There has been a fair bit of movement in bookmakers’ odds for the election over the last week and a bit, first in favour of the Coalition and then against, with the leaders’ debate on Friday night appearing to provide the catalyst for the change. At the time of the last of these posts, the Coalition was near its peak at $3.30 with Labor at $1.32, but now Labor is in to $1.22 and the Coalition out to $4.30.
The most notable change on the seat markets is that there are now seven seats that are at evens, where there were none last week. As a result, the Liberals are no longer clear favourites in Capricornia and Bass, and Labor no longer are in Dawson, Leichhardt, Braddon, Deakin and Stirling. Most of these were rated very close to begin with, although there have been reasonably substantial movements in Braddon (Labor $1.40 and Liberal $2.75 last week, now $1.90 each), Leichhardt (Labor $1.70 and LNP $2.60 last week, now $1.87 each), Dawson (Labor $1.57 and LNP $2.25 last week, now both $1.87). The Coalition now have the edge in Indi, where they are in from $2.15 to $1.80 with the independent out from $1.77 to $2.00.
Other movements of note: a much tighter race is now anticipated in Liberal-held Robertson, where the Liberals are in from $3.90 to $2.05 and Labor are out from $1.21 to $1.70, and the Country Liberals’ odds have been cut from $6.00 to $3.75 in Lingiari, with Labor out from $1.12 to $1.22. Conversely, there has been movement back to Labor in Solomon, where they are in from $1.50 to $1.30, with the Country Liberals out from $2.45 to $3.25. There has been movement almost across the board to the Coalition in Queensland, leaving Labor still favoured in Bonner, Dickson and Flynn, but by narrower margins.
With seven seats now tied up, and one moving from independent Coalition, Ladbrokes now has Labor clear favourites in 79 seats (down five), the Coalition in 60 (down one), and others in five (down one). As always, you can find the odds listed at the bottom right of each electorate page in the Poll Bludger federal election guide. Another thing you can find is the latest daily instalment of Seat du jour, today dealing with Chisholm, in the post immediately below this one.
‘The punter lives in NSW and the bookies report it is only his second wager with Ladbrokes.’
An address in Point Piper apparently..
There is a difference between average private schools and schools like Xavier. 30k a year is something that working class people could never afford. Let alone with two boys at 60k a year. Many private school charge 5-10k. But they are not in the same league as Xavier.
Mona has the black and white video of the blade cutting steel thing called:
“Thisstoryoffriedrichkurzwiliwanttotellitmyselfhowhelivdinthisroomand-”
Pretty out there.
And that’s even before you get to the sixty or so front bottoms.
Fab restaurant with views to a snow capped Mt Wellington
Took refreshments down to the pre-poll booth. My OH was surrounded by a group wanting to vote ALP but we’re worried about the death tax.
As Vic said earlier regarding FB, they also saw it on FB.
After some discussion they voted ALP.
It certainly has some of the electorate hoodwinked.
I thought FB was meant to remove this crap??
nath@2:10pm
Since you are discussing Shorten Mom, Can you tell about what Morrison mom did? You seem to have a lot of info on Shorten. Similarly you must be having lot of info on Morrison mum. Also, can you throw some light on how Morrison got preselected in the seat of Cook?
Autocorrect at it again!
Interesting that a lot of journos are posting about their awesome mothers today. Probably a lot to do with Mother’s Day being this weekend. However, Bill Shorten’s speech today has certainly resonated far and wide and is empowering a lot of people to become extremely lyrical.
This is a good thing imho.
News corps give free newspapers, advertise in NSW trains stations etc.
‘Bill Shorten also said that, in order to pay the fees, the family only went on 3 holidays the whole time Bill and his brother were at the school, as opposed to the wealthier families who went on holiday every year.’
I was curious about family holidays when I was at secondary school, not having not had one at all in those years. So I asked people I went to school with if they had family holidays. It was turned out to be very rare. The exception being of ‘visiting’ family somewhere far away.
I’m not sure who Morrison’s mother was. By the sound of things she was not as exceptional as Bill’s mother who was clearly gifted. You don’t get a PhD, then win awards at law school and practice as a barrister unless you have something.
‘Bill Shorten also said that, in order to pay the fees, the family only went on 3 holidays the whole time Bill and his brother were at the school, as opposed to the wealthier families who went on holiday every year.’
____________________
I never had a family holiday growing up. Unless you count a day trip to Kryal Castle!
sprocket_ @ #463 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 2:11 pm
—
Twas a guy who lives at MONA Arts according to the Tasmanian gossip mongers. Everybody knows everyone’s business down here. I wouldnt be surprised.
D @ #504 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 12:48 pm
Why would they when they rake in billions (note the b) in revenue from it?
@TheNewDaily:
Joe Hockey has decided to return home from his post as Australia’s ambassador to the United States in January.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/05/08/joe-hockey-ambassador-quit/
Mals not the only one to be in USA.
nath says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 2:27 pm
Or maybe the religious element was important to her?
People can have many different priorities and yet end up with the same decision.
Not everyone is driven by selfish motives.
That’s one of your blind spots.
Have a look at the last couple of Media Watch episodes … FB talk a lot and do almost nothing that might interfere with collecting revenue, even about what are clearly scams.
nath @ #502 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 2:47 pm
–
Go away grub
Dan Gulberry @ #480 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 2:29 pm
Dan,
That was me, although it was meant in the context of individual seat markets. Having said that, I’m amazed that they accepted a bet this big.
It obviously requires a special arrangement between the punter and the betting agency though. I tried to have $500 on the Coalition at $5.50 before the election was called, but Ladbrokes would only accept $100 (and never fear, I laid off on Labor when they got out to $1.35, so it’s a win-win).
All I can add is that I wish the punter every success in his endeavours!
Yes, Mona needs an open mind – what struck me was the sculpture of a suicide bomber, and the collage made from the detritus found in a drug addicts den – oh and the long row of plaster cunts
I’d actually prefer the ALP to win this election. God help any actual liberal supporter who turns up here!
Liberal Party Policy Committee doing its stuff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9PY_3E3h2c
@JamesRadford66
Taking up a handicapped parket spots for their booths seems to be SOP for @LiberalAus
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5waL9UUYAAu7EH?format=jpg&name=900×900
A future Labor government should make it clear that the American Rupert Murdoch will in future be refused a visa to come to Australia, on character grounds.
Greensborough Growler @ #507 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 12:49 pm
As I stated earlier, I reckon that unwittingly Devine and the rag she “writes” for have provided the Australian equivalent of America’s “October Surprise”.
During the build up to the campaign I was cautiously optimistic about a Labor win. As the campaign unfolded I moved into a state of nervous optimism. As of today I am now officially in a state of unbridled optimism.
nath:
Timing is everything. Has it occurred to you that a woman in Mrs Shorten’s position was forced to make an unfair choice between deferring (legal) career until after children raised versus pursuing legal career at the cost of not having children? A fairer and more just society would not force a woman of Mrs Shorten’s obviously high intellect to such a choice, in part because it does not maximise the use of her talents.
There is price caps on political betting markets, I tried to have $50 on Labor to win 91-100 seats at $6 with Sportsbet. They would only accept $40.
I feel like, just as in parliament, Tasmanians are over-represented on this blog 😛
E. G. Theodore
says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 2:59 pm
nath:
Bills mum could have been a barrister earlier, but she was an academic for many years. Sending her two sons to an elite private school whose equivalent 6 year fees for 2 boys is around 700k.
Timing is everything. Has it occurred to you that a woman in Mrs Shorten’s position was forced to make an unfair choice between deferring (legal) career until after children raised versus pursuing legal career at the cost of not having children? A fairer and more just society would not force a woman of Mrs Shorten’s obviously high intellect to such a choice, in part because it does not maximise the use of her talents.
______________________
People make these decisions all the time. Universities are full of mature age students who for one reason or another could not pursue their dreams until a later age.
I just watched Shorten’s moving and tearful statement about his mum, Morrison is going to lose by even more now….The Tele really stuffed this one, with friends like that who need enemas……
23-25% interest over 10 days certainly beats term deposit rates. I have never bet on this stuff, but it is tempting to place a much lesser bet to fund a nice weekend away. Some of the individual seat betting is probably even better – e.g. 1.88 for Steggall in Warringah (same odds as for abbott) on sportsbet.
Please stop reposting Nath’s comments. Once is enough.
WOW@2:20pm
“Nath’s true colours revealed today. As Green as Peter Dutton”
Or is it just possible that he is connected with somebody who was very close to Shorten in his past and who was personally and irrevocably hurt and shamed?
Many of the most expensive private schools, such as Xavier College, also offer scholarships and other forms of fee assistance. And many of those schools don’t make a big deal out of it (although some do) – in some cases the students themselves are unaware of the arrangements.
Zeh says:
It is even worse if you do a head count 😉
pica @ #527 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 3:02 pm
A suppository of wisdom obviously.
“Took refreshments down to the pre-poll booth. My OH was surrounded by a group wanting to vote ALP but we’re worried about the death tax.”
I think Labor needs to tackle this head on in public. That is absolutely the sort of false meme aimed at swing voters that turned the Brexit vote. Certain voters were targeted on FB and repeatedly shown images of Turkey ( and hence terrorists) entering the EU
I wouldn’t take a chance with it.
sprocket_
Seems it’s real..
“We’ve obviously seen some sizable bets come through in recent times, many of them on WINX, but clearly this gentleman thinks the Labor Party is a safer bet than the now retired mighty mare,” Ladbrokes Australia Chief Executive, Jason Scott said in statement.
@poroti I know right.
I’m an import and do not bear the infamous scar
I am using a different laptop. Can I please have the links the PB plugin for Chrome.
“Blobbit, you’re not alone. For some strange reason the private schools don’t advertise that many of the students don’t benefit from what they have to offer.
But you mustn’t have been a complete waste of time and effort for them as they would have gotten rid of you before you could blemish ‘their’ yr 12 results.”
Educationally, it was fine. The teachers ranged from awful to great, just like most schools. But for whatever reason, I was never initiated into the secret handshake. My kids are going to the local government school.
To be fair, the networking thing does exist, to a degree. From what I can see though, it’s a much stronger effect at uni level.
“I’d actually prefer the ALP to win this election.”
You mean Bill Shorten’s ALP? 😉
My view on the $1 million bet is that it’s crazy, regardless of the apparent certainty of the win.
At least someone can put their money where their mouth is
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/a-safer-bet-than-winx-punter-bets-a-million-dollars-on-bill-shorten-to-win-20190508-p51lar.html
“I’m not sure who Morrison’s mother was. ”
From the look of the son that was hatched……………..some non descript species of lizard??
My take on Turnbull’s earlier life.
It grated when he emphasised the finances because they were extremely well off.
However, no amount of money erases the scars of abandonment.
That feeling as a child haunts you forever.
sprocket@3:00pm
So are you saying that $1 million bet is fake news?
“I was curious about family holidays when I was at secondary school, not having not had one at all in those years. So I asked people I went to school with if they had family holidays. It was turned out to be very rare. The exception being of ‘visiting’ family somewhere far away.”
All of our family summer holidays involved visiting relatives: we’d often reciprocate (usually during other times of the year when the Relo’s would be visiting the big smoke). Spent a lot of time as a kid in Adelaide learning to ride bikes around the streets of Brighton, swimming at Glenelg Pier, learning to ride a horse at Echunga. Every other xmas was spent surfing at Coffs or Port Macquarie. Quite a few autumn and spring break holidays were spent on farms outside Coonabarabran, with lots of horse riding and the shooting of feral pests. We once did a road trip to Harvey Bay in our caravan – visiting relatives and family friends along the way.
I grew up thinking that’s how everybody lived.
Blobbit, I’m not sure what private school you went to, but in Melbourne the elite schools are Xavier, Scotch, Wesley, Geelong Grammar, Haileybury, and Trinity. That’s where all the lawyers, politicians and businessmen come from.
Dan Gulberry @ #522 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 2:58 pm
Today’s events have helped Shorten tie the various Labor policy announcements together. The Big Cancer announcement- His Mother had Cancer. The tax cuts for lower paid workers – mainly women. Backing strong policy focussed women to thrive in his inner sanctum of confidants. I’m sure there are more memes if you go looking for them.
So whereas people may have been suspicious of his motives to date, today’s back story gives him credibility and trust imho and can only be a positive momentum builder going in to the last week of the Election.
imacca
says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 3:11 pm
“I’m not sure who Morrison’s mother was. ”
From the look of the son that was hatched……………..some non descript species of lizard??
____________________________________
And I bet you don’t get called a grub! 🙂
Nice to see Shorten completely remove any of the sympathy Morrison might have gotten after his egging yesterday. What a reversal!