The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.
Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.
We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.
Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.
Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.
One final thing on Setka: I basically agree with the points Mexicanbeemer was making earlier on professionalism. Its possible to be a hard-ass who fights tooth and nails for those you represent while still being totally professional. Setka’s aggressive conduct – which has included publicly threatening to kill “scabs” – ultimately undermines his own cause.
I’ve no doubt that industries like construction need firm, fearless reputation to protect the interests and, yes, lives of workers in what can be a very dangerous field of work. And, yes, I do understand the anger that comes from people being endangered by lax regulations and negligent employers – and as Setka’s own father was a survivor of a particularly awful industry accident, I can see why this sort of thing arouses such passions in him. But if, as could well happen, the CFMMEU is de-regestered and the Coalitions future electoral chances bolstered as a result of Setka’s behavior, the losers are ultimately those very workers.
The recession we are entering is the product of 20-odd years of Liberal policies – policies in the economy, the environment, climate change, energy, social support, education and training, taxation, banking and trade.
Once recession takes hold here, because of the levels of indebtedness in the household sector and the exposure of banking to the land-and-housing bubble, it will be difficult to avert a slide into a very deep contraction. The only device available to avert this is the Federal budget. But the Liberals will not use it. We will truly be able to say this is a Liberal Recession.
The truth seems to be they will welcome it.
National security as an excuse for Press raids.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/15/hes-a-maverick-why-new-england-kept-the-faith-with-barnaby-joyce?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Because locals felt he was targeted by ‘outsiders’. 😮
@briefly 10:54 – government stimulus spending on the environment and renewables would seem like a win-win for our tanking economy. I wonder what are the chances of that happening under this government.
Well, actually I don’t really wonder… sadly.
Albanese has done more to divide the labour movement this week than anyone else. Instead of focusing on the upcoming court appearance by Setka to face charges that have, in large part, been reported in the media this week he decided to concentrate on trumped up allegations published in the Age and based on unidentified sources.
Albanese put on his hard man hat and declared he would demand the expulsion from the labor party of Setka based on the Batty allegations and that his demands had nothing, I repeat nothing, to do with the charges Setka will answer to later this month. This approach was flawed from the start given the basis of the Batty allegations and the lack of any confirmation from anywhere that the allegations were in fact accurate. Within 48 hours two union officials who were at the Setka conference made public declarations that the Batty allegations were bullshit. Over the rest of the week the Age did not produce any evidence to support their allegations and nothing from any other media outlet either. By the end of the week McManus herself called out the allegations as incorrect. This story could have quickly died but because of the Albanese intervention the media jumped on the division in the labour movement angle and on it went. If Albanese had the intention to damage the labour movement then he had been hugely successful.
On the other hand Sally McManus has been calm, considered and very very focused on process rather than chasing headlines. She has concentrated her argument for Setka to stand down on his upcoming court appearance and the confirmation from Setka that he would plead guilty to at least two of the charges. This approach and the call from McManus for Setka to stand down has been widely supported by the broader union movement. Not the alleged and unproven Batty allegations but the real charges Setka will face and charges the meat of which have already been made public.
Setka should go once he pleads quilt later this month. No doubt in my mind. But the actions of Albanese this week have divided and damaged the union movement, empowered the government and its media supporters to reignite their attacks on the labour movement, encouraged Setka and his supporters to hang on and torpedoed the attempts by McManus and others behind the scenes to make the Setka removal as low key and free of drama as possible.
Albanese could have worked with McManus and presented a united approach to “ clearing out the bovver boys “ from the union movement but, for whatever reasons intentional or otherwise, he has fu**ed the whole thing up.
Adani uses dodgy tax havens in the Cayman Islands to hide assets and revenue. 13 of the 26 Adani subsidiaries registered in Australia are ultimately owned in the Cayman Islands. Companies who pay their taxes don’t register themselves in the Cayman Islands.
_____
So they’d pass the Coalition muster then?
BK
Definitely Coalition favourites for ‘having a go’.
Good business hardheads.
MMT scholars such as Bill Mitchell, Steven Hail, Warren Mosler, and Stephanie Kelton, who have researched bond markets in great depth, favour the abolition of currency issuer bond issuance, saying that it is not necessary and merely serves to obscure how government financing operates, and that it serves as a form of corporate welfare.
Warren Mosler’s book Soft Currency Economics is available online for free.
All four of these people are very responsive to emails as well.
bill.mitchell@newcastle.edu.au
warren.mosler@gmail.com
steven.hail@adelaide.edu.au
stephanie.kelton@stonybrook.edu
3 + years of this seflish denialism ahead, i am dreading it.
Will start on two fronts:
1. Abetz etc will use Setka as a reason to attack on industrial relations.
2. The Coalition’s tax package will be grouped together ie low / middle income earners will not receive theirs without the high income earners getting theirs. (Labor needs to argue affordability not class).
Scary times ahead both socially (conservative ‘faction’will feel emboldened) and economically (dry ‘faction’ will also feel they have the right to cut cut cut)
Oz: Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, Adelaide and every Australian region outside southeast Queensland has been told they are effectively barred from ever bidding for an Olympics following the International Olympic Committee’s decision to always hold the Summer Games in July-August.
The 1956 Melbourne Games were staged from November 22 to December 8 and the 2000 Sydney Olympics from September 15 to October 1, but this latest ruling means such Games can never happen again. There is no question the two capitals have the capacity to stage the Games again, and indeed re-hosting the Olympics has become exceptionally trendy.
Next year’s host city, Tokyo, also held the Games of 1964, while Paris and Los Angeles, the cities that will follow in 2024 and 2028, will be holding the Olympics for the third time.
But while Sydney and Melbourne have a sufficiently large population, and the sporting and general infrastructure to stage future Games, they have been disqualified by their winter climate in July-August. The change was dictated by giant American television network, NBC, which is the major sponsor of the IOC.
Every four years up to 2032 the network will pay $US2.3 billion to the IOC — about 40 per cent of its total revenue — just for the domestic US right.
Nicholas, it really isn’t a great idea to post email addresses on a publicly searchable forum like this one.
doyley:
I think that yours is a reasonable critique, but I don’t think you can conclude categorically that Albanese is without evidence regarding the alleged Batty comments. The matter goes before the National Executive on July, 5, at which Albanese’s evidence will be produced. If it only amounts to hearsay, his credibility will suffer. I would add that I’m not completely au fait with this matter.
The media salivating in NSW.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/labor-in-turmoil-as-leadership-battle-between-mckay-and-minns-set-to-come-to-a-head-20190613-p51xhc.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1560563688
A question for Western Australians with something to do with the CFMMEU
I am doing a little FIFO at the moment and spending today wandering around Perth
Opposite Patliament is Solidarity Park dedicated to the union movement with a heavy CFMMEU presence. There is a wall dedicated to workers killed in industrial accidents with plaques for the mainly young men who were killed. This is quite poignant
However one of the plaques is a copy of the 1916 Declaration of the Irish Republic complete with the IRA symbol of the Easter Lily (not the Irish Citizen Army symbol of the Starry Plough which was associated with the Union movement)
This seems highly incongruous – what’s it doing there
However one of the plaques is a copy of the 1916 Declaration of the Irish Republic complete with the IRA symbol of the Easter Lily (not the Irish Citizen Army symbol of the Starry Plough which was associated with the Union movement)
This seems highly incongruous – what’s it doing there
_____________________
Pretty simple really. As Australian of Irish descent made up a large part of the Australian working class, there had long been a sympathy for the IRA cause in certain sections of the Australian union movement. I remember in the early 80sin Melbourne, my uncle who was involved in the union movement in Victoria fundraising and hosting a couple of Irish boys who were in need of some ‘holidays’.
That is all very well but the Easter Rising has very little to do with Australian Unionism and the victims of industrial accidents
Give the dog a bone, doyley. If you don’t want to entertain any other interpretation but your own wrt the Rosie Batty/John Setka incident, then you’re not worth wasting time on any more.
Well it was put there in 2012 for some reason:
http://monumentaustralia.org.au/themes/government/dissent/display/97955-1916-irish-easter-rebellion
Confessions @ #1445 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 10:19 am
That is quite an old photo of Peter Dutton. This more recent one would be better:
Because I didn’t know what the Easter Rising was, I googled it, and came up with this:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/anzacs-easter-rising-and-the-20160317-gnl5oo.html
Apparently some Australian soldiers shot some of the Irish rebels.
The 1916 commemoration in Perth WA is being hosted by Friends of Sinn Féin but comrades from other republican groups will be in attendance too. The assembly point is Solidarity Park, opposite the State Parliament, at 1pm, when a plaque will be unveiled as a monument by the Australian working class to the dead of 1916.
I guess its got to do with all the recent Irish migrants to Perth?
Setka wistfully ruminating on a loss of men’s rights due to anti DV measures, might be just considered “a little off”, perhaps even “worthy of debate” etc if it wasn’t for his own DV problems and his leadership position in a male dominated industry that could sorely use some leadership on DV issues. That alone should be enough for him to fall on his sword for the greater good.
That’s before one considers the real politik of the conservatives in government, industry and media desperate to weaken Labor politically and industrially: with their favourite punching bag being the CFMMEU. McManus is right to point out that no one in the movement is bigger than the movement. Albo is right to move against Setka.
I also think that given the pivotal role that Setka plays in keeping the cross factional Victoria power base that has sustained Shorten that Albo has a keen interest in undermining this, even if it may weaken Dan Andrews grasp on the Victorian machine at the same time. Win. Win.
Some of you may recall that about six weeks ago I had an operation. Surgeon very efficient, all seemed to go well. However, when I went back for an after-op checkup, he didn’t seem at all interested in my scars, or the effect of the valve in my head. He just went into a rather hectoring lecture about the need for exercise to prevent my ‘slow descent into a nursing home’.
‘What exercise will you be doing?’ he asked.
‘Walking,’ I replied.
‘No, no,’ he remonstrated. That won’t do anything for your core strength. You must set yourself goals, such as climbing a tower, and when you have succeeded in that, set higher goals.’ Then he proudly showed me a little app on his phone that measures actual age against healthy age, when various parameters are entered (BP, BMX, heart rate, etc) and said, ‘You see? When I began exercising three months ago my age was 47, but now my healthy age is only 43.’
Quite apart from the fact that there are other reasons why I shouldn’t attempt to climb towers, and brisk walking around a 4-acre sloping block is a high enough goal at present, I wish I could draw this article to his attention.
https://elemental.medium.com/the-case-for-walking-431b82f1eaa9
doyley @ #1454 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 11:51 am
…and here I was thinking Labor partisans would be pleased with Albanese removing the barnacles
Seems the Labor right are going to undermine Albanese at every opportunity , effectively supporting the Govt.
apologies if this has been linked already
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/environment-minister-floats-lending-murray-darling-environmental-water-to-farmers-20190614-p51xsf.html
Ley floats ‘lending’ water – the comments are uniformly negative and almost laughing at her.
Briefly, ‘We will truly be able to say this is a Liberal Recession.’
Rubbish, it is all the fault of Labor. They have created this recession while being in opposition for six years.
Do not dispair, Di Natale will fix it after the 2021 election when the Greens sweep into power.
Rex, fixed it for you.
Seems the Greens are going to undermine Albanese at every opportunity , effectively supporting the Govt.
It would be very depressing to gather the numbers of everyone who has been sent into an emotional/health crisis because of the policies of the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison govt.
What happens when I borrow water and can’t pay it back? Will I become insolvent?
Cat,
My post was not a attempt to hop on the Batty allegation treadmill, I will leave that to others.
Read my post. All week McManus has concentrated on the upcoming Setka court case and statement from Setka that he will plead guilty to already published charges. Those charges are not in dispute and the fact Setka will plead guilty to those charges is not in dispute. McManus has been building her case for Setka to stand down based on those charges. She has the support of the broader union movement for Setka to stand down based on those charges not on allegations published by the Age that are in dispute.
The intervention by Albanese has turned the attention squarely onto union division etc etc and empowered Setka to stay where he is. All the time McManus and others have been working behind the scenes to remove Setka in a low key and drama free as possible intervention.
All Albanese had to do was concentrate on the same issues as McManus. These issues are not in dispute and Setka himself has declared he will plead guilty later this month. The perfect opportunity for his removal.
Why Albanese decided to go the way he did is up to him. Whatever the reason his intervention has caused significant collateral damage to the union movement. It could have been so easy for labor and unions to combine to show that officials such as Setka have had their day and the broad labour movement was working together and were united in moving into the 21st century.
Debate about the Batty allegations are done and dusted as far as I am concerned. My frustration is with the illconsidered intervention by Albanese. While McManus had been working behind the scenes to ensure Setka stood down Albanese fronts up and perhaps torpedoes any chance that the removal of Setka would be as low key as possible.
I do not care about the Batty allegations any more. That topic has been discussed to death and everyone has their own opinion. So be it.
As I have posted more than once I believe Albanese has fuc**ed up and instead on showing solidarity with the union movement has left it further damaged. That is my opinion.
It could have been so easy.
Will it precipitate a foreclosure?
Will it leave the lenders high and dry?
Will the MDA turn to water at the thought of a cataclysm?
PeeBee
You will have been liquidated.
Will we see a bailout of water borrowers?
Setka basically used Batty as a time stamp for when he thinks it started to become unacceptable to abuse women.
His point seems to be that this was a bad thing, I would argue otherwise and while she is an important figure, these changes had begun earlier and her role highlighted that there still was a way to go.
I certainly don’t see the comment as a personal attack on Batty, it’s more a personal whinge that us blokes are no longer impervious to the consequences if we act on a desire to abuse a woman.
It’s a pretty repugnant belief to think we should be.
The focus on Batty distracts from the general odiousness of his comment and the attitudes it represents, when he just uses her to say when he thinks this change happened.
Lizzie, +1
Barney:
Yep. That cartoon of Setka with Latham was the perfect illustration of the issue.
Well given, just how piss weak the federal Labor are and have been historically, I think I would prefer the CMFFEU to protect my interests, rather than than the party. In respect to Crankmomma’s comment re Gallagher….You have no idea do you? However, that never holds you back from making some sort of inane comment.
I guess the process of borrowing water will be by osmosis between hydrophobic to hydrophilic. By using semipermeable membranes over the hydrophones.
PeeBee says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 1:15 pm
You’ll be dehydrated!
Clem
Being professional has nothing to do with the job title.
The ANF. Nurses are highly respected yet they are highly unionised, take Melbourne’s Royal Children’s Hospital, a much loved Victorian institution even by the Murdoch press yet the ANF enjoys substantial membership, I once heard its something like 90% of nurses there are union members.
The ANF knows how to be professional and be dirty when it thinks its justified, its union reps only need to start muttering “1986” and governments start breaking out into cold sweats. I mention the Children’s Hospital because the union knowing its strengths and weaknesses so it always makes a public point of excluding that hospital from industrial action.
People talk about how restrictive industrial relations laws are, yet hospital nurses station will have union related material on display, clearly the ANF doesn’t feel constrained.
Is it any surprise that Ged Kearney is one of this countries most highly respected union leaders over the past thirty to forty years, possibly the most respect since Bob Hawke. Ged always comes across as highly professional yet she is one tough operator.
There are other unions that like the ANF, that never seem to have the construction unions problems, that isn’t because they are playing nice. Now before you say but everyone likes nurses, that goes to my point and I could have chosen a less popular industry where unions are hardly mentioned at all.
Clearly there is a cultural difference between today’s under 30’s and those who long for old school unionism, that cultural change is often dismissed as the young are soft but as sports coaches have notices, its not that they are soft, but its how they communicate.
Albanese could have stood with McManus and the union movement in calling for the removal of Setka based on already published charges at least two of which Setka has confirmed he will plead guilty. Simple and easy.
Instead Albanese decided to run off on his own little crusade which has left him at odds with union leaders and the secretary of the ACTU and given the media and the government the opportunity to hype up divisions within the labour movement and simply given Setka and his removal a much higher profile than McManus and others working behind the scenes would have hoped for.
If Albanese wanted to go public with a job application to Australian voters showing how tough he is then there are so many issues he could have chosen. Perhaps even holding the government to account ?
Instead he stuck his big boof head into a issue McManus and others have been working hard to resolve behind the scenes. The result ? Further damage to the labour movement and a high public profile for Setka and the “ union bovver boy “ meme the media loves so much.
doyley @ #1491 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 1:34 pm
Albanese and union leaders are not at odds, but rather as one in working to remove the barnacle.
Your attempts at dividing the Labor movement are interesting from a non-partisan point of view.
Rex Douglas @ #1495 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 1:41 pm
Ummmm …. Pot? Kettle? 🙂
Player One @ #1493 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 1:42 pm
doyley is supposedly a loyal Labor partisan – I am not
Btw,
I do not care who the leader of the federal labor party is. Be it Albanese, Shorten or whoever. If any leader had intervened and caused the damage to the labour movement that the current leader has this week I would call them out.
I have always voted labor but if there was a choice at any time between the labor party under the leadership of whoever or the union movement the union movement would win out every time.
Unions have done more for workers and the disadvantaged in this country than the labor party at any time. Yes, there are officials within the union movement who have caused the movement damage and continue to do so. Setka has done good work for his members in a very hard and tough industry. However, due to a combination of circumstances his time has come to go. Mcmanus had this process under control until Albanese intervened.
So yes, piss of Albanese ( and I would say the same about whoever was leading the party ) and concentrate on your day job of holding the government to account and let McManus and the modern union movement leaders get on with their job.
The Albanese intervention has not endeared him to those working behind the scenes to remove Setka. Take that as a given.
clem attlee @ #1493 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 1:26 pm
Lol.
I left the bit out where my late husband worked with Jack Mundey in the Sydney Cove Redevelopment Authority. So I kind of do have a clue. 🙂
But keep proving why you are a clueless idiot from Victoria, clem attlee, it’s fun to watch.
Maybe you can come up with another name for me that is supposed to make me cry?
:kissykissy: 😆