The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.
Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.
We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.
Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.
Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.
Poor Crankmomma, is jealous of us Victorians because we get to vote for real Labor governments, whilst she is forced to support the NSW right. She has my sympathy on that score.
Bob Brown and the Greens campaign against Adani.
Palaszczuk and Labor support Adani and are allowing it to go ahead.
Labor supporters on Pollbludger blame Greens for Adani.
This is the pathetic rabble that Labor has become. You lot are an absolute joke. If you’re not all having a good hard look at yourselves in the mirror after Labor’s woeful election effort then you’re doomed to repeat your epic failure.
“There is little chance of stemming the slow bleeding of labor
Sure there is.
1. Merge with the Greens.
2. Write off the regions.
3. Win the urban and suburban seats.
4. After winning power, punish the regions for their insolence (optional).”
______________
Your brain broke didn’t it?
Maybe you use Hockey’s eleventy calculator to add up.
There are 151 federal seats.
Labor faces the graspers and other ‘aspirationals’ in the cities and actually does pretty well in states with a big urban base and in the territories: it’s ahead over in break even territory in NSW, Victoria, SA, Tasmania, ACT and the NT.
It is being killed in the two large states with big regional areas and a voting population that is largely dependent on the fortunes of primary industries.
11 out of 46 seats in WA and Queensland combined and you ‘geniuses’ in The Greens and other urban warriors like Rex think it is a great idea to give ‘the regions’ an even bigger two finger salute. Why? So labor can actually lose seats in the Hunter? Maybe both seats in the NT? Maybe hand back a couple of seats in WA. What would it pick up in return?
Do you really think merging with the Greens return Cook, Hughes and now Banks to Labor? Or Reid? Or Robertson? Maybe Lindsay? FFS, this is fantasy land stuff. ar – have you, or Guytaur or any of you other flogs actually met people outside your bubble?
The only chance progressive politics has in this country is to make common cause? Punish folk in the regions? Force Greens ideology down the throat of folk in Lindsay, Robertson or only other other contestable urban fringe seats. You have just lost it. You represent a fantasy that is relevant to the demographics of about 20 seats. All of which are either in the Labor or Greens-Wilkie column already.
Isn’t it obvious – progressives need to find a way to take their ‘base’ from the mid to high 60 seats to well into the 70s. That means being relevant to the folk you currently hate. You simply don’t get it.
Boerwar:
[‘The Greens will form government perhaps only when the Reef is dead. So it is well worth waiting another 30 years for.’]
You seem very pissed off with the watermelons.
mikeh:
True.
One may have already been made, I just haven’t seen it, but I’d hope for a statement from the Australian govt about human rights abuses. It’s not as if Australia hasn’t had PMs who have chipped China on human rights previously. The country just laid one to rest only yesterday.
fess
The absence of such statement shows their total disregard for human rights, as does their support for whittling away at our own.
We seem to be throwing away a great many freedoms these days.
There are 30 seats in Queensland, the Tories having won 24 of them. If you want to form government, you must cater to this demographic. Elsewhere it matters little.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 4:46 pm
…”5. Crew of the Japanese ship initially reported that they saw ‘flying objects’ just prior to the explosions on their ship. Limpet mines are, by the nature, neither self-propelled nor capable of flight.”…
It was the crew of the other ship (not the one in the footage) who reported flying objects, the Guardian article is quite specific about this.
And the use of a surface to surface missile certainly does not preclude the concurrent use of a mine.
In fact, there are a number of clips on YouTube which show a swarm of Iranian Revolutionary Guard patrol boats with unguided missile barrages employing precisely this same tactic.
Further, Iran’s excuse that it could not possibly have carried out the attack because it wouldn’t do so while Shinzo Abe was in the country, sounds like the kind of bullshit my oldest son would come up with when busted doing something naughty.
This is not some kind of ridiculous Gulf of Tonkin conspiracy.
Firefox says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 6:27 pm
The Greens obviously aren’t into much self reflection.
The Green vote fell in Victoria, NSW, Tasmania and WA.
It rose in Queensland, the Territories and SA (where the Centre Alliance vote collapsed by more than 16%).
Not a lot to crow about.
mikeh:
Perhaps Morrison is simply taking his cues from Trump. The US hasn’t had anything to say about it either. But then again, Trump has already shown he has a great regard for murderous regimes and their leaders.
If Labor is to win Government it needs to win over 50% the vote either directly or by way of preferences. The same would apply to any future Labor-Green coalition. To get there, you need the votes of people who care more about their mortgage or their power bill than the Barrier Reef, climate change or “gender equity”. They also face opponents with deep pockets, minimal ethics and ownership of all the big megaphones.
Politics is the art of the possible. The choice is between:
– the power to achieve something, what is possible even if it is not everything we need or want.
– impotence (a.k.a Opposition).
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1600 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 6:27 pm
There’s basically nothing left to lose on that front anyways. And more than 76 seats in total that the AEC classifies as “urban”. And probably some additional along the outskirts of those that would count as suburban.
Labor already doesn’t win regional seats. With the exception of NT, which is unlikely to change in any case.
So yep, if saying “screw all those electorates that won’t vote for us anyways” is what allows Labor to get off the fence on things like climate and coal and run a policies that appeal more strongly to urban and suburban voters, that would be a hell of a lot better than the status quo.
Damn straight. The Liberals and the Nationals figured it out ages ago.
Clearly marked as optional. 🙂
But meh. If regional voters can force coal mining (and probably new coal-fired power stations) down the throats of everyone else who doesn’t want it, then there’s certainly nothing wrong with that street running both ways.
The Greens’ Senate vote increased from 8.7% to 10.2%. Were it not for the one-off of 2010, when they absorbed a protest vote from the dumping of Kevin Rudd, it would have been their best result ever.
I would also suggest that Iran is probably testing the waters in an attempt to ellicit a reaction, from which it can attempt to justify further escalation.
Playing the victim is fairly typical behaviour when you are losing.
Don’t be surprised if a U.S. destroyer isn’t forced to blow a couple of Iranian patrol boats out of the water in the next few days.
ar – you do realise that everything you just wrote would deliver, at best, exactly nothing in terms of seat gains for progressive politics.
You seem comfortable wth endless conservative governments. Just because. Purity? Some martyr fetish? What exactly?
Would you really prefer ScoMo and his cohorts to allow Gina and her cohorts an unfettered go at destroying what remains (which ain’t much as it is) of the natural heritage of this continent over the next 20 years, whilst simultaneously allowing the like of Maurice Newman and his cohort of business dead beats hold Australia back from developing the kind of dynamic economy we will actually need for the remainder of the 20th century because you are just too proud to break bread withfolk who go to work wearing hi-vis?
We have to be better than this level of petty elitism and obscurantism. Much better.
‘Not Sure says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 6:44 pm
Boerwar says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 4:46 pm
…”5. Crew of the Japanese ship initially reported that they saw ‘flying objects’ just prior to the explosions on their ship. Limpet mines are, by the nature, neither self-propelled nor capable of flight.”…
It was the crew of the other ship (not the one in the footage) who reported flying objects, the Guardian article is quite specific about this.’
Uh huh. The omniscient US military which probably has more sensors in and around and above the Persian Gulf than anywhere else on earth failed to report the flying objects.
‘And the use of a surface to surface missile certainly does not preclude the concurrent use of a mine.’
(1) Who said it did? (2) It was not one ‘surface missile’ that was reported. It was a number of flying objects.
‘In fact, there are a number of clips on YouTube which show a swarm of Iranian Revolutionary Guard patrol boats with unguided missile barrages employing precisely this same tactic.’
So now footage of previous training exercises are evidence of current use. Good luck with that logic.
‘Further, Iran’s excuse that it could not possibly have carried out the attack because it wouldn’t do so while Shinzo Abe was in the country, sounds like the kind of bullshit my oldest son would come up with when busted doing something naughty.’
False analogy. Iran is not run by Trump so there is no particular reason to think that they would go out of their way to piss off an important state like Japan. As for your son’s bullshit, the apple does appear to have fallen far from the tree.
‘This is not some kind of ridiculous Gulf of Tonkin conspiracy.’
It might be a false flag operation by the US, Saudi forces or the Israelis. It might be some form of ISIS-type operation designed to trigger a general Gulf conflagration, which would suit them very well. It might be a cock up. It might be renegade elements of the Revolutionary Guards. It might be a deliberate Iranian state-directed tactic designed to put the oil frighteners into the US. If you know which of all the above is true then you know more than the rest of us.
There are three things we know for sure
1. The US cooked up both the Gulf of Tonkin and WMDs when it needed a casus belli. The Trump White House is ethically capable of going down that route.
2. Players like Bolton (remind me, what is his job, again?) are exceedingly keen on a war with Iran. They have a problem. Most of the rest of the US is sick and tired of losing endless lives and treasure in Middle East Wars. Major provocation is needed to justify yet another war.
3. The management of details in the US messaging in relation to the limpet mines to date is quite riddled with contradictions, omissions, and mysteries. I have listed some, but by no means all, of these. In terms of US cred, at best this stuff is shoddy. At worst, it is being cooked up out of nothing on the run in order to trigger yet another war. Just like Tonkin ‘justified’ bombing of North Vietnam and just like the WMDs ‘justified’ killing over a million Iraqis, turning around 5-10 million into refugees, opening the Fertile Crescent to Iranian penetration, trashing the Iraq economy, and creating one of the preconditions for ISIS.
I repeat what I have said before: I don’t know what is happening.
“The Greens’ Senate vote increased from 8.7% to 10.2%. Were it not for the one-off of 2010, when they absorbed a protest vote from the dumping of Kevin Rudd, it would have been their best result ever.”
Go Greens!
The 10.2%ers now!
How good is that!!!
‘Not Sure says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 7:06 pm
I would also suggest that Iran is probably testing the waters in an attempt to ellicit a reaction, from which it can attempt to justify further escalation.’
That is a suggestion.
‘Playing the victim is fairly typical behaviour when you are losing.’
Iran was keeping to its side of the agreement not to build nuclear weapons. The US unilaterally broke from the Agreement for reasons that had nothing to do with building nuclear weapons. The US also unilaterally imposed punishing economic sanctions. There is no now reason at all for Iran not to resume the construction of nuclear weapons. Quite the reverse.
‘Don’t be surprised if a U.S. destroyer isn’t forced to blow a couple of Iranian patrol boats out of the water in the next few days.’
I would not be surprised at anything at all that happens in the Gulf. Your use of ‘forced’ shows that you think know all the facts and that you know that it is the Iranians and not the Saudis, the US or other players, for example, who are doing the provoking.
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 7:09 pm
“The Greens’ Senate vote increased from 8.7% to 10.2%. Were it not for the one-off of 2010, when they absorbed a protest vote from the dumping of Kevin Rudd, it would have been their best result ever.”
Go Greens!
The 10.2%ers now!
How good is that!!!’
After the last election Di Natale promised to form a Greens Government. After this election he stated that the Greens are stopping Climate Change while leaving nobody behind. He is young enough to have around 15 elections left in him. It could well be in 2022 that the Greens form government with 51% PPand fix everything that Labor has busted while in opposition.
One assumes that the Russians are getting ready to boost their arms exports to Iran.
Vlad must be wetting his pants at the thought that Russian oil and gas exports will become much, much more valuable if the Straits of Hormuz are closed to oil traffic.
Perhaps Russian Spetznatz put those limpets on the tankers?
When all’s said and done, astute observers should’ve known that Shorten would not meet muster; nor will Albanese, him having the look of the “Faceless Mean”. Labor should’ve gone for generational change – maybe Terri Butler, particularly as she’s a banana bender. Now, it’s not that she’s attractive – but I think KK would fit the bill, despite her being a senator, there being a precedent -Gorton, the three-month constitutional requirement.
The Israelis have been trying to figure out a way to inveigle the US into a war with Iran for decades.
It is well within the sophistication of Israeli forces to have delivered those limpets while pretending to be someone else.
As noted above. I don’t know what is happening. But I do feel disinclined to believe, at first blush, any of the players’ public statements.
MD
No one has satisfactorily explained how Labor is ever going to beat $600 million worth of lies.
clem attlee @ #1605 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 6:26 pm
My god, you just don’t do reasoned thought, do you?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1612 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 7:07 pm
The results of these election things can be difficult to predict in advance. A bunch of regional seats just swung really hard away from Labor despite Labor straddling the fence as hard as it could to keep them onside.
Perhaps if Labor makes a hard pitch for the sub+urban seats and leaves the Coalition to do the embarrassing fence-straddling act, those seats will swing really hard to Labor. Who knows?
Hardly. The left can’t win by fighting the left.
I also strongly doubt the left can win by pretending to be the right. My guess is that the QLD Labor government’s new coal-friendly persona is going to be an outright disaster for them at the polls. Time will tell.
The only path to victory that seems even remotely plausible is cooperating to take the fight to the right.
I don’t care what anybody wears to work. Or if they even work. The problem with the regions isn’t anything to do with socioeconomic status, it’s that they voted for coal (and/or against parties that opposed coal, or even ones that seemed to maybe kinda-sorta be thinking about opposing coal). That sort of regressive action is exactly what will prevent Australia from having the “dynamic economy we will actually need for the remainder of the 20th century”.
You can’t solve a problem by pretending that the people who are actively working to exacerbate it aren’t. If they want to stop doing that I’d happily break bread with them. In hi-vis vests, or street clothes, or no clothes at all. I’m easy.
Hmmm… unknown spokespersons abound!
Someone above remarked on the possibility of Houthi ‘rebels’. I had my doubts. But here they are chucked in… two thousand km from their current operating areas. Note claims of a successful and unsuccessful attacks on US military drones. These have not been officially been made public by the US. Did they happen at all? If they did happen who fired the missiles? Lots of mud, not a lot of clarity.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-forces-fired-missile-at-us-drone-before-tanker-sabotage-report/
William Bowe @ #1617 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 7:02 pm
*golf clap*
Mavis Davis @ #1599 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 6:21 pm
I miss ratsak. 🙁
GG might just be pissed off at the anti-religionists who abound on Bludger.
OTOH, GG might just be getting a life.
Boerwar,
I think your throwing the possibility of Israel into the mix wrt the attack on the oil tankers is the most plausible scenario to my way of thinking.
The question of the Greens’ performance was raised in the context of forming government, something they can’t do from the Senate.
Poor old Albo reminds one of those old the Labor apparatchiks. Folks in TV land need attraction, the rare & lovely Kristina and Terri fitting the bill.
‘zoomster says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 7:38 pm
The question of the Greens’ performance was raised in the context of forming government, something they can’t do from the Senate.’
Who says they need to form government? Di Natale has stated flat out that the Greens are stopping climate change. Present tense; active voice.
Confessions @ #1593 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 6:03 pm
Yes, it was. Thanks ‘fess for bringing it to us here every week. 🙂
I was fascinated with Overtime, which I watched also, and the panel’s judgement about who they thought should be the Democratic nominee. The Republican Conservative, George Will, honestly spoke and gave his vote to Elizabeth Warren. Martin Short gave his vote to Pete Buttigieg. I’d be happy with that pairing going into the contest. The Inspirational Orator and the Policy Wonk. 🙂
Mavis Davis @ #1632 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 7:43 pm
We just had the lovely Tanya as well. But apparently the electorate fell in love with the frumpy Mrs Morrison. 😐
Since the election, this blog has become a difficult place to be.
It was understandable for a couple of weeks, because everyone I know is completely traumatised – well except for my LNP voting friends, and they are just quietly happy.
I have a comment: The reason there is so much Greens / Labor argy-bargy is that the parties attracts different personality types, who have similar aims. Each parties supporters passionately believe that their party needs to be dominant on the left to achieve those aims. The (unfortunate but highly-predictive) research by Cambridge analytics has show that you can pretty clearly predict voting patterns by personality – I myself have the personality of a Lib-Dem academic, which is probably not surprising, and would fit more than a few in the ALP, and some small l liberals.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 7:07 pm
‘Not Sure says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 6:44 pm
Boerwar says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 4:46 pm
…”So now footage of previous training exercises are evidence of current use. Good luck with that logic”…
Well yes, actually, every military since the dawn of time has trained itself in such a fashion.
If I ever decide to start a war, you will not be invited to be part of my strategic development team.
I would, however, that I’m not being sexist, both KK and Terri being politically astute.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 7:19 pm
…”One assumes that the Russians are getting ready to boost their arms exports to Iran”…
You are an imbecile.
C@t,
I accidentally clicked on a Lifestyle article in the SMH, to find that designers this wear are putting the frumpy, “modest” look on there catwalk. Apparently there is money to be made from people who believe that the Handmaid’s tale is some sort of utopia!
I will see if I can find a link.
‘Firefox says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 6:27 pm
Bob Brown and the Greens campaign against Adani. ‘
Waste of time. Di Natale has announced that the Greens are stopping climate change. Now.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 7:19 pm
…”Vlad must be wetting his pants at the thought that Russian oil and gas exports will become much, much more valuable if the Straits of Hormuz are closed to oil traffic”…
Pray tell, how do you propose this might happen?
The Labor plurality is too low now for there to be any practical chance of a Federal Labor Government being formed any time in the foreseeable future. Were Labor to align itself with the Greens, its plurality would fall into the teens.
Essentially, the Right have won. They will now proceed to dismantle what remains of civil and political rights, the civilly-responsive structures in education, the labour market, business, taxation and social welfare.
The 2oth century is over. The organ that made modern Australia possible, the ALP and its affiliates in the industrial movement, are not able to defend their many great achievements. It’s over.
We have to think about the 21st century now. We are on the threshold of a very serious economic crisis. It’s possible this will be used by the Right to completely demolish the structures in social democracy and social justice that we have come to know and rely on. Many of these structures are already nearly defunct in any case.
I’m very afraid for the well-being of young Australians. They are in very grave trouble.
Not Sure, it may not be a “Gulf of Tonkin” incident but I watched Colin Powell live from the UN justifying the invasion of Iraq on photographic evidence. You could tell by his body language that not even he believed it, and as we know now it was bulldust. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to eventually find out that evidence of the Gulf of Oman Incident is just as flimsy.
Not Sure says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 7:53 pm
Boerwar says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 7:19 pm
…”One assumes that the Russians are getting ready to boost their arms exports to Iran”…
You are an imbecile.’
Your projection is such a give away.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/05/22/us-sanctions-russian-arms-makers-over-alleged-iran-n-korea-and-syria-dealings-a65685
Not Sure says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 7:55 pm
Boerwar says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 7:19 pm
…”Vlad must be wetting his pants at the thought that Russian oil and gas exports will become much, much more valuable if the Straits of Hormuz are closed to oil traffic”…
Pray tell, how do you propose this might happen?’
I thought you knew everything already.
C@t:
Glad you enjoyed it. I love watching genuine conservatives justifying their views. Whatever happened to intellectualism? Will was spot on that his party was captured by anti-elitisism, and you can see the same thing happening here with the coalition.
Another reason I enjoy Real Time is that the progressive panelists are unabashed in their sharing progressive views. There’s no need for balance, and no reason for liberals to hide their views lest conservative/reactionary panelists on with them take umbrage. We have nothing like it here in Australia’s media landscape.
The only plausible scenario for the Hormuz Strait being closed to shipping, is if it were clogged with the corpses of deceased Iranian National guard naval officers and the detritus of the sunken battleships of the Russian Pacific fleet.
On absent Bludgers, I’m surprised poroti hasn’t been around to comment on the tanker attacks.
Not Sure:
[‘You are an imbecile.’]
If you’re unsure of your position, as it seems, maybe you should return to MAFS.