Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

  1. A woman interviewed on 7.30 trumping all the ritzy commentators, at least from what I’ve seen. Asking what is this promise of Australia business Mr Morrison, it doesn’t make sense. And what he said doesn’t make sense. As usual.

  2. JM 7pm

    saw democracy in full glorious flight when the voters told Shane Stone to get stuffed over his naked power-grab rewrite of the statehood referendum

    I remember Shane Stone was so confident that he went to Asia on some political trip. I think he was a bit stunned when he came back about a week out from the referendum (same day as 1998 Federal election) and found the mood had changed as the details of his model got more publicity.

    In the end we both voted for statehood (my main reasoning was that it would be helpful for passing future Federal referenda, especially a Republic one, as it could break a 3-3 state deadlock, yet not overturn a 4-2 decision), but it lost 48-52.

    I think there were lessons in that loss for the Australian Republican Movement regarding sorting out and agreeing on a model – lessons which alas they didn’t seem to learn by 1999.

  3. Rocket Rocket @ #721 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 8:33 pm

    JM 7pm

    saw democracy in full glorious flight when the voters told Shane Stone to get stuffed over his naked power-grab rewrite of the statehood referendum

    I remember Shane Stone was so confident that he went to Asia on some political trip. I think he was a bit stunned when he came back about a week out from the referendum (same day as 1998 Federal election) and found the mood had changed as the details of his model got more publicity.

    In the end we both voted for statehood (my main reasoning was that it would be helpful for passing future Federal referenda as it could break a 3-3 state deadlock, yet not overturn a 4-2 decision), but it lost 48-52.

    I think there were lessons in that loss for the Australian Republican Movement regarding sorting out and agreeing on a model – lessons which alas they didn’t seem to learn by 1999.

    And, still have not.

  4. Dog’s Breakfast @ #1092 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 8:21 pm

    Bushfire Bill says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 7:44 pm
    Why feed the Nath Thing?

    _____________________________________________
    Not sure they can help it BB, I’ve taught kids who , having reasonable ability and some hope of success, but placed in a class with a student who has behaviour problems they can’t help themselves and usually provoke and /or reinforce the bad behaviour. Never understood it but I’m seeing it here too.

    Well the internet is obviously broken and if they don’t fix it by replying to the nath, they won’t be able to get to sleep – ever!

  5. Diogenes says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 8:37 pm

    What religion is Shorten?
    _____________________
    Nominally an Anglican. Behind closed doors Shorten worships himself.

  6. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 8:37 pm
    “Today’s Mumble. An interesting read.

    https://insidestory.org.au/a-close-election-draws-closer/”

    Quite.

    ————-
    Link seems to be broken.
    In any case, Mumble’s been wrong about everything for so long now I don’t set much store by what he thinks.
    When he started out he had something interesting to say — but it’s long since curdled into a pose of know-it-all cynicism.
    The Piping Shrike is another example of someone who’s pursued their pet theories right up their own arse.

  7. “What religion is Shorten?”

    Raised a Blood. Now a Pie.

    This sectarian switch is at the heart of Nath’s hating on the dude.

  8. “Link seems to be broken.
    In any case, Mumble’s been wrong about everything for so long now I don’t set much store by what he thinks.”

    There is that. I can relate in recent times though …

  9. Most likely posted already and so if advance apologies – Voter Choice results for week 4- 53. 2-46.8 in favour of the ALP. It’s a little down from last week’s stellar 55.1%:

    https://www.voterchoice.com.au/results-of-wave-14-election-weekly-survey-4/

    These passages of the commentary have good news and not so good news; this 2PP figure is said to be more accurate than previous weeks’- however the trend of movement from swinging voters was towards the coalition. Small numbers – it’s not a conventional poll – so usual disclaimers apply:

    Labor’s primary and 2PP are down from last week by the same amount – 1.9%. However, note the change in method: this isn’t the usual 2PPH6, because participants were not given the usual hypothetical 6 candidates – this is actual vote preferences plus indicated preferences from a list of actual candidates. Far more accurate (and difficult, but it’s been triple checked) than any other 2PP numbers.

    So where’s that movement from? All over the place, but a notable shift in what you might call true swinging voters – i.e. people who only really vote for major parties, and when they switch sides they completely shift to the other major party, as distinct from protest voters – moving from the ALP to the Coalition.

  10. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 8:41 pm

    “What religion is Shorten?”

    Raised a Blood. Now a Pie.

    This sectarian switch is at the heart of Nath’s hating on the dude.
    ___________________________
    Couldn’t have said it better brother.

  11. the only ads I am seeing on TV are that nasty anti Shorten Liberal ad, repeatedly, and an Australian Education Union anti Morrison ad, haven’t seen any Labor ads tonight anywhere.
    The Labor climate change ad that was featured on “The Drum” earlier on the ABC………..Labor should be replaying that one endlessly, especially on social media, which they are allowed to do up to Friday evening.

  12. The SmearStralian is now advising their decrepit readership how to avoid the franking credit cashback rort abolition. Running up the white flag in Holt St sheltered workshop?

    “Retirees with self-managed super funds could dodge Bill Shorten’s franking credit crackdown by shifting Australian equities into bank-run retail or industry funds that are in a “net tax” position, potentially blowing a hole in Labor’s $56 billion revenue projections.

    Analysis from investment bank Citi found there could be between $14bn and $35bn in savings ­moving from privately held self-­managed superannuation funds on to retail wealth investment platforms as retirees attempt to avoid Labor’s ban on excess franking credit refunds.”

  13. sprocket
    My dad, who has a SMSF, told me he can avoid the franking credits problem by changing his investments to overseas companies. Dunno if it’s true.

  14. Something to do with Henry VIII

    Speaking of which a friend of mine is promoting a musical
    based on the six wives of Henry VIII coming back to life as a girl band.

  15. Is Fran Bailey still alive? Would be interesting to hear her views on Scomo – she shanked him after all from the Tourism gig.

  16. Not sure if reported, but my Facebook is lighting up with reports the SA State Govt is going to privatise the trains and trams…would they be that stupid 4 days before an election. People aint happy.

  17. [‘In Peter Dutton’s electorate of Dickson, voters complained of being sent an envelope marked “Final notice: rent increase”. Inside, Liberal campaign material warned that Labor’s taxes would increase rents.’] – The Guardian

    Dutton’s getting really desperate

  18. GG
    Do you have to be Anglican to get married in an Anglican Church? Would they marry a practicing Catholic? (I have no problem at all with the change having had to go along with the Catholic thing for my wife when I married)

  19. Slightly off topic, the Kate Miller-Heidke effort at the Eurovision heats is something else…

    She is something.

    You wont be surprised to know her performance at the much smaller venue of the Ukaria Cultural Centre in nearby Mount Barker Springs on the 25th of May is a sellout.


  20. Diogenes says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 8:51 pm

    sprocket
    My dad, who has a SMSF, told me he can avoid the franking credits problem by changing his investments to overseas companies. Dunno if it’s true.

    Don’t even have to do that; invest in shares that offer less franking credits is all you have to do.

  21. Slightly off topic, the Kate Miller-Heidke effort at the Eurovision heats is something else…

    “Something else”… Could you please be more specific? e.g.:

    “Something other than a Eurovision entry”: Yay!
    “Something too weird for Eurovision”: Boo!
    etc.

  22. Dio

    Offshore companies avoid franking credits, or Australian domiciled companies with the bulk of the earnings offshore like Cochlear or CSL.

    Franking credits only accrue for earnings within Australia, on which the company pays tax. Any offshore earnings still attract tax, but not franking credits. More so for companies listed elsewhere like the FAANGS

  23. sprocket_ @ #262 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 6:48 pm

    The SmearStralian is now advising their decrepit readership how to avoid the franking credit cashback rort abolition. Running up the white flag in Holt St sheltered workshop?

    “Retirees with self-managed super funds could dodge Bill Shorten’s franking credit crackdown by shifting Australian equities into bank-run retail or industry funds that are in a “net tax” position, potentially blowing a hole in Labor’s $56 billion revenue projections.

    Analysis from investment bank Citi found there could be between $14bn and $35bn in savings ­moving from privately held self-­managed superannuation funds on to retail wealth investment platforms as retirees attempt to avoid Labor’s ban on excess franking credit refunds.”

    It was the 730 Report which profiled those retirees potentially affected who suggested if they move their savings into an industry super fund they will be exempt from Labor’s changes.

  24. Will Morrison/Liberals suffer a backlash like Daley/NSW Labor at election time?

    Australian-Chinese community outraged over Scott Morrison referring to Beijing as a ‘customer’

    Chinese social media has lit up with outrage after Prime Minister Scott Morrison described the United States as a “friend” while referring to China as a “customer”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-14/chinese-community-in-australia-reacts-scott-morrison-customers/11111186

  25. Do you have to be Anglican to get married in an Anglican Church?

    I was an atheist married in an Anglican church. No worries. The family I married into were regulars there tho. And I had attended several services by the by.
    But godparent vows there are pretty seriously churchie.

  26. Do you have to be Anglican to get married in an Anglican Church?

    A friend of mine who is atheist married her non practising anglican partner in an anglican church. No biggie according to the church.

  27. And what has happened with the Dutton childcare centre situation? This seemed to have been ignored but surely must be a live issue for re-examination as to eligibility given his likely re-election?

  28. Movement on Betfair tonight despite the 52-48 Morgan Poll to the ALP; LNP 7.40 into 6.40, that’s quite a big move in a few hours. ALP now 1.18.
    Either Profit Taking or the feeling with the ME in Polls just over 7.0 was too high…


  29. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 8:57 pm

    frednk @ #746 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 8:55 pm

    Kristina Keneally is not allowed to defend hers? It was Scott Morrison that bad mouth Catholics with his Pope comment.

    Serious crap!

    If Scott Morrison was a catholic his comment was fair enough, but he isn’t is he. Kristina Keneally is, with a Theology degree, I think it is quite fair she defends her faith.

  30. 1. Shorten pissed of with Catholic Church (for obvious reasons);

    2. Wife’s Anglican;

    3. Politician… needs a faith to publicly adhere to.

    = Anglican is as good as anything.

  31. Just looking at the seat change distribution implied by the odds of the ALP winning combined with the odds of a hung parliament.

    A week ago it implied a mean ALP outcome of 83 seats but with a whopping 11 seat standard deviation.
    Right now it’s 80 seats with a 6 seat standard deviation.

    3% chance of an LNP majority
    11% chance of an LNP minority
    9% chance of an ALP minority
    77% chance of an ALP majority

    It’s definitely an assumption dependent calculation, but it does fit the idea of a tightening but time is running out.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *