Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

Comments Page 18 of 27
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  3. Looking forward to voting all boxes below the line in Qld Senate for first time. Anning last, then Palmer, then rest of Anning party, then rest of UAP, then ONP. Am I allowed to take a photo?

  6. Kezza,

    To ensure your vote doesn’t exhaust you need number every box above the line or every box below it. This will ensure that your vote is still live at the end of the count.

    However you may reach a point where you think all the remaining candidates are equally repugnant to you and decide to stop. In this case if 2 of these are fighting for the last spot your vote will have exhausted and you won’t contribute to who is finally elected.

    The choice is yours! 🙂

  9. Leroy @ #786 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 4:35 pm

    FWIW. I don’t take Roy Morgan’s face to face polling too seriously, still, its data.

    https://twitter.com/roymorganonline/status/1128185675843612672

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7975-alp-regains-initiative-with-a-week-to-go-201905140553

    ALP regains initiative with a week to go: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%
    May 14 2019 Finding No. 7975

    The last face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll before the election shows the ALP regaining the initiative and pulling away from the L-NP with an election winning two-party preferred lead: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%.

    The increase for the ALP came through an increased primary vote at the expense of the Greens according to the final face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll of the Federal Election and indicates the chances of Australia electing a hung Parliament this weekend have diminished.

    Primary Voting Intention

    Primary support for the L-NP was unchanged at 38.5% this week but support for the ALP increased by 1.5% to 35.5%. The ALP gained support from the Greens, down 1% to 10%.

    Support for One Nation was unchanged at 4% and support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP) was unchanged at 3.5%. Support for Independents/Others is down marginally by 0.5% to 8.5%.

    In a worrying sign for the L-NP Government the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped 6pts to 93 this week with 44.5% of electors (up 3.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’ and only 37.5% (down 2.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’.

    The ON number is not credible as they are only running in 5 seats.

  10. Andrew _Earlwood:’The one single biggest and best thing we can do is to stop native vegetation clearing dead in its tracks.’

    I would like to see this done too. I have recently come back from SW WA where great areas have been cleared (mainly between 1900 to 1960). Unfortunately, very poor country that is now mainly used for Blue Gum plantations for wood chips. The remaining forests/heath are a great tourist attractions.

    Stopping clearing would help reduce our emissions but I think the effects of Global Warming will do a bit of clearing anyway. (Incidentally and other positive feedback mechanism). I have travelled extensively around this country and noticed deforestation due to drought. Probably, the most stark was an area between Cooma and Jyndabyne where the woodland consisting of a great number of very large Gum trees which had recently died. The area is becoming just grassland.

  12. Andrew_Earlwood @ #840 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 5:06 pm

    “We can produce and export clean energy.

    It says a lot that you’d fail to acknowledge that in your post above.

    Perhaps you should stop indulging in protectionism of pollution that’s destroying the planet AND THE ECONOMY.”

    Want to run some numbers on the value of clean energy exports vs thermal coal exports? What that means to both our economy and also government revenue?

    I’m all for transitioning to clean energy, especially if there is a value add for local jobs and also exports, but why emasculate ourselves while that transition is happening? You are just being daft.

    The cost of inaction renders any argument for the protection of thermal coal generated energy illogical. You SHOULD know that.

  13. Just to correct your grammar Matt31 to the new speak, I think you mean:
    ‘…surely if the Murdoch rags have unleashed dirt on Shorten, tomorrow was the day they did it?’

    LISTER: Hey, it hasn’t happened, has it? It has “will have going to have happened” happened, but it hasn’t actually “happened” happened yet, actually.

    RIMMER: Poppycock! It will be happened; it shall be going to be happening; it will be was an event that could will have been taken place in the future. Simple as that. Your bucket’s been kicked, baby.

  15. I’ve had little confidence in Morgan either, but it must be said that it has been pretty close to other polls in the field during this campaign. It is nice to see one edge back in the right direction; I predict it won’t be the last poll we see this week that increases Labor’s lead.

  16. lizzie @ #842 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 5:03 pm

    Quentin getting very fired up.

    Quentin Dempster
    ‏@QuentinDempster
    3h3 hours ago

    WARNING to all Australian electors: Clive Palmer (UAP) is a charlatan. In the 80s he was behind “the white shoe brigade” and Joh for PM. He’s now out to buy a Queensland Senate seat to further his Galilee basin coal interests.

    …and is best buds with Morrison.

    #NoMoreMorrison

  19. Stephen Mayne has just tweeted that the Greens will win 3 or 4 Lower House seats. I can see two maybe three at a stretch. Four? Yeah Nah.

  20. Emissions is one area where Australia punches above its weight, with 0.32% of the world’s population generating 1.5% of the world’s carbon emissions. If we reduce our emissions by 50%, we reduce world emissions by about 0.75%. A useful contribution. Of course on its own not enough to fix the problem here since we share the atmosphere with the world – the big Corporates haven’t yet found a way to buy it all up and sell it to the highest bidder. However, with the EU on bored, China and India starting to take it seriously and hopefully the USA from 2021, there’s a chance of avoiding catastrophe. There;s no chance if we say it;s too hard or too expensive and do nothing.

    If it were war, the right wingers would be fully on board. They wouldn’t be bemoaning the cost and saying it’s all too hard. If it could be fixed with guns and bombs, they’d be gung ho.

  21. Reference earlier enquiry. On Senate voting.
    It’s EITHER above the line OR below the line, according to the papers I have received. Not both.

  22. Sgi @ #796 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 4:26 pm

    @BH

    Not sure how to @ on here evening though I’ve been peeping since 07 i think? PB is a daily ritual for me, even outside of cycles.
    It was a great ad, and I hope my recent contribution helped it run further. I generally stick to QLD and VIC elections in terms of cashish and feet on the ground. Not this time, something must be working for folk like me

    Sgi
    Well it’s good that you’re posting now. The ad seems to have a touched a nerve. Lots of views on social media and we’ve seen it on Sky and the ABC. I avoid FTA if I can but will hop around a few stations tonight to see if it’s being shown.

    I saw a little of Morrison’s presser this arvo – now he’s telling us that we need him to save us from a world of pain with a downturn. Bill should just debunk that with ‘who saved us from the GFC recession’.

  24. The thing with Morgan is that when it’s on trend, it’s not bad… but when it’s off trend, it’s SPECTACULARLY off trend.

    Which is why on the whole, I don’t take into consideration.

  26. Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 5:23 pm

    Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #858 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 5:21 pm

    Rex,

    Do you understand what the word “transition” means?

    It means nothing without an end date.

    Thought so, nfi!

  27. “The cost of inaction renders any argument for the protection of thermal coal generated energy illogical. You SHOULD know that.”

    Typical Rex. Set up a straw man. I’m not talking inaction. Labor is not talking inaction. Only you frame this as a Boolean logic exercise, when it is anything but.

  29. I’m no expert on Australian politics – I don’t know all the cross-currents that will determine this week’s balloting.

    But I do know a fair amount about the climate crisis, having written the first book on the subject back in 1989. So I can say with confidence that if Australians want to play a serious role in fixing the greatest challenge we’ve ever faced, this may be about the last election where people retain enough leverage to make a real difference.

    Global warming, after all, is a math problem: how quickly can we reverse the flow of carbon into the atmosphere? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in its report last year, said that unless a fundamental transformation was fully underway by 2030, we stood no chance of meeting the targets the world set in the Paris climate accords. No matter what country you’re in, “fundamental transformations” don’t come overnight; if you want to dramatically trim carbon emissions in 2030, it means you better start in 2020.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/14/weve-run-out-of-elections-to-waste-this-is-the-last-chance-to-make-a-difference-on-climate-change?CMP=share_btn_tw

  30. lizzie says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 5:24 pm

    Reference earlier enquiry. On Senate voting.
    It’s EITHER above the line OR below the line, according to the papers I have received. Not both.

    100% correct! 🙂

  31. A lot of defeatism and paranoia in here again today, which just encourages the likes of Rex and Nath.
    Everyone, take a deep breath and calm down!
    As I said this morning, watch where Morrison and Shorten are travelling to this week, which seats they are campaigning in, that will tell you the true state of the campaign and what their internal polling is telling them.

  32. I just look at the state by state newspoll, and I have to say the big NSW swing back to the LNP looks rougish. What would have brought this on? I know they are shallow and selfish, but are they really so easily scared by TAX TAX TAX up there?

    I’m still thinking LNP will lose a net at least 2 seats in NSW, 2-4 in Qld, at least 1 in WA and 4 or so in Vic. any losses in tas or NT will not matter. plus the LNPO losing a few to indies. An 8-10 seat ALP victory will do (in fact, a 1 seat majority will do too – especially if it is Dickson or Warringah).

  33. Stephen mayne are teal tory now?

    When will the water melons wake up and realise they have lost? Whatever fantasies they projected on to the Greens Political Party this thing aint it!

  34. The Bolt Report
    @theboltreport

    TONIGHT: The two faces of Zali Steggall. Plus, is Bill Shorten a fake Christian? Live at 7pm AEST on @SkyNewsAust
    _______
    Perhaps, unlike the full on Pentecostal Morrison, Shorten doesn’t believe that homosexuality is an abomination under God.

  35. From Amy’s blog. Boy i hope she is on the money with this !

    . At this stage. From what I am hearing from Queensland, the Clive Palmer preference deal isn’t playing over well (much like the One Nation preference deals in some of the state elections recently) so I would expect that to pop up, somewhere.

  36. guytaur @ #861 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 5:23 pm

    Stephen Mayne has just tweeted that the Greens will win 3 or 4 Lower House seats. I can see two maybe three at a stretch. Four? Yeah Nah.

    Stephen Mayne is the Australian equivalent of a Never Trumper. He’s a Never Labor man. So if it looks like Labor have a sniff at a seat he’ll prefer to say The Greens are the front-runners.

  37. BK @ #876 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 5:31 pm

    The Bolt Report
    @theboltreport

    TONIGHT: The two faces of Zali Steggall. Plus, is Bill Shorten a fake Christian? Live at 7pm AEST on @SkyNewsAust
    Perhaps, unlike the full on Pentecostal Morrison, Shorten doesn’t believe that homosexuality is an abomination under God.

    But it was Morrison who was disavowing his religion today by stating that he didn’t believe that homosexuals would go to hell.

  38. poroti @ #860 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 5:31 pm

    From Amy’s blog. Boy i hope she is on the money with this !

    . At this stage. From what I am hearing from Queensland, the Clive Palmer preference deal isn’t playing over well (much like the One Nation preference deals in some of the state elections recently) so I would expect that to pop up, somewhere.

    I’m reading that Palmer is not paying people to hand out for him on Saturday. Which means their vote will likely be a lot less than has been forecast. I’d say Palmer is confident he’ll get a Senate seatin Qld and has walked away from any “deal” he had with the Libs.

  39. I apologise in advance for this, but it does prove there’s no accounting for taste.

    The Cathy Wilcox
    ‏@cathywilcox1

    Met a woman today in the plaza, we got chatting about this and that (I thought she was going to evangelise at me) and before you knew it she was telling me she thought Tony Abbott was a bit of all right, pulled out her phone to show me a pic of him as action man in his budgies

  40. The Bolt Report
    @theboltreport

    TONIGHT: The two faces of Zali Steggall. Plus, is Bill Shorten a fake Christian? Live at 7pm AEST on @SkyNewsAust

    Shakes head and walks away. Who gives a rates ass.

  41. Rex, in responding to Barney – “Do you understand what the word “transition” means?

    “It means nothing without an end date.”

    The point is that the “end date” for the global transition will not be set by australia: it will be set by the world’s coal consumers. Therefore token, unilateral, virtue signalling has no value, other than the damage, the own goal, it does to Australia.

    If the “end date” is thirty years, then there is nothing wrong with Australia exporting coal up to that date and it will be a commercial decision of whether to do so. On the other hand, if a miracle happens and that “end date” is 10 years, then those who own coal assets will have to cut their cloth accordingly. So be it.

  42. But it was Morrison who was disavowing his religion today by stating that he didn’t believe that homosexuals would go to hell.
    _____
    C@t
    Proving he’s a fake Pentecostal.

  43. C#t, ‘But it was Morrison who was disavowing his religion today by stating that he didn’t believe that homosexuals would go to hell.’

    wow, he would say anything to hang onto power.

  44. C#t, ‘But it was Morrison who was disavowing his religion today by stating that he didn’t believe that homosexuals would go to hell.’

    wow, he would say anything to hang onto power.

  45. Cheryl Kernot
    ‏@cheryl_kernot
    23m23 minutes ago

    Bill Shorten did not first raise the Israel Folau comments as Morrison is attempting to insinuate as usual.Morrison sidestepped a question from the travelling press who followed up with another question to each the next day. Morrison caught out being sneaky & gets snarky #auspol

  46. Surely most of the undecided are young and for them the big tossup is lab or green. The libs aren’t in the picture. What am I missing?

  48. Just saw a very powerful Labor attack ad on climate change. On 7 watching the chaser
    Hope it is repeated at regular intervals

  50. BK says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 5:36 pm

    But it was Morrison who was disavowing his religion today by stating that he didn’t believe that homosexuals would go to hell.
    _____
    C@t
    Proving he’s a fake Pentecostal.

    Actually he made no statement about what he believes, he just stated the legal situation in Australia.

    Afaik, there was no follow up question asking if he agreed with that, or if he would like to see that change.

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