BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

New state-level data finds a narrowing in Labor’s advantage, but also suggests the Coalition’s recovery has been too little, too late.

Since last week’s post dedicated to the current reading of BludgerTrack (which is being updated with new polling data as it becomes available), its measure of the situation is that Labor’s two-party preferred lead is effectively unchanged, but that it has gone backwards on the seat projection due to the distribution of the swing between the states. As ever, this reflects the intense electoral sensitivity of Queensland, which punches well above its weight in terms of marginal seats.

Last time I sounded a note of caution about its reading that Labor stood to gain eight seats there, which was quite out of line with the expectations of both major parties. Since then, we have had two pieces of state-level data that have taken the edge off – the Queensland-only poll by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail last week, which showed the Coalition leading 51-49, and the Newspoll state breakdowns that had the Queensland result at 50-50. This has moderated the situation to the extent that Labor is now credited with only five gains in the state. Nonetheless, this is almost single-handedly sufficient to get them to a majority.

The encouragement for Labor doesn’t end there, because the Newspoll numbers have further boosted their reading in Victoria, where they are now projected to gain three seats from the Coalition, together with the electoral gift of the new seat of Fraser in their western Melbourne heartland. However, BludgerTrack is now showing a remarkable recovery for the Coalition in New South Wales, where they are actually projected to pick up a swing on two-party preferred, though without gaining any new seats. This is a little more favourable for them than the general impression, which is that they are likely to lose Gilmore and Reid while perhaps gaining Lindsay.

BludgerTrack also suggests the worst danger for the Coalition has passed in Western Australia, where they are now projected to lose only one seat. It also suggests the Liberals should be able to maintain the status quo in South Australia – or arguably slightly improve it, given it is Labor who will be wearing the cut in the state’s representation from 11 seats to 10. This notion was further encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Liberals maintaining a lead in Boothby, which is state’s strongest prospect of a gain for Labor.

However, it must be acknowledged here that there are a few holes in the BludgerTrack methodology, specifically relating to Tasmania and the territories, and non-major party contests. State-level data is only available for the five mainland states, so BludgerTrack has nothing to offer on the much-touted prospect of the Liberals gaining either or both of Bass and Braddon in the state’s north, where it is simply assumed that the swing will be in line with the overall national result. The same goes for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has been the subject of optimistic noises from the Coalition throughout the campaign. Whether such noises are justified remains anyone’s guess.

As for minor parties and independents, BludgerTrack simply assumes a status quo result, with Wentworth and Clark (formerly Denison) to remain with their independent incumbents, Indi to go from one independent to another, and Melbourne, Kennedy and Mayo to respectively remain with the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. I had hoped that media-commissioned seat polling might offer guidance here, but only in the case of Mayo has such a poll emerged. The consensus seems to be that Wentworth will return to the Liberals, that Indi could either stay independent or go with one or other Coalition party, and that the other seats should remain as they are.

The full BludgerTrack results at state-level, together with leadership rating trends and a database of poll results, can be found through the following link:

Not featured in BludgerTrack is the Roy Morgan series, which I decided came to party too late for its form to be properly calibrated. However, its latest weekly result is interesting in being the first national poll of the campaign period to record a move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. The poll now has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 38.5% (steady), Labor 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 4% (steady) and the United Australia Party 3.5% (steady). The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1265, which is larger than its other recent polls, which have been around the 700 to 800 mark.

Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Queensland seat of Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,540 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

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  3. There is no narrowing Labor looks to be extending the lead according to the opinon polling , the libs/nats are not competitive with the combined primary 36%-39% in majority of states

    Comfortable Labor majority on those figures

  5. Campaign
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison will begin his day in Launceston. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s campaigning continues in Perth.
    09:30 AM
    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will attend a business breakfast event in Perth.

    And David Speers summation…

    The media, meanwhile, is following all this in search of something new to report and discuss, which means the slightest nuance or new angle can turn into the dominant debate of the day. This can be a dangerous time for both sides. Yesterday’s debate over whether Morrison thinks gay people are going to hell (he doesn’t), is an example.

    The Prime Minister failed to give a straight answer when asked for his view on Monday, giving Shorten an opening. The Labor leader didn’t miss the opportunity to plant a seed of doubt in voters’ minds about Morrison’s Pentecostal faith. Yesterday, as he clarified his views on eternal damnation, the PM called it a cheap shot from Shorten. Neither leader came out of the episode covered in glory. Morrison should have given a straight answer initially. Shorten should have left it to others to probe the PM’s personal religious views.

    As for the race itself, no one can be certain at this late stage which way it will break. The next 48 hours will be critical. A Labor win still seems more likely, but it’s still not in the bag. More polls will be released tomorrow and Friday, giving us a better read on how this campaign is finishing.

  6. I want to know why John Alexander was handing out HTV for Molan and not the endorsed Liberal one. I had Alexander in the moderates camp.

  9. I can’t imagine that anyone enthusiastically backed by Howard could be anything but right wing. Alexander is Howard’s man.

  10. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 7:20 am
    John Howard still singing from the same tired song sheet.
    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election-2019/federal-election-2019-former-prime-minister-john-howards-explosive-bill-shorten-spray-ng-b881198226z

    Beholden to unions? Tick
    Creating class envy? Tick
    Promulgating class warfare? Tick
    Dividing hardworking Australians? Tick

    —————–
    According to Howard
    So its ok for the Liberal party to beholden to IPA and Murdoch
    Creating class envy by making the rich even richer and the average to poor, poorer
    Dividing hardworking Australians , introduce work choice

  12. One point of interest nobody is talking about is that the Centre Alliance are contesting 3 lower house seat in SA, and we’ve only got any real indication on voting intention in Mayo. In the absence of any polling of Barker or Grey the only indication of how they might go there comes from the voterchoice survey. This week the methodology was changed to only give their user pool the options that actually exist in their seats. Yet CA somehow has 2% of the National vote! With only 3/151 seats!! That suggests they’re getting 100% of the vote in every one of those seats!!! This is obviously wrong, but it does point to there potentially being a boil-over on Barker and Grey.

  13. Zoidlord @ #43 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 5:04 am

    @LesStoneHouse

    Alan Jones said that if Labor wins the election, he’ll retire from radio and all public appearances. Labor’s just won 10 more seats Tonight I’m thinking #auspol  #AusVotes2019

    I seem to recall that Jones’ contract is up for renewal sometime this year, and his new paymasters at Nine are doing a cost benefit analysis on whether to keep him on given how much he’s racked up in legal fees and damages payouts.

    This might just be a way for him to try and save face by claiming he’s retiring when in fact he’s actually being shown the door.

  14. @DVC

    the only thing I know is that David Crowe has been boosting centre alliance as possible balance of power a few weeks ago.

    Pretty much nonsense really

  15. Re Alan Jones and Rupert Murdoch, when they go they’ll be replaced by someone just as bad or worse. The Murdoch empire leadership is already transitioning to Lachlan.

  18. DVC @ #61 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 7:27 am

    One point of interest nobody is talking about is that the Centre Alliance are contesting 3 lower house seat in SA, and we’ve only got any real indication on voting intention in Mayo. In the absence of any polling of Barker or Grey the only indication of how they might go there comes from the voterchoice survey. This week the methodology was changed to only give their user pool the options that actually exist in their seats. Yet CA somehow has 2% of the National vote! With only 3/151 seats!! That suggests they’re getting 100% of the vote in every one of those seats!!! This is obviously wrong, but it does point to there potentially being a boil-over on Barker and Grey.

    —
    Those two seats are among the sleepers to watch IMHO. CA has hardly rated a mention in this election despite getting above 20 percent 0f the PV and three senators at the last election; Their votes have to go somewhere if not to CA and 60% of their preference flows went to Labor in Boothby, for example.

  19. This pathetic excuse for a minister with a brain will keep her position in a Morrison government. Her appointment says so much about Morrison’s philosophy. “fossilised, childlike thinking.

    The show by Price in her electorate was a remarkable exhibition of fossilised, childlike thinking. As the extinction of a million species or so are upon us, we can have a rather cosy show of ribbon cutting between the Batavia Coast Miniature Railway Society president, vice-president and the Environment Minister, who has remained selectively mute.

    President Steve McAllister seemed happy enough at her patchy efforts; Spalding’s miniature railway had been extended at a cost of $25,000:

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/melissa-price-and-the-coalitions-climate-change-denying-non-environmental-policy,12671

  22. Effective preparation for cyclone Fani in India draws praise and offers world lesson in disaster preparedness.

    https://theconversation-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/theconversation.com/amp/indias-cyclone-fani-recovery-offers-the-world-lessons-in-disaster-preparedness-116870?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconversation.com%2Findias-cyclone-fani-recovery-offers-the-world-lessons-in-disaster-preparedness-116870

  23. I imagine Pauline Hanson said this with a straight face.

    Flyers attacking Anne Aly have been distributed in the West Australian Labor MP’s electorate.

    The flyers refer to Dr Aly by her full Egyptian given name and says she supports banning any criticism of Islam “just like Saudi Arabia”.

    One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, who is in Perth, said her party had nothing to do with it but rejected descriptions of the material as racist.

    “That word is just thrown around too easily these days. You can’t have an opinion or say anything without being called racist,” Senator Hanson told ABC radio on Tuesday.

    She said it was a personal attack on Dr Aly and she didn’t agree with it.

    “We don’t fight in the gutter. It’s not my way or my candidates’ (way),” she said.

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election-2019/federal-election-2019-racist-flyers-distributed-in-anne-alys-electorate-ng-b881198674z

  24. I find the vote allocated to One Nation at 5% Nationally quite unbelievable given they are only running in 30 odd seats. At the last Election they ran in 15 seats and scored 1.29% of the total vote. So I’m guessing an upper limit of 3%.

    So, the question is where does that other 2% end up?

  26. Dan Gulberry @ #62 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 7:28 am

    Zoidlord @ #43 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 5:04 am

    @LesStoneHouse

    Alan Jones said that if Labor wins the election, he’ll retire from radio and all public appearances. Labor’s just won 10 more seats Tonight I’m thinking #auspol  #AusVotes2019

    I seem to recall that Jones’ contract is up for renewal sometime this year, and his new paymasters at Nine are doing a cost benefit analysis on whether to keep him on given how much he’s racked up in legal fees and damages payouts.

    This might just be a way for him to try and save face by claiming he’s retiring when in fact he’s actually being shown the door.

    I read somewhere the total cost of the case involving that Queensland family was of the order of $8 mill.

  27. I bet Aldi supports the Coalition. (snarky comment)

    Aldi came in fourth and was rated the best value for money – much-needed good news for the low-cost, German-owned supermarket, which was recently revealed to be the nation’s least healthy supermarket.

    FoodSwitch’s State of the Food Supply report released last month showed that Aldi’s private-label products were the most “ultra-processed” of the nation’s supermarkets.

    Aldi had the highest proportion of ‘discretionary’ products – or junk food – on its shelves at around 50 per cent.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/consumer/2019/05/14/coles-woolworths-customer-satisfaction/

  28. “She’s not said that in writing or with any degree of conviction,” Abbott counters in an interview at Hemingway’s Manly cafe.

    If you’ve said six impossible things this morning, why not round it off with breakfast at Hemingways, the Cafe at the End of the Universe.

  29. Greensborough Growler @ #75 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 5:49 am

    Dan Gulberry @ #62 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 7:28 am

    Zoidlord @ #43 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 5:04 am

    @LesStoneHouse

    Alan Jones said that if Labor wins the election, he’ll retire from radio and all public appearances. Labor’s just won 10 more seats Tonight I’m thinking #auspol  #AusVotes2019

    I seem to recall that Jones’ contract is up for renewal sometime this year, and his new paymasters at Nine are doing a cost benefit analysis on whether to keep him on given how much he’s racked up in legal fees and damages payouts.

    This might just be a way for him to try and save face by claiming he’s retiring when in fact he’s actually being shown the door.

    I read somewhere the total cost of the case involving that Queensland family was of the order of $8 mill.

    It wouldn’t surprise me.

  30. Confessions @ #53 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 7:13 am

    C@t:

    Is that Falou stuff still going on? I haven’t really been paying attention to be honest.

    Yep. He hasn’t received his penalty yet, so it’s not quite case closed. Also, the debate was contextualised within the Religious Freedom Report which the Coalition haven’t acted on yet and so questions were asked about that too.

  31. “She’s not said that in writing or with any degree of conviction,”

    Says the guy who can say things with the utmost conviction. He just doesn’t mean it when he says it with conviction.

  33. Holding out against this family, who have community support, just seems an act of bastardry.

    Roman Quaedvlieg
    ‏@quaedvliegs
    12h12 hours ago

    Just to remove any doubt, the Minister has unassailable discretion to allow this family to remain in Australia. It’s difficult to know all of the circumstances but at face value, if discretion is to be afforded, this seems to be a showcase to do so.

  34. Roger @ #74 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 7:48 am

    @GG

    well presumably not 60:40 to the libs

    If voters in a particular seat articulate an intention to vote One Nation and they turn up on polling day and there is no ON supporters distributing their HTVs and no candidate to vote for, where does that vote go?

    Same to a certain extent with Palmer. His vote jumped when Newspoll started including their name in the list of options read out to poll respondents. I’ve read there very few UAP supporters paid or otherwise handing out HTV on saturday. So, will their vote be as high as reported?

  35. So if the polls are right there is a segment of the NSW population (and I’m looking at you, Lindsay…) who voted Labor at the last election who now, in 2019, are thinking that the Coalition have done such a cracking job they are prepared to shift their vote TO ScoMo and his rabble.

    Seriously. What. Is Wrong. With. You.

    I reckon on Sunday morning the rest of Australia might need to send Victoria a big bunch of flowers.

  41. Media

    I know nothing of the “go to hell” issue except for Ad Man from Mad Men’s headline

    Did Shorten decry the media for even asking such a question?

    And Ad Man looks for political mileage from that

    Did Shorten criticise Ad Man or the question being asked of him in the first instance?

    The very question was a new low

    And the result?

    On the one hand the race is tight and the winner not known according to media

    On the other hand there is media reporting of a handful or more Liberals under pressure in formerly safe seats (why?)

    So, if they are under real pressure in formerly safe seats and that is the history, how are the Liberal and National Parties on the cusp of victory?

    Or is it only in their safe seats their vote has collapsed, continuing a history?

  42. lizzie @ #81 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 7:59 am

    Holding out against this family, who have community support, just seems an act of bastardry.

    Roman Quaedvlieg
    ‏@quaedvliegs
    12h12 hours ago

    Just to remove any doubt, the Minister has unassailable discretion to allow this family to remain in Australia. It’s difficult to know all of the circumstances but at face value, if discretion is to be afforded, this seems to be a showcase to do so.

    There’s a lot of very good reasons why Paul Keating called Dutton the meanest politician in his 50 years in Australian politics. And this is but one of them.

  43. Dan Gulberry @ #62 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 7:28 am

    Zoidlord @ #43 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 5:04 am

    @LesStoneHouse

    Alan Jones said that if Labor wins the election, he’ll retire from radio and all public appearances. Labor’s just won 10 more seats Tonight I’m thinking #auspol  #AusVotes2019

    I seem to recall that Jones’ contract is up for renewal sometime this year, and his new paymasters at Nine are doing a cost benefit analysis on whether to keep him on given how much he’s racked up in legal fees and damages payouts.

    This might just be a way for him to try and save face by claiming he’s retiring when in fact he’s actually being shown the door.

    Yep. We had a couple of comments on this last night. And that it then implies a Jones prediction of a Labor win.

  44. …….”So if the polls are right there is a segment of the NSW population (and I’m looking at you, Lindsay…) who voted Labor at the last election who now, in 2019, are thinking that the Coalition have done such a cracking job they are prepared to shift their vote TO ScoMo and his rabble.”…..

    What a load of rubbish. We DO live in a democracy where people are entitled to vote whichever way they want.
    The people of Wentworth or any coalition seat are as much to blame as anyone else. How about the people of New England who elect Barnaby.
    Gee….some real rubbish gets written here at times.

  47. Another day without a new poll.

    Perhaps William can tell us whether this election has seen less polls Han the past few, or whether it might just seem har way to me because I’m anticipating an ALP won as opposed to merely hoping for one as in 2013 and 2016.

  48. Good Morning

    I think the whole religion thing is a huge turn off for voters.
    We know what voters think from the Marriage Survey. The desperation of the LNP to change votes in Western Sydney won’t be helping them.

    Voters will instead remember the vitriol and unless you agree with Folau it’s not going to get voters attracted to the LNP. If I was the ALP I would remind voters of Morrison promising to end discrimination in Schools. Crickets happened as parliament sitting days were restricted

  50. Thank you Confessions for the reminder on Watergate. So much gets lost in the fog of an election.

    Don’t mention Watergate
    #NoMoreMorrison

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