Mopping up operations

Late counting adds some extra grunt to the backlash against the Liberals in wealthy city seats, slightly reducing the size of their expected winning margin on the national two-party vote.

The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.

Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.

We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.

Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.

Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,119 comments on “Mopping up operations”

Comments Page 29 of 43
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  1. On the article in BK’s wrap about the retail sector being in recession, it’s hard to miss, even here. Shops are closing left right and centre here, and there are so many empty shops around the place with a For Lease sign in the front. Retailers are mostly blaming online shopping though.

  2. Confessions @ #1401 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 8:28 am

    On the article in BK’s wrap about the retail sector being in recession, it’s hard to miss, even here. Shops are closing left right and centre here, and there are so many empty shops around the place with a For Lease sign in the front. Retailers are mostly blaming online shopping though.

    It’s also very much due to exorbitant rents being charged by greedy landlords, that keep going up and up and up!

  3. Automated trucks have been operating at some of WA’s biggest mines for more than a decade and the Autohaul is the next step in the march toward taking as many humans away from risky mining operations as possible.

    This path has drawn constant criticism from unions who say mining companies are placing profits over people in their ruthless pursuit of efficiency.

    Rio Tinto’s longest round trip is to its Hope Downs 4 mine. It takes about 46 hours.

    Autohaul means there’s no more need to swap drivers on the journey.

    “Collectively we save an hour on average in cycle time, that is the most significant part of the business case initially for Autohaul.”

    Ironically the software used by Autohaul has been informed by Rio Tinto’s best train drivers, but Mr Vella is quick to point out the project has not meant any job losses.

    The company still had drivers stationed throughout the network to respond to faults, move trains when they go through yards and drive them on non-Autohaul lines.

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/no-more-training-wheels-rio-tinto-launches-world-s-biggest-robot-20190614-p51xxj.html

  7. It’s also very much due to exorbitant rents being charged by greedy landlords, that keep going up and up and up!
    ____
    C@t
    It’s got all the signs of the Cost Accounting Death Cycle.

  8. Having seen off the Shorten reform plan, the conservative government cannot sit on its policy hands for three years, falling back on the position that keeping Labor away from Treasury is enough.

    After nearly three decades of uninterrupted economic growth, Australia is back where it was in 1983: in desperate need of economic reform. Bob Hawke defeated a do-nothing conservative government and through bold policy settings breathed life into a sagging economy. It was a turning point for our nation.

    We are at a turning point again. But is there the political will on either side to recognise the challenge, meet it head-on and deliver what Australia needs? I doubt it.
    …
    After his come-from-behind win on May 18, Morrison has authority, political capital and perhaps popularity too. His problem is he’s a marketing man, not a policy wonk, and passionate only about his faith, family and staying in power — a traditionally conservative approach.

    Australia may find such a leader comforting. But it’s not what we need in the current economic climate.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/team-morrison-must-do-more-than-sit-on-its-policy-hands/news-story/fb4803c196ec6d1b55932726320e226b

  9. Morning bludgers

    Daughter who is doing her masters in renewable energy etc, reminded me last night that there are countless more jobs to be had in this sector than coal.

    Since she has returned from Germany to the re elected Coalition govt, she is feeling a tad disappointed with the direction of this place.
    Of course I feel the same. Sigh…..

  10. It was inevitable. Rents too high, and property values the same.
    And with online retail taking a bigger chunk, it was always going to catch up with them. And add the fact that the only area being cut was wages, what did they think was going to happen.

  12. Morning all. BK, Cat, yes retail rents in Australia have been amongst the highest in the OECD for a long time. It is a broken market. Buildings are valued at a multiple of the rental charged, even though they cannot be 100% occupied at that rental. So building owners and banks do not have to admit to each other that their commercial loans are under water. Like house prices, retail rents and property values should be falling.

    This is yet another of the many banking and commercial areas that needed reform but have seen no action since the end of the RC. Propping up these false values does no good to the economy. Lower retail rents might help preserve more retail jobs and make it easier to establish new businesses in the now empty shop fronts. The margin between retail and commercial is so great that nobody wants to let them as commercial, even though that might be more sensible.

    So we need reforms of Federal banking rules (on how banks are allowed to value assets) and state tenancy laws, to get this sector of the economy moving. Anyone remember what happened to the former SA State bank due to overpriced commercial property it invested in?

  13. Train drivers in the Pilbara are called Koalas by the other workers. They are a protected species. They have the best conditions both in working and housing. I was told they are on more than $250k p.a.

  14. Victoria says:
    Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 8:59 am
    I much prefer the coalition to be holding the can for this anaemic economy.
    _____________________________________________
    Classic defeatist attitude. Hopefully Albo purges surrenders like you out of the ranks of the party!

  15. Where are the Greens?

    Australia’s economy is suffering significant economic headwinds and the surplus is in danger.

    Yet the Greens remain silent. They should be shouting their criticism of Labor for allowing this to happen.

  16. lizzie says:
    Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 7:49 am
    Josh Frydenberg says a surplus more important than stimulus despite weakening economy. He also says that it’s not his fault, it’s because of global head winds.

    Meanwhile, Senator Cormann indicated he would not do a deal with Centre Alliance senators or Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, arguing the Government had a mandate after its election victory.

    There’s no good reason to run a surplus in the context of a faltering economy. Aside from this, the budget could be expanded and still remain in surplus if taxes on high income earners were increased. An expanded budget would arrest the deterioration in the economy. Really, by failing to change their fiscal settings, the Liberals are placing the interests of some of their base ahead of the interests of voters in general.

    We can say the current recessionary conditions in the economy have political causes. We already have a recession in WA – a recession driven by political considerations rather than by economic decisions.

  17. Victoria

    It is the same for many areas. Propping up coal mines and power plants is costing tens of thousands of people jobs in constructing, operating and managing the alternatives. Not to mention the exorbitant power prices all pay in the broken power market. All to preserve a tiny number of over paid positions in coal. I say overpaid because the risks involved in open cut coal are far less than they were in underground operations, but nobody wants to tell a “battler” on $150k+ that they are lucky to be being paid double what other workers get. Labor should oppose what has been done to block action on renewables.

    I cannot describe my disappointment at the cave in by Qld Labor in approving Adani. Best case, if it goes ahead it will only succeed by robbing other workers of their existing jobs in the Bowen basin and Hunter. And it will destroy many jobs in farming and reef tourism. By trying to placate the far right in North Qld, Qld state Labor has cost Australia another three years of Morrison, and Who knows what damage to the planet.

    The outright corruption in the Adani project should have been exposed, not pandered to.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/14/adani-it-all-looks-dodgy-as-hell-and-none-of-it-has-been-explained-properly

  19. Socrates

    Best case, if it goes ahead it will only succeed by robbing other workers of their existing jobs in the Bowen basin and Hunter.

    Joel Fitzgibbon has been crowing loudly about the ‘success’ of Adani and the future of coal mines. All part of his joy at holding his seat and nothing else, I suppose.

  21. Socrates

    Yep. I am not holding my breath for the Morrison govt to have an epiphany and deal with putting forward reforms in the economy

  23. Adrian @7.15am

    Quite correct.

    Dastyari being a case in point. Since him many Coalies have been involved in unconscionable financial rorts, they are still there and some like Stuart Robert and Sussan Ley are in cabinet.

    Remember Randall from WA who went to N Qld on “electorate business” and happened to buy real estate there on that visit.

    Going to ground, refusing interviews, refusing to answer questions is a super skill of the Coalies. Witness the past election campaign …… hiding pretty well all the ministry for 3 or 4 weeks. The MSM starved of Coalie interviewees (and their inevitable stuff ups at interview a la Price, which creates a bit of controversy for tomorrow’s “news”) devote all their efforts to Labor this, Labor that, ad nauseum. Just as is happening with the Setka matter.

    And the Labor machine squabbles on publicly, feeding the media.

  24. Adani (written before final approval was granted):

    https://theconversation.com/if-the-adani-mine-gets-built-it-will-be-thanks-to-politicians-on-two-continents-118043

    But such a purely financial analysis ignores the political forces driving the development of the coal industry in both India and Australia.
    :::
    In my recent book, Adani and the war over coal, I outline a network of power that for several decades has promoted the development of Australia’s coal resources in the interests of national and international corporations.
    :::
    The Adani saga points to a critical flaw in the Paris climate agreement. It is an agreement between nation states, but what those states do is often determined by arrangements between politicians and private companies that feel no particular obligation to keep global warming to less than two degrees.

    We are pawns in a larger, climate-destroying game.

  27. ‘Adani and the War Over Coal’ by Quentin Beresford published 2018

    https://www.newsouthbooks.com.au/books/adani-and-coal-wars/

    Coal is the political, economic and cultural totem for debates about climate change. Yet Australian politicians have had a love affair with coal, which has helped lock our politics – and our country – into the fossil fuel age.

    This searing book takes apart the pivotal role of the Adani Carmichael mine in the conflict over coal. We see the rise of a fossil fuel power network linking mining companies, mining oligarchs, the big four banks, right-wing think tanks, lobby groups, the conservative media and all sides of Australian politics. On the other side, we have one of the biggest social movements ever seen in Australia in the form of #StopAdani uniting to try to save the Great Barrier Reef, native title rights and to fight the corrupt politics of coal.

    Looking into the social, environmental and economic elements of this big fight, as well as the background of Gautam Adani himself, this book tells the full story of one of the lightning rod issues of our time.

    ‘With his sharp insights, Beresford’s rich documentation and exposition of events prosecute the extent to which Australia’s major political parties have become a revolving door between government and resource corporations…Whatever it is that impels individuals to finally draw a line in the sand and take action against corruption, it is time for these diverse, brave stories to be told.

  29. On Setka:

    I’m not going to presume to know how this whole thing is going to play out in the broader electorate. I’ve come to find that my predictions how an issue will go down with the public tend to be totally incorrect.

    At first glance, it does seem as though Albanese acted without ensuring he had the full facts at his disposal – an example of the less-than-stellar political judgement that made me wary about him becoming leader in the first place. On the other hand, a protracted, messy, public fight with the CMFEU – even one instigated on false premises – may actually wind up working in Labor’s favor. Or it could be a total disaster for all concerned. These things always seem so much more obvious in hindsight.

    On the upside, we’re about as far away for the next election as its possible to be right about now – if there’s going to be a massive internal shitfight or if the opposition leader is going to turn out to be complete dud, it might as well be now. (And before I get harried as a concern troll and a bedwetter and a closet liberal by certain hyper-partisan psychopaths, I’ll note that I’m not saying Albanese *is* a dud – while I have concerns about his handling of the Setka affair, I’ve otherwise been quite impressed by his performance so far – just that if he *does* implode as leader, its better that it happens while there’s still plenty of time for someone to replace him and repair the damage.)

    I do agree that the domestic violence charges and Setka’s general conduct as leader in recent history do strike me as more appropriate reasons to call for his resignation than the alleged comments about Batty, no matter how disgraceful they may have been, and it seems an avoidable own goal to have focused on the latter, especially in light of what’s been coming out since.

    On whether Setka’s behavior is better or worse than that of certain politicians or individuals in the private sector, I think that’s somewhat irrelevant, at least from Labor’s perspective. Yep, it is rather hypocritical and unfair, but that’s the reality of being a public figure on the centre-left in modern day Australia. Best approach is for Labor to sort out its own ranks, so it is free to ruthlessly go after the indiscretions of those on the other side. As with Sam Dastyari’s downfall, saying “But… but… Peter Dutton! Stuart Robert! Banking executives!” isn’t really an argument. The fact that the conservatives are able to get away with this stuff with such immunity is precisely why Labor needs to be as clean as possible, so that they can rise above the deck stacked against them and throw people like that from office.

  30. Very interesting interview by Hamish, filling in for Geraldine this morning on ABC RN, about Pezzulo (sp ???) ……. “who is this man Pezzulo?”

    My interpretation of the very interesting and very diplomatically stated answer was that the answer confirmed Keating’s recent views about the “security” sector being run by nutters.

    Pezzulo entered the PS straight out of uni in 1987, and has spent all his time in “security” related areas …. defence, foreign affairs, etc etc. (as opposed to working in social policy areas)

    The interviewee described him thus.

    Imagine a 3 circle Venn diagram with overlap of all 3 in the middle. The circles are China / America implications and issues, terrorism refugees etc, and climate change. Pezzulo “lives” and has only “lived” in the centre overlap which was described as “a very dark space”. This is and has been his world for decades.

    In the opinion of the interviewee, Pezzulo (a strong willed, energetic, talented and skillful man) is committed to an extreme “security” view of the world such that he has unabashed-ly pushed the boundaries of power exercised by non elected people to their very limits. It’s as if he doesn’t see, or care to recognise these limits, their origins and their purpose.

    Hence he sees no issue in phoning senators to give them a bit of stick if they speak against Home Affairs.

    Seems to be an excellent fit as Dutton’s man.

    Although not once did the interviewee directly say that Pezzulo is this, or Pezzulo is that, the message was quite clear that he sees Pezzulo as some kind of unacceptable maverick, or as PJK would say, a nutter.

  31. Pegasus

    Thanks for the link to the Guardian.

    No doubt Labor is in danger of seriously self wedging on the Setka matter as the article points out.

    The last sentence is sage ……. The July 5 national Labor executive meeting will decide on Setka’s expulsion. Whatever is decided, the broader political issues will not easily subside.

  33. On Setka, I have not read the details, but simply for being a distraction from an appalling lack of policy or economic management from the Morrison government, he is doing Labor no favours. He should shut up and stick to protecting his union’s members or get out.

  34. psyclaw

    No doubt Labor is in danger of seriously self wedging on the Setka matter as the article points out.

    I was going to provide that excerpt re “wedge” but you know the usual suspect or two would have had conniptions about my “selective cutting and pasting”, as if no one else including themselves don’t do it.

  35. Mallee has just been declared, so all 151 seats are now done. Still waiting on the 2pp for Farrer for the final national 2pp.

  38. One final point on the need for reform – building regulations. This problem has the zero regulation Liberal party’s name all over it. The past decade has seen a disastrous roll back of inspection and regulation regimes in many sectors in Australia. Buildings, cars and transport infrastructure are three I am familiar with. We often build low quality buildings, roads, light rail lines and import cars that would not meet safety standards in Europe. Clearly the market does not solve this. We need proper engineering and technical standards to control all of these things. We do not have them. The bodies that are supposed to give them to us are so under resourced they might as well not exist.

    Now a second Sydney residential tower is being evacuated with cracking found in a transfer (load bearing) beam. Time for a class action. Shame Gladys, shame.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-14/mascot-building-evacuated-after-cracks-found/11212816

  40. Socrates @ #1434 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 8:01 am

    On Setka, I have not read the details, but simply for being a distraction from an appalling lack of policy or economic management from the Morrison government, he is doing Labor no favours. He should shut up and stick to protecting his union’s members or get out.

    Breaking the law and behaving like an all-round bovver boy thug isn’t helping his cause either.

  41. Andrew Laird
    This is Australia’s largest solar and battery farm

    “Minister (@LilyDAmbrosioMP) said it was crucial during Victoria’s heatwave when a lot of the older energy sources, like the Loy Yang power station in the Latrobe Valley, struggled to function”

    It is also useful (hey, coal-lovers) to read the local effects.

    Manager for economic development at the Gannawarra Shire Council, Roger Griffith, said the project was great for the small town of about 4,000 people.

    “If you look at the positive profile of renewable energy around Kerang, it’s probably a much more positive profile than the town had 25 years ago,” he said.

    During the construction phase of the project about 180 people were employed for 10 to 12 months.

    “Just the food and provision that the workers consumed while they were working on site, it was in the tens of millions of dollars,” Mr Cole said.
    …
    In addition, the project has attracted a number of other businesses to the region.

    “We have planning permits in pace for eight large-scale solar farms,” Mr Griffith said.

    “This is the first, the second one is under construction, and the other six are at various stages of development.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-14/australias-largest-solar-and-battery-farm-opens-in-kerang/11209666

  43. lizzie

    There is lots of positive stuff happening powered by local communities and diverse grassroots movements. It is important to focus on the ‘little picture’ so as not to sink into despair about the ‘bigger picture’.

    Never give up advocating for the change you want to see happen!

    Earthworker Cooperative:
    https://earthworkercooperative.com.au/

    Earthworker Cooperative brings together people from diverse backgrounds in practical action to solve the social and environmental problems faced by communities and the planet. We provide common ground where trade unionists, environmentalists, small business people and others work together in common cause.

    Our goal is to establish a network of worker-owned cooperatives committed to sustainable enterprise throughout Australia. We believe social and environmental exploitation are intertwined, and that the problems of climate change, job insecurity and growing inequality must be tackled simultaneously, through greater grassroots economic ownership.

    Earthworker’s pilot project is the establishment of Australia’s first worker-owned factory, making renewable energy appliances and components. Located in the heart of Victoria’s Latrobe Valley, the Earthworker Energy Manufacturing Cooperative (formerly Eureka’s Future) is part of ensuring a just transition for communities affected by the move from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy.

    Earthworker’s second worker-cooperative is the Redgum Cleaning Cooperative – offering green-cleaning services in Melbourne today!

  44. Confessions
    I have avoided reading a lot of news since the depression induced by ScoMo’s reelection. I only just read up that Setka had actually been charged. That changes everything. Yes he must resign in that case.

    Have a good day all.

  46. Steve777

    It wouldn’t really matter who interviews Dutton, he’s on a PR offensive. I fear we may even see him smiling in the interview. 🙁

  47. Just had a two day satellite internet outage. Thanks, NBN!

    Australia: A first world country dedicated to achieving third world status 🙁

  50. Steve777

    I gather they’ll take turns – two or three of them.
    Thinks – seems to me that Crabb is often asked to step in when they have a sudden gap to fill.

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