There has been a fair bit of movement in bookmakers’ odds for the election over the last week and a bit, first in favour of the Coalition and then against, with the leaders’ debate on Friday night appearing to provide the catalyst for the change. At the time of the last of these posts, the Coalition was near its peak at $3.30 with Labor at $1.32, but now Labor is in to $1.22 and the Coalition out to $4.30.
The most notable change on the seat markets is that there are now seven seats that are at evens, where there were none last week. As a result, the Liberals are no longer clear favourites in Capricornia and Bass, and Labor no longer are in Dawson, Leichhardt, Braddon, Deakin and Stirling. Most of these were rated very close to begin with, although there have been reasonably substantial movements in Braddon (Labor $1.40 and Liberal $2.75 last week, now $1.90 each), Leichhardt (Labor $1.70 and LNP $2.60 last week, now $1.87 each), Dawson (Labor $1.57 and LNP $2.25 last week, now both $1.87). The Coalition now have the edge in Indi, where they are in from $2.15 to $1.80 with the independent out from $1.77 to $2.00.
Other movements of note: a much tighter race is now anticipated in Liberal-held Robertson, where the Liberals are in from $3.90 to $2.05 and Labor are out from $1.21 to $1.70, and the Country Liberals’ odds have been cut from $6.00 to $3.75 in Lingiari, with Labor out from $1.12 to $1.22. Conversely, there has been movement back to Labor in Solomon, where they are in from $1.50 to $1.30, with the Country Liberals out from $2.45 to $3.25. There has been movement almost across the board to the Coalition in Queensland, leaving Labor still favoured in Bonner, Dickson and Flynn, but by narrower margins.
With seven seats now tied up, and one moving from independent Coalition, Ladbrokes now has Labor clear favourites in 79 seats (down five), the Coalition in 60 (down one), and others in five (down one). As always, you can find the odds listed at the bottom right of each electorate page in the Poll Bludger federal election guide. Another thing you can find is the latest daily instalment of Seat du jour, today dealing with Chisholm, in the post immediately below this one.
The Greens candidate for the Melbourne seat of Lalor Jay Dessi has been forced to quit after numerous offensive social media posts emerged, including a racist joke in which he questioned “which eyes are the real eyes” of an Asian friend.
Greens leader Richard Di Natale, who asked for a full briefing on Mr Dessi’s comments, said the ex-candidate’s posts between 2012 and 2015 were “clearly unacceptable”.
“Jay Dessi has given an unreserved apology to anyone they may have offended. I have now been advised that he has stood down as Candidate for Lalor,” Senator Di Natale told The Australian.
But the Greens leader appears to be sticking by his Northern Territory Lingiari candidate George Hanna, who has refused to apologise directly for sharing a meme in which the Liberal Party’s candidate Jacinta Price was called a “coconut”.
Mr Dessi has become the first Greens candidate to have to stand aside in this federal election campaign, but insisted it was his choice.
This is obscene:
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-pentagons-trillion-dollar-boondoggle/
No need to guess why they cannot repair their extensive list if infrastructure failures, their public health system, their public education system and many other dire needs in their society.
I sincerely hop we never go down this path.
BK @ #476 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 2:22 pm
Will you be attending ❓
I loved voting day at my wife’s aged care facility. Seldom seen such respectful treatment to anybody.
Definite tick ✔
Ven @ #531 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 3:04 pm
You trying to make excuses for nath’s vile contributions? Plenty of people have been ‘personally and irrevocably hurt and shamed’ but that doesn’t mean they then engage in the sort of personal vendetta that nath has.
Well, no, I’m sorry, some do, but you usually only hear about them when BK chooses his Arsehole of the Week, or you see them on the nightly news outside of court, where they have been charged with stalking and harassment.
Ven @ #505 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 2:49 pm
‘nath’ is probably a junior dipshit working at one of Murdoch’s crapsheets, so he has access to their no doubt comprehensive dirt file.
Either that, or he is simply a sad and boring obsessive who has nothing better to do with his life.
Yeah, describing Morrison’s mother as a lizard – even though, of course, it’s supposed to be a dig at Morrison himself, not that that is acceptable either – is not right.
You know……… if you’re going to call out the DT for the crap on Shortens’ mum then I’ll call out the crap about Morrisons…..give it rest guys….take the higher ground it isn’t hard to do.
I ( and many here ) don’t want Morrison as PM but we can do it with dignity…..at the ballot box…..and leave their mums out of it.
Re the Mona cruise boat.
If going book the elite package which includes drinks and horse Dover’s
Take the 1st boat out in the morning,that way you can board approx 30 min before it departs ,and the free drinks in your package start when you board
Go hard and you can knock off 4 drinks in the 20+ min cruise.
Greensborough Growler @ #548 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 1:13 pm
Very good points indeed.
I think I’ve got it! I think Nath is a kinda left-wing Donald Trump . One little post can get his ‘enemies’ frothing out of all proportion. I think he enjoys winding up his opponents on social media a little bit (like the orange one who-must-not-be-named). Which is lucky for him because it appears pretty easy to do. Maybe we should not take comments on this blog (as admirable as it is) quite so seriously. :-).
imacca
Retract that statement about Morrison’s mother.
‘Many of the most expensive private schools, such as Xavier College, also offer scholarships and other forms of fee assistance. And many of those schools don’t make a big deal out of it (although some do) – in some cases the students themselves are unaware of the arrangements.’
A relative of mine was very bright and talented at primary school and in grade 6 was offered 5 different scholarships to attend private secondary schools. She took one up and did what she was supposed to do, up the year 12 scores for the school.
A shame really, as these good marks had nothing to do with the school, she would have gotten them anywhere.
The sad part of this was the public system was deprived of these results and therefore, by comparison between private and public sector was starker than it should have been. This feeds into a ‘virtuous’ loop that perpetuates the myth that private schools are better than public schools.
Sprocket
I think front bottom is the preferred expression.
Oh and while I’m handing out free advice, I saw an excellent Labor ad on who the economy should work for.
It was terrific and ended with “the economy should work for working people”
I reckon it would be a lot more electorally powerful to change the final words to the more inclusive “for everyone”.
Andrew Earlwood
Memories – I was rugged up under the Pier Hotel watching the original Glenelg Jetty destroyed by a huge storm in 1948. They called it a gale in those days. It was sad but I also stormed the new one in abt 1975 or 76 with Don Dunstan to stop the end of the world. It was an hilarious day.
I went to Brighton High and we used to ride our bikes to Brighton, spend an hour diving off the end of the jetty then biked home to Glenelg.
Thanks for those memories
KayJay
I will not be attending.
Shorten, I think, will be Xavier’s first PM. Ironic, as it’s a pretty hard core conservative alumni. Wonder how they’ll position him in their marketing?
Tim Fischer made it to acting PM, under Howard, from time to time. I went there with the McGaurans (Peter and Julian) who enjoyed the spoils of a pub and grazing empire that later backed them into undistinguished careers in the National Party. The brighter oldest brother John was a safer bet to run the family business.
nath@3:13pm
Yes imacca is a grub for calling Morrison mum ‘a species of lizard”.
Well there goes that high ground Rex was standing on when he was acting high and mighty that Labor and Coalition candidates have had to stand down but the Greens remain eternally pure. The spin will change now, of course, to some bullshit about statistic inevitability of a bad egg here or there, or a “nobody really cares about that stuff anyway” dismissal.
David Crowe gets it right:
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/why-this-was-the-most-compelling-moment-of-this-election-campaign-20190508-p51l9i.html
Talk about an own goal by News Corp; arguably destroying what little chance Morrison has. It’s almost as if Murdoch wants a Labor victory – what, with Mother’s Day on Sunday, Bill’s birthday.
BK
I think of you and Simon K watching Sharkie surge to a win over Georgina Downer. It must be pretty exciting even tho I dont agree with Sharkie often. No family dynasty shld feel it a birthright in Oz
For anyone who really can’t get enough of election advertising and BS, The Guardian is running a site that is tracking all the parties and non-party associated or lobby group ads being run on FB
In some attempt at transparency by The Guardian, anyone can inflict further self-torture by seeing what is being said and done on FB in various names
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2019/may/01/australian-election-campaign-database-of-political-facebook-advertising
Hawkwsfan@3:25pm
“It’s a pretty hard core conservative alumni”
That is the reason why Shorten was able to date and marry into Liberal party elite.
😀
Our junk mail today.
Authorised by Law.Dow for Adani Mining Pty Ltd Townsville
“The Queensland Government needs to stop moving the goal posts.
So Adani can start kicking goals for workers and families of Regional Queensland”
Reverse side header
Six facts you should know about Adani’s Carmichael Mine
Ven
says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 3:26 pm
nath@3:13pm
Yes imacca is a grub for calling Morrison mum ‘a species of lizard”.
_____________________
Good on you Ven. I’d like it stated that I said nothing bad about Bill’s mum. Who was obviously a brilliant woman.
lefty_e I don’t disagree with you however I’m sure that they chose the wording “working people” based on research about what would be more effective for the purpose of the ad they were going for
My theory for the behaviour of Nath wrt Shorten is that, rather than being obsessed with Bill directly, he is unhealthily obsessed with Chloe. Accordingly his anger and obvious frustration derives from the fact that he thinks Bill is so undeserving of being in a loving partnership with such a talented and attractive partner. If Bill also becomes PM, he’s the guy with everything, meanwhile Nath has ……………
hawksfan
says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 3:25 pm
Shorten, I think, will be Xavier’s first PM. Ironic, as it’s a pretty hard core conservative alumni. Wonder how they’ll position him in their marketing?
Tim Fischer made it to acting PM, under Howard, from time to time. I went there with the McGaurans (Peter and Julian) who enjoyed the spoils of a pub and grazing empire that later backed them into undistinguished careers in the National Party. The brighter oldest brother John was a safer bet to run the family business.
___________________________
Hullsy and Pat McNamara were both deputy Premier of Victoria. Former Treasurer Phillip Lynch. Richard Alston. Thomas Ryan, Premier of QLD.
D @ #573 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 3:32 pm
1. It will mine coal.
2. Burning coal contributes to climate change.
3. Drastic action is needed on an immediate basis to rein-in climate change.
4. There’s no long-term future for any form of fossil fuel anymore.
5. The promised jobs are both overstated (quantity-wise) and temporary.
6. The renewables sector is booming, and will provide stable jobs for decades to come.
BH says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 3:24 pm
I remember going to Aldinga for a family picnic that day.
It would have given us a good view of the wave travelling up the the Gulf and we were hoping for a nice swell on its edges for a bit of fun in the water.
p.s. I was at Brighton High, finished at the end of ’83. 🙂
Just Quietly says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 3:19 pm
I think I’ve got it! I think Nath is a kinda left-wing Donald Trump .
There’s nothing remotely left-ish about nath. They campaign against the political organ of working people and its leader, non-stop, day-in/day-out. They are Troll.
“From the look of the son that was hatched……………..some non descript species of lizard??”
As can be seen from the above I did not at any time assert that she IS a lizard. Just raised the possibility that this was the case given the what her offsping is.
For all i know she is a lovely fully homosapiens lady who has simply been unfortunate enough to have ScoMo as offspring, and that could easily have more to do with nature rather than nurture.
Amy delivering on McCormack
Michael McCormack, still holding the Nationals’ wombat mascot like a lifeline, says Nationals voters are frustrated at the drought, not necessarily his party, in a chat to the ABC, where he continued his impersonation of an anthropomorphic loaf of white bread:
“Blobbit, I’m not sure what private school you went to, but in Melbourne the elite schools are Xavier, Scotch, Wesley, Geelong Grammar, Haileybury, and Trinity. That’s where all the lawyers, politicians and businessmen come from.”
One here in Perth, so it can’t possibly compare to those over East.
Trinity College – the cheapest of the posh Catholic schools. Probably equivalent in your list above to whatever was the cheapest one. Father worked in factories driving a fork lift. Mother was a barmaid, just in case we want to get into a contest about who’s more “working class”.
I guess I’m still not sure how it reflects badly (or at all) on Shorten as to what school his parent chose to send him to. He would have had pretty limited say in it.
Blobbit
says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 3:45 pm
. Father worked in factories driving a fork lift. Mother was a barmaid, just in case we want to get into a contest about who’s more “working class”.
________________________
A 2 income family? you lucky bastard!
Anyone got recent information on Craig Kelly’s chances of reelection in Hughes?
With a 9% margin, I wouldn’t imagine Mr Kelly would be under any immediate threat. Talk is of there not being a huge swing in NSW.
zenith @ #586 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 3:48 pm
They elected Danna Vale. So probably pretty good. 😐
zenith @ #585 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 3:48 pm
His margin is 9.3%, so it’s almost certain that he’ll be returned?
Back in the day when Melbourne Uni was called “The Shop” (not sure what it is called these days, The Metro maybe?) kids came there from government and non-government schools but I do remember in second year asking where X and Y were this year? Outcome – they had usually not passed and had gone back in to businesses “run by mum and dad”. What was striking to me at the time was that these dropouts had mostly gone to some of the more expensive non-government schools around town.
The hard lesson was that a “good” school might get you into Uni, but after a short time at Uni, it did not keep you there. I suspect Shorten, from what is said about his background, was in the survivor group. In any event, I gather he is now an Anglican. He keeps his religion largely to himself and not a bit like the Happy Clapper, Talking in Tongues PM we have currently.
Blobbit
says:.
I guess I’m still not sure how it reflects badly (or at all) on Shorten as to what school his parent chose to send him to. He would have had pretty limited say in it.
________________________________
As an individual it probably doesn’t. However, the front benches of both sides have increasingly become the preserve of alumni from elite private schools. Not healthy in my book.
” guess I’m still not sure how it reflects badly (or at all) on Shorten as to what school his parent chose to send him to.”
It doesn’t at all. That said my mum tried to send me to Guilford Grammar. 🙁 I made damn sure i flunked the scholarhip entry test on the day as i really, really did not want to go there.
Penny doesn’t seem happy with Birmingham. Didn’t see this debate.
From the Guardian politics live.
Ven says:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 at 3:30 pm
Hawkwsfan@3:25pm
“It’s a pretty hard core conservative alumni”
That is the reason why Shorten was able to date and marry into Liberal party elite.
————————-
If you are referring to Chloe, her mother was a member of the ALP in her youth.
“The hard lesson was that a “good” school might get you into Uni, but after a short time at Uni, it did not keep you there. ”
I deal with University undergrads all the time. Public school undergrads are generally more resilient and adapt better to University study than those from private schools. More liikley to finish their degrees…at least the science ones.
Peter Stanton @ #594 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 3:54 pm
No, Bill was married to Julian Beale’s daughter. Before he married Chloe.
AR
Paragraph for each, I’ll give the sub headers
1. Our water management plans have Federal Government approval
2. It will deliver $250 million in new investment to indigenous businesses
3. This Carmichael Mine will be just 1 of 125 coal mines in Australia
4. The Carmichael Mine site is 350 km inland from the reef
5. Australian Law guarantees farmers get their water before Adani
6. The project has strong support in the local indigenous community 294/1
I’m not endorsing it or otherwise.
How is Rob Oakeshott going ????? …… will he be back in parliament ???
a r @ #577 Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 – 3:39 pm
Exporting vast amounts of thermal coal for other countries to pollute the atmosphere has no virtue