Odds and sods: week four

Labor firms in its favouritism on the question of party to form government, but the movement is mostly the other way in individual seat markets.

There has been a fair bit of movement in bookmakers’ odds for the election over the last week and a bit, first in favour of the Coalition and then against, with the leaders’ debate on Friday night appearing to provide the catalyst for the change. At the time of the last of these posts, the Coalition was near its peak at $3.30 with Labor at $1.32, but now Labor is in to $1.22 and the Coalition out to $4.30.

The most notable change on the seat markets is that there are now seven seats that are at evens, where there were none last week. As a result, the Liberals are no longer clear favourites in Capricornia and Bass, and Labor no longer are in Dawson, Leichhardt, Braddon, Deakin and Stirling. Most of these were rated very close to begin with, although there have been reasonably substantial movements in Braddon (Labor $1.40 and Liberal $2.75 last week, now $1.90 each), Leichhardt (Labor $1.70 and LNP $2.60 last week, now $1.87 each), Dawson (Labor $1.57 and LNP $2.25 last week, now both $1.87). The Coalition now have the edge in Indi, where they are in from $2.15 to $1.80 with the independent out from $1.77 to $2.00.

Other movements of note: a much tighter race is now anticipated in Liberal-held Robertson, where the Liberals are in from $3.90 to $2.05 and Labor are out from $1.21 to $1.70, and the Country Liberals’ odds have been cut from $6.00 to $3.75 in Lingiari, with Labor out from $1.12 to $1.22. Conversely, there has been movement back to Labor in Solomon, where they are in from $1.50 to $1.30, with the Country Liberals out from $2.45 to $3.25. There has been movement almost across the board to the Coalition in Queensland, leaving Labor still favoured in Bonner, Dickson and Flynn, but by narrower margins.

With seven seats now tied up, and one moving from independent Coalition, Ladbrokes now has Labor clear favourites in 79 seats (down five), the Coalition in 60 (down one), and others in five (down one). As always, you can find the odds listed at the bottom right of each electorate page in the Poll Bludger federal election guide. Another thing you can find is the latest daily instalment of Seat du jour, today dealing with Chisholm, in the post immediately below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Odds and sods: week four”

Comments Page 13 of 27
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  3. How about Mallee?
    I cannot get any info about the prospects of independents.
    I would assume the nat would be favourite.

  4. From the smh article: “My parents sent me to a rich school,” he said on Wednesday. “But we were not rich. We were not poor. We were like hundreds of thousands of other families. My family spent all their spare cash on educating [his twin brother] Robert and I.”

    so Xavier is going to be happy they’ve got a PM

    but a bit mortified that the says “educating Robert and I”.

    they were big on sports and science

  5. Did you listen to what Birmingham said Rex? There is a line and the coalition keeps crossing – shaking his hand would have rewarded that bad behaviour.

    Good on her.

  6. jenauthor @ #602 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 4:10 pm

    Did you listen to what Birmingham said Rex? There is a line and the coalition keeps crossing – shaking his hand would have rewarded that bad behaviour.

    Good on her.

    The Libs talk crap almost 100% of the time. We all know that.

    No need for Wong to throw a teenage tantrum like that though.

  7. We know Simon Birmingham is a hypocrite for raising former Labor politicians and their links to China, when the Liberal party has exactly the same links.
    So it was a cheap shot.

  8. Shorten was 100% authentic today, his best moment by far of the campaign! If the Liberal dirt unit had any hand in prompting the Daily Telegraph to run that front page story today, then it was a spectacular own goal for them.

  9. So long as people treat politics as fluff, and they let them get away with talking shit, the electorate will not respect politicians and our our political system.

    It is time politicians stand up for integrity or our democracy will never recover.

  10. “No need for Wong to throw a teenage tantrum like that though.”…. Rejecting crap is a teenage tantrum?…. I guess that you expect Shorten to shake hands with Rupert after what the Daily Telegraph published about his mother….

  12. “As an individual it probably doesn’t. However, the front benches of both sides have increasingly become the preserve of alumni from elite private schools. Not healthy in my book.”

    Fair enough. TBH, I agree to some extent. This latest round of trawling through people’s online history won’t help much.

  15. I trust this stuff about Shorten and his mother run by the Murdoch press will be like the Kevin Rudd going to the strip Club story in ‘07. Only serves to humanize a politician who most people don’t know (I personally know Bill well – contrary to Nath’s comments he is the real deal).

    I hope this story backfires spectacularly in the dirty grubs faces.

  16. ctrl-C from the Guardian:

    “Ladbrokes has announced it has taken its single biggest wager in history – $1,000,000 for Labor to win the election, at $1.23 odds.”

    23% ROI in ten days is pretty good.

    “The previous biggest political bet struck with Ladbrokes Australia (which entered the local market in 2013) was $250,000 on the Coalition to win the last Federal Election.

    The biggest bets on the 2019 election, prior to today’s million dollar wager, were $15,000 on the Coalition at $4 on April 23 and $10,000 at $1.53 on Labor back in August last year.”

  17. Alpo @ #610 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 4:17 pm

    “No need for Wong to throw a teenage tantrum like that though.”…. Rejecting crap is a teenage tantrum?…. I guess that you expect Shorten to shake hands with Rupert after what the Daily Telegraph published about his mother….

    I expect Shorten to not be in the presence of Rupert.

  18. jenauthor @ #609 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 4:16 pm

    So long as people treat politics as fluff, and they let them get away with talking shit, the electorate will not respect politicians and our our political system.

    It is time politicians stand up for integrity or our democracy will never recover.

    Integrity.

    That would be calling out torture of asylum seekers instead of being mute.

    That would setting a date for ending thermal coal exports.

    That would announcing a Newstart increase for the starving and destitute.

  19. Quoll @ #570 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 3:29 pm

    …In some attempt at transparency by The Guardian, anyone can inflict further self-torture by seeing what is being said and done on FB in various names

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2019/may/01/australian-election-campaign-database-of-political-facebook-advertising

    Thanks. It’s a start, however weak.

    I have a question for any FB techs so inclined. Are there any 3rd party automated tools for tracking FB ads? Is possible to determine how often an ad is watched by unique individuals and their associated demographics. I’m sure FB has those tools, but would a 3rd party have them or the ability to create them?

    And related, perhaps FB could be pressured into allowing independent orgs to manage those sorts of transparency tools as a condition of operating in Australia.

  20. Some pretty wishy washy stuff about Morrison’s dear old mum here today. As usual the right kicks the left in the groin and the left wants to apologise for getting their boot dirty.

    The Tories are happy to drag shorten’s mum into it – how about this: whatever her species, it is reasonable to question how a parent could raise a child with the ‘values’ of Morrison.

  21. On the Shorten’s Mum story, first off, it’s not exactly a secret that she became a barrister later in life. I heard about it at some point in the last few weeks, although I’m not sure where (I’m pretty sure not PB), so it’s hardly something he’d have been actively hiding. So the Daily Telmecrap sank so low with something that wasn’t even more than the most tenuous story. A pretty feeble point on which to go the nuclear option. Pathetic bastards. And the resulting widespread outrage and negative comment suggests that it was a serious misjudgment.

    As for it’s likely effect on votes, I doubt it will result in much of a direct movement of primary votes from LNP to Labor. The LNP’s rusted-ons are shameless enough to brazen it out. However, where I can see it making a difference is preferences. The cliched tradie/biker/bogan who love their mums and for whom, by extension, all mums are sacred, demographic does exist. That (possibly quite high) percentage of it likely to vote ON/UAP/[insert populist right party of choice] may quite conceivably preference Labor over the Libs as a result. Maybe enough to make a difference in a tight election.

  22. what did Birmingham say that provoked that reaction?
    he is a IPA bottom feeder so would not surprise if it was directed at Penny Wong

  23. Barney

    The waves were enormous but most of all I remember the wind. My grandfather dragged my brother and I out of bed saying itwould be an historic moment we shouldn’t miss. i’d forgotten that moment til AndrewE reminded me.

    I was an inaugural student atBrighton. Unley High in 1st yr. Brighton 2-4th yr which was Matric then. I left in ’54. The grounds were lovely then with lots of beautiful gums and a few witchetty grubs we tried. Ugh!

  27. Late Riser @ #617 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 4:28 pm

    I have a question for any FB techs so inclined. Are there any 3rd party automated tools for tracking FB ads? Is possible to determine how often an ad is watched by unique individuals and their associated demographics. I’m sure FB has those tools, but would a 3rd party have them or the ability to create them?

    The right sort of third-party could (and probably does).

    For instance if you make a browser and can get lots of people using it, you’ll be able to get a pretty good view of who is seeing what Facebook ad (should you decide you want to). Or if you have a browser extension that lots of people use to block ads (or whatever else), you’d be in a position to scrape the same data.

    However if the people who make those things have built that sort of tool, it’s not going to be publicly available and it will only be able to look at a partial subset of the data and make inferences about the whole. Though if your userbase is in the millions, the inferences you can make should be pretty solid.

  28. Private school fees have risen exponentially compared to wages over the last 10 years.
    Shorten is 50. Therefore he would have been in attendance at that school 38 years ago. Whilst it wasn’t cheap, it is not as expensive as it is now.

  30. puffytmd @ #537 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 3:08 pm

    I am using a different laptop. Can I please have the links the PB plugin for Chrome.

    Chrome Extension
    https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/pb-comments-plugin/onjomgpfepfmffelldjhpapljdfiodpi
    Firefox Plugin
    https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin

    Sorry. I have been reading a whodunit and just now got back to PB.

    Good luck. 😎

    Edit – I see that Late Riser already responded.

  31. pithicus @ #477 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 2:22 pm

    million bucks sheesh.
    would have thought this person would wait till closer to election.
    This could indicate that he or she expects the odds to shift to labor soon. This bet alone should move the markets.

    It would tie in if it is Malcolm. I ‘m expecting a damaging tweet or three from Monday on…

  32. So now a Greens candidate is plank-walking over some v ropey social media comments.

    My memory might be faulty, but last week I do not recall too many “there but for the grace of god…..” comments from Greens supporters on this site.

    Any of them care to make an argument that it’s qualitatively distinguishable from the Liberal and Labor cases?

  34. @Rex doesn’t understand the situation because he is greenie.

    There for his party doesn’t get attacked every day of the week.

  35. Zoidlord @ #634 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 4:13 pm

    @Rex doesn’t understand the situation because he is greenie.

    There for his party doesn’t get attacked every day of the week.

    The irony of this statement is beyond rational assessment.

    The Greens get smashed 100 times a day here and 100 times a day in the national media. They would be the MOST attacked party in Australian politics IMHO.

  38. For the first time since the departure of six times Walkley Award winner Kerry O’Brien, I feel inordinately proud of an ABC journalist, Patricia Karvelas, who today propounded a lucid and insightful analysis of Bill Shorten’s response to Murdoch minion Anne Calder’s scumbaggery in the Telegraph. Karvelas is light years beyond such overpaid mediocrities as Trioli, Rowland and Crabb.

    I concur with Karvelas that it appears to be a defining moment in Bill Shorten’s career. Even though this won’t impact the outcome of the election, it might generate higher support for a PM Shorten’s drive for greater equality of opportunities if Labor wins.

  39. Victoria @ #627 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 4:37 pm

    Private school fees have risen exponentially compared to wages over the last 10 years.
    Shorten is 50. Therefore he would have been in attendance at that school 38 years ago. Whilst it wasn’t cheap, it is not as expensive as it is now.

    But that’s the sleazy trick nath likes to pull, he quotes the fees in today’s dollars.

  40. I would hazard a guess Pats Karvelas didn’t come from a well-to-do family either and had to work very hard, plus be very talented, to get where she is today.

  42. c@t

    nath is a legend in his or her own lunchtime. His comments re Trump this morning were too silly and made me laugh. At least good for something

  47. a r @ #625 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 4:36 pm

    Late Riser @ #617 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 4:28 pm

    Are there any 3rd party automated tools for tracking FB ads? Is possible to determine how often an ad is watched by unique individuals and their associated demographics. I’m sure FB has those tools, but would a 3rd party have them or the ability to create them?

    The right sort of third-party could (and probably does).

    For instance if you make a browser and can get lots of people using it, you’ll be able to get a pretty good view of who is seeing what Facebook ad (should you decide you want to). Or if you have a browser extension that lots of people use to block ads (or whatever else), you’d be in a position to scrape the same data.

    Thanks a r. FB doesn’t expose an interface that would allow this analysis to trusted 3rd parties I suppose? I’m thinking of government level 3rd parties. The value to FB would be shedding cost and risk. The value to any government would be transparency and control. (Thinking out loud…)

  48. Prof. Higgins

    She gets bonus points for being pretty straight down the line when she was on Sky. Hard yards when you are surrounded on the panel by the sort of people who now populate Sky “After Dark” .

  49. Good on Penny Wong for quietly eschewing the handshake of a blatantly mendacious politician. Calls to mind when the Greens Party leader, Bob Brown, displayed even more emphatically in Parliament his disapproval of Pres. W. Bush’s,mendacity. Ah, those were the days, my friends!

  50. Karvelas is very forthright. I am a fan.

    Rowland is so cringe worthy he belongs on Nine.

    Crabb’s okay in her niche.

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