BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

New state-level data finds a narrowing in Labor’s advantage, but also suggests the Coalition’s recovery has been too little, too late.

Since last week’s post dedicated to the current reading of BludgerTrack (which is being updated with new polling data as it becomes available), its measure of the situation is that Labor’s two-party preferred lead is effectively unchanged, but that it has gone backwards on the seat projection due to the distribution of the swing between the states. As ever, this reflects the intense electoral sensitivity of Queensland, which punches well above its weight in terms of marginal seats.

Last time I sounded a note of caution about its reading that Labor stood to gain eight seats there, which was quite out of line with the expectations of both major parties. Since then, we have had two pieces of state-level data that have taken the edge off – the Queensland-only poll by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail last week, which showed the Coalition leading 51-49, and the Newspoll state breakdowns that had the Queensland result at 50-50. This has moderated the situation to the extent that Labor is now credited with only five gains in the state. Nonetheless, this is almost single-handedly sufficient to get them to a majority.

The encouragement for Labor doesn’t end there, because the Newspoll numbers have further boosted their reading in Victoria, where they are now projected to gain three seats from the Coalition, together with the electoral gift of the new seat of Fraser in their western Melbourne heartland. However, BludgerTrack is now showing a remarkable recovery for the Coalition in New South Wales, where they are actually projected to pick up a swing on two-party preferred, though without gaining any new seats. This is a little more favourable for them than the general impression, which is that they are likely to lose Gilmore and Reid while perhaps gaining Lindsay.

BludgerTrack also suggests the worst danger for the Coalition has passed in Western Australia, where they are now projected to lose only one seat. It also suggests the Liberals should be able to maintain the status quo in South Australia – or arguably slightly improve it, given it is Labor who will be wearing the cut in the state’s representation from 11 seats to 10. This notion was further encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Liberals maintaining a lead in Boothby, which is state’s strongest prospect of a gain for Labor.

However, it must be acknowledged here that there are a few holes in the BludgerTrack methodology, specifically relating to Tasmania and the territories, and non-major party contests. State-level data is only available for the five mainland states, so BludgerTrack has nothing to offer on the much-touted prospect of the Liberals gaining either or both of Bass and Braddon in the state’s north, where it is simply assumed that the swing will be in line with the overall national result. The same goes for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has been the subject of optimistic noises from the Coalition throughout the campaign. Whether such noises are justified remains anyone’s guess.

As for minor parties and independents, BludgerTrack simply assumes a status quo result, with Wentworth and Clark (formerly Denison) to remain with their independent incumbents, Indi to go from one independent to another, and Melbourne, Kennedy and Mayo to respectively remain with the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. I had hoped that media-commissioned seat polling might offer guidance here, but only in the case of Mayo has such a poll emerged. The consensus seems to be that Wentworth will return to the Liberals, that Indi could either stay independent or go with one or other Coalition party, and that the other seats should remain as they are.

The full BludgerTrack results at state-level, together with leadership rating trends and a database of poll results, can be found through the following link:

Not featured in BludgerTrack is the Roy Morgan series, which I decided came to party too late for its form to be properly calibrated. However, its latest weekly result is interesting in being the first national poll of the campaign period to record a move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. The poll now has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 38.5% (steady), Labor 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 4% (steady) and the United Australia Party 3.5% (steady). The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1265, which is larger than its other recent polls, which have been around the 700 to 800 mark.

Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Queensland seat of Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,540 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

  1. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 9:55 pm
    Jaeger:

    “It’s a clumsy effort by Amy. She can do better.”

    ..it’s a bluddy good effort by Amy, and spot on!!

  2. The Australian also is saying the Palmer Ad blitz may result in Labor winning only in minority government. A Labor insider says Palmer ads are really hurting us.

  3. This is getting serious in NSW Senate for the Coalition, the more below the line, the more leakage there will be..

    “In an email to party members, the Nationals’ NSW chairman Bede Burke and director Ross Cadell said: “Supporters of Liberal senator Jim Molan have taken it upon themselves to campaign for a ‘below the line’ vote, which in our view, breaks the Coalition Agreement and seriously harms the chances of a Nationals Senator being elected.

    “That is why we are asking you to vote below the line on the Senate ballot paper, for The Nationals’ Perin Davey and Sam Farraway”.

    Unless Davey is elected there will be no NSW Nationals senator. John “Wacka” Williams, from NSW, is retiring at the election.

    “We must continue to have a strong, regional voice in the Senate fighting for our communities,” Burke and Cadell said.

    They said they had “no choice” but to follow suit after Molan’s action and “actively encourage everyone to vote below the line” for the Nationals’ candidates. “This is the only way to guarantee our communities have a voice in the Senate,” they said.

    “We are not taking this extraordinary step lightly. The Coalition Agreement is something that is fundamental to our ability as Nationals to deliver for our regions.”

    https://theconversation.com/amp/angry-nationals-play-payback-in-nsw-senate-row-117208?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton&__twitter_impression=true

  4. Good lord! Just flicked over to check on Sky and there be Poorlene on eejit Murray’s program, topic ? BOATS ! A real mystery as to why they are losing money. 😉

  5. Which is the absolute opposite of what others are “saying” about Palmer and his impact on the LNP.

    So many people, saying so many things…

  6. The Australian also is saying the Palmer Ad blitz may result in Labor winning only in minority government. A Labor insider says Palmer ads are really hurting us.

    While I remain skeptical of that outcome I have noted on here the wall-to-wall blitz of Palmer ads everywhere might result in a bigger result for his party and the influence on the outcome that comes with it, than the polls might be picking up right now. Frankly that’s more a concern for me than Scott Morrison actually being more popular than we believe.

  7. Queensland has always and will always be the ultimate redneck wonderland. You only have to hear one the locals utter a couple of words to know they’re as dumb as a box of rocks.

    The state capital is Brisbane ffs. Says it all.

  8. How could you be hurt about being told that you are going somewhere that doesn’t exist!?!

    You can either a) suffer from religious indoctrination as a child (a form of child abuse). In which case you may not accept Hell as real in your rational mind but cannot shake the emotional scarring. Or b) even if you have no belief at all yourself, you can still suffer from persecution and victimisation by religious believers.

  9. And not only leakage, but wastage and/or informality if the Liberal sheep like michael follow Molan’s HTV – mind you, the General’s accomplishments are impressive 🙂

  10. Re: GoT spoilers

    Richard Madden played “The Bodyguard” (BBC 2018), and Agent Ross in one of the “Electric Dreams” stories (2017 miniseries) – both very good.

    I did not recognise him as Robb Stark in GoT until it was pointed out to me… Well played, sir.

  11. Getup donations currently standing at $520,581 in last seven days, hard to top that for a grass roots movement.

    Wonder how much has been donated to AdvanceAustralia (conservative version), or even the Liberal Party.

  12. markjs @ #1299 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 8:04 pm

    Confessions says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 9:55 pm
    Jaeger:

    “It’s a clumsy effort by Amy. She can do better.”

    ..it’s a bluddy good effort by Amy, and spot on!!

    It’s a cheap shot by millennial Amy that essentially sweeps up high achieving 60 something white haired women like Gail Kelly in her generalisation. Do you really think that Gail Kelly can be compared with a lightweight celebrity like KAK?

  13. Oh yeah, and do you want to know how dumb the people who ARE voting for Clive Palmer are? One guy at the Pre Poll came up to us red shirts and boasted that he had just voted for, Clive Palmer 1 and the Liberal Party 2 in the Senate.

    Think about it.

  14. sprocket_ @ #1313 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 8:14 pm

    And not only leakage, but wastage and/or informality if the Liberal sheep like michael follow Molan’s HTV – mind you, the General’s accomplishments are impressive 🙂

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Still advocating an informal vote. Why not just let him have as much clear air as he can get so all those Liberal voters who support him only number 1 below the line and hand their Senate ballot paper in? 😀

  15. I don’t think the constant UAP ads will do that much to get UAP Senators elected, apart perhaps from Clive himself.

    What they have done, though, is they have been a continuous drip drip drip of completely nonsensical negativity about the LNP and ALP, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the wall-to-wall UAP bleating has pushed people away from the two majors and scattered them across the minor spectrum.

    How much actual impact, we’ll know soon enough I guess. While I would expect both the coalition and ALP primary votes to suffer, I kind of don’t think the ALP will suffer too much more from this than the LNP. The lower house will probably be largely unaffected; the Senate, however, could well be a different story.

  16. I have a completely unfounded theory that the sheer volume of Palmers ads has neutralised the impact of other ads. This can only be good for Labor, because the coalition seems to have had a lot more money to spend on its own ads.

  17. I just took one for the team. I watched Murray with Conroy Hanson and the woeful Hardgrave.

    Bludgers I’m going to bed calm. Conroy was smiling, upbeat and cheery altho he said it’s close. Murray was actually discussing Labor policy reasonably, Hanson begged voters not to give Labor Senate votes and Hargrave was completely spacko and screaming boats, boats, bad Labor.
    It was quite telling. I think we might be almost home.
    Sweet dreams all

  18. This election’s results will make or break GetUp. Some of their funding must be cannibalising donations that would otherwise go to other progressive organisations, and if they can’t show any results for all that money in the seats they are targeting… On the other hand, get scalps like Abbott and Frydenberg and they are set for a decade.

  19. There is going to be SO MUCH misdirection and bullshit flinging going on for the next two days, while there’s normally some going both ways, the majority of it tends to come from the party that’s behind.

    Best to ignore all of it, kind of like seat polls, even if some of it comes to pass on Saturday.

  20. Quite a few Labor ads on Plane Crash Investigation at the moment (in Canberra). One raises the spectre of a totally chaotic Morrison-Palmer-One Nation government.

    Have there been any Liberal ads proclaiming a “chaotic Labor-Greens government”?

  21. It’s a cheap shot by millennial Amy that essentially sweeps up high achieving 60 something white haired women like Gail Kelly in her generalisation.

    No, it was a tweet (“@”), and assumed you understood the context i.e. KAK’s outburst – 160/320 characters isn’t enough to recap.

    Now I remember why I don’t like social media… I’ll try not to do it again.

  22. Saw Clive’s ‘The Chinese could invade WA by plane” ad. Truly a FMD are we still in the days of the Yellow Peril ? Perhaps I could pitch this to Clive ?

  23. “Nowra is the jarring flaw in the exquisite gem that is its surrounds.”

    The coast South from Sydney to the Victorian border is beautiful. Nowra’s OK, places just to the North like the little town of Berry and 7 mile beach (which is 7 miles long) are gems. But if they want to be San Francisco they’re going to have to paint their bridge red, and that’s just a start.

  24. Fulvio Sammut @ #1327 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 10:20 pm

    What’s the point C@t, did he fail to number 3 to 6 at least, or am I as dumb as he was?

    That’s the point. The guy was as dumb as a box of hammers. He thought a valid vote was 1 for Clive and 2 for the Liberal Party. That’s all he wanted and so that’s all he did. We didn’t disabuse him of his idiocy. 🙂

  25. It’s not about what might happen in some imaginary place, it’s about discrimination and vilification in this world.

    Very apposite, and shrewd of Labor to bring it up, to bring the SSM newly-enrolled out to vote

  26. Cud, I helped my elderly mother with her postal vote, including the NSW Senate ballot paper – half a table cloth, with a plethora of weird parties I’d never heard of like Better Families. Actually quite a challenge to find parties.

    For the serious parties, any below the line campaign for any of their candidate, runs the risk of loss of discipline. So some will do things like:

    1 Molan
    2 UAP
    3 Better Familes

    Or

    1. Davey
    2. Farraway
    3. Better Families etc

    This is disasterous as the Coalition May not only lose the 3rd seat, but the 2nd could be at risk as well. Scotty must step in tomorrow and show some leadership.

  27. That Herald-Sun headline with its 5.4% swing to Labor looks very promising for Saturday!

    (I must not take single seat polls seriously. I must not take single seat polls seriously. I must not take single seat polls seriously. I must not take single seat polls seriously.)

  28. Army @19:20
    “This election’s results will make or break GetUp. Some of their funding must be cannibalising donations that would otherwise go to other progressive organisations…”

    After some or other silly stunt by Getup I decided to restrict donations to Labor.

  29. Something I just realised about Rowe’s latest cartoon is which side we the observers are on, and by extension which side the government isn’t on.
    How subtle is Rowe?

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