Odds and sods: week four

Labor firms in its favouritism on the question of party to form government, but the movement is mostly the other way in individual seat markets.

There has been a fair bit of movement in bookmakers’ odds for the election over the last week and a bit, first in favour of the Coalition and then against, with the leaders’ debate on Friday night appearing to provide the catalyst for the change. At the time of the last of these posts, the Coalition was near its peak at $3.30 with Labor at $1.32, but now Labor is in to $1.22 and the Coalition out to $4.30.

The most notable change on the seat markets is that there are now seven seats that are at evens, where there were none last week. As a result, the Liberals are no longer clear favourites in Capricornia and Bass, and Labor no longer are in Dawson, Leichhardt, Braddon, Deakin and Stirling. Most of these were rated very close to begin with, although there have been reasonably substantial movements in Braddon (Labor $1.40 and Liberal $2.75 last week, now $1.90 each), Leichhardt (Labor $1.70 and LNP $2.60 last week, now $1.87 each), Dawson (Labor $1.57 and LNP $2.25 last week, now both $1.87). The Coalition now have the edge in Indi, where they are in from $2.15 to $1.80 with the independent out from $1.77 to $2.00.

Other movements of note: a much tighter race is now anticipated in Liberal-held Robertson, where the Liberals are in from $3.90 to $2.05 and Labor are out from $1.21 to $1.70, and the Country Liberals’ odds have been cut from $6.00 to $3.75 in Lingiari, with Labor out from $1.12 to $1.22. Conversely, there has been movement back to Labor in Solomon, where they are in from $1.50 to $1.30, with the Country Liberals out from $2.45 to $3.25. There has been movement almost across the board to the Coalition in Queensland, leaving Labor still favoured in Bonner, Dickson and Flynn, but by narrower margins.

With seven seats now tied up, and one moving from independent Coalition, Ladbrokes now has Labor clear favourites in 79 seats (down five), the Coalition in 60 (down one), and others in five (down one). As always, you can find the odds listed at the bottom right of each electorate page in the Poll Bludger federal election guide. Another thing you can find is the latest daily instalment of Seat du jour, today dealing with Chisholm, in the post immediately below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Odds and sods: week four”

Comments Page 14 of 27
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  2. Shorten mentioned his mother wanting him to go to a Jesuit school. The only other Jesuit school in Melbourne, is where my kids attended.
    I was very happy with the standard of education, social justice focus, and the co curricular activities that were available to them.

  3. Rex
    That would announcing a Newstart increase for the starving and destitute.?
    Still out of work are we Rex, if you had a job you would not spend so much time here!.

  5. Penny Wong should have accepted a handshake from Birmingham.
    Yes, she thought he was politicising foreign policy with his reference to Keating comments. She was right.
    Penny is a class act. She will be a first class Foreign Minister. But it was a simple error of judgement not to shake hands with a political opponent, at a political event. The optics were not a good look.
    But it will be lost in the wake of the appalling Telegraph smear which will ensure – without question – a comfortable Shorten election victory.

  7. The body language displayed today show that the pressure of the tightening polls is increasing.

    It’s hard to comprehend tight polls given the inept performance of this Govt, but it seems the polls are accurate.

  8. Check out what’s trending on Twitter

    1·Trending
    #MyMum
    5,155 Tweets

    #MyMum: Australians share tales of mothers’ sacrifices after Shorten’s tearful speech
    theguardian.com
    2·Trending
    #BillsMUM
    1,796 Tweets
    3·Trending
    Daily Telegraph
    6,986 Tweets
    Election 2019
    Bill Shorten condemns Daily Telegraph article about his mother during emotional speech

    4·Trending
    Anna Caldwell
    5·Trending
    Andrew Bolt
    1,344 Tweets

  9. C@tmomma
    Karvelas, if my memory is accurate, briefly lamented that her own mother had no such opportunities as she was given.

  10. I couldn’t imagine anyone betting a million dollars on a political outcome without having some pretty reliable inside information.

  11. thanks for mallee odds guys.
    I was aware of them. A seat poll would be interesting to give a feel for the independents standings.
    It could be interesting given the state election poll results.
    I will put $5 on independent @4.50

  12. LR
    An early call on next Monday’s Newspoll ( after today’s Murdoch intervention). They will be out in the field over the next few days.
    54/46 to the ALP

  16. Considering that something as superficial as a Labor MP saying “bless you!” after a Lib MP sneezes is enough for Rex to go into a “Lib-Lab = same” tirade, his sudden “How dare she be so meeean!” sulk about Penny Wong not shaking Simon Birmingham’s hand, shows you that he’s purely about trolling and nothing else. He’s definitely not about policy or substance.

    As for the “incident” – it’s such a non-issue that nobody except rusted-ons are going to give one crap about and is not worth analysing or tut-tutting over (kind of like the egg thing yesterday which acted as a microscopic diversion for all of 5 seconds.)

  17. Odds are collapsing back to Labor

    Betfair 1.21 to 5.6

    Harsh to cop if you are a tory who was clinging to hope……but what about if you are a faux progressive who has spent Labor’s years in opposition trolling Labor? A progressive triumph is going down but you’r e not invited. That’s gonna sting. That’s gonna sting

  18. Rational Leftist @ #666 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 5:06 pm

    Considering that something as superficial as a Labor MP saying “bless you!” after a Lib MP sneezes is enough for Rex to go into a “Lib-Lab = same” tirade, his sudden “How dare she be so meeean!” sulk about Penny Wong not shaking Simon Birmingham’s hand, shows you that he’s purely about trolling and nothing else. He’s definitely not about policy or substance.

    As for the “incident” – it’s such a non-issue that nobody except rusted-ons are going to give one crap about and is not worth analysing or tut-tutting over (kind of like the egg thing yesterday which acted as a microscopic diversion for all of 5 seconds.)

    That’s an irrational misrepresentation of what I said.

  22. That’s an irrational misrepresentation of what I said.

    You don’t know what that word means. Stop using it.

  23. Al Pal @ #655 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 4:57 pm

    Penny Wong should have accepted a handshake from Birmingham.
    Yes, she thought he was politicising foreign policy with his reference to Keating comments. She was right.
    Penny is a class act. She will be a first class Foreign Minister. But it was a simple error of judgement not to shake hands with a political opponent, at a political event. The optics were not a good look.
    But it will be lost in the wake of the appalling Telegraph smear which will ensure – without question – a comfortable Shorten election victory.

    Birmingham was threatening Australia’s interests by raising doubts about Wong’s integrity when she is Foreign Minister in a few weeks. This is close to treason. The only way to deal with that sort of behaviour is to push back hard without delay. I suspect she would have had something to say backstage as well.

    The second rate apparatchiks posing as Liberal government ministers need to get in the bin.

  24. Roger @ #668 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 5:07 pm

    Odds are collapsing back to Labor

    Betfair 1.21 to 5.6

    Harsh to cop if you are a tory who was clinging to hope……but what about if you are a faux progressive who has spent Labor’s years in opposition trolling Labor? A progressive triumph is going down but you’r e not invited. That’s gonna sting. That’s gonna sting

    Labor has made that more than plain to The Greenies. 🙂

  29. “Penny Wong should have accepted a handshake from Birmingham…”

    She should’ve head butted him and sunk the boot.

  36. “Imagine what the female cartoonists will have to say tomorrow!”

    The DT story….massive own goal.

    Be interesting to see how that plays in with reporting of the leaders “debate” tonight. Seems to me that ScoMo has put the Unions / Environment BOOO!!!!!! story out this morning to “guide” somewhat the questions from the NPC tonight??

    I’d laugh if he gets nuthing on that. 🙂

  37. Al Pal @ #660 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 5:06 pm

    LR
    An early call on next Monday’s Newspoll ( after today’s Murdoch intervention). They will be out in the field over the next few days.
    54/46 to the ALP

    Got you.

    Also, more generally I’m toying with accepting guesses for the election TPP. If there’s enough interest, expressed by having-a-go, I’ll crack open a fresh case of kudos for the morning after. 🙂

  38. Jesuits/Xavier were good on social justice – Shorten would have been there when Frank Brennan was their chaplin I think, and before John Paul II and his henchmen such as Pell made the church more conservative after a brief progressive flowering after Vatican2. I went through the Marist catholic system at the same time and got taught Socialism 101 and Liberation Theology as well as tolerance and pluralism by younger priests and brothers who were also mostly fine with my emerging atheism. They helped us to organise going to Palm Sunday peace/anti-nuclear marches and protests at the embassies of oppressive nations (such as Marcos’ Phillipines and Pinochett’s Chile, as well as anti-apartheid marches). Then I went to Melb Uni and met the elite prodo schools kids – and they were unthinkingly conservative and entitled and that had been reinforced by their schooling and peer groups. The ex-micks were generally progressive and left of centre – the Green movement is full of them.

    I have a few friends who were at Xavier around shortens era and they are all still labor/greens left, so it is an elite school but I don’t think it was a bastion of conservatism either. There would be many lefty-lawyers in Melbourne who went there.

  40. my betting co beteasy has this for mallee
    DIVISION OF MALLEE

    Coalition
    1.12
    Labor
    41.00
    Greens
    101.00
    United Australia
    101.00
    Independent (Jason Modica) ?
    10.00
    Independent (Ray Kingston) [bearded farmer dude]
    13.00
    Independent (Cecilia Moar) ?
    17.00
    So no option for independent only.
    and $1.20 alp $4.50 outright

  41. Prof. Higgins 504pm

    PatriciaKarvelas
    @PatsKarvelas

    Watching what our mums do has a lasting affecting on our own participation in the world. I watched my mum get up at 4am it work in an assembly line before our textile industry collapsed. My public education changed everything for me

  42. This is interesting. Is the Beetrooter in trouble?

    https://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/6111987/our-say-new-england-election-looking-like-a-two-horse-race/

    THE New England election is fast becoming a two-horse race if the poll conducted by the Tamworth Business Chamber after the recent candidate debate is to be believed.

    Incumbent Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce led the survey, with 46.4 per cent of people saying they would vote for him, with independent Adam Blakester trailing right behind him with 43.1 per cent.

    Just under 6 per cent were undecided on where their vote would go. The combined figure for the other six candidates was just 4.4 per cent of the vote.

  43. I would be astounded if a poll got out to 54/46 at this stage of the game……………when was the last election (ever) that one party was one or the other of these two percentages?
    I would be more than happy with a Labor win with majority in the Reps of 8 or so. Being able to determine the outcome in the Senate is a dream/nightmare for both of the majors. Even when Labor gets knocked off, the party still manages in the region of 48%. This allows the MSM to crow “landslide” but while this turns out the be the case in seats, it is not so much in TPP.

  44. C@tmomma
    says:
    Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 4:50 pm
    Victoria @ #627 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 4:37 pm
    Private school fees have risen exponentially compared to wages over the last 10 years.
    Shorten is 50. Therefore he would have been in attendance at that school 38 years ago. Whilst it wasn’t cheap, it is not as expensive as it is now.
    But that’s the sleazy trick nath likes to pull, he quotes the fees in today’s dollars.
    __________________________
    And wages were not as high in those days too. Xavier has always been an elite school with elite fees. Bob Santamaria’s children could not afford to go there, but got heavily discounted fees, back in the 1960s.

  45. nath

    I know people who attended around Shortens time, and whilst it was dearer than other catholic schools, it wasn’t as expensive as it is now compared to those same schools.

  48. This describes nath to a tee:

    To have a chip on one’s shoulder refers to the act of holding a grudge or grievance that readily provokes disputation. It can also mean a person thinking too much of oneself (often without the credentials) or feeling entitled.

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