Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019

Aggregated state breakdowns from Newspoll suggest solid swings in Victoria and Queensland will tip a close result in Labor’s favour.

No Essential Research poll today, unfortunately – hopefully it is holding back for a pre-election poll later in the week. What we do have though, courtesy of The Australian, is the long-awaited (by me at least) state breakdowns from Newspoll, aggregated from the results of its last five polls going back to the start of April.

The results fit pretty well with the broader campaign narrative in recording Labor with a 54-46 lead in Victoria – which is actually up on its 53-47 lead in the January-March aggregate, and points to a swing of over 2% – whereas the Coalition has recovered elsewhere, in some places rather strongly. The Coalition is credited with a 51-49 lead in New South Wales, which improves not only on its 54-46 deficit in January-March, but also on the 50-50 result at the 2016 election. Queensland is at 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 in January-March, although this still points to a 4% swing to Labor that would deliver them an election-winning swag of seats if uniform. The Coalition has opened up a 52-48 lead in Western Australia, after Labor led 51-49 in January-March, suggesting a swing to Labor approaching 3% since 2016. Labor now holds a 52-48 lead in South Australia, down from 56-44, pointing to a status quo result there. You can find the primary vote numbers catalogued under the “poll data” tab on BludgerTrack.

Suggestions of a status quo result in South Australia are also encouraged by yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll for The Advertiser of Boothby, the state’s most likely loss for the Liberals. The poll credited Liberal member Nicolle Flint with a lead of 53-47, essentially unchanged on her post-redistribution margin of 2.7%. With the disappearance of the Nick Xenophon Team, both major parties are well up on the primary vote – Liberal from 41.7% (on YouGov Galaxy’s post-redistribution reckoning) to 47%, Labor from 26.9% to 37% – with the Greens on 9% (8.2% at the previous election) and the United Australia Party on 3%. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 520. Boothby is also the subject of today’s episode of Seat du jour.

Another bit of seat polling news comes from The Guardian, which reports a poll conducted for the Greens by the little-heralded Environment Research and Counsel shows the Liberals in grave danger in its traditional Victorian stronghold seat of Higgins. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 36%, Labor 30% and Greens 29%, which would make it a question of which out of Labor and the Greens would drop out at the second last count and deliver victory to the other. Skeptics have been keen to note that the Greens were hawking a similarly optimistic poll from Higgins before the 2016 election, at which did well but not that well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll state breakdowns: April-May 2019”

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  1. “Surely most of the undecided are young and for them the big tossup is lab or green. The libs aren’t in the picture. What am I missing?”

    You’d be surprised how many young fogeys there are out there.

  2. frednk @ #890 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 5:35 pm

    The Bolt Report
    @theboltreport

    TONIGHT: The two faces of Zali Steggall. Plus, is Bill Shorten a fake Christian? Live at 7pm AEST on @SkyNewsAust

    Shakes head and walks away. Who gives a rates ass.

    What happened to us being a secular society? I’ve always valued that.
    It’s a shame that Bob Hawke is not able to get stuck into that one – fake Christian indeed. I reckon Shorten’s exudes more Christian ethic than Morrison could ever find. I’m having a hard job finding any genuine sincerity in Morrison. It all seems confected.

  3. It Looks like Morrison will say he dosnt believe the Pentacostal beliefs that Gays are going to hell just to try to win a few votes.
    Or is Morrison a fake pentacostal who dosnt believe all their crazy ideas like the literal interpretation of the bible and speaking in “tongues” ,etc

  4. There is enough evidence to know with certainty that Morrison is a habitual and deliberate liar and that he is prepared to lie about anything at all.

  5. Merlin @ #880 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 5:45 pm

    It Looks like Morrison will say he dosnt believe the Pentacostal beliefs that Gays are going to hell just to try to win a few votes.
    Or is Morrison a fake pentacostal who dosnt believe all their crazy ideas like the literal interpretation of the bible and speaking in “tongues” ,etc

    It’s actually more nuanced. He said he doesn’t want them to go to hell.

  6. It would be ironic, if a bit unlikely, were Morrison to go to Hell for denying the Lord’s Word on gays burning in Hell.

  7. I agree with davidwh,
    There are far more important questions to ask Morrison.

    Like the fake legislation that deals with animal extinction
    or how are you going to meet the emission targets when emissions keep going up
    or how can you claim to be better at managing money, when you have blown out the budget by double since you got into government.
    Or do you even happen to have a plan to improve the NBN
    Or how can you say the economy is strong when interest rates are projected to drop.

  8. ‘davidwh says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 5:47 pm

    Providing it doesn’t affect his job as PM then Morrison’s religious views are his own.’

    If he is lying about his views then his views are affecting his job.
    Voting against SSM is affecting his job.
    Arguably, he seems to believe that because he is doing the Lord’s Work he can lie with impunity.

  9. Morrison has made this election about himself. That’s not right, but it is why it gets personal.
    #NoMoreMorrison

  10. In the light of the Israel Folau matter, I think it’s fairly important to know whether the bloke who wants to be PM reckons anyone at all is going to hell – or heaven for that matter.

    It is well known that all dogs go to heaven, of course, and some cats. I knew a budgie once named Henry who died trying to fly all the way Upstairs. The odd Blue-Ringed Octopus has slithered and slimed his way through the Pearly Gates, I am told. Humans can look after themselves. It’s none of a PM’s business. His responsibilities are strictly temporal.

  11. Morrison: “I’m not running for pope”.
    Yes – you can tell… if you were running for pope you’d seek support FROM from George Pell, not try and give support TO……..

  12. Nicko

    Like the fake legislation that deals with animal extinction

    There is where his religion may cause a problem. What with end times almost upon us is there any real need to do anything ?

  13. I think all of us have done something some religion would say means we are going to hell. Why bring same sex people into the politics just to create a bullshit political storm.

  14. The ALP partisans know that they have the wrong leader, but what are you going to do? At this stage, party hacks and their stooge supporters have to go all the way with the Shorten dud. He may scrape over the line, I think there is a good chance of a hung Parliament. Either way, with a tiny majority or with a minority government Shorten will look weak and his policies will probably not get through. All in all, a terrible outcome for a change of government election for the ALP.

  15. I would have thought it’s equally important to know whether ScoMo is a fake zChristian. He’s the one who (literally) makes a song and dance of it, not Bill.

  16. Boerwar

    There is enough evidence to know with certainty that Morrison is a habitual and deliberate liar and that he is prepared to lie about anything at all.

    That’s the real point.

  17. Magnificent spectacle of climate protest action on the Sydney Harbour Bridge this morning.

    Sadly condemned by our crumbling 2 conservative party duopoly!

  18. @davidwh….”Why bring same sex people into the politics just to create a bullshit political storm.”………

    Because some politicians ( of all persuasions ) have used religion as a basis for their politics…..the SSM debate is one example.

  19. “Surely most of the undecided are young and for them the big tossup is lab or green. The libs aren’t in the picture. What am I missing?”

    Got no idea what demographic most of them are from.
    My guess is it’s the “what’s in it for me” lot, waiting for the best deal

  20. Boerwar

    There is enough evidence to know with certainty that Morrison is a habitual and deliberate liar and that he is prepared to lie about anything at all.

    Ah but if you are “Lying for Jesus” then it is OK.

  21. WB: The Higgins and Boothby links in this story that go to pollbludger.com rather than pollbludger.net

    pollbludger.com is owned by someone in Japan by the looks.

  22. ‘davidwh says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 5:54 pm

    I think all of us have done something some religion would say means we are going to hell. ‘

    Not me. But what did you do?

  23. ‘frednk says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 6:00 pm

    Nicko
    I suspect Nath and Rex post out of a Liberal senators office.’

    Which one?

  24. Pithicus. My nephew told me the number one issue for him and all his mates is climate chang. They are rightly terrified because they’re going to get the bill. The big issue for him was lab or green.

  25. ‘antonbruckner11 says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 6:03 pm

    Pithicus. My nephew told me the number one issue for him and all his mates is climate chang. ‘

    Hmmm. So, the Chinese vote will be crucial.

  26. Even the British Tories have declared a climate emergency FFS! In Australia nothing! In the absence of mainstream political action, activists like Greenpeace have to step in!

  27. I wonder if there were people that thought Gough Whitlam was a dud leader who was only out to accumulate power for himself.

  28. frednk
    says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 6:00 pm
    Nicko
    I suspect Nath and Rex post out of a Liberal senators office.
    _______________________
    Not gonna lie. I’m a little interested in being Jane Hume’s intern.

  29. nath @ #920 Tuesday, May 14th, 2019 – 5:54 pm

    The ALP partisans know that they have the wrong leader, but what are you going to do? At this stage, party hacks and their stooge supporters have to go all the way with the Shorten dud. He may scrape over the line, I think there is a good chance of a hung Parliament. Either way, with a tiny majority or with a minority government Shorten will look weak and his policies will probably not get through. All in all, a terrible outcome for a change of government election for the ALP.

    I know why you’re worried Nath, Shorten is Labor’s Howard in waiting, albeit more human, compassionate, empathetic, intelligent, genuine and honest. Oh, and progressive. Could be looking at 3 terms?

  30. NE Qld
    says:
    Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 6:08 pm
    Credlin: If Labor win, we will all be turned Transgender.
    ___________________________
    cool.

  31. Will be good to see Shorten reach his third term. The question is how long before Nath is carried off by the guys in white coats?

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