I’m afraid in depth analysis of the result will have to wait until I’ve slept for just about the first time in 48 hours. I’ll just observe that that BludgerTrack thing on the sidebar isn’t looking too flash right now, to which the best defence I can offer is that aggregators gonna aggregate. Basically every poll at the end of the campaign showed Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, and so therefore did BludgerTrack – whereas it looks like the final result will end up being more like the other way around. The much maligned seat polling actually wound up looking better than the national ones, though it was all too tempting at the time to relate their pecularities to a past record of leaning in favour of the Coalition. However, even the seat polls likely overstated Labor’s position, though the number crunching required to measure how much by will have to wait for later.
Probably the sharpest piece of polling analysis to emerge before the event was provided by Mark the Ballot, who offered a prescient look at the all too obvious fact that the polling industry was guilty of herding – and, in this case, it was herding to the wrong place. In this the result carries echoes of the 2015 election in Britain, when polling spoke in one voice of an even money bet between the Conservatives and Labour, when the latter’s vote share on the day proved to be fully 6% higher. This resulted in a period of soul-searching in the British polling industry that will hopefully be reflected in Australia, where pollsters are far too secretive about their methods and provide none of the breakdowns and weighting information that are standard for the more respected pollsters internationally. More on that at a later time.
Yes, props to nath.
I wonder how many of the thousand or so on the islands will still be there in 3 years?
Salk the problem is that the voters are ill informed. Yes, really.
Your remedy? What, preach more fire and brimstone?
“The role of progressives is to lead.
The role of centrists is to support progressives.
The role of progressives is to lead.
The role of centrists is to support progressives.
Centrists need to write that out a few thousand times and put it into practice.“
Cop that you feckless miners: Labor is going to hand over the policy and leadership keys to the very folk you hate and despise. It’s your lot to cop it sweet and return to Labor stat. Got it!! Bob Brown and Pepe will be along shortly in their $150,000 EV to Greensplain the details to ya’ll all. Because we understand – you are as dumb as dogshit and need our help: we’ll to the thinking and you do the following. But all animals are equal …
Cud Chewer @ #337 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 10:24 am
‘This is NOT about who leads this ALP’
Okay, I hope Bill stays on.
So you’ve learnt absolutely nothing from last nights result.
FMD
I don’t know if many people in Australia know this (or indeed are interested), but attack ads have always been banned here in the UK. You can’t use TV or radio to make direct attacks on other political parties, you can only say positive things about your own campaign. Maybe Australia might consider the same thing one day. (Attack ads are allowed in newspapers though, I think).
Please stay Mundo. I may not agree with you but I will read your comments. I am not backward in coming forward to tell you if I think you are wrong, or right.
@Cud Chewer
I agree, working as a taxi driver in Hobart gave me an insight into the mentality of variety lot of people.
nath @ #344 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 10:26 am
I stand there with you Nath you glory hog.
mundo I don’t care if Bill stays on or not.
Changing leader isn’t going to change anything and you’re being absolutely stupid if you think it will.
Its the battle of big ideas.
brown, shorten and bowen in that order
brown swung it
mundo @ #344 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 10:25 am
I hate to say so, but you came the closest on PB to getting the result right.
But you remain a pain in the arse with your style.
PuffyTMD @ #355 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 10:29 am
Thanks Puff that means alot.
BK
Yes, I know. If anyone complains about anything, my first question will be, ‘did you vote for Labor to win in 2019?’. If the answer is ‘No’ or ‘I did not vote’ I will tell them I have no sympathy for them, and thanks for nothing from the rest of us.
mundo
You’re welcome. 🙂
That “Change the rules” campaign title did not really explain itself well. Obvious response… Which rules?
It is absolutely correct that Labor has never fought hard enough against the poor financial management accusation, but seems to me that the Murdoch papers are very keen to promote it.
The leader is the most important single factor. The result vindicates the coup against Turnbull really. He was never going to get those swings in QLD, Western Sydney and Nth Tassie. He had lost them in 2016.
Cud Chewer @ #358 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 10:31 am
Ok Cud.
Labor had good ideas. The coalition had no ideas.
The coalition won.
I see your point.
It’s a good one.
Much as I love Briefly and Rex one has to suspect the first, of many many very deep flaws it this waffle, is that most disengaged voters have zero contact with Briefly or Rex. These disengaged voters probably have a much better grasp of what is going on the that moron that wrote that, so they aren’t a completely lost cause.
I guess we will have to wait for all the stages of grieving to take place before we get people talking truth.
Sohar @ #333 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 10:23 am
Which well warrants this repeating:
“Classic Lib tactic.”
Well, sure. If you want to focus blame on a completely different party to your own instead of doing some naval gazing yourself, I certainly can’t stop you.
Cud
It’s about the PROSECUTION of ideas.
That’s where the leader, communicator, persuader comes in.
It aint rocket science.
The problem here is there’s way too much rocket science.
A progressive policy would be to invest in infrastructure, services, and direct job creation in regional areas to make coal mining jobs redundant and to help those communities have a better, greener quality of life.
The ALP doesn’t advocate progressive policies for regional areas.
mundo @ #338 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 10:25 am
Groan. 3 years of arrogant belittling and know-it-allness on steroids. Knowing that Mr Bowe doesn’t like people on PB telling others who they’ve blocked, but doing it anyway. An Arrogant Australian. Is that what the blog is to become? I guess so because that is what the nation has become.
Corangamite
Libby COKER won ( I think)
The swing in the booth I looked after was to Liddy for sure.
In my little corner of the world, things look good.
SETTING UP THE BUNTING
Day started at 5 am; load the paraphernalia into the car and arrived at the booth at 6.30 to discover a ute there with two blokes guarding the liberal bunting. Apparently they had put it there the night before with an attempt to take up all spots, but it had been pulled down overnight.
The A frame went up 6 meters from the polling entrance, the guards had not had the sense to claim a spot. I got there first and I got the best spot.. Found some nice spots for the modest material I had been supplied, ‘stop the chaos etc’ went up the side of the disable ramp. From a distance you saw the Liberal effort above and below and “stop the chaos ” between. Looked very effective I thought, the liberal bunting framing the message nicely.
Some trees at one of the entrances provided nice support for “Libby for Hospitals and schools”. In the other direction you had to take a cut lunch to get past the Liberal bunting so I want back and found a nice tree near the polling place to hang the Libby board. The amount the local school would be better off went up on a lamp post. Portable table and chair set up and I was ready at 7.15.
GETTING THE THE HOW TO VOTE ORDER RIGHT
Next to show was the Australian conservatives. He set up beside me with his chair and A frame. His pitch was,if your voting Liberals, consider the Australian Conservatives, we are one the same.
Then a young lass showed up with a single board and how to vote for Derryn Hinch, she was going to do the day, she may be a kid but I couldn’t see her standing the day so I offered her the chair that I had set up for the other volunteers that showed up for Labor. She sat down and put her board on the Australian conservative side. The order was now, Labor, Derryn Hinch and the Australian Conservatives.
The Liberals showed up; first they tried setting up on the other side of the disabled car park, well that wasn’t going to work, so they joined the line. So the order was, Liberals, Australian Conservatives, Derryn Hinch, Labor and Libby’s A frame. The Labor How to vote would be on top of the pile. It pays to get there early.
THE VOLUNTEERS
During the day we had the State Labor Minister for roads show up; she was very popular with the Liberal volunteers, they all abandoned their posts to bend her ear over this road and that.
A couple of other Labor volunteers showed up for a couple of hour stints giving as a good presence.
THE VOTERS
There were four groups, those that only collected the blue ones, those that collected the red and green, those that collected them all and those that collected none. Most of my generation and older took them all, we come from a time when you were polite. Within the younger group, those that drove up in monster ute’s, blue ones only, women dressed in expensive horse riding gear, blue ones only, and how did Henry Lawson put it:
There were some gilded youths that sat along the barber’s wall.
Their eyes were dull, their heads were flat, they had no brains at all; blues ones only.
Looked up the internet; saw the exit poles, 2% swing to Labor looking good.
SCRUTINEERING
First time I had done it; just so impressed at the organization of the AEC, the checking and double checking. There was 900+ votes to count.
They unfolded; first preference to Libby in one pile, first to Sarah in another and other in a third.
At the same time the senate was unfolded to find any representative votes that had been put in the wrong box. There where none even the guild youth got it right.
The third pile was then sorted into each candidate , there totals recorded; giving the first preference count for all. The piles not belonging to the non likely winning candidate ( that the AEC had selected) where then divided to create the two party preferred result.
The swing was to Liddy.
In my little corner of the world, things look good.
THE NON FORMAL VOTES
Bob did well, trouble was instead of putting bob in and number 1 and then numbering the other squares from 1 to 8, thry continued number them 2 to 9, not a valid vote; a couple unnumbered, a few that couldn’t count past 4 ( gilded youth I guess) and one that used the 8 squares to write PATHETIC; what a pathetic vote.
THE END
It was a long day; the AEC employees do it every election.
After scrutineering left, rang my wife and discovered the polls and the exit polls were wrong and Australia is going to be rudderless for the next three years.
The overall result a disappointment. Briefly was right, the Greens, Murdock and all campaigned hard against Labor and won.
One very good contribution on PB over the last couple of months was the one about the politics of fear. Fearful people often find it hard to support change. Promoting change in a way which supports these people reduces the ability of the conservatives and media who benefit from the status quo to run fear campaigns.
Definitely it isn’t like voters have any say or involvement in a democracy, it is just something ‘out there’.
Club house leader for moron of the year.
Mundo: “Here we go again.”
OK, so who do you suggest to lead the ALP ?
Just because Albo is from the left, so what ? At least he cuts through.
The reason I mentioned the RRR and community cup stuff is that they are actually institutions in Melbourne and also demonstrates that hey actually gives a shyte for the most vulnerable and not all people are driven by self-interest and that there are those that do believe, unlike Thatcher, that society is not dead and is important. More importantly, it suggests that he can develop a narrative that can fight for labor values.
But go on, whom do you suggest can take it right up to the hollow mendacious government whose only message to Australia, to paraphrase one of TISMS great songs, is to “Help your Fkn self” ?
Onlooker @ #324 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 10:18 am
Well I guess we can include you in the group of Labor right who never really had their heart in climate change policy.
Denying the climate change emergency is a path to political destruction for any political observer/player.
Expect Labor to present itself as a small target in 3 years time. Should they win they spend 3 years preparing and presenting a vision for a 2nd term. Then SHOULD they win real change can begin.
We are at least 6 years away from change. How bad is that!
Mundo
You are wrong. It is not labor’s time. It is the time of greed and self-interest. If Labor caters to that, then it will not be Labor. I would go so far as to vote through everything the Lib/Nats want. Let Australians cop what they voted for in its fullest extremes.
It is like watching a friend who you have counselled not to do something destructive ignore you and tell you that you are an idiot. All you can do is wait to help pick up the pieces, or not as the case may be.
Sometimes the only cure for right wing fucknuttery is too much RW fucknuttery.
nath @ #364 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 10:33 am
You should all put this Nathism in the bank.
Especially you Cud.
PuffyTMD @ #379 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 10:40 am
That last bit I agree with.
I hope Morrison does for broke.
We don’t want to change, we just voted not to. So we are probably a lot further away from positive change than that.
I hope Morrison goes for broke.
tom hawkins:
Yep pretty much. And it’s very, very bad.
By the way, if we haven’t said already “Big thanks to WB”.
Cud Chewer @ 10:24
“Between campaigns Labor sits on its arse and pretends that the good guys should win because they are the good guys. ”
Well said. But I don’t think that attitude changes even when they’re campaigning.
The same criticism can be made even more potently against the Greens.
Hey all.. Fwark what a pile of steaming dung yesterday turned into. 🙁
Actually didn’t find out til later in the night after scruitineering finished.
Got the function and saddness, yes…….but also a real capacity to come back from here. No bloody bed-wetters there. 🙂
Yup, we lost this one (and i’ll offer no opinions on why till i see more of the numbers and distribution). We suck it up, take enough time to feel whatever we have to feel, take the time to see what the new landscape looks like, adapt, survive and fight.
So where actually are we?? …another govt…for however long they hold it together…with the economically illiterate kiddies in charge again. Silver lining is that Tone’s gorn, but enough of their right wing out there brigade is still in place to cause them problems. Look for tanties in the Senate.
Depending on how the final numbers shake out in the Senate, we could be back here in 18 mths. You gota remember that the born to rules really really don’t “do” the negotiation thing. If they wind up in minority in both Houses?? Plenty of room for guerilla warfare in the name of the common good there people. And, it gives us somewhere to let our inner bitches out to play.
The sadness i feel on this is that there was a chance of a govt that would operate on a sustainable basis (on fiscal / climate issues). But, Fear and Skeer seems to have just carried the day. The electorate just didn’t have it in them and curled up into what they think is their “safe” place…but actually isn’t.
Will be hard for a future opposition or even Govt to take worthwhile policy that has winners and losers (as they all do) to the electorate. Not the time for small target stuff, there is REAL and IMPORTANT stuff happening out there, but its what we will get for a while. Will be interesting to see how the final count plays out.
My fears for the immediate future?
Something like global recession in 9-16mths with the Coalition in charge.
Coalition will focus on cutting spending, while going harder on tax cuts to business and the top end of town.
They will continue to ignore the need for structural repair of the revenue side of the budget.
So….accept the result.
Calmly float above the sea of gloat .
Let it wash around you off down the creek and onto some abyssal plain where really ugly fish will suck it up and piss it out.
When its gone, you, me are still here and still well up for a fight worth having.
How Good is THAT!! 🙂
Poll Bludgers
You only have to look to Puffy TMD calling everyone voted for the LNP murderers and last night rapists to see why the ALP lost. Why is someone like that allowed to post this vile drivel he is barely if any better than Fraser Anning yet Puffy and his ilk are seen as being from the good side so can say some hideously awful things about 52% of Australians.
Would a poster be allowed to say these things about the left calling ALP supporters rapists and murderers and not be booted off. No and that is the issue outside of this bubble as well. You must regain the centre, distance yourself from Get up and the full Loon. Puffy and his mob scare people yet they are seen as part of the left.
Turnbull would have got those swings. It is the voters. It is greed and self-interest at play. It is being wilfully ignorant and easily lead. Australia deserves what it voted for.
@PuffyTMD….”It is the time of greed and self-interest. If Labor caters to that, then it will not be Labor. I would go so far as to vote through everything the Lib/Nats want. Let Australians cop what they voted for in its fullest extremes.”……
Yep, my sentiment as well. When the poor dears start complaining just turn around and say well I didn’t vote for them…..did you….?
Does he? I hear this constantly, but anytime I see him speaking, he’s even more wooden and less charismatic than Shorten. He’s also shown particularly poor judgement on quite a few occasions. While, yes, I can see how the juxtoposition between his blokey, working class persona and inner-city leftie politics could be a plus, it could also be just as much of an albatross on his back.
I like Dreyfus, Plibs, or Burke for the leadership, myself. While Burke’s social conservatism bothers me, I can’t deny that he’s an excellent performer, able to come across as a genuinely nice guy, articulately argue a case, and delivering cutting critiques of his opponents, depending on the situation. I’m at the point now where I’d much rather just see Labor win the damn thing than to pander to my own ideological priorities.
100% agree, if this is, as we proved yesterday, what Australia is, who we are, where we are at, then Labor can’t win, and I wouldn’t support a Labor that did. We chose racism, corruption, lies and zero policy. I don’t want to be anything to do with the kind of disgusting party that can win this kind of election.
Kind of hard to argue with this, I have to say.
imacca:
Love your enthusiasm!
Steelydan
The point is that we know Puffy from years ago and she is a generous soul so we forgive her when she goes ape.
Anyone who didn’t vote ALP is a murderer?
The ARU has just sacked its’ best (by far) player just before the World Cup for proselytising his religious viewpoint.
Anyone wonder why when an anonymous pollster contacts you a conservative, especially religious conservatives, are going to not disclose their true opinions? The left have made it a very high risk action to disclose your opinion- doing so can put your job, your personal safety and your family at risk.
It was just too progressive an agenda, and left open a massive flank for a broadside attack. Labor spent too much time defending and explaining. It left the Libs free to run their misleading and extremely negative messaging, relentlessly.
Scare campaigns are built on nubs of truth. In this case, there were two primary factoids. One, the fact was that Labor was going to increase revenue. Second, that people don’t trust/like Shorten. Thus, the ‘tax you to death’, and ‘when they run out of money, they will come after yours’ messages, which were devastatingly effective.
Labor needs to stay competitive, find a good leader (I personally like Chalmers, not only because he is from QLD, and is a very effective communicator), and trim down the agenda. Win first, then expand the agenda in office, build on success.
FWIW, the winner of this election faces a tough Senate. If Labor is to win office, they need a solid victory for progressive candidates (Labor, Green and progressive independents), then they can implement the agenda without spending too much capital amending and negotiating to get legislation through the Senate.
If I was in Labor, I’d vote through the Coalition tax changes. Bake in the reduction in revenue, and watch the Coalition start squirming when projected revenues are wound back, particularly if growth and wages continue to stagnate.
Queensland is a real pickle. Labor needs to work out how to deal with Adani. Perhaps Palusczszuk should just approve it, subject to strict environmental protections. Once the issue is neutralised, Queenslanders will see that there are only a relatively small number of jobs in play, and Adani and coal are not going to bring jobs back to the region en masse. Maybe then, the pendulum will swing, and Queenslanders will choose a party with a reform agenda.
Who knows. For now, the Morrishow continues. Let’s see how long it is before the Libs start shooting themselves in the feet again (maybe it will be on one of Scomo’s pet topics, religious freedom, God knows we ‘need’ that debate like another three years of this clown). Or maybe they don’t, and they just ignore climate change, the climate change Independents, and the suburban voters who swung against traditional Coalition strongholds. Let’s see how that works out for them.
firstly I don’t think most voters know puffy, so really really stupid comment. And yeah cool of you supporting torture and murder, you rock.