Since last week’s post dedicated to the current reading of BludgerTrack (which is being updated with new polling data as it becomes available), its measure of the situation is that Labor’s two-party preferred lead is effectively unchanged, but that it has gone backwards on the seat projection due to the distribution of the swing between the states. As ever, this reflects the intense electoral sensitivity of Queensland, which punches well above its weight in terms of marginal seats.
Last time I sounded a note of caution about its reading that Labor stood to gain eight seats there, which was quite out of line with the expectations of both major parties. Since then, we have had two pieces of state-level data that have taken the edge off – the Queensland-only poll by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail last week, which showed the Coalition leading 51-49, and the Newspoll state breakdowns that had the Queensland result at 50-50. This has moderated the situation to the extent that Labor is now credited with only five gains in the state. Nonetheless, this is almost single-handedly sufficient to get them to a majority.
The encouragement for Labor doesn’t end there, because the Newspoll numbers have further boosted their reading in Victoria, where they are now projected to gain three seats from the Coalition, together with the electoral gift of the new seat of Fraser in their western Melbourne heartland. However, BludgerTrack is now showing a remarkable recovery for the Coalition in New South Wales, where they are actually projected to pick up a swing on two-party preferred, though without gaining any new seats. This is a little more favourable for them than the general impression, which is that they are likely to lose Gilmore and Reid while perhaps gaining Lindsay.
BludgerTrack also suggests the worst danger for the Coalition has passed in Western Australia, where they are now projected to lose only one seat. It also suggests the Liberals should be able to maintain the status quo in South Australia – or arguably slightly improve it, given it is Labor who will be wearing the cut in the state’s representation from 11 seats to 10. This notion was further encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Liberals maintaining a lead in Boothby, which is state’s strongest prospect of a gain for Labor.
However, it must be acknowledged here that there are a few holes in the BludgerTrack methodology, specifically relating to Tasmania and the territories, and non-major party contests. State-level data is only available for the five mainland states, so BludgerTrack has nothing to offer on the much-touted prospect of the Liberals gaining either or both of Bass and Braddon in the state’s north, where it is simply assumed that the swing will be in line with the overall national result. The same goes for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has been the subject of optimistic noises from the Coalition throughout the campaign. Whether such noises are justified remains anyone’s guess.
As for minor parties and independents, BludgerTrack simply assumes a status quo result, with Wentworth and Clark (formerly Denison) to remain with their independent incumbents, Indi to go from one independent to another, and Melbourne, Kennedy and Mayo to respectively remain with the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. I had hoped that media-commissioned seat polling might offer guidance here, but only in the case of Mayo has such a poll emerged. The consensus seems to be that Wentworth will return to the Liberals, that Indi could either stay independent or go with one or other Coalition party, and that the other seats should remain as they are.
The full BludgerTrack results at state-level, together with leadership rating trends and a database of poll results, can be found through the following link:
Not featured in BludgerTrack is the Roy Morgan series, which I decided came to party too late for its form to be properly calibrated. However, its latest weekly result is interesting in being the first national poll of the campaign period to record a move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. The poll now has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 38.5% (steady), Labor 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 4% (steady) and the United Australia Party 3.5% (steady). The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1265, which is larger than its other recent polls, which have been around the 700 to 800 mark.
Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Queensland seat of Forde.
GG
Thanks for that summary.
https://www.smh.com.au/education/private-school-funding-growth-outstrips-public-schools-despite-gonski-20190514-p51naa.html
True to form the Tiser doesn’t mention the election on the front page.
Greensborough Growler @ #89 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 6:09 am
I think with Lynne and that Independent guy who was on Insiders on Sunday, we have our first President and Vice President in The Republic Of Australia.
But but but… he has an honorary doctorate at Adelaide Uni who also made him Visiting Professor of international politics – even allowing him to do regular lectures (one of which I was unfortunate enough to have to sit through).
Greensborough Growler @ #135 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 8:47 am
Looks like quite a few of them could end up supporting a Labor government if the Coalition didn’t come up with some actual climate policies
The coalition can’t come up with those policies because of their internal divisions.
Perhaps the large numbers of pre-poll voting are the result of Morrison drawing the election timing out for his possible advantage, added to the incredibly long days of non-Parl sitting.
I’m a bit disappointed that there wasn’t a “democracy sausage” vs. “democracy stake” cartoon this morning.
It’s worth noting the difference from the Gillard era from Newscorp about the prospect of a hung parliament with that idea if it means the LNP clinging to power.
Has Newscorp done a positive thinking course?
Prepolling graph, HT Casey Briggs
A great many of the independents are already staring the issue in the face that confronted Oakeshott and Windsor in 2010: no matter how much they and their seats are conservative by nature, the core issues that led them to run as independents and the key issues that would lead to them winning as independents if they win are issues where they can deal with Labor but not with the Coalition.
Take Zali Steggall. There is no way the Coalition is coming to the table on climate change; they haven’t had a real climate policy since dumping Turnbull as leader the first time, and dumped him as leader a second time rather than implement even a milquetoast policy, and people like O’Dwyer, Pyne, Laundy who might have still lobbied for such a deal with Steggall are gone.
Whereas Labor can negotiate something with Steggall on the economic package. They will have planned out a variety of possibilities for dealing with the Senate cross-bench on this anyway.
Similarly Sharkie. “I support the Libs, but my demands are a proper ICAC, protection for the Bight, the NEG, real action on climate change” all of which are Labor policy announcements which the Libs haven’t and won’t match. Wink wink, Rebecca.
Not according to ScoMo 🙁
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-20/reserve-bank-philip-lowe-warns-of-low-wage-growth-impact/10515756
Greensborough Growler, Thank you for the Alice Workman summary.
Here’s my summary of the summary.
Zali Steggal: Supports the Coalition (Lib-Lite)
Oliver Yates: Supports Labor (Lab-Lite)
Kerryn Phelps: Supports Labor on climate change and the Coalition on the rest (Lib-Lite)
Rob Oakshott: not telling (Lib-Lite)
Andrew Wilkie: not telling, issue by issue (Lib-Lite)
Rebekha Sharkie: Supports most of Labor’s policies (Lib-gruntled)
Helen Haines: None of them are any good (Lib-Lite)
Jesica Whelan: Supports the Coalition (Lib-Lite)
Bob Katter: I don’t know, bribe me. (Lib-Lite)
Kevin Mack: Supports the Coalition (Lib-Lite)
Julia Banks: In hiding (Lib-gruntled)
(I don’t know these people, so the “-Lite” badges are just a guess.)
Alice Workman has forgotten about Huw Kingston in Hume.
Re the so called attack by Shorten on the religious beliefs of Morrison.
What a crock of shit. Not once did Shorten even mention religion. It was all about Morrison refusing to call out attacks on the gay community in this country.
Politically in a broader canvas it is all about calling out Morrison mouthing support for issues in which he obviously does not believe.
Action on climate change. Gay marriage. etc etc etc.
All issues on which Morrison does the talk but is very uncomfortable doing the walk. What does the man stand for ?
Morrison was the one who mentioned his religious beliefs not Shorten. Shorten was opening the door to a much broader secular look at Morrison.
Business is locking in a Labor win
When Fortescue Metals Group joined Westpac Banking Corp in pulling forward dividends to beat Labor’s June 30 franking credit reforms, it was a sure sign big business thinks there will be a change of federal government on Saturday.
FMG founder Andrew Forrest surprised the market by declaring a “special” second-half dividend of 60¢ a share, payable on June 24. This is a smart strategic move because it means FMG shareholders hit by Labor’s changes can get the fully franked dividends before the law changes at the end of the financial year.
It is distinctly possible other companies will join the dividend franking pull- forward strategy if Labor wins on Saturday.
The FMG dividend declared on Tuesday is, in effect, a downpayment on the final full-year dividend, which is normally declared with the release of full year financial results in August and paid in October.
..
ANZ Banking Group and National Australia Bank showed no imagination whatsoever and simply stuck with their usual July dividend payment dates of July 1 and July 4 respectively. This was a slap in the face for shareholders who will be negatively affected by Labor’s franking credit changes.
..
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/business-is-locking-in-a-labor-win-20190514-p51nbw
Michael “dog with a bone” Rowland interrogates Josh Frydenberg over the Leadership change. This obviously bites as an issue out in Voter land.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1128424786944651264
Yes
#NoMoreMorrison
Late Riser
Do you mean “gruntled” as an antonym of “disgruntled”?
I think Julia Banks is rather disgruntled!
GG
The LNP won’t like NewsBreakfast tomorrow.
Direct from Higgins. Reminding the nation the LNP can’t even promise the same person as Treasurer after the election. That’s some stability
phylactella @ #166 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 9:26 am
I was trying for cute, “Lib-gruntled” as a special form of disgruntled.
Michael Rowland didn’t interrogate Fraudenberg at all – like other ABC journos he just let him rave on about “Labor’s new taxes”, thereby aiding the perpetuation of this lie.
There is no way that Wilkie could support a Coalition government under Morrison given the demographics of Hobart.
Why is Jessica Whelan even being interviewed? She’s a disendorsed ex-Liberal nutter hoping to do a Hanson, but there is no rightward wave that exists in the environment like in ’96. Do the mainstream media really expect her to pull this off? It wouldn’t be a massive surprise but it would be a sad indictment on the people of Lyons.
As for the other independents I assume they support the Coalition unless they tell us otherwise.
The leadership change is old news. Time for something more substantial.
The last few days are awful aren’t they? Absence of a lot of polling and we’re all just wanting the counting to start. Keep looking at my watch seemingly every half hour.
“Michael Rowland didn’t interrogate Fraudenberg at all”
Rowland could interrogate a packet of chips. The guy is useless.
Burgey
Thursday is going to be good. Poll avalanche
Burgey
Same here at work – hanging out for an Essential maybe early tomorrow morning and then the drip feed of ten Newspoll marginals from 10am
Cameron C. @ #170 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 9:34 am
Excellent. Thanks. I’ve adjusted my list to read
Andrew Wilkie: not telling, issue by issue (Indi)
Absolutely fantastic interview on abc this morning with Rob oakeshott and Phelps. Interviewer tried plenty of tired gotcha sh@t questions but the indies were so strong! Was cheering down the highway. If you were still voting for the coalition after that interview you really are beyond redemption… Rob Oakeshott for PM in my book.
If only that Conversation analysis of excess franking credits could be made mandatory reading for everyone enrolled.
Of course, I realise a lot of tories can’t read but they could get it as an audio book.
guytaur says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 9:28 am
GG
The LNP won’t like NewsBreakfast tomorrow.
Direct from Higgins. Reminding the nation the LNP can’t even promise the same person as Treasurer after the election. That’s some stability
Frydenberg is the member for Kooyong. Higgins has been held by O’Dwyer, who is not re-contesting.
The LNP will welcome the chance to promote their campaign to hold Higgins. The Lib-kin will welcome the chance to attack Labor in Higgins. Labor will fight them all in Higgins.
Sohar @ #173 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 9:37 am
I doubt if even Rowland himself would consider that he’s a real journalist. ABC presenter, maybe.
guytaur
Yes hopefully Ipsos also then big Newspoll Friday .
In Chisholm today – the Liberals have definitely given up here. So that’s plus one!
adrian
Presenter is a good description. Ability to listen to producer through earphone and repeat without variation essential.
D&M, I did answer your Cromwell question somewhere. But to reiterate, not a fan. Not a member of the Protestant elite either!
Was in Box Hill yesterday (Chisholm) – saw one big Gladys Liu poster on the wall of a major restaurant and one Kevin Andrews (Menzies) advertisement on the ground in the form of litter. Not a single campaigner in sight.
Hard to tell what any of this means.
The list of Indies goes part of the way towards illustrating the depth and breadth of action in Rightist politics. The inclusion of ON/National Socialist, Palmists, Cories, Anning-ites, RUA, Yellow Vest, Lib-Dem and sundry others fills out the tableau. We should add the Labor-frustrating efforts of the Lib-kin to get the full picture.
The Red Shirts and the Unions are the only political voices that stand between the working people of Australia and barbarism.
Briefly
My bad sorry. My mistake will be common to many.
Edit: You miss the point. Higgins too should be a safe seat for the LNP. Confirms Labor to win government. Could ignite bandwagon effect
Frydenberg going on about ‘record spending’ is so ridiculous with population growth. People who accept it are just non-thinkers.
briefly
says:
The LNP will welcome the chance to promote their campaign to hold Higgins. The Lib-kin will welcome the chance to attack Labor in Higgins. Labor will fight them all in Higgins.
___________________________________
Briefly’s been arguing that the Greens should target some Liberal seats. When they do, they are attacking Labor in Higgins! What a nutter.
You probably meant “voices”, but “vices” made me smile.
In Higgins, as elsewhere, the Lib-kin will use the campaign opportunity to attack Labor. They invariably do.
Lately….autocorrect…made me groan.. 🙂
Oh god bless you sonar – First time I’ve been flamed and straw-manned! I feel like a real member of the (dysfunctional) PB family now.
I love the way the Coalition are campaigning on “we have record spending” and also on “Labor always spends more”.
Not sure how that will work out for them …
“briefly says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 9:49 am
The list of Indies goes part of the way towards illustrating the depth and breadth of action in Rightist politics. The inclusion of ON/National Socialist, Palmists, Cories, Anning-ites, RUA, Yellow Vest, Lib-Dem and sundry others fills out the tableau. We should add the Labor-frustrating efforts of the Lib-kin to get the full picture.
The Red Shirts and the Unions are the only political voices that stand between the working people of Australia and barbarism.”
So to summarise your opinion, Labor is the only “true light on the hill” and all others are traitors to the cause, irrespective of whether their opinions are better, worse or the same as Labor.
The political spectrum is broad, and Labor doesn’t have an exclusive ownership on “the truth”.
5 minutes until the first of 10 seat polls?
I was volunteering at a pre-poll place yesterday. The place is swamped with Rightists of every hue. The Red Shirts and Change the Rules were present, as were the Lib-kin. The Lib-kin spent the morning trying to distract us with appeals to take up their policies. We explained we had to change the Government first. They took on a sorrowful look and said they hoped we could. Then they said they hoped we would not win ‘too well’, but would have to do deals with them.
I let them know they should dissolve themselves; that they were an obstacle to reform.
briefly
says:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 9:51 am
In Higgins, as elsewhere, the Lib-kin will use the campaign opportunity to attack Labor. They invariably do.
__________________________
That’s what happens with 2 competing political parties. It’s called democracy. Former ALP voters love voting for the Greens, as evidenced by the former ALP seats now represented by the Greens!