I’m afraid in depth analysis of the result will have to wait until I’ve slept for just about the first time in 48 hours. I’ll just observe that that BludgerTrack thing on the sidebar isn’t looking too flash right now, to which the best defence I can offer is that aggregators gonna aggregate. Basically every poll at the end of the campaign showed Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, and so therefore did BludgerTrack – whereas it looks like the final result will end up being more like the other way around. The much maligned seat polling actually wound up looking better than the national ones, though it was all too tempting at the time to relate their pecularities to a past record of leaning in favour of the Coalition. However, even the seat polls likely overstated Labor’s position, though the number crunching required to measure how much by will have to wait for later.
Probably the sharpest piece of polling analysis to emerge before the event was provided by Mark the Ballot, who offered a prescient look at the all too obvious fact that the polling industry was guilty of herding – and, in this case, it was herding to the wrong place. In this the result carries echoes of the 2015 election in Britain, when polling spoke in one voice of an even money bet between the Conservatives and Labour, when the latter’s vote share on the day proved to be fully 6% higher. This resulted in a period of soul-searching in the British polling industry that will hopefully be reflected in Australia, where pollsters are far too secretive about their methods and provide none of the breakdowns and weighting information that are standard for the more respected pollsters internationally. More on that at a later time.
William do you agree or disagree with the notion that the polls weren’t just wrong in the campaign, but were wrong systemically for a long time? If what KB is saying is right and that there was no late swing.
What this says to me is two things.
Firstly there’s a lot of people who don’t make up their minds till the last moment. The pollsters make assumptions about this split and this time they were wrong.
Secondly it says that when voters stepped up to vote in pre-polls in particular and at the last minute decided against change, this process began long before the campaign. It simply didn’t show up because the pollsters had no way to know.
Also, I’d like to know your opinion on to what extent Clive Palmer took Labor votes and then directed them to Liberal. That’s what kept going through my head when I saw especially the Queensland primaries last night, even early on.
WeWantPaul
This rock had a great night and a spring in his step this morning. How was last night mate? Feeling any better this morning? Don’t blame old son fix it.
No one loves like the ALP no one hates like the ALP.
If the media are to be believed, Rudd and Gillard weren’t liked by the public.
So what’s the problem?
PTMD: To be honest, pretty unhappy the Libs got in. But realistic enough to analyse the result as caused by the ALP. So if your party caused it by being unable to prosecute a good enough argument to beat a crippled opponent, what does that make you?
WWP: “I’ve had enough of this but Labor should be briefing lawyers to challenge every possible at risk elected member for ineligibility.”
I’d rather hope that the next Labor leader will offer to sit down with ScoMo and try to work out a pathway towards legislative and constitutional change to neutralise the impact of the High Court’s pedantic and wasteful rulings on s44.
Widely mocked on PB. Morrisons bus tour of Queensland will be immortalised as a shrewd and cost effective campaign tool.
PuffyTMD
It is a very depressing result; but you can’t just give up. Perhaps as a majority we are bunch of self entered bastards; but it is a hard lesson to take..
Today’s Mumble.
https://insidestory.org.au/a-lesson-twice-learnt/
PuffyTMD @ #497 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:29 am
Yes it does not matter who the next leader is …while unions such as the CFMMEU and SDA do massive damage to Labors brand.
Labor need to put the power into the rank and file and take it away from the unions.
Boerwar does not understand how preferential voting works.
I have my own opinion on these.
Poor sprocket spent days working on those bus memes. 🙂
poroti @ #439 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:09 am
Labor tried that till they were blue in the face. Didn’t resonate. ‘They’re going to tax your retirement nest egg’ worked.
Re the statements on here to the effect that it’s unfair to portray Shorten as having knifed both Rudd and Gillard.
I am prepared to accept Shorten’s argument that he didn’t have much to do with the knifing of Rudd (which started as primarily joint exercise between the NSW Right and the Victorian Left), but there can be no doubt whatsoever that he was front and centre in the removal of Gillard in 2013.
Asanque @ #504 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:00 am
One of the good people. One of those who can be proud that I stood up against the corruption. One of the righteous who stood at the barricades and went down fighting. I am not on my knees kissing the master’s arse, like you.
lizzie @ #508 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:33 am
Bowen and Marles you have to be kidding me !!
Bucephalus @ #398 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 10:50 am
This is utter bollocks!
The views expressed by Falou are only a central tenet of Christianity with some extremist cults.
Even then, that was not the issue. The issue was a breach of contract.
It all saddens me as I greatly appreciated his ability as a rugby player. But the ARU were not going to allow him to breach his contract by using his status in Rugby to propagate such hate speech.
meher baba @ #507 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:34 am
Yet Scott Morrison stood behind the curtains while his assassins did the dirty work and gets rewarded.
meher baba
says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 11:34 am
Re the statements on here to the effect that it’s unfair to portray Shorten as having knifed both Rudd and Gillard.
I am prepared to accept Shorten’s argument that he didn’t have much to do with the knifing of Rudd (which started as primarily joint exercise between the NSW Right and the Victorian Left)
______________________________
Oh please meher. Shorten was in it from the get go. Feeney was acting as his emissary so that it wouldn’t appear he had blood on his hands. That’s why Rudd made Shorten front the media in 2013 before he would challenge Gillard. Rudd wanted Shorten to do it publicly this time.
I had this really eloquent post read to post and I lost my internet connection.
Thanks for Fraudband! Liberals
No offence intended to Briefly’s accounts of his campaign on the ground, which were genuinely worth reading, but I’ve just scanned through a page or so of them without encountering anything that could honestly be described as pessimistic.
Nicholas @ #507 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:33 am
The Labor right are blind to many things. They’re killing the ALP.
Briefly said the Libs would be ‘crushed for a generation’ or words to that effect.
Rex Douglas @ #509 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:03 am
Get knotted, you supporter of the genocide party. You are a traitor to Australia.
A lot of people seem to be quick to point out or fault who shouldn’t be leader, but seem to offer no real reasons why they should nor who they think should be leader and why.
likewise with policy, other than the seemingly perpetual yea/nay on green issues
Big time no and no to Bowen and Marles from me.
I predict that Albo will do well in Qld. He will take the mother of all infra policies up there and he will do pretty good.
Asanque
You have just posted a long post complaining that labor was going to try and do something about the tax rorts for those that earned using capital. Zero taxation by any measure is a rort.
You voted Green and then Liberal; self interest won; your Green vote may have made you feel good; but the part of you vote that mattered was for the Liberals. An increase in the wealth gap won; you get the full package.
Other than a small target, I would like to know how labor deals with that.
Man made climate change has become a religion and therefore can no longer be discussed in rational ways.
Also demanding Australians must sacrifice for what appears as religious like zealotry is a hard sell.
And presenting it in the fashion that the world is doomed if Australia doesn’t immediately become lambs will hardly ring true to many, given Australia’s comparatively miniscule population.
I find it odd that some are suggesting that Australia should basically immolate itself before the man made climate change alter so as to appear faithful members of the creed, knowing full well any actions Australia takes will have near zero climate impact.
Re Jason Clare: he can’t be leader because nobody knows him.
People who want to become leaders of political parties need to work hard on lifting their public profile.
Clare reminds me a bit of Michael Lee from the Keating era: a good-looking guy who lots of apparatchiks considered might have leadership potential, but who made almost no impact whatsoever through the media.
Chris Bowen for leadership? He should be shown the door after this debacle.
As for the polls, that’s the last time I put any stock in polling. They are broken to the point of being useless.
cc
I’m just not buying it that there was a massive swing to the Libs in the last few days. I think it’s more likely the polls had been overstating Labor support for years.
I really question how relevant opinion polling is. So wrong for so long.
PuffyTMD @ #522 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:38 am
rightio then…
@frednk says:
PuffyTMD
Perhaps as a majority we are a bunch of self entered bastards; but it is a hard lesson to take..
—————————————————————————————
This has been blatantly obvious for years now, as 90% of Australia don’t vote Greens
It has to be ALP and ALBO. Just one main message. INFRASTRUCTURE. Regional and outer suburbs to get road, rail, high speed, whatever. Fuckin trams maybe!
PTMD:
I think you need to take a break from your self-entitled rants.
If your enemy is someone who put the Libs 3rd last, ALP 2nd last and Palmer party last, I think you will soon realise you have too many enemies 🙂
Parties win elections by building consensus for the future, not ranting futilely about the past.
I led the battles against the Howard Government. Nothing about the current ALP party (including you) remotely inspires me.
Regarding the oft repeated, self-entitled claim that somehow the Greens are costing Labor votes because, apparently, if The Greens party disincorporated tomorrow every single one of the votes otherwise cast for The Greens would magically go straight to its rightful place in the ALP.
This completely ignores the fact that every single Greens candidate in every state issued how to vote cards directing their supporters to preference Labor over the Liberal Party. The 10-20% of Greens voters that didn’t come back to the ALP made an explicit personal choice to preference away from them in spite of the express encouragement to do so.
To somehow presume that in the absence of The Greens those votes would magically return to the ALP is, frankly, delusional in the extreme.
Most likely what The Greens are doing is in fact harvesting additional votes for the progressive left that otherwise may not end up sitting with the left at all, and regardless, self-evidently would not end up with the ALP.
one sleeper
there was a substantial largely invisible campaign – by sections of christian church – remember heads of several main denominations made press announcement together two weeks ago in favour of religious freedom – that was a whistle to vote liberal – 150 christian school advised parents to vote liberal (in effect). how many congregations were involved – start with assemblies of god of morrison affiliation and go from there – the combined audience for campaign could be 250,000 or more – impact on voting ??
it all happened in recent weeks – and was quiet in part to not compromise PM one might think who undoubtedly was aware and part of
Diogenes @ #533 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 9:40 am
Mumble says they got the primary votes wrong.
https://insidestory.org.au/a-lesson-twice-learnt/
Barry Jones rightly said that trying to counter Morrison’s blather is like trying to shovel fog.
We’ve been trumped.
Wentworth called for Sharma.
Salk
The technology to reduce our carbon footprint exist; there are now only two action possible; start down the path or wait until the despair overwhelms.
Alb-O vs Scom-O
Battle of the big O’s
It’s what Australia wants. (apparently)
c@tmomma (re Jason Clare): “And he has an Asian wife. Which seems to be worth thinking about too.”
So does George Christensen. And, better still, he’s from Queensland. Perhaps he could become the next Labor leader: problem solved! 🙂
‘Nicholas
Boerwar does not understand how preferential voting works.’
Really?
The Greens got 10% of the primary vote.
Only 80% of the Greens primary vote went through to Labor by way of preferences = 8% of the 2PP vote.
The missing 20% = 2% of the total 2PP vote.
That 2% would be enough for Australia to be forming a Labor government.
Ergo, if every Greens had voted 1 Labor, Labor would now be forming government.
I trust that all those Greens enjoy Melissa Price.
The Greens own her.
frednk: You just posted about one discrete element of the ALP tax policy and mischaracterised what I said.
In any event, the ALP tax policy was a broad policy that drew a lot of criticism for many other factors (most of which I disagreed with).
At the end of the day, they were better off not being such a big target.
I have no issue with fixing rorts, but what the ALP proposed went well beyond that (and it would be disingenuous to say otherwise).
BSA Bob @ #477 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 11:18 am
The problem is that it is true! The only question is the extent of his involvement.
Perhaps his stepping down will at last put to rest the negatives of the RGR era.
AngoraFish
Self indulgent rot. It was not the how to vote, it was not the voters ( asanque being an exception) it was the anti labor campaign.
“I predict that Albo will do well in Qld. He will take the mother of all infra policies up there and he will do pretty good.”
This:
Albo does Man of the People far better than the fake from Cronulla, he also crosses the Barrassi divide