BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

New state-level data finds a narrowing in Labor’s advantage, but also suggests the Coalition’s recovery has been too little, too late.

Since last week’s post dedicated to the current reading of BludgerTrack (which is being updated with new polling data as it becomes available), its measure of the situation is that Labor’s two-party preferred lead is effectively unchanged, but that it has gone backwards on the seat projection due to the distribution of the swing between the states. As ever, this reflects the intense electoral sensitivity of Queensland, which punches well above its weight in terms of marginal seats.

Last time I sounded a note of caution about its reading that Labor stood to gain eight seats there, which was quite out of line with the expectations of both major parties. Since then, we have had two pieces of state-level data that have taken the edge off – the Queensland-only poll by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail last week, which showed the Coalition leading 51-49, and the Newspoll state breakdowns that had the Queensland result at 50-50. This has moderated the situation to the extent that Labor is now credited with only five gains in the state. Nonetheless, this is almost single-handedly sufficient to get them to a majority.

The encouragement for Labor doesn’t end there, because the Newspoll numbers have further boosted their reading in Victoria, where they are now projected to gain three seats from the Coalition, together with the electoral gift of the new seat of Fraser in their western Melbourne heartland. However, BludgerTrack is now showing a remarkable recovery for the Coalition in New South Wales, where they are actually projected to pick up a swing on two-party preferred, though without gaining any new seats. This is a little more favourable for them than the general impression, which is that they are likely to lose Gilmore and Reid while perhaps gaining Lindsay.

BludgerTrack also suggests the worst danger for the Coalition has passed in Western Australia, where they are now projected to lose only one seat. It also suggests the Liberals should be able to maintain the status quo in South Australia – or arguably slightly improve it, given it is Labor who will be wearing the cut in the state’s representation from 11 seats to 10. This notion was further encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Liberals maintaining a lead in Boothby, which is state’s strongest prospect of a gain for Labor.

However, it must be acknowledged here that there are a few holes in the BludgerTrack methodology, specifically relating to Tasmania and the territories, and non-major party contests. State-level data is only available for the five mainland states, so BludgerTrack has nothing to offer on the much-touted prospect of the Liberals gaining either or both of Bass and Braddon in the state’s north, where it is simply assumed that the swing will be in line with the overall national result. The same goes for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has been the subject of optimistic noises from the Coalition throughout the campaign. Whether such noises are justified remains anyone’s guess.

As for minor parties and independents, BludgerTrack simply assumes a status quo result, with Wentworth and Clark (formerly Denison) to remain with their independent incumbents, Indi to go from one independent to another, and Melbourne, Kennedy and Mayo to respectively remain with the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. I had hoped that media-commissioned seat polling might offer guidance here, but only in the case of Mayo has such a poll emerged. The consensus seems to be that Wentworth will return to the Liberals, that Indi could either stay independent or go with one or other Coalition party, and that the other seats should remain as they are.

The full BludgerTrack results at state-level, together with leadership rating trends and a database of poll results, can be found through the following link:

Not featured in BludgerTrack is the Roy Morgan series, which I decided came to party too late for its form to be properly calibrated. However, its latest weekly result is interesting in being the first national poll of the campaign period to record a move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. The poll now has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 38.5% (steady), Labor 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 4% (steady) and the United Australia Party 3.5% (steady). The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1265, which is larger than its other recent polls, which have been around the 700 to 800 mark.

Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Queensland seat of Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,540 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

  1. I don’t think that was the point Howard was trying to make.

    That wasn’t what I was saying. I was countering the assertion that the comparison is invalid merely because Massachusetts currently has a RW Governor. Victoria has had those and will have those again. (Or, rather, a Premier in the case of Victoria.)

  2. NE Qld

    I would guess about 500 per seat, margin of error for TPP ~ 4.4%

    Newspoll used to do “pooled” marginals of I think the thirty closest seats. Fewer per seat but bigger number overall – they seem to have dropped this.

  3. This dance of the seven veils with seat poll results is … just ridiculous.

    Although having a ridiculous (and meaningless) end to ridiculous (and meaningless) election coverage does seem somewhat fitting.

  4. Qld is the dig a hole state
    Wa was the dig a hole state
    NSw is the tourist state?
    SA is/ could be the natural produce state
    Tas could also be
    VIC is the education (export) state
    The amount of (international) student accommodation quotes I’ve worked on in the past 2 years is massive
    Have never seen this volume in student accommodation

  5. Amy Remeikis @AmyRemeikis
    10h10 hours ago

    If I become one of those 60-something white blonde women ranting about shiz I have no understanding of on national TV, like I have some right to be heard on these issues because I used to be relevant 100 years ago, please just lock me away somewhere, away from cameras

  6. C@tmomma says:

    I wonder why Peter Dutton has a knife in his head?

    For a start it shows that there can’t be too much of importance in there or he’d be seriously wounded .

  7. Steve777

    It was Palmer’s company/ies that went into administration and was unable to pay its debts.

    The Administrators stepped in, but were unable to recover enough monies to repay all the debts including some workers’ entitlements.

    Palmer was not personally liable for the company/ies’ debts.

    The unpaid workers were entitled to make a claim for their lost wages, holiday pay, long service leave, and redundancy payments from the Fair Entitlements Guarantee scheme (FEG). In the end result the Commonwealth Government (we, the taxpayer) paid $70 million or more to cover these entitlements on Palmer’s company/ies’ behalf.

    That scheme was set up by John Howard to protect his brother’s and his brother’s company’s interests when it went belly up over some overseas ethanol contracts. He had to make it apply to all companies.

    The FEG scheme does not cover lost superannuation entitlements.

    As Palmer was not personally liable, he was able to offer to pay unrecovered entitlements (basically super) out of his own pocket on whatever terms he saw fit. It appears those terms include the restrictions he seeks to put on the workers should they accept his offer.

    His reason for making the offer was to make himself look big to the voting public as it was not a good look and was an albatross around his political neck.

    Quite frankly I think very little if any of the money he has put into trust with his solicitors will ever be paid out, and certainly not if he loses his run for the Senate. He left it until the last couple of weeks and put these unacceptable conditions upon it in order to discourage any claims being pursued to the point of payment before the election.

    What he has done is immoral and unethical but not illegal.

  8. Right, reordered with some new commentary (Newspoll know how to ‘own’ tomorrow – are their hirers afraid of some big Labor announcement?)

    10-Flynn ALP 51-49 (loss of early wicket)
    11-Macquarie 50-50 (early shock for ALP)
    12-La Trobe ALP 51-49 (one batsman has to fail)
    1-Forde 50-50 (what a save!)
    2-Reid LNP 52-48 (recovery)
    3-Higgins LNP 51-49 v GRN (streaker for shock value)
    4-Herbert LNP 52-48 (good lower order)
    5-Gilmore 50-50 (late shock for ALP)
    6-Deakin LNP 52-48 (finishing the day well)
    7-Dickson LNP 52-48 (good late order finish by close of play and LNP cruising!)

    So I’m going 5*LNP, 3*Tie, 2*ALP – any advances on that?

  9. Jaeger @ #1253 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 7:37 pm

    Amy Remeikis @AmyRemeikis
    10h10 hours ago

    If I become one of those 60-something white blonde women ranting about shiz I have no understanding of on national TV, like I have some right to be heard on these issues because I used to be relevant 100 years ago, please just lock me away somewhere, away from cameras

    WTF is this ageist, sexist shit?

  10. It isn’t Christian doctrine that gay people go to hell or even murderers for that matter.
    I believe there is single criteria to avoid hell regardless of all else. To basically cite the standard criteria – .i.e. believe in JC as their lord and saviour. That’s it, nothing else. Unless you are Catholic, then it gets more complicated.

    HOWEVER I do not understand why a bunch of Non Christians would get so butt hurt over something they do not believe in – Hell. They are getting upset because somebody believes they are going to a non existent place?
    And again – if this were about something a Muslim said, would commenters on PB be talking about it? Or is it reserved for the safe target of white people and christians buddhists etc..

  11. Rowe’s cartoons are based upon the penultimate episode of Game of Thrones.

    If you haven’t watched it yet and care, go and watch it! The “‘web is dark and full of spoilers.”

    If you haven’t watched it yet and don’t care, Google “GoT S08E05 recap”.

    If you have watched it, go back and watch it again.

  12. Nowra itself is a stinking shithole. Maybe East L.A.

    The Shoalhaven (like most of the East Coast) shits all over anything on the US West Coast.

  13. WTF is this ageist, sexist shit?

    “Kerri-Anne Kennerley launched a scathing attack on the Labor leader today, boldly declaring: ‘If Bill Shorten gets in, it’s the end of life as we know it.'”

  14. Jaeger
    says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 9:44 pm
    Rowe’s cartoons are based upon the penultimate episode of Game of Thrones.
    If you haven’t watched it yet and care, go and watch it! The “‘web is dark and full of spoilers.”
    _______________________________
    Have you seen Melisandre at a baby shower?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5C6kG57J7Q

  15. Salk
    I don’t get but hurt about being told I’m going to hell, I just think it’s stupid.
    In fact I have never met an atheist that that has been but hurt by such a comment.

  16. Anybody who relies on any sort of mainstream media in any country will be totally ill informed and pumped with propaganda. Media are owned by oligarchs who have their own short term and long term agenda.
    Fox gives voice to conservatives, the remainder of the media is left or hard left. Facebook is on an agenda to remove all conservative voices from facebook. Twitter will ban conservative tweets they say contravenes their standards, but however leave up even more violent and hateful tweets from the left in the USA.
    HOWEVER, in the USA it seems the general public have awoken, and no matter the two years saturation on hate Trump hate Republican their voter support seems to be strengthening. It is a matter of the media calling wolf ever 5 seconds for 2 years.
    Australia political media is pathetic, and totally predictable.

  17. The SmearStralian hokey 10 seat poll countdown on the hour can only be surpassed in pointlessness by the 10 finalists of the Eurovision contest

    These 10 countries will advance to this year’s #Eurovision  final #DareToDream :
    – Australia
    – Iceland
    – Greece
    – Belarus
    – Serbia
    – Cyprus
    – Estonia
    – Czech Republic
    – San Marino
    – Slovenia

  18. Personally the ‘hell’ thing means nothing to me because hell never made any sense even if I did buy into a mainstream religion, which I don’t.

    Apparently, though, some people do take it as a serious attack, which is unfortunate, but there you go.

  19. “qld is more like florida
    Rare occasions delivers for the left”

    Rare occasions?… Since 1989 most Qld state governments have been ALP….!

  20. ”WA is sister state with Tuscany. Talk about delusions of grandeur. ”

    I know, Tuscany has nothing on WA

    (Actually, in terms of landscape, there’s something to that)

    Also, I hear the ALP are 3 points down in Tuscany

  21. I reserve the absolute right to be abused, disliked, hated and told I am going to hell or wherever.
    Freedom of speech so long as it doesn’t incite violence or institute prejudice action, is essential for any free society.
    You can abuse me as much as you like – I appreciate that you are in a country where you can freely do it.

    Cheers

  22. Funny talking about GoT: we could be electing our own Littlefinger as PM. Chaos is a ladder. RGR was chaos and the ladder. And Shorten/Littlefinger did climb it. Or will he?

  23. Edi
    “Diogenes, that is not necessarily true.”
    I agree but if someone genuinely believes you are going to hell for whatever reason, it has to follow that some of those people are going to be prejudiced against you. As an atheist, it’s pretty easy to brush off but if it was because I was gay, of a forbidden religion (and that goes for Muslims and Christians), some type of sinner etc it wouldn’t be as easy to laugh off.

  24. No one wishes they were Nowra.

    And I say this as someone born and bred there, with family history locally that predates Alexander Berry (and probably much longer, as I suspect there is more than First Fleet ancestry in our lineage).

    Nowra is the jarring flaw in the exquisite gem that is its surrounds.

  25. HOWEVER I do not understand why a bunch of Non Christians would get so butt hurt over something they do not believe in – Hell. They are getting upset because somebody believes they are going to a non existent place?

    Ok, a thought experiment here: If I told you I am going to cast a magic spell that will make you suffer painfully and die in an excruciating way. You would, of course, shrug it off. Magic spells aren’t real.

    Now, what if I kept telling you every time I saw you that I have cast that magic spell. And I have cast other magic spells to cause you similar problems. I keep saying you are a disgusting, immoral piece of shit and soon, very soon, those magic spells I am casting are going to take their toll on you and then you’re really going to suffer. Despite the fact that you know the magic spells aren’t real, you still feel threatened and abused by this person who really wants you to be harmed and has a pathological obsession with the idea of you being harmed.

    You’d have every right to feel offended and bothered in this scenario. And this is very similar to why atheists do still get bothered by people deciding who is going to Hell, even though Hell doesn’t exist. It’s the sentiment behind it.

    And again – if this were about something a Muslim said, would commenters on PB be talking about it? Or is it reserved for the safe target of white people and christians buddhists etc..

    When a Muslim condemns people to Hell it is called out and Islam is a fair target to criticise. The Quran is one of the worst of Holy Books (although they’re all pretty toxic and horrible.) You’re mistaking calls for tolerance based on the overreaction to Islamic Terrorism by targeting innocent Muslims (or people who are just brown-skinned) in the community who have nothing to do with it but are easy to “other” by reactionaries. Christians in Australian communities (note: I am not talking about a Christian minority in an Islamic country or whatever) do not suffer this alienation (unless you’re talking about brown-skinned Christians being mistaken for Muslims.) Sorry but this line of objection stinks too much of the same oppressed-but-not-really thinking as “But what about MEN’S rights?”

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