Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

  1. Interesting that the better states for the ALP in newspoll are states with a govt perceived as competent. Wa. Vic and Qld. Maybe the “cant manage money” campaign doesnt resonate as well with lived experience in those states. States with Lib govts. Nsw. Tas and sa. Are pretty neutral or possibly swing to coalition. Any thoughts?

  2. Diogenes @ #1121 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 6:51 pm

    sprocket
    My dad, who has a SMSF, told me he can avoid the franking credits problem by changing his investments to overseas companies. Dunno if it’s true.

    Yes, but Australian shares tend to pay higher yields than their overseas counterparts, so that might not have the desired effect.

    The level of income would be reduced, quite possibly by more than he’s going to “lose” from not getting a franking rebate handout.

    Another factor with overseas shares is currency fluctuations. Even if the share price stays dead flat (ie no movement up or down), the value of them when converted into $AU can be very volatile due to movements in the exchange rate between the $AU and the company’s local currency.

  3. FWIW, the “Swans” name doesn’t have anything to do with the move to Sydney, they were always called the Swans. At least back to about the 1930s. The “Bloods” was an unofficial nickname, shortened from the “Blood-stained Angels” due to the red and white jumpers.

  4. Just saw the Nat ads for Cowper.

    1. “BS for PM” (BS = Bill Shorten),

    2. Oakeshott BOO! (He voted for the hated Carbon Tax)

  5. Last theological question. If you are Catholic (christened etc) do you just have to turn up to an Anglican Church to be considered Anglican or is there something more formal? Funnily enough I know an Anglican priest who was married and then converted to Catholicism and was allowed to stay married which must make him one of the few married Catholic priests in the world.

  6. Expat, funny how the swans (football team) are white when the swans (birds) around South Melbourne (ie Albert Park Lake) are black!

  7. Diogenes @ #1130 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 6:56 pm

    GG
    Do you have to be Anglican to get married in an Anglican Church? Would they marry a practicing Catholic? (I have no problem at all with the change having had to go along with the Catholic thing for my wife when I married)

    My Dad, a Catholic, married an Anglican (my mum, obviously) in an Anglican Church. Neither one of them could be described as “practicing” their respective faiths, before or since.

  8. Did anyone hear about this?

    Alice Workman
    @workmanalice

    The Coalition has rolled out ads at 12,000 petrol stations across 5 states in a bid to target undecided voters.

    The “Pump TV” ads don’t fall under the media blackout and can catch people in the rare few moments they can’t look at their phones.

  9. Diogenes, my OH’s great grandfather was a Catholic Priest.

    When she mentions it, people say that can’t be possible, but it is true.

  10. “PeeBee says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 9:44 pm
    Expat, funny how the swans (football team) are white when the swans (birds) around South Melbourne (ie Albert Park Lake) are black!”

    Swans nickname came about apparently due to an influx of west Aussies in the 30s or something

    Red and white dates back long before then …previous nickname was the blood stained angels

  11. Dio – I think there are a fair few ex-Anglican and ex-Lutheran priests in that boat. In the USA apparently even more who left the Episcopalians (they don’t use the name Church of England there, or mention the Queen!)

  12. davidwh says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 9:21 pm

    Apparently Jones also said he would retire if Labor wins. Abbott, Dutton and Jones the perfect trifecta.

    It could be he’s about to get forced out and he’s using this as a face saving device.

  13. Charles @ #1198 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:47 pm

    Did anyone hear about this?

    Alice Workman
    @workmanalice

    The Coalition has rolled out ads at 12,000 petrol stations across 5 states in a bid to target undecided voters.

    The “Pump TV” ads don’t fall under the media blackout and can catch people in the rare few moments they can’t look at their phones.

    How’s that supposed to work psychologically?

    Vote for the Coalition because we advertise on the petrol you like to pump!?!

  14. There was a married Catholic priest in Applecross WA a few years ago.

    A converted Anglican.

    From what I heard he was a good man.

  15. Roger, pity I can’t go back in time and ask questions. A relative was involved with South Melbourne FC back after the WW1 and eventually moved up to run the VFL, establishing Harrison House (Cnr of Flinders Lane and Spring St) in 1924 (I think) etc.

    Unfortunately long gone and I can’t ask him about this early football history.

  16. Tom
    The area outside Jerusalem was “Ketef Hinnom”, also known as “Gehenna”. It was used for rubbish disposal, and burial
    The Hebrew word “sheol” is translated as “hell”. It was deep underground, but otherwise there is little information. The dead just went there – no judgement, no suffering, just waiting, waiting…

  17. I find it fascinating that Shorten has bought up hell and sin and demands Morrison tells us his thoughts on it, full on weird. He had an opportunity earlier on to jam Morrison about his big C Christian beliefs when Morrison allowed the media in. Photos of him with his arm up praising the Lord and everything. Curiouser and curiouser! Shorten is spooked. Still don’t think we will win but Shorten is spooked to bring up such a desperate tactic.

  18. sprocket_ @ #1136 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 6:59 pm

    the FAANGS

    The only FAANGS company that has ever paid a dividend is Apple. None of the others have, nor does it seem they ever will. Not in the immediate future anyway

    Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway has been in existence for over 50 years, and currently has a cash stockpile of over US$116 billion. It also received over US$700 million last year in dividends just from its investment in Apple.

    Despite all that, Berkshire Hathaway has never paid, nor does it have any intention of ever paying a dividend.

  19. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 9:51 pm
    There was a married Catholic priest in Applecross WA a few years ago.

    A converted Anglican.

    From what I heard he was a good man.

    I knew him and his family. I used to listen to rock music with one of his sons….Rod Stewart was a favourite. The priest was a likeable bloke…parish of St. Benedict (?), just off Canning Highway….

  20. Just Quietly @ #1202 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:41 pm

    Interesting that the better states for the ALP in newspoll are states with a govt perceived as competent. Wa. Vic and Qld. Maybe the “cant manage money” campaign doesnt resonate as well with lived experience in those states. States with Lib govts. Nsw. Tas and sa. Are pretty neutral or possibly swing to the coalition. Any thoughts?

    I think back to the 2014 Vic state election and the ALP’s promise to remove 50 level crossings. Having spent 20 years living near a diabolical crossing that had numerous plans and community consultations but no action (from both side of politics) I felt this was more of the same. Friends in the area felt the same. There was general disillusionment that politics could lead to change.

    But a block of wood looked more proactive than the incumbent Liberal government so Andrews scraped a win.

    Four years later, with the simple strategy of following through on infrastructure promises and doing the hard work to slowly implement some socially progressive changes (e.g. euthanasia laws*) and Andrews earned a crushing win – that could end up flowing through to a federal win.

    So, yeah I’d agree with your thesis that many swinging voters aren’t on board with the idea that politics can mean a positive change.

    * Fiona Patterson does deserve a huge slice of credit for getting this one over the line.

  21. C@t,
    A lot of people are going to see those adds then see the bill.
    They will walk back to their car and think, why can’t sun fill my car up instead.

  22. Diogenes

    Married catholic priests are not uncommon.

    Major sources are ex Anglican priests and ex eastern orthodox priests. Orthodox religions are catholic but they do not Rome, and priestly marriage is the norm (Rome = no allegiance/ recognition of the pope)

  23. Diogenes @ #1202 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 9:43 pm

    Last theological question. If you are Catholic (christened etc) do you just have to turn up to an Anglican Church to be considered Anglican or is there something more formal? Funnily enough I know an Anglican priest who was married and then converted to Catholicism and was allowed to stay married which must make him one of the few married Catholic priests in the world.

    I have heard of a process (or service?) within the Anglican church to do such a thing. I know of people that have done it. I don’t know whether it is for ‘de-catholicing’ so to speak or to become an Anglican though. I don’t think that it is common though. There is also a process where you can ‘un take’ your wedding vows (in case of divorce) also, but again, I don’t know much about it and I don’t think it is very commonly done.

  24. FS…could have been Williams…can’t say for sure, but sounds right…the priest certainly evinced a pastoral calmness and sense of optimism…nice bloke, I thought…I must have been about 13 or 14 at the time…

  25. Didn’t BB occasionally contribute articles to the Political Sword’s blog?

    Or was that someone else’s blog?

    I’m getting old …

  26. Albert park used to have white swans. According to wikipedia they were removed in the 80s and 90s.

    Probably 80s. If they were still there after that, I wouldn’t have had to travel to Northam, WA to “tick” them (Mute Swan).

  27. Last theological question. If you are Catholic (christened etc) do you just have to turn up to an Anglican Church to be considered Anglican or is there something more formal? Funnily enough I know an Anglican priest who was married and then converted to Catholicism and was allowed to stay married which must make him one of the few married Catholic priests in the world.

    i went to anglican churches till i couldn’t believe Jesus was somehow God; i think there was some administrative process they should’ve followed, but they just recorded me as a member and that was that.

    there’s a great many married catholic priests in the middle east.

  28. Fulvio
    I used to enjoy TPS but haven’t been near for awhile. This one is pretty much how many feel. Unfortunately not many editors in the MSM would allow it through.

  29. “FWIW, the “Swans” name doesn’t have anything to do with the move to Sydney, they were always called the Swans. At least back to about the 1930s. The “Bloods” was an unofficial nickname, shortened from the “Blood-stained Angels” due to the red and white jumpers.”

    Sure. Technically correct. However, “Bloods” was effectively excised from the Swans folk lore for over 20 years following the move: it was only after the club realised they could capitalise on a hard to kill South Melbourne culture that “the Bloods” made a comeback: the Bloods now have an effective ‘home away from home’ supporter base which I think really helps them travel well. Excluding this year, when everything is turning to shite.

  30. shiftaling says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 9:34 pm

    Sorry Barney! I grew up west too (tho I guess Somerton Park’s more south really) but rented over here for a change of scene.

    My main impression of my fellow Sturt electors is “these people probably negatively gear” haha

    I’ve a cousin in Sturt who definitely would be, he’s always had a fixation for making money.

    But, the southwest beach suburbs were a great place to grow up, beaches, plenty of sports clubs, the Bay Oval, Marion, but as I grew up I discovered it was also very very white.

    Looking at William’s Boothby page it still is above average in this regard.

    When I visit now it initially feels strange being surrounded by just white people and I feel more comfortable walking around the shops at Marion where things are much more culturally diverse.

  31. @ Barney – Lots white people spook me too!! And what’s with pedestrian crossings in Australia.? Motorists actually stop and let you cross!!

  32. Jones is banking on the Shorten “rape charges re-investigation” post on Facebook (referred to on earlier post here)to railroad the Election .. which is obviously the intention of the story which will now be covered in all Murdoch media. I’ve been waiting for this. The will of the people is about to be denied by the powerful few.
    Maybe everyone here should be looking at what’s actually happening rather than raving on about religion.

  33. A_E

    I think Barassi going there in 1993 started the push to re-engage their Melbourne supporters. Eventually opening an office in South Melbourne with I think former player Tony Morwood running it. And yes I think it does make a difference. I know some supporters – when their team was shifted in 1982 they were ‘promised’ eleven games a year in Melbourne but of course as other non-Victorian teams came into the league this has progressively fallen to about six now. But they make damn sure they go to those games!

    Interestingly when Leigh Matthews went to coach the Brisbane Lions in 1999 he also got them to try and re-engage old Fitzroy supporters with some success, and they started making more of an effort in Melbourne to maintain their historical ties.

  34. Upnorth says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:23 pm

    @ Barney – Lots white people spook me too!! And what’s with pedestrian crossings in Australia.? Motorists actually stop and let you cross!!

    But if you walk out into traffic, they don’t swerve to avoid you! 🙂

  35. Dubopov says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:25 pm
    Jones is banking on the Shorten “rape charges re-investigation” post on Facebook (referred to on earlier post here)to railroad the Election .. which is obviously the intention of the story which will now be covered in all Murdoch media. I’ve been waiting for this. The will of the people is about to be denied by the powerful few.
    Maybe everyone here should be looking at what’s actually happening rather than raving on about religion.
    —————
    I doubt even News Corp will pick it up. The complainant has only hinted she has new evidence and appears to have enlisted the support of retired QC Peter Faris (a well-known Tory: he used to have a show on Melbourne’s short-lived MTR radio station). The legal risks are just way too high for what’s a very thin story.

  36. William Bowe says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 10:23 pm

    William if you are around – will you have the live voting results with swings etc working on Sat night?

    I can only offer an “I hope so” at this stage.

    Be confident, oh Great One!

    Hope all your effort pays off. 🙂

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *