The Australian Electoral Commission is now conducting Coalition-versus-Labor preference counts in seats where its indicative preference counts included minor party or independent candidates – or, if you want to stay on top of the AEC’s own jargon in these matters, two-party preferred counts in non-classic contests.
Such counts are complete in the seven seats listed below; 94% complete in Warringah, where the current count records a 7.4% swing to Labor, 78% complete in New England, where there is a 1.2% swing to the Coalition; at a very early stage in Clark (formerly Denison, held by Andrew Wilkie); and have yet to commence in Farrer, Indi, Mayo and Melbourne. Labor have received unexpectedly large shares of preferences from the independent candidates in Kooyong, Warringah and Wentworth, to the extent that Kevin Bonham now reckons the final national two-party preferred vote will be more like 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition than the 52-48 projected by most earlier estimates.
We also have the first completed Senate count, from the Northern Territory. This isn’t interesting in and of itself, since the result there was always going to be one seat each for Labor and the Country Liberals. However, since it comes with the publication of the full data file accounting for the preference order of every ballot paper, it does provide us with the first hard data we have on how each party’s preferences flowed. From this I can offer the seemingly surprising finding that 57% of United Australia Party voters gave Labor preferences ahead of the Country Liberals compared with only 37% for vice-versa, with the remainder going to neither.
Lest we be too quick to abandon earlier assessments of how UAP preferences were behaving, this was almost certainly a consequence of a ballot paper that had the UAP in column A, Labor in column B and the Country Liberals in column C. While not that many UAP votes would have been donkey votes as normally understood, there seems little doubt that they attracted a lot of support from blasé voters who weren’t much fussed how they dispensed with preferences two through six. There also appears to have been a surprisingly weak 72% flow of Greens preferences to Labor, compared with 25% to the Country Liberals. It remains to be seen if this will prove to be another territorian peculiarity – my money is on yes.
Note also that there’s a post below this one dealing with various matters in state politics in Western Australia.
Here is one link to the new fashion trends:
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/fashion/the-high-fashion-rise-of-modesty-20190404-p51awr.html
I actually am in favour of clothes that cover my skin – I so not want melanoma. It is the “frumpy” or “dowdy” side the fashion that worries me – there are some links in the article.
Are fashion designers also picking up a vibe that the work is moving toward not just social conservatism, but authoritarianism.
Control of women’s bodies and behaviours nicely ticks a box on the checklist for the drift towards racism.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 7:56 pm
…”Your projection is such a give away”…
And what explicitly, does it give away?
Why do so many people seem to think Kristina Keneally would be a good idea as leader? Yes, she’s a good speaker, and I’m sure she’s very competent and intelligent. She’ll probably make a fine minister. But she’d be an unmitigated disaster as opposition leader. It wouldn’t matter how hard she worked or how well she spoke or how good a job she did – she’d be doomed from the start. The Coalition would be salivating at the very prospect.
And, of course, clearly Scott Morrison won the last election on the back of his Hollywood-esque good looks. I believe John Howard’s eleven years in power can be attributed to the same.
PMs and opposition leaders do need a certain charisma and appeal, yes. But the sort required in Australian politics is rather different to that typically exhibited by movie stars.
Hmm – sorry about all the typos. I need my lunchtime coffee.
Douglas and Milko @ #1640 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 7:54 pm
D & M,
I bought my own full-length summer dress in the ersatz ‘modesty’ style myself last week! But only because it covers a multitude of sins. 😆
Mavis Davis says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 8:04 pm
…”If you’re unsure of your position, as it seems, maybe you should return to MAFS”…
I don’t watch television, but if you would like to explain why it is you thought the nomination of a black man to the ministerial portfolio of Indigenous Affairs, was comparable to the supposed class traitorship ascribed to Uncle Tom, I am all fucking ears?
briefly:
Your heart’s in the right place, but my stones Mrs. Jones, you tend to be on the boring side – no offence.
Not Sure, if you disagree with someone about something, perhaps you could try saying why.
It talks about the revival of the ‘prairie dress’, something I noted Morrison’s wife was fond of wearing at the start of the campaign, and then as reports of their weird religion became more frequent, she eschewed in favour of regular women’s clothing.
If prairie dresses are indeed making a comeback ala Laura Ashley style, then perhaps Mrs Morrison won’t look so out of place wearing one herself. How good is that?
Asha L,
I agree. Kristina is highly intelligent, but whatever else, the baggage she carries means that she could only be leader after a long period of doing positive things federally, and gaining support among the public.
I also have more insight than most on this blog into the minds of the 3% of low information voters – at least I think that is true.
My son has strong links to this community from his days of being very troubled. Even in his audio engineering degree, he comes across a lot of people like this – musos are notorious for suffering from depression and anxiety, and self-medicating.
He did tell me before the last election that there was a lot of stuff circulating in Facebook that was nasty and untrue. He did his best to counter it at Uni, and once he, who the low-information voters trusted, gave them facts and assured them that the Facebook stuff was not true, he said they changed their minds about their vote.
But he also warned me that these people still loathe Julia Gillard with an irrational passion. They also believe men’s rights are being eroded, and their female friends and partners feel the same way. Any female ALP labor leader would be crucified at the moment, not least by the main stream media.
Also interesting that my social worker cousin, who works with very disadvantaged families – was convinced Labor would not win the election. She had been hearing the same sorts of negative things, that most of us never come across.
I myself never saw a single negative Facebook post – thanks to Cambridge Analytica the people who run these dishonest fear campaigns have a two-pronged, successful approach.
1) Target low-information voters with lies and fear campaigns that reinforce existing prejudices.
2) Make sure that the people who could counter this lies are basically unaware of the campaign.
Maybe I can see a glimmer of a way forward – may be we need low-information voters who have come to realise that they are being fed a pack of bullshit – like my son, who used to be totally on the “Men’s rights” side, to talk to the disengaged voters. You would only have needed to change about a few % of votes in the right seats, and we would have an ALP government, and Adani would be toast. Because Adani is not viable without Federal government funding.
I honestly think that all voted that were going to be shifted by wanting to stop Adani have already been shifted, and they are currently residing with either the Greens or Labor.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 7:07 pm
‘Not Sure says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 6:44 pm
Boerwar says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 4:46 pm
…”False analogy. Iran is not run by Trump so there is no particular reason to think that they would go out of their way to piss off an important state like Japan”…
Are you sub literate?
It WERE the Iranian interior Minister WHAT said Iran couldn’t HAVE carried out the attack because the Japanese P.M. was in the country when it occurred.
I understand you have assumed for yourself, the title of resident expert in global affairs, but you come across more as a bloviating nitwit.
Douglas and Milko @ #1651 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 8:05 pm
There’s that. However, there is also, well, what I am picking up with my Spidey Senses ( 🙂 ), a wry comment on that particular pervasive current zeitgeist with those dresses, to the extent that they may be neck to ankle but they are sheer. See Gwyneth Paltrow:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/03/fashion/chastity-dress.html
You could almost overlay a feminist and empowering angle onto it to the extent that it may be a way for powerful women to say to men, who have been in the vanguard of encouraging them to get their kit off, mainly in the rap community and the like, that they are taking back control of their bodies and how much of it is on show.
But can I say, there are still an awful lot of young women who are still finding ways to wear less and less:
(That’s tape on their bodies. That’s all! )
William Bowe says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 8:23 pm
…”Not Sure, if you disagree with someone about something, perhaps you could try saying why”…
I gave fairly detailed responses to Boerwar in prelude to accusing him of being of sub par intelligence.
Not Sure:
I personally abhor the vernacular, being brought up without strong adjectives – a sign of a lack of limited vocabulary.
Barney in Makassar @ #1571 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 3:22 pm
Not a good statistic to use.
Labor’s national primary vote moved backwards by 1.39%. In 10 elections time their primary vote will be 19.44% using the same logic.
If we’re talking purely about Qld, in 10 elections time the Greens primary vote will increase from 10.32% to 25.22%. Using the same logic, Labor with a primary vote of 26.68% (a decrease of 4.23%) will be wiped out completely in just over 6 elections.
See why it’s not a good statistic to quote now?
National: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm
Queensland: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-QLD.htm
Mavis Davis says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 8:34 pm
…”a sign of a lack of limited vocabulary”…
So a good one then?
Also, much as we irritate each other on this blog, because Peoples Front of Judea, or Judean Peoples front, the next election will not be won by Labor / Greens wars. They are in fact irrelevant.
The next election will be won for the progressive side of politics by working out how to convince more than about 50% of voters, in the right seats, to vote either 1 Labor 2 Green, or the opposite.
And at them moment neither party has any clue about how to reach the people that need to be reached. and neither party can afford the services of Cambridge Analytica type firms.
I also think that we will be lucky if the election in three years time is fought over the same issues we are arguing about so passionately now. The world is becoming economically and geopolitically a very unstable place. I fear the US will get involved in a war, and with the current Federal government, we will get dragged in. This will be a disaster of proportions we have not seen since WWII, for the world and Australia.
I keep thinking of Einstein’s words: ” I do not know how or why WW III will be fought, but I can tell you that WW IV will be fought with sticks and stones”.
There are a few version of this: https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/World_War_III
When it comes to Adani, Labor, and the Greens… FFS, get some perspective, people. On both sides.
For what its worth, I think the convoy played a small part in Labor’s defeat. It was a dumb idea, and ultimately a real own goal, of the sort that should make both the Greens and the broader anti-Adani movement to seriously think about how they are approaching this (very worthy, IMO) campaign. But to suggest that Labor would have won if not for evil Bob Brown and his convoy, or to claim the Greens hold sole responsibility for Labor’s loss, is ridiculous – it ignores the many tactical errors Labor themselves made (one of which likely was the fence-sitting on Adani), and reeks of the sort of blind partisanship that makes this place so unbearable at times.
On top of that, as much as I’ve had my own issues with how the Greens approached the Adani campaign, particularly regularly linking Labor to the mine, guess who just approved it? The Queensland Labor government. Yes, I understand the realpolitik driving the decision, and I even sympathize to some degree with the position the QLD government is in here, as much as I also deeply disapprove. But it happened. Matt Canavan and George Christensen didn’t come up to Anastasia Palaczczuk and hold a gun to her head. She, and much of her team, have been all for the mine for a long time. Federal Labor may be deeply divided on the issue, but Queensland Labor sure isn’t. Now, would this have happened if Shorten had won? Who knows, really. Maybe not. But maybe so, as well. Its not as though Shorten ever had a whole lot to say against it, and had Labor done well in Queensland, they may well have attributed to the fact that they weren’t particularly against the mine.
And don’t give me that bullshit about Palaczczuk running some ultra-clever, Machiavellian scheme where the mine ultimately won’t go ahead, but Labor would somehow still reap all the benefits they’d get if it did, while somehow also destroying the Greens. If that is indeed her intention, then she is an idiot – and I don’t think Anastasia Palaczczuk is an idiot. I think it’s exactly what it looks like – the Queensland government is spooked by the election result, and don’t want to suffer the the same fate as their federal counterparts. To blame the Greens for the actions of a Labor government – with nary a bad word against the latter – takes cognitive dissonance to whole other level.
That said, it shouldn’t be forgotten that it was the Queensland Labor government that did this, not Federal Labor. To suggest that the actions of one state government – which usually aren’t afraid to break ranks with and piss off their federal counterparts – means the entire Labor party, state and federal, supports “the advancement of thermal coal” and are “no different than the Liberals on the environment”, as one particularly silly contributer here has repeatedly stated, is idiotic, and exactly the same sort of pathetic partisanship as I was railing against above.
For what its worth, as angry as I am about this, I will still be campaigning and voting* for Labor at the next QLD state election. Because whatever this government’s myriad flaws, the far-right lunatics and morons the infest the state LNP here should not be allowed anywhere near the levers of power. They make the federal coalition look like moderates. There is far more going on in this state than just Adani – even environmentally, there’s a whole lot of protections the LNP would just love to cut to ribbons – and anyone who thinks there’s no difference between the two majors has not done their homework. These are the people who – in 2018! – were kicking up a major stink about Labor legalizing abortion!
(* Well, preferencing way above the LNP and other conservatives, at the very least.)
Finally C@tmomma posts something of interest.
Mavis Davis says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 8:34 pm
…”I personally abhor the vernacular, being brought up without strong adjectives”…
Can ye explain the Uncle Tom slur against Ken Wyatt, without swearing, of course?
The “Uncle Tom slur against Ken Wyatt” being relevant to what exactly?
William Bowe says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 8:48 pm
…”The “Uncle Tom slur against Ken Wyatt” being relevant to what exactly?”…
Use your imagination mate.
Previous thread, a few days ago.
Mavis might be willing to explain further.
Was it a breach of the racial vilification act?
I don’t know.
Andrew Bolt might.
Douglas and Milko @ #1640 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 5:54 pm
That reminds me how back in the 90s when the Grunge scene was the big thing. Fashion labels started releasing designer grunge outfits that would set hipsters back around $700. The genuine grungers achieved their look for around $70 from KMart. 😆
Yes, as I thought.
Douglas and Milko @ #1667 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 8:40 pm
Labor will win the next election, after the looming economic depression has lasted for a couple of years, and people in the cities begin to take notice of the changing climate, rather than just being a thankful for the slightly warmer winters. Has anyone else noticed that food prices are starting to ratchet up because the worst drought in NSW on record still shows no signs of easing … well, ever?
William “Basher” Bowe:
I think perhaps it was an attempt at the logical equivalent of the Chess move, en passant
Not Sure:
Whatever. But I will say, from an old man’s perspective, you’ll impress more if you express your thoughts in the absence of foul language – the English language replete thereof.
Player One @ #1675 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 8:56 pm
I have! I actually read a few years ago that you will be able to tell the wealthy from the poor by their diet. The poor can afford cheap pizza and Maccas but the wealthy go to the trouble of eating healthily and their ingredients are becoming more and more expensive.
nath @ #1669 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 8:45 pm
Yeah, yeah, and I know which particular thing I posted you are referring to as well. 😐
Asha Leu:
Please stop expressing that which could be expressed in a sentence or two.
Asher L +1 from me.
@Player One
Labor winning the 2022 election would depend on how they will play the cards given to them. Since we will be in the amidst of an economic crisis by then, which is going to radicalize the electorate on the issue of climate change. Because this issue will be interwoven with the question of how to rebuild the Australian economy, in particular it’s manufacturing sector. Also there is the response of Labor to the banking collapse which in my opinion will come, either it supports a bailout of the banks or not. If it supports a bailout, either the Greens or a new party all together opposing a bank bailout could seriously challenge the Labor Party.
C@tMomma and P1,
I am really noticing this. I am buying groceries for my son – and parts of his student household I suspect – from OS, because otherwise with his Austudy and precarious casual work, he would literally have to live in 2 min noodles.
Actually, I reckon if I was a student now, I would be squatting, so I could afford the food!
We have reached sticks and stones without the intervention of World War Three.
Good night, all.
Speaking of food, if anyone is bored, I would appreciate any favourite vegetarian recipes you have.
I have hotplates, and an oven and grill. No microwave. I have one medium frypan- no lid, and one around 3 L saucepan with lid. No blender of anything.
Douglas and Milko @ #1685 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 9:15 pm
I find that vegetarians don’t cook up well. The meat is tasteless and tough. Perhaps add some curry powder and other spices?
P1 😀
I had a vegetarian Burrito recently. Got to say, quite excellent.
D&M, research the Eggplant and sweet potato curry. 🙂
Mavis Davis says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 9:02 pm
…”Whatever. But I will say, from an old man’s perspective, you’ll impress more if you express your thoughts in the absence of foul language – the English language replete thereof”…
Did they not swear in ye olden days?
Vegetarian Dim Sum / Yum Cha is also excellent
Douglas and Milko @ #1685 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 7:15 pm
Put a whole sweet potato (unpeeled) into a 200C oven for 40mins. Slit in half without cutting thru to the bottom and mash the potato innards a little.
Meanwhile put oil into a skillet with 1/2 tsp paprika, 1/2 turmeric and 1tsp of cumin and swirl around until aromatic. Add some kale and chickpeas and saute for 5mins. Add some optional chopped tomato and lemon juice and cook until the kale is wilted and tomatoes broken down.
Top to the baked sweet potato along with a side Greek salad and some feta cheese sprinkled on top of the baked potato and filling.
E. G. Theodore
says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 9:21 pm
Vegetarian Dim Sum / Yum Cha is also excellent
__________________________
I allow myself about 4 Yum Cha meals a year. The eggplant with prawn and blackbean sauce. Oh god.
Dan Gulberry says:
Saturday, June 15, 2019 at 8:39 pm
Context, Dan, context.
The proposition was that the Greens had had a good result.
I was just demonstrating if such good results continued where it would leave them.
Putting your waffle to the acid test ar:
Exactly what seats do you think some Labor-Greens-trendy left grouping can now win?
More to the point how would such a grouping secure the magic number of 76 to form government, given you have written off the whole of regional Australia as being worthy of representation. Not to mention writing off representing the voters in seats like Lindsay, Robertson, Petrie, Longman and Dickson?
You have not articulated any plausible pathway to lift the combined progressive seat count above 70.
Moreover, you despise Labor for ‘fence sitting’ but you are simply misunderstanding the necessary desire to reach common ground. Your railing against ‘fence sitting’ was a call to arms for a ‘winner takes all’ war.
You are too stupid to realise that means that a winner takes all war in Queensland means that the environment loses. Every time. That progressive politics loses. Every time.
You forced Queensland to choose with that Adani EV convoy circle jerk and two things happened: the Greens ‘surged’ to 10%. Yay Greens. Unfortunately, the LNP surged to an even greater degree. So from the left’s perspective – Larissa kept drawing her $200K salary, but the prognosis for the whole Queensland environment is now terminal. Yay Greens.
Now, do you have any real plans that would allow folk to make common cause against the common enemy? To win those 76+ seats?
Douglas and Milko @ #1687 Saturday, June 15th, 2019 – 9:15 pm
I’m making this later on this week:
https://www.jamieoliver.com/recipes/vegetables-recipes/classic-ratatouille/
And last week I made this:
https://www.taste.com.au/recipes/indian-spiced-cauliflower-soup-2/944e2f2c-0453-46c8-9228-17ff13a5b1c2
Coles sells vegetarian tuna how.
I’m unclear as to how they achieved this.
Tomorrow I am making this:
https://cookieandkate.com/classic-minestrone-soup-recipe/
And Seared Broccoli and Potato Soup is another favourite. But it is Winter here. 🙂
Thanks all – some great suggestions!
If it’s hot, then maybe a Borscht or a Gazpacho soup.