I’m afraid in depth analysis of the result will have to wait until I’ve slept for just about the first time in 48 hours. I’ll just observe that that BludgerTrack thing on the sidebar isn’t looking too flash right now, to which the best defence I can offer is that aggregators gonna aggregate. Basically every poll at the end of the campaign showed Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, and so therefore did BludgerTrack – whereas it looks like the final result will end up being more like the other way around. The much maligned seat polling actually wound up looking better than the national ones, though it was all too tempting at the time to relate their pecularities to a past record of leaning in favour of the Coalition. However, even the seat polls likely overstated Labor’s position, though the number crunching required to measure how much by will have to wait for later.
Probably the sharpest piece of polling analysis to emerge before the event was provided by Mark the Ballot, who offered a prescient look at the all too obvious fact that the polling industry was guilty of herding – and, in this case, it was herding to the wrong place. In this the result carries echoes of the 2015 election in Britain, when polling spoke in one voice of an even money bet between the Conservatives and Labour, when the latter’s vote share on the day proved to be fully 6% higher. This resulted in a period of soul-searching in the British polling industry that will hopefully be reflected in Australia, where pollsters are far too secretive about their methods and provide none of the breakdowns and weighting information that are standard for the more respected pollsters internationally. More on that at a later time.
meher baba
Thank you for repeating your background to the Rudd ‘knifing’. From what I saw at the time, I believe you, but it seems that it is easier for Shorten haters to go with their own myths. Tony Wright in The Age this morning is perpetuating it.
https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/and-with-that-a-lifetime-of-bill-shorten-s-hopes-and-plans-were-gone-20190519-p51ov1.html
mundo
Didn’t you see all the Labor ads about the Libs doubling the debt in only a few years ? Oh wait…………….. 🙁
Mundo
I want you to stay on PB so we are constantly reminded of who the enemy is and how the traitors think.
Thank you.
From Margaret Saville’s Crikey article on Dickson:
“One of the booth workers estimated that the Liberal Party had spent more than a million dollars on campaign advertising and materials in their quest to get Dutton, on a wafer-thin margin, over the line.
Every household in the electorate had received about 50 pieces of Liberal Party direct mail, she said, and the electorate was plastered with unnervingly large photographs of the minister, spruiking his ability to spend zillions of dollars on a highway.”
Clive had billboards for months and double page ads in the Courier Mail warning about Chinese airports for weeks. Queensland was awash with yellowcake. I thought Palmer’s shafting of workers would be proof against it; could not have been more wrong in so much as he was able to distort the agenda, if not win seats.
The ALP were up against serious money and industrial scale lies and bluff. It’s harder to cut through when someone else buys all the billboards.
FWIW from north of the Tweed, which honestly feels like the far side of the moon right now.
I was feeling very pessimistic after the first couple of weeks of the campaign period, predicated on the view that Labor would get about 33% of the PV and that the combination of anti-Labor messaging on tax and Adani would be too much to overcome.
I talked myself into a more optimistic frame of mind in the following weeks and did genuinely think Labor’s field campaigns could make the difference in the marginals.
I’m obviously fallible. I offer no defence.
The upside of the campaign for me was the joy of meeting and working with sweet Labor-committed volunteers, old and young, and receiving the encouragement of Labor-loyal voters.
The downside was hearing a candidate for ON define himself as a National Socialist, and then to have him proselytise a politics of persecution, of racial and religious purity, and to describe people like me as ‘mongrels’.
We didn’t win. None of the last 4 Parliaments have been able to satisfactorily and durably resolve the big issues that face us. The new Parliament will resolve nothing. The Right have the ascendancy but Labor are still standing. We are fighting on. If we had won yesterday, the next fight – the fight to implement the policies – would be about to commence. The fight resumes in the context of stalemate and dysfunction.
There is only one party that can resolve the issues that face us as a nation. That party is Labor. We have been fighting for 130 years. We will be here for another 130 years too, and will not stop fighting. We will learn. We will examine our shortcomings. We will fight on.
Simon² Katich® @ #600 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:36 am
Beautifully said. And so true.
Patrick Bateman says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 11:57 am
If Labor ever wants to hold government again it needs to ditch everyone who holds views similar to Boer.
Apparently instead of looking at Labor’s 33% or the huge loss of votes to a fat man who stole $70M from workers, it’s all the Greens’ fault because 10-20% of their vote comes from people who would otherwise vote Liberal regardless.
Yes:
There were some gilded youths that sat along the barber’s wall.
Their eyes were dull, their heads were flat, they had no brains at all;
That and them to.
The big data sentiment analysis guy that analyses social media predicted a Liberal win. It was notable since he was also one of the few that predicted Trump winning.
To balance this, though, he also got the same-sex marriage poll quite wrong.
Sorry I lost the link to the article. Perhaps this is only reflecting how rabid social media is – and flush with fake news etc
I haven’t read a lot about herding, though I did think the apparent smoothing of poll results seemed odd given the apparent MOE. Obviously any statistical analysis is only as useful as representative the sampling is. I wonder if part of the sampling methodology should be to use more online tools? I only mention it in the sense that I know adverts online, for example, can be quite geographically targeted due to the tracking technology social media employs (which many hate and has been in the news.) I guess you still miss a percentage of the population who don’t use online tools or social media. I also don’t understand how all the weighting etc of results work – given the apparent paucity of Aus pollsters transparency it sounds as if independent analysis is difficult.
For a bit of fun and a good conspiracy theory donning my tinfoil hat… if you were a right wing, well resourced and highly motivated “group” – who felt you could exert some small amount of bias in polling agency results (how not specified) – and a year or two back you wanted to be rid of Turnbull … what bias would you have “programmed” in?
So, the Greens are denying:
1. That they spent six years with all the other parties killing Bill. Including incessantly on this blog.
2. That they had no spoiler impact during the election. That is to say the Adani Convoy, the incessant yammering by Di Natale about reaching out to Shorten, demanding this of Labor, demanding that of Labor and prancing on about holding ‘Labor to account’ were neither intended to make a difference nor made a difference. He did all that stuff for no reason at all. Just did it.
3. That their 20% preference drift makes no difference to the 2PP outcome.
AND the Greens carry on about Labor delusions!
If there were no Greens Party Labor would now be forming government.
Melissa Price, Greens Minister for the Environment.
Funny how you are all ok with people who want to vote for racists first so long as they put Labor second.
Didn’t see many Liberal 1, Labor 2 votes actually. 😐
The ABC is suggesting Bowen will throw his hat in the ring. Hope he wins 🙂 sorry cant help myself.
The other perspective on that one, nath, is that the Labor right is serious about promoting Women Of Merit and the Labor Left isn’t.
Briefly, thank you for everything you did this campaign. You put hard work in and your reports were interesting reads.
poroti: “Labor did not and what little they did was late and in response and so on the back foot. From the first moment it should have been introduced as “Stopping a tax rort” . “Closing a loophole” . KISS and start on the front foot. Make the ‘tax rorters’ try and prove it is not a rort “taking money away from hard working Australians ” .
This argument would have worked a dream if Labor’s policy had featured grandfathering. That’s how I would have gone about it, and I certainly wouldn’t have taken it to an election (as nobody understands it). A change announced on budget night that would have restricted the credit to existing shareholdings would have closed the hole in revenue over the medium term and would have attracted very little criticism.
The problem with this approach is that it wouldn’t have raised much additional revenue for a long time. And, if you search Google for the sorts of comments Labor leaders made when they announced the change, it was all about revenue: badly advised by the Grattan Institute, they mistakenly believed that only a very few rorters were benefiting from this measure, and that removing it would provide a wonderful magic pudding to fund their election promises.
Thank you, meher baba @ 11.58am. But do you think nath will change his headbanging narrative? Nope. Nope. Nope.
This argument would have worked a dream if Labor’s policy had featured grandfathering.
Got it in one.
So from what i can see…Clive and his UAP have not cracked 4% in HoR or Senate??
No reimbursement for “electoral expenses” from the AEC then?? 🙂 ??
DRDR @ #449 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 9:10 am
I expected no less from him.
lizzie @ #511 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 9:33 am
As do I.
For all her policy brilliance, Wong is not, and never will be a “retail politician”. She is best left in the Senate where she can do the most good (ie damage to the Tories).
Keneally , on the other hand does have “retail” appeal, whether it’s enough to convince “bogans” to vote Labor is another matter. Probably best to leave her in the Senate as well where she can work as a tag-team unit with Wong. With the retirement of Doug Cameron, that’s essential.
“it’s all the Greens’ fault ”
Not entirely, but constantly saying Adani shouldn’t happen without saying how the people who think they’re relying on those jobs should survive isn’t a winning strategy.
I’m totally confused
Party polling was crap who knows for how long, 3+ years?
Yet it would appear that PPM polling wasn’t so far off the mark.
Anyway, I’m off to socialise with some real people at the Million Paws Walk. Because I’m such a ‘dumb’ Labor Loser, or sumfink. 😀
Hmmm ……………………..feel sorry for anyone on Newstart.
No realistic prospect of even a review now. 🙁
While I don’t think the Adani convoy, alone, was instrumental in losing Qld seats, it was, to my mind extraordinarily arrogant and counter productive.
Why did they have to drive into central Queensland as if taunting the locals?
Why couldn’t they just drive around Wentworth, Warringah and other rich trendy liberal suburbs then on to Canberra?
The left seems to have become synonymous with being a “liberal” in the US sense of the world. Global capitalism with strict social/cultural rules of language and identity. Really not left at all.
Oh yeah, and if I ever see a pair of those dumb arse ‘Stop Adani’ earrings on anyone I’m going to rip them a new one! Located in the ear lobe area! 😆
Boerwar @ #608 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 12:10 pm
The Queensland CFMMEU were the biggest spoilers for Labor, not the Greens.
Onlooker @ #517 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 9:36 am
Especially given that one of the team’s major sponsors has an openly gay CEO, ie Qantas.
“If there were no Greens Party Labor would now be forming government.”
You are truly delusional and a bigger enemy of Labor than any Green.
If there was no Greens Labor would have about 30 seats and the senate would be 2/3rds right wing maniacs.
nath: “Gillard made Shorten a minister asap. It’s a big step up for someone on the backbench for 1 term.”
I reckon he’d have become a minister anyway if Rudd had remained and had won the election.
imacca says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 12:14 pm
Hmmm ……………………..feel sorry for anyone on Newstart.
No realistic prospect of even a review now.
Ya well; that was part of the Greens brilliant campaign; Labor is shit because they won’t commit to a figure.
Niki Savva said on Insiders that the Liberals are going to have to do something meaningful on AGW. What, she isn’t sure, esp as they have to have something that appeals to the moderate Liberals in their safe inner city seats, as well as the Qld numpties.
She also said Abbott would be largely ignored now he’s no longer in the partyroom, but I reckon this is wishful thinking. He’s now got even more time on his hands to free range on 2GB, Sky News and News Ltd papers, whipping up the ScoMoers into a frenzy if the party tries anything meaningful to abate our GHGEs.
zoomster
says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 12:11 pm
The other perspective on that one, nath, is that the Labor right is serious about promoting Women Of Merit and the Labor Left isn’t.
________________________________
Well I don’t know about the reflection on the Left, but in this case it was laudable for the Right to support Gillard. That doesn’t change what I said with regard to Shorten’s relationship with Gillard. There was massive motivation for Shorten to want Gillard to be PM. Promotions et al. He controlled the numbers in her seat. It was all about those timelines hey.
Patrick Bateman
I see that you are trying to set up two parallel conversations.
The one that you want to inhabit is the one where the Greens Party’s ONLY impact on the Labor 2PP was the positive one of 80% second prefs going to Labor.
Pig’s Arse to that.
It is the great environmental tragedy that the Labor comprehensive environment package has once again been scuppered by the Greens voters. Not good enough, eh?
If ALL of the Greens voters had voted for Labor, Labor would be forming government.
If the Shorten did not have Di Natale hovering over him like the vulture he was, Labor would be forming government.
If the Greens did not go the massive wedge over Adani, Labor would be forming government.
The Greens’s 2019 achievement?
Three more years of accelerated biodiversity loss under the worst environment minister we have ever had.
Did Labor make strategic and tactical mistakes?
Yes.
Could the absence of a Greens Party have made the crucial difference to forming government?
Yes.
I trust you enjoy the acceleration of biodiversity loss.
You guys have earned every single extinction.
I can’t help wonder what government will look like from here – they really didn’t expect to win this one, a bunch of their top level have quit, they don’t really have any ideas that they think it wise to apprise the general public of, it might all go a bit haywire. Buyers’ remorse a possibility?
PuffyTMD:
“And if the voters can’t get off their lazy arses and learn to think for themselves, if they would rather watch Master (not Mistress) Chef and Real Housewives of Fuckville, then they deserve to fry in 45 degree weeks of heat.”
Perhaps instead of hoping and wishing that the electorate were smarter, we should just acknowledge that people are as dumb and selfish as you’ve noted and pitch policies that reflect that. That’s what the Coalition do. They’ve never made the mistake of thinking the electorate are smart.
meher baba
says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 12:16 pm
nath: “Gillard made Shorten a minister asap. It’s a big step up for someone on the backbench for 1 term.”
I reckon he’d have become a minister anyway if Rudd had remained and had won the election.
_____________________________________
It’s possible. But are you going to deal with the possible, or the certainty of a ministry under Gillard.
Yes. As someone said earlier, imagine the reaction to a Christensen Convoy on anti abortion, repeal SSM driving straight through inner Melbourne. It’s the same thing in reverse.
Good post Simon. It is unnaturally warm in Adelaide today.
I put three big native insect houses up on my property a few months ago. All three are empty.
Maybe when crops start failing these Hilux driving fools will start to realise something is badly wrong.
At least no Abbott, Fraser, Palmer.
Labor spread too big, made franklingcredits main issue.
‘Patrick Bateman says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 12:16 pm
“If there were no Greens Party Labor would now be forming government.”
You are truly delusional and a bigger enemy of Labor than any Green.
If there was no Greens Labor would have about 30 seats and the senate would be 2/3rds right wing maniacs.’
Uh huh. You are not listening.
If every Greens voter had voted Labor (and who else would they vote for?) had voted Labor, Labor would now be forming Government.
meher baba
Agree re not taking it to an election. If you do then “as nobody understands it” simplistic is the only way to go rather than offer a ‘Bowensplaination’
Yeah, and the screws are probably going to be tightened further.
The main reason why I think people are being privileged idiots when they say Labor should just wave through the nasty stuff, so the Coalition can look its worst. It’s a game to a lot of you but people actually suffer when that happens.
Plus they’ve blown an even bigger structural deficit in the books, and told a bunch of lies about what kind of economic conditions Australia should be preparing itself for
WeWantPaul @ #446 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:10 am
Take your ball and go home you childish little girl.
Boer. If your plan relies on getting 100% preference flows to form government then you have no plan.
Problem now for Labor is that the number of possible factors that led to this result means that separating them and working out what Labor’s path should be will be difficult. You can already see the fracturing of opinions here with different individuals cherry picking their own favourite cause.
I think Morrison has potential. Elections are resets for everyone, if they want them. He does come to the next parliament with very little baggage comparatively. He’s only really made three promises to the electorate as PM: Surplus, no boats, no bubble. I’m not expecting anything (he’s most likely a coal-waving nutter) but he has some room to move the country forward in an only-Nixon-can-go-to-China kind of way.
hungry jack @ #539 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:42 am
These are extreme cults.
“Maybe when crops start failing these Hilux driving fools will start to realise something is badly wrong.”
Part of the problem is that it’s the “Hilux driving fools” who are being asked to pay all the costs of the transition. What does it cost someone in Victoria of Adani doesn’t happen.
shiftaling:
The RBA is very likely to lower interest rates at its June board meeting. That will be the first thing Frydenberg has to navigate. My guess is the tax cuts Scotty rabbited on about will be shelved.
Boerwar
The problem with your “every Green” is the reality that not every Green voter came to them from the left. Votes Labor would not get no matter how ‘disappeared’ the Greens were.