BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

New state-level data finds a narrowing in Labor’s advantage, but also suggests the Coalition’s recovery has been too little, too late.

Since last week’s post dedicated to the current reading of BludgerTrack (which is being updated with new polling data as it becomes available), its measure of the situation is that Labor’s two-party preferred lead is effectively unchanged, but that it has gone backwards on the seat projection due to the distribution of the swing between the states. As ever, this reflects the intense electoral sensitivity of Queensland, which punches well above its weight in terms of marginal seats.

Last time I sounded a note of caution about its reading that Labor stood to gain eight seats there, which was quite out of line with the expectations of both major parties. Since then, we have had two pieces of state-level data that have taken the edge off – the Queensland-only poll by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail last week, which showed the Coalition leading 51-49, and the Newspoll state breakdowns that had the Queensland result at 50-50. This has moderated the situation to the extent that Labor is now credited with only five gains in the state. Nonetheless, this is almost single-handedly sufficient to get them to a majority.

The encouragement for Labor doesn’t end there, because the Newspoll numbers have further boosted their reading in Victoria, where they are now projected to gain three seats from the Coalition, together with the electoral gift of the new seat of Fraser in their western Melbourne heartland. However, BludgerTrack is now showing a remarkable recovery for the Coalition in New South Wales, where they are actually projected to pick up a swing on two-party preferred, though without gaining any new seats. This is a little more favourable for them than the general impression, which is that they are likely to lose Gilmore and Reid while perhaps gaining Lindsay.

BludgerTrack also suggests the worst danger for the Coalition has passed in Western Australia, where they are now projected to lose only one seat. It also suggests the Liberals should be able to maintain the status quo in South Australia – or arguably slightly improve it, given it is Labor who will be wearing the cut in the state’s representation from 11 seats to 10. This notion was further encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll showing the Liberals maintaining a lead in Boothby, which is state’s strongest prospect of a gain for Labor.

However, it must be acknowledged here that there are a few holes in the BludgerTrack methodology, specifically relating to Tasmania and the territories, and non-major party contests. State-level data is only available for the five mainland states, so BludgerTrack has nothing to offer on the much-touted prospect of the Liberals gaining either or both of Bass and Braddon in the state’s north, where it is simply assumed that the swing will be in line with the overall national result. The same goes for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, which has been the subject of optimistic noises from the Coalition throughout the campaign. Whether such noises are justified remains anyone’s guess.

As for minor parties and independents, BludgerTrack simply assumes a status quo result, with Wentworth and Clark (formerly Denison) to remain with their independent incumbents, Indi to go from one independent to another, and Melbourne, Kennedy and Mayo to respectively remain with the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. I had hoped that media-commissioned seat polling might offer guidance here, but only in the case of Mayo has such a poll emerged. The consensus seems to be that Wentworth will return to the Liberals, that Indi could either stay independent or go with one or other Coalition party, and that the other seats should remain as they are.

The full BludgerTrack results at state-level, together with leadership rating trends and a database of poll results, can be found through the following link:

Not featured in BludgerTrack is the Roy Morgan series, which I decided came to party too late for its form to be properly calibrated. However, its latest weekly result is interesting in being the first national poll of the campaign period to record a move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. The poll now has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 38.5% (steady), Labor 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 4% (steady) and the United Australia Party 3.5% (steady). The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1265, which is larger than its other recent polls, which have been around the 700 to 800 mark.

Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Queensland seat of Forde.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,540 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

  1. Boerwar
    Ijust had a quick look at my Twitter feed and there is quite a bit of stuff like this

    If you arrange during an election campaign to be photographed worshipping, thereby highlighting to the nation the importance of your church in your life, don’t then feign surprise and/or indignation when you get asked some questions about it
    ScoMo’s church does not muck about: “We believe in the everlasting punishment of the wicked … We believe the devil and his angels and whoever is not found written in the book of life shall be consigned to everlasting punishment in the lake which burns with fire and brimstone”
    1:16 PM – 15 May 2019

  2. pithicus says:
    Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 8:55 pm

    Victoria is the california of oz

    Supposedly John Howard thinks VIC is the Massachusetts of Australia

    I grew up when Victoria was the jewel in the Liberal crown
    Rupert Hamer was premier, then Lindsay Thompson ( who came to my primary school)
    Those two would not get a look in at being Liberal reps now
    I don’t remember snark or yapping
    I remember civility ( though I may be rose colored glassing it)

  3. edi_

    i recollect the pastor of that church being quoted praying in thanks for miraculous ascent of morrison as PM and his god given role in opposition to forced of evil that would destory this country- he is only hope for evil forces at work – presumably alp. you can’t make this stuff up – in rump areas of christian tradition.

  4. According to the calculator, if the LNP gets a 20% swing, the ALP will be left with only 3 seats including Grayndler.

    “If.” — Spartans.

  5. “According to the calculator, if the LNP gets a 20% swing, the ALP will be left with only 3 seats including Grayndler”

    Are you sure Grayndler isn’t in play…

  6. Outside left

    Yes trying to work out maximum effect in news cycle 10am – 7pm. Will surely start and end with a bang..

    If all good news for Coalition it would probably all be in tomorrow’s Australian.

  7. ‘…Big arse, small breasts’…former Liberal Party fundraising menu?

    No, it’s another Turnbull! (Done over twice.)

    I think JGPM is walking away under the Australian Aboriginal Flag.

  8. Diogenes

    Dooley has just explained that Shorten was referring to Morrison’s refusal to answer the journo’s question. Given his history of actions in the SSM issue, this was fair enough. Tonight the commentariat is widely supporting this perspective on the matter.

    In all this publicity about gays going to hell, what amazes me is the fact that the protagonists are so fixated on this minute part of the bible. Never do they focus on such aspects as the Good Samaritan, him without sin casting the first stone, suffer the little children, I will comfort the weary and burdened, love thy neighbour, love thine enemies, the forgiving God, and most importantly, the use of the tongue to harm others (James 3, 1-12).

    Ah no!

    None of these areas of the bible can ever match the importance of curing gays of their sinfulness. That’s obviously why every mention of homosexuality in the bible is on a coloured page, tagged, bolded, italicised and underlined (by God of course).

  9. pithicus says:

    >Victoria is the california of oz
    So is Queensland Alabama or Georgia and WA Texas ?

    South-east Queensland is Florida.
    North Queensland is Alabama or somewhere.
    South Australia is Michigan or Wisconsin (rust belt).
    WA is definitely Texas (Both have an underlying secessionist movement).
    Tasmania is Maine or Vermont (maybe Hawaii)
    NT is Alaska.
    NSW is Virginia.

    Based on my experience of 3 years living in Texas.

  10. In case not posted, here is timing of seat poll releases tomorrow:
    The ten seats include:
    10am: Flynn (Qld)
    11am: Macquarie (NSW)
    Midday: La Trobe (Vic)

    1pm: Forde (Qld)
    2pm: Reid (NSW)
    3pm: Higgins (Vic)
    4pm: Herbert (Qld)
    5pm: Gilmore (NSW)
    6pm: Deakin (Vic)
    7pm: Dickson (Qld)

  11. psyclaw
    I always get told it’s an Old Testament supplanted by New Testament thing when I ask those questions. Then I ask why they have the Old Testament in the Bible if they don’t follow it.

  12. From reading the doctrinal basis of the Church Scott Morrison attends he is a creationist, he speaks in tongues, has the holy spirit inside him and believes atheists are going to be tortured in hell for ever. However I did not find a definition of who the wicked are although it is easy to determine that they must include atheists.

  13. I’ve already forgotten who you are but strangely, for the first time in my life, I too found myself giving the LNP my third preference. In a field of 6 no less! My local member once tied a belt of explosives to himself but disappointingly didn’t pull the pin when Rudd knifed Gillard but he’s still 100 times less horrible than his opposition. Probably time to make him the minister for home affairs.

  14. Calling Victoria the Massachusetts of Australia wasn’t the brightest of analogies, considering that Massachusetts currently has a Republican governor.

  15. Oakeshott Country @ #1115 Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 – 8:28 pm

    The Mark Bouris robocall does not have an authorisation. On the other hand he does not mention any political party despite promoting the Coalition’s housing tax policy. This is probably legal but strikes me as a loophole in the current laws

    The AEC have already taken the Liberal Party to task for not authorising material that is obviously election campaign material. They should do it again.

  16. I’d say Vic is New York
    NSW is California in terms of population but a purple state like Virginia in political terms.
    QLD is definitely Florida.
    Tas is your New England states like Maine or Vermont.
    WA is Texas or Arizona.
    SA is Michigan or Pennsylvania
    ACT is DC
    and NT is Nevada.

    Of course these are just loose comparisons. Give me some time and I could probably do the same for other groups of political territories.

  17. Calling Victoria the Massachusetts of Australia wasn’t the brightest of analogies, considering that Massachusetts currently has a Republican governor.

    Victoria has recently had and will again have Liberal Premiers.

  18. “I too found myself giving the LNP my third preference”

    I always put “Liberals” last and their fellow travellers like Palmer, One Nation and the other ratbags second last, third last, etc.

  19. If atheists are going to hell to be tortured forever surely that is the worst possible thing that could happen to them. If Mr Morrison really cares for people why isn’t he showing atheists how to avoid going to hell instead of talking about far less important issues such as the economy or child care or health or roads or buying homes or whatever he does prattle on about?

  20. Brett- you’re obviously in Moreton? Yeah, I too am going to have to pref the LNP 3rd. We have a lot of scallywags running here.

    And I’m actually quite a fan of Perrett.

  21. NEQ – is that the actual list? Spoil sports – I had just done mine, with my predicted results.

    here goes

    10-Deakin LNP 52-48
    11-Herbert LNP 52-48 (solid opening stand)
    12-LaTrobe ALP 51-49 (one batsman has to fail)
    1-Gilmore 50-50
    2-Flynn ALP 51-49 (shaky middle order here)
    3-Forde 50-50
    4-Reid LNP 52-48 (recovery)
    5-Higgins LNP 51-49 v GRN (shock value)
    6-Dickson LNP 52-48 (good late order finish)
    7-Macquarie 50-50 (end with a shock for ALP)

    Now I have to reorder them all?

  22. For Bluey:

    Emily Lakdawalla @elakdawalla

    The dinosaurs had a good run and they’re done. Primates lasted shorter. I vote that octopuses get the next chance at running Earth. it’s time invertebrates had another chance.

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