though! It’s not just the southerners who oppose it, plenty of people in QLD don’t want Adani to happen either. The surge in the Greens vote in the QLD Senate and in lower house seats in Brisbane clearly demonstrates this. Bring on the QLD election I say!

    Big mistake Labor, big mistake.

    Federal Labors self-wedge was spectacularly catastrophic.

    The one thing Albanese must ensure is that Labor can’t go to another election with an unconvincing climate change/energy policy.

    If that means breaking ties with some of their union donors, then so be it.

  14. Firefox

    Not pointing at you, but I haven’t seen any comment by Greens on their disappointment at the promotion of Sussan Ley to environment. She’s just as useless as Price, but perhaps more eloquent.

  16. Whiteboard Cash was talking about the total number of people employed so in effect she was being honest but its also misleading because the population has been growing to record numbers and the unemployment rate is not at record lows.

  17. C@t

    I find it so frustrating that voters seem to agree with this furphy. Just like boasting about spending on something being the record highest. As the popn grows, all figures increase, even when the per capita spending goes down.

  19. Today is Donald Trump’s 73rd birthday. Most Presidents get a little grayer during their time in office, but most Presidents don’t dye their hair the color of soup!

    As Bill Maher said, after all these years, still a natural blonde.

  20. lizzie @ #1516 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 3:03 pm

    I find it so frustrating that voters seem to agree with this furphy. Just like boasting about spending on something being the record highest. As the popn grows, all figures increase, even when the per capita spending goes down.

    If the average voter doesn’t even understand the concept of division anymore we’re all fucked.

  21. How good is that Bob Brown memorial coal mine hey Firefox.

    Gloating at getting 10% of the state wide vote.

    Big George and all of the other LNP pirates love you.

    They love you even more given your blatant threat to wreck the Queensland state Labor Government.

    There won’t be a patch of native vegetation left in Queensland by the time you are through wrecking Labor.

    Good on you.

  22. lizzie @ #1485 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 1:20 pm

    PeeBee

    You will have been liquidated.

    VG indeed. Elephant Stamp for you – 🐘

    lizzie
    Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 1:08 pm
    Comment #1476

    Some of you may recall that about six weeks ago I had an operation.

    Quite apart from the fact that there are other reasons why I shouldn’t attempt to climb towers, and brisk walking around a 4-acre sloping block is a high enough goal at present, I wish I could draw this article to his attention. ******

    Thanks for that post. Quite recently the step counter in my phone failed and I quickly ordered another (later model) via my personal supplier (EBay). Naturally, after the hours of setting up and updating the Android device – I figured out how to how to restore functionality to my old device.

    I set myself only 1400 steps as a goal. This takes into account the fact that hip pain prevents me from anything more than short bursts of, say – 15 minutes. I have discussed this with my G.P. – telling him of my mowing program. He refuses to give me his home address – fearing my appearance in the witching hours armed with my mower.

    Regarding the Ms. Sussan Ley items. What can one expect from a person who knows not how to spell *Suzanne.

    *Suzanne is a common female given name that was particularly popular in the United States in the 1950s and 1960s. … Form of the Hebrew name שׁוֹשַׁנָּה (Shoshannah). This was derived from the Hebrew word שׁוֹשָׁן (shoshan) meaning “lily” (in modern Hebrew this also means “rose”).

    and therefore

    A rose 🌹by any other name is spelled Sussan.

    I hope I haven’t driven any more prospective posters from the blog today.😇

  23. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1521 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 3:12 pm

    How good is that Bob Brown memorial coal mine hey Firefox.

    Gloating at getting 10% of the state wide vote.

    Big George and all of the other LNP pirates love you.

    They love you even more given your blatant threat to wreck the Queensland state Labor Government.

    There won’t be a patch of native vegetation left in Queensland by the time you are through wrecking Labor.

    Good on you.

    If Labors vote ever stops bleeding you might have a point.

  25. A vote of no confidence, I feel. 😉

    Greg Jericho@GrogsGamut

    Oh how sweet.

    Queensland Premier tells Adani she expects it to live up to promises

  26. lizzie @ #1520 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 3:03 pm

    C@t

    I find it so frustrating that voters seem to agree with this furphy. Just like boasting about spending on something being the record highest. As the popn grows, all figures increase, even when the per capita spending goes down.

    But you watch Scott and Michaelia repeat it ad nauseum like it’s an achievement.

    Me? I’m just sitting here patiently waiting for things to go so pear-shaped in the economy that no amount of government spin will be able to cover up the obvious reality.

    I was speaking to a lady who owns a little upmarket recycled clothes shop today and she asked us in the Op Shop what sort of week we were having? We said it’s been very slow and I told her about the NAB paper that was released yesterday saying we are in a Retail Recession. She said, I think that’s right because I’ve just had my worst week ever! She doesn’t even think she’ll be able to make her rent this week.

    Businesses can’t keep going forever with the sort of discounting Big W and K Mart are doing to try and stay afloat, not to mention the effect of the internet on sales. Something’s gotta give and I don’t think that time is too far away.

    And this government won’t have a clue what to do about it.

  27. “If Labors vote ever stops bleeding you might have a point.”

    Labor is under attack from all side. Big George and the lnp pirates realise that the Greens attacks are the most potent of all in Queensland – Labor loses progressive votes to the Greens in the suburbs, while the perceived association with and attempted blackmail by the Greens kills Labor dead in the regions.

    There is little chance of stemming the slow bleeding of labor given the attacks from all sides, including by you Rexy (not that you are more than a piss ant’s fart, but you are emblematic of a wider malaise). You know you are up to no good and you rejoice.

  28. lizzie says:
    Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 3:03 pm

    C@t

    I find it so frustrating that voters seem to agree with this furphy. Just like boasting about spending on something being the record highest. As the popn grows, all figures increase, even when the per capita spending goes down.

    Yep, they’re meaningless numbers when taken by themselves.

    That the media give them any credibility for me is the real issue.

    If they chose not to regurgitate such crap and focused on what the real situation is, the general public wouldn’t be placed in a position to swallow it.

  29. C@tmomma @ #1526 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 3:04 pm

    lizzie @ #1520 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 3:03 pm

    C@t

    I find it so frustrating that voters seem to agree with this furphy. Just like boasting about spending on something being the record highest. As the popn grows, all figures increase, even when the per capita spending goes down.

    But you watch Scott and Michaelia repeat it ad nauseum like it’s an achievement.

    Me? I’m just sitting here patiently waiting for things to go so pear-shaped in the economy that no amount of government spin will be able to cover up the obvious reality.

    I was speaking to a lady who owns a little upmarket recycled clothes shop today and she asked us in the Op Shop what sort of week we were having? We said it’s been very slow and I told her about the NAB paper that was released yesterday saying we are in a Retail Recession. She said, I think that’s right because I’ve just had my worst week ever! She doesn’t even think she’ll be able to make her rent this week.

    Businesses can’t keep going forever with the sort of discounting Big W and K Mart are doing to try and stay afloat, not to mention the effect of the internet on sales. Something’s gotta give and I don’t think that time is too far away.

    And this government won’t have a clue what to do about it.

    I am just going to hunker down, stop spending on anything other than living expenses and watch everyone else suffer. A part of me will feel that is all they deserve after the ALP saved their arzes during the GFC and the public gave them no thanks for it. Now they have voted back in a destructive and clueless Coalition gov’t just as a recession hits. Beds made, lie in them and all. I might order a ‘Don’t blame me. I voted ALP,’ sticker for my car.

  30. lizzie says:
    Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 3:27 pm

    A vote of no confidence, I feel.

    Greg Jericho@GrogsGamut

    Oh how sweet.

    Queensland Premier tells Adani she expects it to live up to promises

    Seems like an admission that they have little ability to enforce compliance now the approval has been given.

    It certainly reinforces my reading of the approval.

    It certainly read as a document of hope.

  31. Lizzie:

    A vote of no confidence, I feel.

    Greg Jericho@GrogsGamut

    Oh how sweet.

    Queensland Premier tells Adani she expects it to live up to promises

    Adani presumably has obligations relating to cleanup, and these should be structured so as to survive future events.

    Adani (Global)’s abnormally high leverage and aggressive business model present a risk that it will all suddenly fall in a heap (Mr Adani himself seems to be a bit naive in relation to risk, which probably doesn’t help)

    How is Adani’s ability to honour its residual obligations preserved in the event of an adverse corporate event?

    Note that I’m interested in the real answer(s), not off the cuff remarks (whether or not referring to the structures in the Cayman Islands or equivalent): it’s rarely that simple.

  32. Seems like an admission that they have little ability to enforce compliance now the approval has been given.

    Perhaps she was referring to the job creation promises.

    I agree with you: more in hope than anything else.

  33. ‘Firefox says:
    Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 2:34 pm

    The Labor party stands condemned…’

    I sniff a Greens hack.
    Hint: Prime Minister Morrison can stop Adani any time he likes.
    Apart from that Di Natale has stated that the Greens are stopping climate change without leaving anyone behind.

  35. Do we all agree that the watcher sees most of the game?

    I mean, it’s obvious that “something should be done” before everything gets much worse, but those inside the govt seem to be sitting back and smiling complacently. They have such touching faith in a lower tax rate, but as C@t and I agreed some time ago, in order to benefit from lower tax, you need a good job to begin with.

  36. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1527 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 3:44 pm

    “If Labors vote ever stops bleeding you might have a point.”

    Labor is under attack from all side. Big George and the lnp pirates realise that the Greens attacks are the most potent of all in Queensland – Labor loses progressive votes to the Greens in the suburbs, while the perceived association with and attempted blackmail by the Greens kills Labor dead in the regions.

    There is little chance of stemming the slow bleeding of labor given the attacks from all sides, including by you Rexy (not that you are more than a piss ant’s fart, but you are emblematic of a wider malaise). You know you are up to no good and you rejoice.

    How can I be up to no good by calling out the two major parties who’ve put the environment in such great peril ..?

  37. I might order a ‘Don’t blame me. I voted ALP,’ sticker for my car.

    Sounds like a good business to keep supporting. 🙂

  38. Rex Douglas @ #1539 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:04 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #1527 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 3:44 pm

    “If Labors vote ever stops bleeding you might have a point.”

    Labor is under attack from all side. Big George and the lnp pirates realise that the Greens attacks are the most potent of all in Queensland – Labor loses progressive votes to the Greens in the suburbs, while the perceived association with and attempted blackmail by the Greens kills Labor dead in the regions.

    There is little chance of stemming the slow bleeding of labor given the attacks from all sides, including by you Rexy (not that you are more than a piss ant’s fart, but you are emblematic of a wider malaise). You know you are up to no good and you rejoice.

    How can I be up to no good by calling out the two major parties who’ve put the environment in such great peril ..?

    Because they aren’t in a Coalition government together? That is, unless you were meaning the Liberal Party and the Nationals. 🙂

  40. C@tmomma @ #1538 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:08 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1539 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:04 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #1527 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 3:44 pm

    “If Labors vote ever stops bleeding you might have a point.”

    Labor is under attack from all side. Big George and the lnp pirates realise that the Greens attacks are the most potent of all in Queensland – Labor loses progressive votes to the Greens in the suburbs, while the perceived association with and attempted blackmail by the Greens kills Labor dead in the regions.

    There is little chance of stemming the slow bleeding of labor given the attacks from all sides, including by you Rexy (not that you are more than a piss ant’s fart, but you are emblematic of a wider malaise). You know you are up to no good and you rejoice.

    How can I be up to no good by calling out the two major parties who’ve put the environment in such great peril ..?

    Because they aren’t in a Coalition government together? That is, unless you were meaning the Liberal Party and the Nationals. 🙂

    Lib-Lab are on a unity ticket re coal because their donors demand it.

  42. lizzie says:
    Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 4:03 pm

    Do we all agree that the watcher sees most of the game?

    I mean, it’s obvious that “something should be done” before everything gets much worse, but those inside the govt seem to be sitting back and smiling complacently. They have such touching faith in a lower tax rate, but as C@t and I agreed some time ago, in order to benefit from lower tax, you need a good job to begin with.

    Every watcher sees a different game.

    We all come with our own perspective of what’s important and what the goals should be.

    The same is true for the players and a danger for them is to not have fully considered consequences that fall outside their immediately game plan.

  44. a r @ #1534 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:03 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #1526 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 3:44 pm

    There is little chance of stemming the slow bleeding of labor

    Sure there is.

    1. Merge with the Greens.
    2. Write off the regions.
    3. Win the urban and suburban seats.
    4. After winning power, punish the regions for their insolence (optional).

    I think it’s just a case of sensible leadership that removes the barnacles that creates the self-wedge.

    A leadership team that can sell a policy might help too.

  45. Barney

    You mean the Libs have a game plan? ROFL. Oh, that’s right. I forgot. “Blame Labor”. That should fix everything.

  46. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 4:12 pm

    …

    Lib-Lab are on a unity ticket re coal because their donors demand it.

    Coal mining goes ahead because at this point in time the World demands it.

    How many Countries are you willing to destroy and how many people are you willing to ostracise for your warm fuzzy?

  47. 4. After winning power, punish the regions for their insolence (optional)

    They dont need to be punished. Have you tasted the quality of the lattes out there? Seen how limited the range of Chardonnay in the bottle shops? Drunk the QLD beer? Listened to their music?
    Mate, they are wallowing in a world of pain as we type.

  48. Rex Douglas @ #1544 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:14 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1537 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:07 pm

    I might order a ‘Don’t blame me. I voted ALP,’ sticker for my car.

    Sounds like a good business to keep supporting. 🙂

    That sticker is illogical given the actions of the Labor aligned Qld CFMMEU.

    Sorry, I didn’t get the memo that the rest of the Labor Party revolves around the Queensland branch of the CFFMEU. Could you forward it to me please? On a ‘need to know’ basis. 🙂

  49. Bill Scetrine@WScetrine
    3m3 minutes ago

    From the BBC: In Los Angeles, there are now 60,000 homeless people. They are living on the streets and under bridges. Typhoid Fever is rampant among them. The UN says, in some areas, the conditions are as bad as Syrian refugee camps. This is Trump’s America.

  50. Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #1546 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:25 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 4:12 pm

    …

    Lib-Lab are on a unity ticket re coal because their donors demand it.

    Coal mining goes ahead because at this point in time the World demands it.

    How many Countries are you willing to destroy and how many people are you willing to ostracise for your warm fuzzy?

    That’s about as logical as Australia supplying AR-15 bullets to America or weapons to Saudi Arabia.

    Oh wait …!

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