The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.
Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.
We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.
Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.
Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.
C@tmomma @ #1548 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:30 pm
Memo: Qld Labor signed off on massive thermal coal mining/exports.
Rex
The unions gave birth to the ALP!.
Would you disown your mother?.
your an idiot!.
lizzie @ #1549 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:30 pm
Bernie is their only hope.
1934pc @ #1552 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:35 pm
That analogy is a slight over-reach. 😆
lizzie says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 4:18 pm
They had a plan, low wages growth helping to maximise company profits.
Unfortunately, as many here have been highlighting, that means there is less money being pumped back into the economy, as it is at low income levels that this has been felt the hardest and those are the ones living from paycheck to paycheck.
That seems to have been the Government’s blind spot that it either discounted or failed to consider.
lizzie @ #1538 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:03 pm
You reminded me to go and re-read this outstanding article by Guy Standing:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-09/standing-the-precariat-is-you-and-me/3820486
I think it gives us an outstanding template by which to judge the mindset of the populace:
And it’s only gotten worse since 2012.
The US has released a video of what it says is an Iranian patrol boat removing limpet mines.
Some points to keep in mind:
1. Taking limpets off is not the same as putting limpet mines on. If the tanker is in Iranian ‘care’ then the Iranians should be taking limpet mines off.
2. The footage is blurry. Bludgers with any sort of a memory will recall the detailed footage of Iraqi truck drivers’ faces when they discovered that they were about to be immolated by US missiles. So, why blurry?
3. Two days ago we were being told by the US that the limpet mines had been attached by scuba divers. The ‘limpet mines’ ‘shown’ in the US video are at least a meter ABOVE the water line. Great leaping scuba divers.
4. Two days ago the US was asserting that the limpet mine attack was ‘sophisticated’. Limpet mines are unsophisticated and have been in use for at least three quarters of a century. They are basically a magnetically attached time bomb.
5. Crew of the Japanese ship initially reported that they saw ‘flying objects’ just prior to the explosions on their ship. Limpet mines are, by the nature, neither self-propelled nor capable of flight. One assumes that there were not referring to seagulls.
6. Bludgers with a longish memory will recall that one of the proximate reasons for Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait was the mixed messages he received from Bush. Trump is sending mixed messages.
7. The Iranians have now demonstrated how ridiculously easy it is going to be to blockade the Straits of Hormuz. The natural and artificial caves and tunnels that pock the Iranian side are stacked with munitions that can set a tanker on fire. The point is this: there is no need to sink every tanker. All that is needed is to send is to have such a credible threat that the insurance premiums go so high that shippers stop trying.
8. The Iranians are making no efforts to slow down the operations of their network of terror across the fertile crescent (that was).
9. The Saudis are making no efforts to slow down the slow massacre of millions of women and children in the Yemen.
10. Trump’s unilateral and abrupt decision to walk away from the Iran nuclear agreement and to follow it up with swingeing economic punishments may yet bear fruit. One such fruit might be a regional war between Saudi Arabia and Iran with Turkey possibly having a go while the other two are distracted. It would almost certainly send the price of oil zooming because a third of the world’s daily oil consumption comes through the Straits of Hormuz.
Rex Douglas @ #1554 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:35 pm
Now, in light of the election result, and making no reference to your eternal present where the election result never seems to have happened, can you please explain how, having held off approval of the Adani Mine for 9 years, both before and after the Newman government, the Queensland government could do anything else but what they have done?
There is never going to be a utopia which involves no Adani mine now, all the options for the Queensland State Labor government to hold it off have been exhausted.
But you go on living in La La Land, Rex Douglas, pretending that they could have done something. No doubt you’ll be dining out on it here for the life of that mine, won’t you?
The Coalition has two real aims: feed money into crony capitalists and sundry other clients and to destroy government, per se.
It follows that the Coalition has no real need to have an agenda other than to dismantle governance institutions, destroy faith in them, get rid of regulations, gut regulatory authorities and dismantle the APS. Other than that they will keep in place the rules in place that benefit their puppetmeisters while seeking to white ant anything that gets in their way.
So, we have an environment minister who wants to give more water to farmers when the environment needs it badly, to cut ‘green tape’, to gut the environment department’s capacity to monitor conditions put on project approvals by reducing staff further, and presumably to subsidize some spivs to build nuclear power stations. She is stupid enough, and certainly arrogant enough, to claim that she is ‘not sure’ that clearing leads to extinctions, so get ready for land clearing laws to be weakened and/or destroyed. Nothing she has said in any way might be read as supportive of the need for more regulation to protect biodiversity and a greater investment in genuine conservation measures. She belongs in the rich tradition of Hunt, Frydenberg and Price – all of whom excelled at fucking over the environment.
(Astute observers will have noticed that the Greens were not in the habit of criticizing any of the above three and they have yet to attack Ley. Of course the Greens are attacking Labor for Adani.
So that is BAU from the Greens.
At the moment all the Government has to do is quietly negotiate the $33 billion tax cuts for the filthy rich with the cross benchers.
This is all they are doing.
The notion that they intend to implement a comprehensive set of genuine economic reforms is absurd.
We have just elected a third rate marketer who flogged a second rate economy onto a largely unsuspecting public.
C@tmomma @ #1558 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:46 pm
They could’ve put a cap on thermal coal exports and forced Adani’s hand.
If it’s good enough for Glencore….
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 4:34 pm
You really are as dumb as you seem!
You remove all coal usage tomorrow, as you would like to, and many Country’s ability to function would be severely impacted.
That need for coal has to be maintained until they are able to replace it with alternate sources of power, as you well know.
Boerwar @ #1559 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:57 pm
With the Greens Party growing their vote and with any luck Albanese might restore credibility to the Labor brand and stop the bleeding, the L/NP maybe in it’s final term of Govt for a while.
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #1561 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:59 pm
Instead of setting an end date for thermal coal mining/export, Labor in fact promotes a continuing role for coal in our economy.
On my reckoning Labor has had 5 separate positions on Adani, there really needs to be a diagram:
Federal Labor: – in Victoria, opposed to the mine
Federal Labor: – In queensland , supporting the mine
QLD Labor : – Supporting the mine, then supporting the mine but opposed to financing the mine
QLD and Federal Labor: It just has to meet the approvals
Old and Federal Labor : Supporting the mine
Its very confusing.
As compared to the Greens who consistently always opposed the mine. Sadly under Littlefinger there was never going to be any sort of Franklin Dam type consistency for Labor.
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #1546 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:25 pm
What a joke. Coal prices are low because Australia exports its dreadfully dirty thermal coal for a pittance. If we stopped doing that, – or even just significantly reduced it – world coal prices would immediately rise to levels which made coal uneconomic to import just to burn.
Australia is culpable on global warming.
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #1561 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:59 pm
Which of course they won’t do as long as they can continue to buy our coal at rock bottom prices.
Are we getting a hint that Labor might pass the whole of the tax cuts through?
This is why they must not.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6215391/why-labor-and-the-senate-crossbench-should-block-coalitions-tax-package/?cs=14246 … via @canberratimes
‘With the Greens Party growing their vote …’
Sorry, what? By 0.17%?
This was linked by BK this morning but worth a look if you missed it.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/a-disorienting-sight-to-an-australian-how-the-uk-got-on-with-the-climate-change-challenge-20190614-p51xqf.html
Britain has been getting in with tackling climate change while Australia – let’s just say maybe climate change has been our Brexit. What the coal lobby and their political arm a.k.a. the Liberal and National parties is criminal, although there is no court that can or will convict them.
Also worth another look – Jim Pavladis in this morning’s SMH:
Maybe it could go on a T-shirt.
Lizzie and Pegasus
I’ve been away all day, so a late thank you for your comments this morning. And thanks Peg for the link about Pezzulo and the name of the interviewee, Professor Blaxland.
zoomster says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 5:17 pm
Well at that rate they’ll be up 12.1% in 10 elections time. 🙂
Steve777 says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 5:20 pm
This was linked by BK this morning but worth a look if you missed it.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/a-disorienting-sight-to-an-australian-how-the-uk-got-on-with-the-climate-change-challenge-20190614-p51xqf.html
Britain had been getting in with tackling climate change while Australia – let’s just say maybe climate change has been our Brexit. What the coal lobby and their political arm a.k.a. the Liberal and National parties is criminal, although there is no court that can or will convict them.
_____________________________________________
The absolute party dysfunction and cynicism re the environment by the ALP is the major reason we have not made similar progress in this country.
LVT @ 5:24PM “The absolute party dysfunction and cynicism re the environment by the ALP is the major reason we have not made similar progress in this country.”
What rot! Utter bullshit.
ALP partisans giving Greens shit for having a PV of 10.4 while the ALP PV sits at 33.3. Says it all really.
PTMD
In the car today we were station surfing and got onto a talk back …… actually one of the best, Poppy, who is on the Super Network (I think 2SM Sydney) on Saturday and Sunday. ( BTW …… an aside …….. Poppy is a lady of Greek background who IMHO along with Leon Delaney, John Laws’s fill in, are the 2 very best talk back comperes around ……. both of them politely accept no crap and always put pressure on stupids, and ask excellent follow up questions)
Anyway this dame phoned in and was ropable that Rudd got a gong. “What has he ever done?” I’m immediately thinking “he got rid of the rodent for a start …. that’s worth a gong” and also thinking about the GFC.
Like you, I couldn’t help thinking “bring on a recession, right on to your head lady “
The shame of Labor’s successful management of the GFC is that dickheads did not ever get to feel the pain they were saved from. Maybe Morrison will give them the chance.
Cheers
Come now Steve 777: –
Of course I forget :
The Kevin Rudd ETS “climate change” double dissolution election
The principled opposition by Labor to the Adani mine by Littlefinger. No ifs no buts no compromise
The Julia Gillard – no carbon tax under a government I lead line
There are many, many more example of this rank hypocrisy my friend.
zoomster @ #1571 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 5:17 pm
😆 😆 😆
And don’t forget, going backwards in Victoria! Or that Larissa Waters is the pipsqueak of the Senate now.
nath @ #1577 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 5:33 pm
Or about 3 times The Greens. 🙂
How’s the Victorian Greens vote going, nath, and those 3-4 Lower House seats you thought were a certainty? 🙂
Steve777 @ #1576 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 5:28 pm
In the era of Fake Views, this blog is filling up with them.
Hows the Shorten government going C@t? And I was hoping the Greens would pick up a couple more, I never considered it a certainty. But still, 11.9 in Victoria is pretty strong.
So on another front the seat needed for majority government by the ALP (assuming a 3.28% uniform swing) is Longman.
In the words of Billy Joel – we will all go down together.
Lets hope Albo can pull the show together and purge the defeatists, parasites and opportunists.
We have C@t and zoomster running down the greens. C@t is a supporter of the SDA and talks online about dirt on ALbo. Zoomster is a rural person who I suspect is actually more sympathetic to the Coalition than she lets on, she’s certainly more anti-Green than anti-liberal or national. No wonder the Coalition is doing well.
Yes the secret c@t dossier on Albo. I’d hate to see those fevered imaginings comprised of notes written on envelopes, stained McDonalds napkins and TV guides no doubt.
Big A Adrian says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 11:48 am
@briefly 10:54 – government stimulus spending on the environment and renewables would seem like a win-win for our tanking economy. I wonder what are the chances of that happening under this government.
Well, actually I don’t really wonder… sadly.
There are a lot of things that money should be allocated to – projects in health, education, transport, communications, energy, the environment generally and climate change adaptation in particular.
The dilapidated condition of public education is a grievous example. The public sector in general has been run down to an alarming extent. It will take many years to restore.
Labor should be committing itself to expanding the labour market and growing the economy by promising to invest, invest, invest….
nath
Incorrect. The local Greens regard me highly, I have a sound record when it comes to environmentalism (again, local Greens have apologised in the past for not giving me more support) and I’m regarded as ‘too Green’ by the Labor right.
The reason why we have no remotely effective plan to combat climate change is that climate action has been resisted at every turn by the Coalition parties, who have been captured by vested interests determined to prevent or delay climate action for as long as possible. In this the Coalition parties have been venal, mendacious and I would say corrupt, even if the legal definition of corruption has not been met. In fact I believe there are likely instances where the definition has been met, some of which will come to light in due course, maybe decades from now when the actors are beyond punishment.
LVT – I think that you are trolling.
Pegasus @ #1437 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 10:04 am
Lol.
I love how some people put so much effort into finding excuses for their failings. 🙂
nath @ #1586 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 5:42 pm
And you are a bullshit artist and a clown with nfi.
nath @ #1584 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 5:39 pm
I’d say by all measures, number of Lower House seats, numbers of Senate seats, number of State governments, that Labor is going better than The Greens. 🙂
Steve777 says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 5:47 pm
The reason why we have no remotely effective plan to combat climate change is that climate action has been resisted at every turn by the Coalition parties, who have been captured by vested interests determined to prevent or delay climate action for as long as possible. In this the Coalition parties have been venal, mendacious and I would say corrupt, even if the legal definition of corruption has not been met. In fact I believe there are likely instances where the definition has been met, some of which will come to light in due course, maybe decades from now when the actors are beyond punishment.
LVT – I think that you are trolling.
______________________
Steve777, the Coalition will always be the Coalition. It’s the failure of Labor under Littlefinger and RGR to offer a principled position that is the substantive reason for the failure to substantively address climate change.
Amazing how a few no-marks on a politics blog can dismiss out of hand all the Labor governments of recent times and their attempts doing the real job of politics so as to get action on Climate Change through a recalcitrant parliament, with a wave of an aetherial pixelated hand.
I think I can hear the sound of one hand clapping LvT.
Anyway, I’m off to watch Real Time with Bill Maher. Beats watching the nath-LvT toothless wonders trying to take bites out of me here.
C@t:
It’s the best Real Time I’ve seen in a while. Enjoy!
George F Will talked about this in his interview with Bill Maher today, and it is worth repeating as the first of the primary debates has now been scheduled in a couple of weeks.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/in-order-to-beat-trump-democrats-must-practice-modesty/2019/06/14/4ee266d2-8e03-11e9-adf3-f70f78c156e8_story.html?utm_term=.db729b32bd93
The Greens will form government perhaps only when the Reef is dead.
So it is well worth waiting another 30 years for.
Apparently we are experiencing a retail recession. The only solution it appears is give big tax breaks to the very well off in 5 years time.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/15/world/asia/hong-kong-protests-extradition-law.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Just out of curiosity, did our PM have anything to say about the proposed laws?
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 4:37 pm
lizzie @ #1549 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 4:30 pm
Bill Scetrine@WScetrine
3m3 minutes ago
…”From the BBC: In Los Angeles, there are now 60,000 homeless people. They are living on the streets and under bridges. Typhoid Fever is rampant among them. The UN says, in some areas, the conditions are as bad as Syrian refugee camps. This is Trump’s America.
Bernie is their only hope”…
Has the United States just this minute realised it has a chronic homelessness problem?
Or did all these people appear after Trump was elected?
It’s good to see so many are now posting in the wake of the election; but where are you GG?
I haven’t heard Morrison say anything significant about anything significant since the election. Then again, when you have no policies and generally no idea what can you say.