Since last week’s post dedicated to the current reading of BludgerTrack (which is being updated with new polling data as it becomes available), its measure of the situation is that Labor’s two-party preferred lead is effectively unchanged, but that it has gone backwards on the seat projection due to the distribution of the swing between the states. As ever, this reflects the intense electoral sensitivity of Queensland, which punches well above its weight in terms of marginal seats.
Last time I sounded a note of caution about its reading that Labor stood to gain eight seats there, which was quite out of line with the expectations of both major parties. Since then, we have had two pieces of state-level data that have taken the edge off – the Queensland-only poll by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail last week, which showed the Coalition leading 51-49, and the Newspoll state breakdowns that had the Queensland result at 50-50. This has moderated the situation to the extent that Labor is now credited with only five gains in the state. Nonetheless, this is almost single-handedly sufficient to get them to a majority.
The encouragement for Labor doesn’t end there, because the Newspoll numbers have further boosted their reading in Victoria, where they are now projected to gain three seats from the Coalition, together with the electoral gift of the new seat of Fraser in their western Melbourne heartland. However, BludgerTrack is now showing a remarkable recovery for the Coalition in New South Wales, where they are actually projected to pick up a swing on two-party preferred, though without gaining any new seats. This is a little more favourable for them than the general impression, which is that they are likely to lose Gilmore and Reid while perhaps gaining Lindsay.
BludgerTrack also suggests the worst danger for the Coalition has passed in Western Australia, where they are now projected to lose only one seat. It also suggests the Liberals should be able to maintain the status quo in South Australia – or arguably slightly improve it, given it is Labor who will be wearing the cut in the state’s representation from 11 seats to 10. This notion was further encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Liberals maintaining a lead in Boothby, which is state’s strongest prospect of a gain for Labor.
However, it must be acknowledged here that there are a few holes in the BludgerTrack methodology, specifically relating to Tasmania and the territories, and non-major party contests. State-level data is only available for the five mainland states, so BludgerTrack has nothing to offer on the much-touted prospect of the Liberals gaining either or both of Bass and Braddon in the state’s north, where it is simply assumed that the swing will be in line with the overall national result. The same goes for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has been the subject of optimistic noises from the Coalition throughout the campaign. Whether such noises are justified remains anyone’s guess.
As for minor parties and independents, BludgerTrack simply assumes a status quo result, with Wentworth and Clark (formerly Denison) to remain with their independent incumbents, Indi to go from one independent to another, and Melbourne, Kennedy and Mayo to respectively remain with the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. I had hoped that media-commissioned seat polling might offer guidance here, but only in the case of Mayo has such a poll emerged. The consensus seems to be that Wentworth will return to the Liberals, that Indi could either stay independent or go with one or other Coalition party, and that the other seats should remain as they are.
The full BludgerTrack results at state-level, together with leadership rating trends and a database of poll results, can be found through the following link:
Not featured in BludgerTrack is the Roy Morgan series, which I decided came to party too late for its form to be properly calibrated. However, its latest weekly result is interesting in being the first national poll of the campaign period to record a move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. The poll now has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 38.5% (steady), Labor 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 4% (steady) and the United Australia Party 3.5% (steady). The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1265, which is larger than its other recent polls, which have been around the 700 to 800 mark.
Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Queensland seat of Forde.
C@T
Perhaps Dutton will give the family a last minute reprieve in the hope of gaining votes with a big news splash. It wouldn’t matter a tinker’s cuss to him that they have lived in tension for months.
It seemed a bit odd to me at the time that Keating would ring a Melbourne radio station to attack Dutton. In hindsight, however, it would appear sensible politics given that in Melbourne at least Dutton’s as popular as the proverbial pork sanger at a certain Jewish event.
Late Riser:
I’m hoping Labor launch some serious investigations with teeth into some of the coalition govt’s more dubious decisions. Watergate, Fraudband and the GBRF gift being chief among them.
“IoM says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 7:17 am
I want to know why John Alexander was handing out HTV for Molan and not the endorsed Liberal one. I had Alexander in the moderates camp.”
No. It’s all about Libs v Nats – what “Coalition”?
booleanbach @ #94 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 8:13 am
May the IVth be with you.
“It seemed a bit odd to me at the time that Keating would ring a Melbourne radio station to attack Dutton.”.
He was interviewed in person by Faine.
Karma!
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/the-name-on-the-building-became-a-problem-trump-tower-is-now-one-of-new-york-s-least-desirable-luxury-buildings-20190515-p51neu.html
The “Bean Poll” is looking good for Labor in Farrer.
Burgey
Kevin Bonham tweeted on this – in the same 5 week period the number of national polls is fewer than 2016 which in turn was fewer than 2013. From memory something in the order of a 22-18-14 decline
As long as we get to keep the forests who cares if they are empty?
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/hunting-40-per-cent-decline-large-mammals-tropical-forests-a8913096.html
Greensborough Growler @ #107 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 8:24 am
A bit unfair on the Greens to label them hasbeans?
Mavis D: It seemed a bit odd to me at the time that Keating would ring a Melbourne radio station to attack Dutton.
Keating was in the ABC Melbourne studio talking to Faine, and many things were discussed.
Cheers Rocket
@heycourtt
Exclusive: The sight of One Nation HTV flyers at a Liberal pre-polling table has the Energy Minister strongly denying his team is lending a hand to Pauline Hanson’s troops. #ausvotes #humevotes
https://2600.skynews.com.au/minister-denies-being-a-stones-throw-away-from-one-nation/
@lynlinking
Dark side of Sky at night: Analysis of Murdoch TV network reveals extent of anti-Labor comments : there were more than seven times the number of negative comments directed at Labor than at the Liberals –194 negatives to 27 respectively. excerpt
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/14/andrew-bolt-sky-news-labor/
“DVC @ #61 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 7:27 am
One point of interest nobody is talking about is that the Centre Alliance are contesting 3 lower house seat in SA, and we’ve only got any real indication on voting intention in Mayo. In the absence of any polling of Barker or Grey the only indication of how they might go there comes from the voterchoice survey. This week the methodology was changed to only give their user pool the options that actually exist in their seats. Yet CA somehow has 2% of the National vote! With only 3/151 seats!! That suggests they’re getting 100% of the vote in every one of those seats!!! This is obviously wrong, but it does point to there potentially being a boil-over on Barker and Grey.
—
Those two seats are among the sleepers to watch IMHO. CA has hardly rated a mention in this election despite getting above 20 percent 0f the PV and three senators at the last election; Their votes have to go somewhere if not to CA and 60% of their preference flows went to Labor in Boothby, for example.”
Yes. Why didn’t CA stand in Boothby?
Regarding where they are standing, Barker is the seat to watch.
Who gets the franklincredits:
https://theconversation.com/at-last-an-answer-to-the-5-billion-question-who-gets-the-imputation-cheques-labor-will-take-away-117075
The religion thing is interestingly regional.
I have spent at least 10 years living in each of Sydney and Melbourne…
Melbourne is not anti-religion, but it is still considered a quiet, personal thing. Old-money, Church of England style religion is fine.
Sydney is far more American in it’s religious tastes. That’s why this is being beaten up in Sydney far more than anywhere else.
Jacinda Ardern on the world stage
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/jacinda-ardern-s-paris-pitch-a-sign-of-tech-giants-power-20190514-p51n7b.html
I wonder if she was sought out by one or more of the G7 or wrangled herself the invite? I suspect an anti-FB coalition.
The article makes some sound points, including a criticism of Australia’s “knee-jerk” reaction, which I interpret as making it harder to bring regulation to the Social Media platforms.
“Kevin Bonham tweeted on this – in the same 5 week period the number of national polls is fewer than 2016 which in turn was fewer than 2013. From memory something in the order of a 22-18-14 decline”
The polls in the Victorian election dried up too when it appeared that Guy wouldn’t make it. It didn’t stop the election, though, or Labor’s 57.3 result. No polls is generally a sign of bad news for the Libs.
If you want to raise your blood pressure, listen into Jon Faine this morning, when he backs up the Keating interview yesterday with one with Alexander Downer.
Morning all
Michael Smith news is best ignored. Who can forget the malestrom he caused with respect to Julia Gillard, etc.
He is a bone fide grub with no moral ethics. One saving grace is that Larry Pickering no longer inhabits the earth!
Michael Smith is the bloke who took charge of the campaign against Julia Gillard in Renovationgate, ended up sharing a house with Kathy Jackson and her “c***struck” judge boyfriend. He then famously left this triangular arrangement, reportedly after a physical altercation with said (now ex) judge.
Peter Faris, now a retired SC (thank God), is on record as lobbying for the establishment of an Australian Torture Commission, whereby terrorists could be interrogated by Torture Officers using the latest non-destructive, “pure pain” techniques such as, for example, needles under the fingernails.
The re-hashed “rape” allegations against Shorten have been doing the rounds on Facebook for some time. There is no evidence, new or old, to support the claims, only the claim that the alleged victim has been seeking witnesses.
This was Smith’s tactic in the Gillard matter too: innuendo, red herrings, shady witnesses and quasi “legal opinions” from retired barristers and/or solicitors.
People who believe the latest allegations will never, repeat never un-believe them, just as they will never un-believe the Gillard story, the “Chinese airbase outside Karratha” myth, the “Christchurch was a Mossad operation” theory, or the “Australia will be under Sharia law by 2025, mark my words” meme.
(Yes, yes, I know I argued here that MH370 had been shot down near Diego Garcia, but I admitted at the time that this was just a rope-a-dope theoretical exercise to drag in those who automatically believed the plane’s wreckage would be found quickly, because they read in the newspapers that it would be. Who knew it would still be not found – besides a few fittings – to date, years later?)
Smith and Faris, plus most of the people they associate with, are the worst kinds of charlatans, bullshitters and con merchants. Even News Corp would hesitate to associate themselves with these goofballs, given their track records.
I do note that Smith and Faris have tried to use the eventual success of uncorroborated witness/victim testimony in the Pell case as justification for reopening the Shorten “case”. This is the danger I warned against, and why Pell is very properly appealing his verdict. Once you open the door to such practices it’s not long until the real nutters try to use them.
Disclaimer:I admit I am not good at Melbourne geography.
I thought at the time it was politically unwise for Shorten to joke about being safe to go out at night in his speech a few days ago. The risk was always that there would be a significant event at night in or near one of the marginals that Labor was targeting and he would be viewed negatively by those who have concerns (legitimate or otherwise).
lizzie @ #100 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 8:20 am
So angry. I don’t think there’s a silver lining. And sometimes you have to believe the woman behind the man, who proudly informs us “He never changes his mind.” I wouldn’t be surprised if the family go into hiding until after the election, specially if they have strong community support.
booleanbach @ #110 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 8:27 am
Perhaps, “Never Wassers” is the better epitaph.
Thank you BK for today’s Dawn Patrol.
Great cartoons. Zanetti with a comma probably better than .jpg.
I like this article from Peter Fitzsimons.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/the-most-difficult-question-of-all-on-election-day-20190513-p51mq6.html
Dammit – Mr. Anning’s crew appear not to be represented on my printout of the NSW Senate voting form. Mr. Palmer likewise. If wrong about this apologies – and advise please.
Seems I will have to sort through the dribs and drabs for myself.
Help please – last and second last ❓
zenith
Jon Faine is what is now an ‘old-style’ broadcaster who believes in equal time.
@mattburke
“Labor has a much better climate change policy than the Coalition”- Tony Abbott.
Late Riser
I’ve already banished the link from my memory, but there is a puff piece about Dutton today that says that all the locals who have known him for years think he’s the bee’s knees. A lovely boy.
@AndrewDessler
Prediction of the future from 1982 by @exxonmobil , along with data showing how it has actually evolved. Exxon’s predictions were extremely accurate. #ExxonKnew @GeoffreySupran @NaomiOreskes
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6iXEjVWsAIt40I?format=jpg&name=900×900
RatesAnalyst @ #117 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 8:31 am
Shorten and Labor should have stayed well the fuck away from it. There’s no way they’re winning that one.
Talk about climate. Talk about ending corruption. Talk about specific corruptions like watergate and reefgate and tax rorts for the wealthy. Talk about increasing wages and reducing taxes for working Australians. Talk about Barnaby’s drunk tweeting, even. But don’t talk about whether the PM thinks hell is a place where gays go when they die ffs.
@AndrewDessler
Prediction of the future from 1982 by @exxonmobil , along with data showing how it has actually evolved. Exxon’s predictions were extremely accurate. #ExxonKnew @GeoffreySupran @NaomiOreskes
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6iXEjVWsAIt40I?format=jpg&name=900×900
They knew….
Jesus, this Downer interview is a train wreck. He’s absolutely clueless.
RA
What I find interesting is that it’s either desperation or denial with the whole religion thing.
A sane party would take note of an extremely clear expression on an issue. Especially when they set it up themselves. We know how people will vote in marginal seats on this religion issue.
We found out how much spin is given to the influence of the religious right versus the reality. The whole American thing regarding Sydney is also overhyped. Of course that’s no surprise that’s also an American thing.
Zoidlord
Thats Abbott saying that Steggal said the Labor party had a better climate change policy. Not Abbott saying Labor has a better policy.
Sounds hopeful.
Alice Workman has interviewed most of the potential Independent cross benchers about who they will support in the event of a hung Parliament.
GG
If you’re still around. Any thoughts on how this rape allegation is likely to play out?
Ifonly
Shorten’s one-liner was cut off on several tv snippets I saw before the punch line
.. because they are afraid of running in to Peter Dutton !
It changed the vibe of the sound bite a lot
AR
Nah. Labor has won that one. Look at the Marriage Survey results.
Look at what has actually happened to Folau.
The whole let’s not discuss religion to hide the ugly hate speech aspect the PM is excusing is exactly what the LNP wants. They get the dog whistle without the consequences.
Labor was right to stand up on the issue in reaction.
I thought we weren’t giving this oxygen?
Zoidlord @ #130 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 8:42 am
Yes. The only surprise is why we didn’t care. Mining is hard. It attracts very smart people. There is also a lot of money in it. They knew. We didn’t care.
(404 error on the link)
I think Abbott was quoting Zali Steggal’s opinion re. Labor’s Climate Change policy, not expressing his own.
Darn @ #136 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 8:49 am
It’s been dealt with before. There is no published new information. The publisher is an undischarged Bankrupt. So, I’m guessing MSM will stay away.
Given the lateness in the day, I doubt it will have any impact.
GG
“I said love… I said pet I said love I said Barnaby….”
Thanks. I will be laughing about that (and the trickle down all over you) all day.
Late Riser @ #139 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 8:51 am
Thanks GG.
Thanks KayJay. 🙏
Thanks KayJay