Odds and sods: week four

Labor firms in its favouritism on the question of party to form government, but the movement is mostly the other way in individual seat markets.

There has been a fair bit of movement in bookmakers’ odds for the election over the last week and a bit, first in favour of the Coalition and then against, with the leaders’ debate on Friday night appearing to provide the catalyst for the change. At the time of the last of these posts, the Coalition was near its peak at $3.30 with Labor at $1.32, but now Labor is in to $1.22 and the Coalition out to $4.30.

The most notable change on the seat markets is that there are now seven seats that are at evens, where there were none last week. As a result, the Liberals are no longer clear favourites in Capricornia and Bass, and Labor no longer are in Dawson, Leichhardt, Braddon, Deakin and Stirling. Most of these were rated very close to begin with, although there have been reasonably substantial movements in Braddon (Labor $1.40 and Liberal $2.75 last week, now $1.90 each), Leichhardt (Labor $1.70 and LNP $2.60 last week, now $1.87 each), Dawson (Labor $1.57 and LNP $2.25 last week, now both $1.87). The Coalition now have the edge in Indi, where they are in from $2.15 to $1.80 with the independent out from $1.77 to $2.00.

Other movements of note: a much tighter race is now anticipated in Liberal-held Robertson, where the Liberals are in from $3.90 to $2.05 and Labor are out from $1.21 to $1.70, and the Country Liberals’ odds have been cut from $6.00 to $3.75 in Lingiari, with Labor out from $1.12 to $1.22. Conversely, there has been movement back to Labor in Solomon, where they are in from $1.50 to $1.30, with the Country Liberals out from $2.45 to $3.25. There has been movement almost across the board to the Coalition in Queensland, leaving Labor still favoured in Bonner, Dickson and Flynn, but by narrower margins.

With seven seats now tied up, and one moving from independent Coalition, Ladbrokes now has Labor clear favourites in 79 seats (down five), the Coalition in 60 (down one), and others in five (down one). As always, you can find the odds listed at the bottom right of each electorate page in the Poll Bludger federal election guide. Another thing you can find is the latest daily instalment of Seat du jour, today dealing with Chisholm, in the post immediately below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Odds and sods: week four”

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  1. Parramatta Moderate

    Yes, had my own experiences with the arbitrariness of the tax system and how it can effect, say a family on two $100k incomes vs one $200k income, alternatively working for a year then taking a year off for a few years timing the income $200k $0 $200k $0 vs $100k, $100k, $100k, $100k.

    All meaningfully different in tax paid despite the same earnings, and the same family over the period. You’ve opened my eye that public trustee taxes/impost can go so high.
    We should as a society be able to do so much better than this.

    Government regulations today are just a spaghetti bowl.

  2. Charles

    I credited the ABC via Barrie Cassidy calling it a draw as there was no audience to quote as a choice was a return of the unbiased ABC.

    Then he said so that’s two wins and a draw for Labor in the debates.

    I disagree as they were talking Labor policies. Greg Jericho approvingly retweeting a Labor graph on emissions. Stuff like that will change votes as it makes its way through social media.

    Facts do count.
    As we have been saying here for some time. Low wage growth lived experience beats the spin about a “strong economy” every day.

  3. Interesting that Bill was talking up his union background. Given that concerns about insecure employment and cost of living issues at the moment, not sure the union scare campaigns gonna work as well for LNP this time.

  4. Elizabeth Warren

    There are three inescapable facts from the Mueller report that Mitch McConnell can’t hide:
    1. A foreign government attacked our elections in order to help Donald Trump.
    2. Trump welcomed that help.
    3. Trump tried to obstruct the investigation into his actions.

  5. Boerwar

    Both sides of government have been poor for the duration of my life in my opinion. Both have failed the nation.

    The reality also is that they are in lockstep on the issues that permanently harm Australia and do serious damage, but differ in the minutia where things move 10% up or down for people A, or people B, for minor period X, then return.

    Note I’d not rate the Greens any better either, they’d more likely turbocharge the above than anything else.

    A true “people’s parliament” where true representatives of the people made or decided on policy would be a significant improvement and I consider that we do not have it nothing short of tyranny.] & treason against the people.

  6. Blobit what happened tonight was a win to Shorten for several reasons.

    Morrison agreed to the debate because he’s probably going to lose the election and he knows it. He lost the other two debates and he wanted a chance to score. He’s also stupid enough to believe in himself enough to do that.

    Morrison loses because if nothing else it keeps the media talking about things he’d rather not talk about. He loses because the media have finally realised that they’ve underestimated Shorten. Morrison loses because it just sucks more of his time and energy and he’s a one man band.

  7. All good guytaur. You could see from the look on Cassidy’s face that he knew who won. He was just doing ‘balance’ or ‘neutrality’ or whatever the hell the ABC call it. Glad to see he corrected the Liberal muppet Jennett, who bizarrely repeated the lie that Shorten won the first debate ‘narrowly’. Cassidy said, correctly, that the Perth audience gave it to Shorten ‘by a wide margin’ (25-12). For some reason the ABC has been repeating this nonsense all day.

  8. Confessions ‘There is no sign the Liberal brains trust have put together a real ‘knock out’ strategy to reset the agenda.’

    I’m still waiting for a boat to arrive.

  9. Charles says:
    “There are three inescapable facts from the Mueller report that Mitch McConnell can’t hide:
    1. A foreign government attacked our elections in order to help Donald Trump.
    2. Trump welcomed that help.
    3. Trump tried to obstruct the investigation into his actions.”

    In lieu of AIPAC’s involvement in US politics for the last 5 decades any categorisation of Trump as being beyond the pale on the issue is pure hypocrisy.

    Israel’s influence is at least 100 fold Russia’s impact on USA.

    Want to get foreign interference out of the USA? You’d have to start with Israel and your second port of call would have to be Saudi Arabia, third China or a nation like the UK… well done the list with a minuscule relative amount of impact would be Russia.

    And where it is Russia you’ll find just as much evidence of collusion on the Democratic side.

  10. Cud Chewer. Spot on. Morrison was talking himself up before the debates and once again, Shorten was underestimated.

    Leading up to the debates, some of the press, chasing their feverish narrative that Shorten was ‘ hiding from scrutiny’ and ‘didn’t want a third debate’, he cooly quips: “ Whoaa, hold on a sec, lets see how the other fellow goes in the first two before he decides if he wants a third.” Bill knew he had his measure.

    A journo asked Shorten this morning, or yesterday how he was feeling about the third debate, and he replied (wtte), “I’m feeling pretty good about it, check the scoreboard.”

    The day after the first debate I noticed that Morrison looked a bit rattled and had lost some of his arrogance. Ego can’t deal.

  11. I’m pretty sure the baby will be on the front pages of newspapers tomorrow (DT included).

    ‘Just a dream’: Proud Harry and Meghan show off Baby Sussex to the world
    The new royal baby
    Prince Harry carried the sleeping boy into the grand St George’s Hall at Windsor Castle with the Duchess of Sussex on his arm, on the way to visit the Queen.
    25 minutes ago by Nick Miller
    (SMH online headline)

  12. PeeBee

    Don’t even think that’ll work now. They’ve had six years, it’ll be on their watch etc etc

    They’re perceived negatively for the most part, and any attempt to spin it their way wouldn’t work.

    It’s done. Barring (heaven forbid) an attack here, it’s done and dusted.

    Home and hosed.

  13. Cud Chewer says:
    “True representatives of the people? Oh.. you mean…”

    It is funny when people at point D look down at people at point F. Well it would be if it wasn’t sad and the people looking down didn’t realise how short and nasty they appear to people A through C.

    If you want to propagandise people into acting against their best interests you do not target people F (85~95 IQ), they mostly go on gut & tradition so will be inflexible to change.
    You focus on people D (100~125 IQ even some a little higher), and you set some incentives that mean they get to feel ‘morally superior and higher’ if they parrot your bulls*t ideologies, as they are not smart enough to see through it, but dumb enough to swallow the rhetoric and conceited enough to feel their ‘rewards’ are deserved.

    We need the general public to balance out the propagandised that think they are above them and high enough to think they have sense (you).

  14. Observations from pre-poll are it has been, at worst, 50-50 for Labor where I’ve been (of those taking HTVs). Several less than complimentary comments to Liberal volunteers about Morrison and negative signage. Voters across a range of demographics.

  15. The reason the general public don’t deliver us good governments and policies is not because they do not have good instinct for what an individual good policy is…

    ..it is because they are given a choice between sh*t sandwich A or sh*t sandwich B, made up of 2~3 good policies, and 4~5 neural policies and 6~7 poor policies and a tonne of propaganda to count out any other options.

    It is no wonder we end up stuck with all the poor ones. Blame rests on those who propagandise, and goose the demographics to reduce cohesion.. for it is only a cohesive society that can ever sustainably address its inequities.

  16. Well we can all now see the royal baby looks like a baby.

    Don’t worry, the media will string out giving Baby WhogivesaSussex at least a couple of weeks.

  17. A few titbits from Sportsbet, individual seat markets:
    Liberal odds blowing out in Chisholm, Reid and Hasluck(does that explain why Morrison while he was in WA didn’t campaign with Ken Wyatt?). Labor favourites in Stirling too, another seat nobody has talked about lately.

  18. Wanna learn who really won? Obviously you need to consult the experts!

    Who won tonight’s debate?
    Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten faced off in the final debate before the election. Our experts deliver their verdict.

  19. pithicus says:
    Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 9:44 pm
    I get the feeling some private polling is leaking out somewhere.

    I have no doubt at all about that. This is the splurge of smart money I spoke about a few days ago.

    The writing is well and truly on the wall now. Labor looks home and hosed. Just sit back and enjoy the ride.

  20. Ryan Knight #ImpeachTrump

    Robert Mueller revealed in his report that Russia interfered in our election in “sweeping and systematic fashion” to help Trump and hurt Hillary. The fact that @realDonaldTrump called Putin and dismissed all of this as a “Russian hoax” proves Trump is actively betraying America.

  21. Imagine being so influential over American politics you are able to demand a $38billion annual payment and hundreds of billions of dollars of military subservience to your perceived needs, all whilst using $5b of that $38 billion annual payment during election periods to lobby politicians, demand their loyalty and force a renewal of the parasitic relationship. Effectively making the victim fund its continued victimisation.

    Russia? No, Israel.
    Want to clean up American politics start there. We might get less wars. (We will).
    Russia as always is a smokescreen for the activity of others.

  22. “Almost all property developers want to show a loss for tax purposes”

    The telling words by the President of the USA are “for tax purposes”

    And that is where the problem is

    Tax is discretionary – because you can act for tax purposes (and obviously not to pay)

    Tax legislation is always the laggard reacting to the increasing and evolving schemes promoted by the likes of Accounting Practices

    But underpinning this is intent – the intent to manipulate for personal advantage and a process which is unavailable to the very great majority of our citizens

    The tax system has to be made fair and equatable

    As does the payment system, reflecting the legislation Centrelink is governed by

    The tax system is the horse

    The payments system is the cart

    So back to where we started “making losses for tax purposes”

    What fine examples for society at large

    What a fine moral compass this demographic has

  23. Charles my recollection is that Morrison was challenged in his assertion that he had delivered a surplus to which he received a laugh on the lamely delivered line “Well I’ve delivered a surplus next year”

    It was the perfect encapsulation of the emperor’s new clothes moment given that the dubious “back in black” pablum had been given so little scrutiny by the media

  24. Confessions

    Yes, understood that the audience tonight was 50/50. My point was that Morrison lied, and then lied about lying. And yes, some Labor partisans laughed because they knew that had just occurred.

  25. Rossmcg
    One of the hardest things in my life was sitting with our youngest, writing his Will. We had a short few months from diagnosis but the legal bits and pierces had to be done. It seemed so callous at the time but we wanted everything tied up tightly for his 16yr old son.
    It was worth the agony .

    I’ve made sure the other 2 have signed Wills but hopefully I won’t be around to do the Probate. Too many tears.

  26. Jesus wept – Eugenics, the danger of “Israel”.

    I am deeply sorry for your children and hope they learn to stop listening to your poison sooner rather than later.

  27. J341983 says:
    “Jesus wept – Eugenics, the danger of “Israel”. I am deeply sorry for your children and hope they learn to stop listening to poison sooner rather than later.”

    It would appear the truthful and factual placement of Israel being 100 fold more influential on American politics than Russia has disturbed you.

    Is there something about a people’s society being healthy and free from outside molestation and abuse that upsets you? I’d think that is exactly what you would wish for Israel and I’d not argue.

    Funny how the people that most work for inequality hide behind a screen of equality. A bit like the Russia hullabaloo.. look over there, not here!

    No-one with deeper sense is convinced.

    My children will grow up with good sense, in the world of the deeply propagandised and malicious that guarantees them a hard life, but is the only path to a good future for all humanity rather than just selected groups.

  28. guytaur

    No, no, no. He gave an excellent answer on Folau. And his comment that he doesn’t believe gay people will burn in hell would have resonated strongly.

  29. “The writing is well and truly on the wall now. Labor looks home and hosed. Just sit back and enjoy the ride.”

    It’s way too early to get the hose out.

  30. Evan, i would love to see Stirling change hands but would be surprised if it did. Having worked the last few campaigns there, Such a tough electorate for labor now.

  31. Hi William,

    I hope this comment is OK. The article linked to by LGH is particularly bad science, and a case where an apparently statistically valid result is complete nonsense because of the underlying assumptions.

    Elsevier used to print quality science journals, but I have been shocked to see some physics that belongs in News of the World published in an Elsevier Science Direct journal about 4 months ago – something about aliens I think. We all got a good laugh out of the article, but I am sorry to see a reputable publisher going down this dangerous path.

  32. Hear hear WB!
    LGH – Surely there is a political philosophy blog somewhere on the interwebs where you can peddle this tripe. Stop consuming William’s bandwidth with your ravings. Plus i am getting rsi from having to scroll through so much crap. Have some respect for the owner of the blog and stop being so selfish.

  33. “Murdoch might be the equivalent of Latham’s handshake in 2994”

    Murdoch couldn’t possibly still be around in 2994, could he!? Though he does look a bit Dorian Grey (picture thereof)

  34. Douglas and Milko

    “The article linked to by LGH is particularly bad science”

    I can link Nobel Prize Winners in genetics that make the same argument.. I assume you are more qualified than them? Or perhaps it is more genuine to say there is science you’d rather not be done, and truthful conclusions you’d rather not be reached because of your own political ideology.

  35. “Blobit what happened tonight was a win to Shorten for several reasons.”

    I don’t disagree. I just meant that it seemed from the chatter that is was a draw as in the end it was all a bit meh.

    TBH I didn’t watch it. I find it much less infuriating just to follow it on the Guardian’s blog.

    I’d like to see Amy as the moderator. She would put up with their crap.

  36. Mark Peasley

    Scott Morrison says on the ABC that the LNP have already passed legislation to deal with the UN’s warning of 1000000 species facing extinction.

    What legislation could that possibly be?

  37. Douglas and Milko

    For the research to be wrong this statement would be true:
    Genetics is unrelated to IQ. Or genetics is not related to ancestry.

    Now the second is obviously false. And for the first to be true all the IQ twin studies where twins were separated at birth, and raised in different environments with different families wouldn’t deliver remarkably similar results between the children.

    Similarly all the adoption studies where children are raised in the same environment, but have different genetic sets would be remarkably similar in IQ but this is not so.

    No IQ is significantly genetically influenced and as genes are inherited it is linked to ancestry.
    This may be an inconvenient truth but it is so.
    This does not mean any person is deserving of any less in human dignity or respect.
    I specified no policy to treat people different based on IQ, and in fact on another post where a person took an elitist view of the public’s rights I responded that I backed the whole to deal with issues equally rather than a privileged set.

    I am not here in immorality, I am here in truth, just reasonable and brave enough to follow truth where it leads rather than where propaganda & reward directs it to.

    Public policies that guide to improving the overall level in IQ of society without penalising people is very different to one that allows policy to deliver a deceasing IQ in society and one that puts in place policies to harm those with higher IQ’s or attack them with greater incidence! Like inheritance taxes!

    IQ has a large inherited component.
    Higher IQ linked to both income and wealth with high correlation.
    Size of inheritance thus highly correlated with IQ.
    Thus incidence and size of inheritance tax highly correlated to IQ.
    Hence an inheritance tax is effectively a tax on higher IQ families.
    Hence it is dysgenic.
    Hence allowing a path to reducing the incidence of the tax via the creation of more high IQ people helps lift society overall.
    Not paying high IQ people to have kids, just stopping you from delivering them no means bar leaving the country (also dysgenic) to stop you taking their kids rightful inheritance!

    Someone can ban me if they like – but you guys sorely need more truth in your life, it might give you some courage to sup from something other than mainstream propaganda.

    And yeah there would have to be more said for me to make the above watertight but none of us want to see 30 pages do they.

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