Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

  1. Mavis Smith @ #286 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 7:02 pm

    Sharma appears home and hosed:

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/faithful-are-back-liberals-preparing-for-victory-in-wentworth-20190514-p51n2p.html

    I think the telling figure in that story is the 78% voter turnout in the by-election. You’d expect those voters who abstained would be pitchfork wielding Liberal voters, but who would return to the fold once the wounds have healed somewhat.

  2. frednk @ #763 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:03 pm


    Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 8:57 pm

    frednk @ #746 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 8:55 pm

    Kristina Keneally is not allowed to defend hers? It was Scott Morrison that bad mouth Catholics with his Pope comment.

    Serious crap!

    If Scott Morrison was a catholic his comment was fair enough, but he isn’t is he. Kristina Keneally is, with a Theology degree, I think it is quite fair she defends her faith.

    What an inanely stupid interpretation of what Morrison said.

    I’ll leave it with you to wrestle with the detail.

  3. Shorten did not once mention religion today either specifically in relation to Morrison or in general.

    It was Morrison who raised religion with his Pope comment while confirming that he does not believe gays will go to hell.

    Interesting.

  4. Confessions
    I am a fallen Anglican; the Anglican church comes in multiple flavors. The “High Church” is very close to the Catholic church.

  5. Torchbearer says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 8:56 pm
    Not sure if reported, but my Facebook is lighting up with reports the SA State Govt is going to privatise the trains and trams…would they be that stupid 4 days before an election. People aint happy.

    I’ll have a very large wager that the Liberals never bothered to mention that during their election campaign. Bastards.

  6. I have never understood self managing their superannuation accruals

    And that is from someone who spent a working life Banking Corporate Australia so analysing and questioning Balance Sheets, trading performances and forward projections

    Simply, Fund Mangers provide analysis and questioning plus provide diversity from Cash to Alternatives, the Risk Grading at your discretion

    Plus access to Global Assets

    Mind you I have never engaged an Australian Bank Fund Manager instead employing reputable International Fund Managers

    In Allocated Pension Phase the pooled nature of the funds under management delivers what it delivers

    The Industry which will be negatively impacted is the Accounting Industry because they will lose Fees (as will the likes of Wilson Asset Management)

    The full impact of the Capital losses from a bias to Australian Banks will hurt those so advised – so expect some “blow back” against those who provided such advice as the extent of the Capital Losses is front and centre

    The graphs of the Share Prices of the Australian Banks are what they are, including further losses today (noting the impact of going ex-dividend)

    The losses are very significant – and we are not likely to see any recovery in Share Price anytime soon

  7. Lurker, just posting to clarify the Catholic-Anglican debate.

    The Catholic church won’t marry divorcees, of which Bill Shorten is (from his first wife, Debbie Beale). In order to have been permitted to marry, again, in the Catholic Church Shorten and his first wife would’ve had to have their first marriage annulled, not a civil annulment but a Catholic Church annulment.

    A Catholic Church annulment is/can be a torturous process. Just ask Kim Beazley (you can read about it in the bio by Peter FitzSimons). He, and his first wife, had to endure a six hour “interview” (and that’s probably being generous) where they basically had to deny their relationship despite having been married for 15 years and having two children.

    One may well ask what kind of sadistic organisation puts people through that? And how can you be so blinded by your ‘faith’ to put up with crap like that? But it’s their personal choice however I completely understand why many don’t bother (what a betrayal of your previous relationship and family?) and just change religions, eg to Anglican, and get married there.

  8. Good news!

    Foxtel belly-up is accelerating.

    All of Australia’s sporting codes – including the AFL and NRL – could be impacted as pay TV provider Foxtel reins in spending on “non-marquee” sports, in a sign the era of record rights deals may be ending.

    Foxtel spends $800 million on sports rights each year and media analysts say moves to pull back spending by the pay TV giant could affect the entire sporting landscape.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/dead-in-the-water-foxtel-austerity-drive-signals-end-of-sports-rights-boom-20190514-p51n3v.html

  9. RE:SA privatisation…no they did not mention it before last years election.
    Labor left a small operating surplus, so the debt ‘black hole’ nonsense doesn’t fly here. They have tried it a few times already.

  10. For a party that’s supposedly broke, the Coalition is apparently spending huge amounts on advertising. Or is it their deep-pocketed friends?

  11. Meanwhile in Gilmore, Warren Mundine is tweeting this

    “A Bill Shorten government wants to force you to install an electric vehicle charging station whenever you build or renovate your home, whether you drive an electric car or not.This will cost homeowners thousands. Homeowners can’t afford Labor.”

    He cites his source. Angus ‘The Bull’ Taylor..

  12. Divorced Catholics can’t remarry in the church unless granted compensation. So the Anglican church would be the next best thing , especially if your new wife-to-be already belongs.
    HI and I , both lapsed RC , remarried quietly with a civil celebrant . Best decision ever!!

  13. I think Shorten’s second marriage was non-religious. His first marriage, given the family of the bride, was likely Anglican but a quick google does not show this.

    in any case I understand that Anglicans are just Catholics who want to divorce and masturbate

  14. Diogenes:

    My dad, who has a SMSF, told me he can avoid the franking credits problem by changing his investments to overseas companies. Dunno if it’s true.

    Yes – sort of…
    Any shares (whether overseas or local) paying unfranked dividends will of course not generate franking credits (but will pay the full dividend value). Overseas are always (?) unfranked, but incur foreign exchange risk.
    Bear in mind that elsewhere in the world it is “bonds for income, stocks for growth” and dividends are thus unusual.
    Relying on dividends for income is unwise in any event, since shares are inherently risky.
    If after a fixed income, your Dad may do better with bonds issued by mature Australian companies, but unfortunately they are very rare… (the plot thickens…)

  15. I agree Steve777 – would be good to see Broadcasters forced to disclose who is paying for the ads? I suspect we would find some very interesting invoices or entities who pay the invoices.

  16. Anglicans are those who consider that have fulfilled their religious duty by going to St Marks, Darling Point on Christmas Day.

  17. Is this really true??

    Alan Jones went on to say that if Labor wins the election, he’ll retire from radio and all public appearances.

    That must surely swing a few votes Labor’s way!

  18. Alan Jones went on to say that if Labor wins the election, he’ll retire from radio and all public appearances.

    Will anyone hold him to it though?

  19. “Apparently, Alan Jones has called the election for the Libs.”

    Well, that’s it then. Might as well not waste the money running the poll on Saturday

  20. Diog, just tell him put his money in Australian Super. Pays a motza. Costs almost nothing. No need to obsess over a PC every day, checking prices, dividends etc.

  21. About Hell
    I recently learned where the idea of the souls of the good going up and the souls of the bad going down originated.
    This is not a Jewish traditional idea. This was not introduced by the early Christians.
    The author was Socrates -(or Plato) in Plato’s “The Republic” – towards the end of Book 10.
    It seems logical that the hellenisation of the Alexandrian world pushed this idea, and that the pre-Christian Jews adopted it.
    Plato suggested that many of those sent downstairs would eventually be “let off” -but not the tyrants, who were the worst of the worst!

  22. “Raised a Blood. Now a Pie.

    This sectarian switch is at the heart of Nath’s hating on the dude.
    ___________________________
    Couldn’t have said it better brother.”

    This is clearly some kind of Melbourne-AFL obsession that you have taken to extreme lengths: I reckon you are probably like those Catholic adherents to the Latin mass – more than a bit crazy.

    The problem for Shorten was not that he left his team. Rather his team left him. In fact it left the whole city. Little wonder young Bill spent nearly a decade before settling on another team. I note that you hold him to a much higher standard as a melbourinan than you do Keating, who is clearly someone who gives zero fucks about AFL becoming the No.1 Pie ticketholder and miraculously declaring lifelong love and devotion.

    Now, as a sydneysider and someone not induced into this disturbing AFL cult I think I can offer a bit of perspective that you simply fail to bring to the table.

    I follow St George and even after the semi forced merger with Illawarra there was enough of the Dragons in the new outfit to keep on barracking for the big red V.

    However, some of my friends are Rabbito supporters and I bore witness to their agony for the years that Souths were booted out of the comp: many simply couldn’t find another team to follow. Not with any enthusiasm anyway. I reckon young Bill Shorten was in the same boat as my Rabbito friends during their team’s exile: back in those days I reckon it would be hard for a true blood to barrack for a team based in hated Sydney (fuck do you guys have some pent up insecurities about your place in the world, especially when it comes to comparing yourself with Sydney) and now named the Swans. Further, given the entrenched rivalry between inner suburban based teams, it would be pretty hard for a blood to find another Melbourne team to follow. No wonder the bloke took a decade to settle for Collingwood. And who the fuck cares that one factor he thought of at the time was his future political career – that’s as good a reason as any to choose a team: frack I only go for st George because my older brother goes for them and it’s just about the first thing I can remember as a 3 year old: him yelling at the TV when Langlands fucked up by playing a year too long. I digress. Has Bill been unfaithful to the Pies in the past 30 years? No. That must count. Surely.

  23. Sceptic:

    No apology from Barnaby for getting it wrong.

    Barnaby JoyceVerified account@Barnaby_Joyce
    12m12 minutes ago
    Matthew Kozal tells me it was not ABC Vote Compass, it was on ABC’s The Drum.

  24. Sorry Barney! I grew up west too (tho I guess Somerton Park’s more south really) but rented over here for a change of scene.

    My main impression of my fellow Sturt electors is “these people probably negatively gear” haha

  25. phylactella @ #1180 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:29 pm

    About Hell
    I recently learned where the idea of the souls of the good going up and the souls of the bad going down originated.
    This is not a Jewish traditional idea. This was not introduced by the early Christians.
    The author was Socrates -(or Plato) in Plato’s “The Republic” – towards the end of Book 10.
    It seems logical that the hellenisation of the Alexandrian world pushed this idea, and that the pre-Christian Jews adopted it.
    Plato suggested that many of those sent downstairs would eventually be “let off” -but not the tyrants, who were the worst of the worst!

    Actually, modern research is pointing to the possible fact that hell may refer to the area out of Jerusalem where poor people, not being able to afford tombs, placed there dearly departed. An arid area full of dead and rotting bodies. Not sure if this accepted by a academics as yet though.

  26. Lars Von Trier @ #1170 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:23 pm

    I agree Steve777 – would be good to see Broadcasters forced to disclose who is paying for the ads? I suspect we would find some very interesting invoices or entities who pay the invoices.

    Not to mention who is behind the funding inside and outside the major parties

    Fossil fuel donations up 32%
    In 2017-18, fossil fuel companies donated $1,277,933 to the ALP, Liberal and National parties. This was up 32% from $968,343 in 2016-17 ($1.03 million in 2015-16).

    Yet given Australia’s reputation for woefully inadequate political disclosure and ‘dark money’ donations, the true figure could be 5-10 times higher. Like last year, we found big discrepancies between what the major political parties disclosed, and how much the fossil fuel companies claimed to have gifted.

    https://www.marketforces.org.au/politicaldonations2019/

  27. Joseph

    Yes, in order to marry my Catholic aunt her new husband had to say he’d never been married to his first wife.

    Why living in sin and having children out of wedlock is more acceptable than divorce is a bit hard to fathom.

  28. Observer: ‘the Accounting Industry because they will lose Fees (as will the likes of Wilson Asset Management)’.

    It will be interesting to see if these accounting/financial advisors have their clients’ best interest at heart.

    Easy test – see how many advise their clients to get rid of the SMSF* and join an industry fund. I bet very few will do so.

    * Not all SMSF rely on investments in the sharemarket. Some funds invest in other things such as (beach) housing, art work etc. These investments don’t attract franking credits so will not be impacted by the change.

  29. Langlands problem was that he was given a local anaesthetic injection for groin pain and it allegedly infiltrated the obyurator nerve. I was at the game; it and his white boots was the strangest thing I have seen in Rugby League

  30. Andrew_Earlwood
    says:
    Has Bill been unfaithful to the Pies in the past 30 years? No. That must count. Surely.
    __________________
    We’ll see what sort of PM largesse comes our way. Starting with the PM’s post budget luncheon that Keating gave to Collingwood and worth a few hundred K. But that’s just for starters. He has to come through with a few million of value for us. Then I will think about voting for him.

  31. “davidwh says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 9:21 pm
    Apparently Jones also said he would retire if Labor wins. Abbott, Dutton and Jones the perfect trifecta.”

    Jones may be forcibly retired even if the LNP win. Apparently he is still engaged in contract negotiations with Macquarie Media; his current contract expires soon. Macquarie are reportedly upset at having to make large defamation payments on behalf of Jones. Also Hadley is reported to be eyeing Jones’ timeslot.

  32. Yabba! I have been looking for that photo for years. I understand it was edited out of late editions of Jonestown

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