There has been a fair bit of movement in bookmakers’ odds for the election over the last week and a bit, first in favour of the Coalition and then against, with the leaders’ debate on Friday night appearing to provide the catalyst for the change. At the time of the last of these posts, the Coalition was near its peak at $3.30 with Labor at $1.32, but now Labor is in to $1.22 and the Coalition out to $4.30.
The most notable change on the seat markets is that there are now seven seats that are at evens, where there were none last week. As a result, the Liberals are no longer clear favourites in Capricornia and Bass, and Labor no longer are in Dawson, Leichhardt, Braddon, Deakin and Stirling. Most of these were rated very close to begin with, although there have been reasonably substantial movements in Braddon (Labor $1.40 and Liberal $2.75 last week, now $1.90 each), Leichhardt (Labor $1.70 and LNP $2.60 last week, now $1.87 each), Dawson (Labor $1.57 and LNP $2.25 last week, now both $1.87). The Coalition now have the edge in Indi, where they are in from $2.15 to $1.80 with the independent out from $1.77 to $2.00.
Other movements of note: a much tighter race is now anticipated in Liberal-held Robertson, where the Liberals are in from $3.90 to $2.05 and Labor are out from $1.21 to $1.70, and the Country Liberals’ odds have been cut from $6.00 to $3.75 in Lingiari, with Labor out from $1.12 to $1.22. Conversely, there has been movement back to Labor in Solomon, where they are in from $1.50 to $1.30, with the Country Liberals out from $2.45 to $3.25. There has been movement almost across the board to the Coalition in Queensland, leaving Labor still favoured in Bonner, Dickson and Flynn, but by narrower margins.
With seven seats now tied up, and one moving from independent Coalition, Ladbrokes now has Labor clear favourites in 79 seats (down five), the Coalition in 60 (down one), and others in five (down one). As always, you can find the odds listed at the bottom right of each electorate page in the Poll Bludger federal election guide. Another thing you can find is the latest daily instalment of Seat du jour, today dealing with Chisholm, in the post immediately below this one.
‘citizen says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 9:20 pm
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 9:15 pm
P
The only political issue that was spontaneously raised with me during our recent tour of deepest Queensland was Labor’s fiendish plot to foist electric vehicles on already overwrought and oppressed bushies.
It was literally impossible to reason with the people concerned.
They were probably genuinely worried about the extremely long extension leads they would need to carry on their electric vehicle!’
I listened carefully.
They were concerned about:
1. an authoritarian government making them do stuff
2. towing a caravan with a weak electric motor
3. the lack of charging stations out in the boonies
4. the relative costs
All this overlaid with trad city v bush and (a possibly faulty perception on my part) an element of city female oppression of real bush men.
Hello LGH. We already have a de facto state “death tax” in NSW, and I think in other states too. Here’s how it works:
-a state government function, the Public Trustee, kindly offers preparation of wills at no charge. What a great offer!
-the will is duly prepared by the Public Trustee in accordance with the clients wishes. Of course the Public Trustee includes a whole heap of legal stuff in there, about them being the sole executor of the will, etc, etc
-time passes, the person in question passes on, and the Public Trustee executes the will
-guess what! There are clauses in the will which allow the Public Trustee to take a cut of the value of the estate. If the deceased owned a house, their cut will be several tens of thousands of dollars
-to rub salt in the wound, the Public Trustee commission their own valuation of the value of the deceased’s house, which is paid for by the estate. Mysteriously, the valuations always come back as much higher than market value.
I have absolutely no problem with the state taking a cut from deceased estates-provided it is done fairly across the whole community, and targets only those who can afford it. But this hidden death duty via the Public Trustee doesn’t work like that. Those in the know or those who can afford professional estate planning services will avoid the Public Trustee. Those who are caught will be people like my father-a working class man with limited education who would not have known the consequences of accepting a “free” will prepared by the Public Trustee.
My advice to those of you with elderly parents, or who may be of an age where you need to think about your own will-be very careful that the Public Trustee is not the executor of your will! Cheers
So, I wonder what The Daily Telegraph have planned for tomorrow’s front page?
bludgers calling it draw
rw media a shorten win
this is bizarro land
Somewhere in my family tree – I believe around three generations ago – a widow with 12 children married a widower with 12 children and they had 2 more children.
I agree with Mark Kenny on the clean rivers and asbestos examples.
Labor should continue to use those.
Credlin, Bolt and co finish with Shorten needs to go big. Forget talking about the economy. He needs to talk about AGW in a practical sense when it comes to action.
What is going on?
A simple will for an uncomplicated estate can be prepared for a few hundred dollars by any competent solicitor.
Does she mean “shift the prick”, or “change the track”?
(The latter only makes sense to hipsters.)
Confessions @ #1201 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 7:30 pm
Sorry, not Shorten. Scotty.
kirky says:
“Well I’ve got news for King Rupert, my next car will be an electric car (probably over the next 4-5 years).”
They make decent environmental sense if you have a power grid that supplies them with renewable energy. They don’t make financial sense and likely won’t for at least the next 4-5 years.
Governments should hold off incentives within the space until global prices are down and quality up, at which point dollars invested, or a per dollar impost on the economy will deliver more bang for the buck. Remember here too, when we are talking about environmental investment more bank for the buck means more net GHG’s saved (in the medium term) too.
Government A wishes to place a $200m subsidy on home batteries. At time of purchase this part-funds 20,000 batteries, almost all purchased by reasonably well-off people, who could afford them without subsidy, and many of whom would have purchased without subsidy if there was none.
Government B holds off for 5 years and still invests $200m, now this subsidy part-funds 80,000 batteries including for purchasers much further down the wealth/income scale.
The government, tax payers and the environment all get a greater win from government B.
If the tech curve was flatter a decent argument could be made against this, but it isn’t…
Cat
So, I wonder what The Daily Telegraph have planned for tomorrow’s front page?
I figure they’ve dug up dirt on Bill’s dad – today was just a trial run!
FS
Yes. If you cannot afford that don’t make a will. No family will fight if you are that poor. 🙂
Mark Kenny just said the government message on child care amounts to the government saying you never had it so good.
LGH
‘Government B holds off for 5 years and still invests $200m, now this subsidy funds 80,000 batteries including for purchasers much further down the wealth/income scale.
The government, tax payers and the environment all get a greater win from government B.’
The Coalition has been Government B for the last 30 years. But the Coalition is worse than this Government B. The Coalition Fucking Government B has spent 30 years trying to either stop the clock or to wind it back to Stephenson’s Rocket.
“So, I wonder what The Daily Telegraph have planned for tomorrow’s front page?”
Whatever it is, it should be worth a couple of more percentage points the Bill.
Morrison owns three Governments that have not just failed on climate policy but actively interfered to stall progress.
What can he say?
It’s official.
Sky After Dark has tossed in the towel.
‘J341983 says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 9:35 pm
Morrison owns three Governments that have not just failed on climate policy but actively interfered to stall progress.
What can he say?’
The killer fact for the Coalition is that emissions are higher now than they were when Abbott became PM. It is a simple fact and is absolutely immune to what BB correctly identified as Morrison’s habitual wall of sound gish gallop of meaningless numbers.
Shorten deployed the growth in emissions with deadly effect tonight.
Parramatta Moderate
Good to know and thanks for the input. I had been vaguely aware of this but assumed the amounts usually did not amount to much? A few thousand impost or $10k is pretty minor but if they extend far upwards from this that is pretty lousy. Again this is typical of how public policy tends to fall on the community – the wealthy quickly clue in to the lurks and perks, the middle is left bamboozled and ends up getting hit with massive tax, and the poor are not really affected as they never managed to acquire anyway.
My firm belief is this country hits the upper middle too hard (or at least at the maximum and still fair amount) while letting the very rich escape.. my fears the exact same thing would happen with estate taxes and the precedent is very much set!
“”boerwar….. Somewhere in my family tree – I believe around three generations ago – a widow with 12 children married a widower with 12 children and they had 2 more children.””
Now you know why God invented the TV
Good night all. Sweet dreams.
J341983 @ #1211 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 7:35 pm
Shorten made the point that GHGEs are now higher than they were when he was Abbott’s alternative PM. So not much.
“Blobbit just because you don’t see the reason for something this does not entitle you to organise for its theft.”
Indeed. It’s pretty well established that to run a society, some level of taxation is required. Deciding to call some forms of taxation “theft” is a pointless rhetorical device. Death duties have the appeal (to me) that they’re fair in terms of not penalising the recipient of the income on their effort.
Anyway, as I’m not really inclined to argue for fun with someone who can seriously advocate eugenics, I’ll exercise my right to free speech and terminate this from my side.
Must be big money gone on at the TAB – ALP in to $1.15
Re Patricia Karvelas – yes she’s a strong interviewer but otherwise I find much of her political analysis pretty unsophisticated. She was saying to Fran Kelly on the Party Room podcast last week that she gave the decision about who to vote for to someone else (maybe her husband/partner), because she found it “too hard to decide”. That sounded either disingenuous or evidence of pretty shallow values and insight on her part. I also remember when Lucien Aye got the boot, that Fran Kelly made a comment to the effect that Scomo would face a major challenge in the coming by-election in Wentworth. PK responded by saying – oh no, Scott Morrison is relishing the thought of a by-election campaign- simply because ScoMo had said something to that effect in his press conference. Well he would say that, wouldn’t he….and his confidence was sadly misplaced. PK seemed to be proceeding on the basis that because ScoMo had said something it had to be true.
“bludgers calling it draw
rw media a shorten win
this is bizarro land”
I think it was a draw in the sense that it wasn’t going to change anyones mind, and was probably going to have no net effect. At least, that was the sense that I got.
The front page of the Daily Telegraph tomorrow is going to be about the Royal Baby.
I get the feeling some private polling is leaking out somewhere.
pithicus
I saw a couple of tweets about polling being done in New England.
A bit of a surprise. I would have thought New England wasn’t marginal
guytaur @ #1228 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 9:43 pm
Let’s see what they say about his mother.
guytaur,
Is that a hunch re the royal baby in the telegraph tomorrow ?
Cheers.
Can anyone confirm my recollection of this exchange:
Morrison talking up govts/his achievements and says we’ve brought the budget back into surplus.
Sabra Lane pulls him up and says no, you haven’t, it’s a projected surplus.
Morrison fibs and says yes, that’s what I said.
Audience laughs because they aren’t stupid and heard what he said.
doyley
Yeah that’s a hunch. Not knowledge. Sorry I didn’t make that clear b
Charles
Yes in fact. If Labor is smart they will be rushing the Back to the Future memes out on that one.
We are back in surplus next year.
Thanks LGH. In my father’s case he owned a home in the Bankstown area, plus had some residual superannuation-the Public Trustee took over $30K as their cut from what would be a fairly modest estate compared to many. My anger is not with the principle that tax should be applied to an estate, that’s fair enough, it’s with the random nature of this process, and the likelihood that those who can most afford to bear such a tax will avoid it-just like a lot of other taxes….
I’m skimming through the blog, and am at about Midday.
Its seems to me that this FU to Murdoch might be the equivalent of Latham’s handshake in 2994, except good for Labor, and not the other way. There’s no need for Labor attack ads against the Libs!! just show what shits their paymasters are, Go Bill!! and a two finger gesture to Nath in particular!
Another interesting thing about this evening’s debate is that Mr Shorten mentioned his previous union ties, but Mr Morrison hardly mentioned unions. I guess the Liberals have figured out that the “union horror” story is one that really only appeals to the sorts of people who thought that Captain GetUp was a great idea.
Could some kind PBer kindly advise how do I paste an image?
Charles @ #1227 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 7:49 pm
It happened that way, except the audience was chosen by both parties 50-50, so the people who laughed at Scotty were Labor partisans so not worth a hill of beans at the end of the day.
In breaking news.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/meghan-markle-prince-harry-baby-boy-photos-114136472.html?.tsrc=notification-brknews
Blobbit says:
“Anyway, as I’m not really inclined to argue for fun with someone who can seriously advocate eugenics, I’ll exercise my right to free speech and terminate this from my side.”
This is how hysterical the left and mainstream are at normal healthy progress for society.
I did not argue for locking up the poor, sterilisation or anything unwholesome.
I articulated that with births below a sustainable level, having more of them is a good, and if you can encourage more of them from societies highest iQ members, without making any impost on the rest or inhibiting their own rights, then there is a net good for society.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289615001221
Science journal, drop in IQ in a Western Nation, biological cause.
The consequences for refusing to adopt “positive” practices with regards to genetics is very real bad consequences for the whole society. Running away from this truth just causes more suffering.
Does a man and woman that raise 4 good citizens and pays their taxes throughout their life contribute something meaningful to society? Yes. All other things being equal more than the family with one child? Yes. And I am not even talking about rewarding them, just reducing one penalty that some would apply!
The modern left are entirely suicidal in their actions and desired policy mix. Some of us would help society survive and not face the total ruin such a policy mix would bring to it.
We’ve been down the path in too many nations, and too many times to support ignorantly placing our heads in the sand. The left are so afraid of what is real, because it makes inappropriate their entire world-view.
A draw my arse. As Albo said yesterday, Bill creamed him. And he creamed him again tonight.
I can understand why some faithful on here might want to talk it down, but seriously, whilst Morrison wasn’t terrible, and Shorten did not have it all his own way, the three debates highlighted a gulf in debating skill, content, knowledge, temperament, relatability, warmth, persuasion, wit and empathy. He sliced and diced, weaved his fairness narrative into everything he said, looked more relaxed and confident with each debate and turned perceived weaknesses into strengths.
That’s my view.
GG
Is it too late to delete your post?
Well we can all now see the royal baby looks like a baby.
Joyce’s New England support plummets: poll
The scandal surrounding the Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce’s extra-marital affair has seen a decline in support in his rural New South Wales electorate of New England. A Fairfax-Reachtel poll says Mr Joyce’s primary vote has fallen from 65 per cent at the by-election on December 2 to just 43 per cent on Tuesday night – a drop of 22 points and below the 52.3 per cent he won to claim the seat at the 2016 election.
Sceptic @ #1243 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 10:02 pm
Is it too late for you to make sense?
But will Joyce win the seat?
Well said Charles.
And as for your earlier question re budget surplus, Morrison claimed he said “next year” when pulled up by Lane, but I don’t think he did at all. That’s why the audience laughed.
Why, sceptic?
Some people might have some interest, even if it is not you or I.