Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Two new polls report Labor maintaining a lead on two-party preferred, but with minor parties making gains across the board from the majors.

The Guardian reports Essential Research, which has moved from fortnightly to weekly for the business end of the campaign, has produced the first national poll of the campaign to record movement in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. However, the shift from 51-49 to 52-48 comes despite a three-point drop in the Labor primary vote, amid a substantial increase in support for minor parties – notably the Greens, who pick up Labor’s slack by lifting from 9% to 12%. Similarly, a one point drop in the Coalition vote to 38% is mirrored by a one point gain for One Nation, now on 7%. Essential is not reporting separate figures for the United Australia Party.

It appears Essential is producing weekly results on preferred prime minister and party expected to win, but not approval and disapproval ratings. On the former question, Scott Morrison’s lead is out from 40-31 to 42-31; on the latter, Labor is down from 59% to 54%. The Guardian’s report does not provide the result for the Coalition, which was 41% last week. That will have to wait until the publication of the full report later today – as will more of the detail behind the finding that 46% prefer Labor’s policies and 36% prefer the Coalition’s. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1079. UPDATE: Full report here.

We also have the now seemingly regular weekly result for Roy Morgan (which I have deemed has come to the party too late for inclusion in BludgerTrack, or as a headline attraction on blog posts). After a lengthy period of movement to the Coalition, this records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. However, here too there is movement to the minor parties on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one to 38.5%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up 1.5% to 11%, One Nation up 1.5% to 4% and the United Australia Party up two to 3.5%. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 826.

Also out today is a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Mayo, published in The Advertiser. This suggests little has changed since Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance easily retained the seat from Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in the Super Saturday by-election last July. The poll credits Sharkie with a primary vote lead over Downer (who is running again) of 43% to 38%, with Labor and the Greens on 7% each and the United Australia Party on 3%. Her two-party lead is 57-43, compared with 57.5-42.5 at the by-election. The poll credits Sharkie with a 60% approval rating, with only 18% disapproving. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 557.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,051 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 22
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  1. ”
    sustainable future says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 5:20 pm
    When I have handed out HTVs I have been dismayed by the number of people who admit they still haven’t decided as they are walking into the booth or come and tell you ‘they changed their mind’ once they got in there. Or worse still are confused that they couldn’t vote for the leader of the party when they are not in their electorate. This 10% can decide elections!
    ”
    Are you implying that 10% of voters are politically stupid?

  2. Why did European and Chinese both make up the same mythical creature called dragons. Were there dragons in past ages? These are the questions that keep me up at night.

    Dinosaur fossils and the fact that ancient cultures weren’t as isolated as we commonly believe.

  3. As the votes for others go up it’s inevitable that parties will begin winning government with less and less of the primary vote. I don’t think it’s that helpful to refer to previous elections. Either side can win with a primary of circa 35% if the other party is also polling around that.

  4. Rational Leftist
    says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 6:59 pm
    Why did European and Chinese both make up the same mythical creature called dragons. Were there dragons in past ages? These are the questions that keep me up at night.
    Dinosaur fossils and the fact that ancient cultures weren’t as isolated as we commonly believe.
    _________________________
    good point. On egg plants. The Chinese have a great way with them, with prawn and black bean sauce. Delicious. Nothing wrong with roasted egg plant either.

  7. nath says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 6:54 pm

    Why did European and Chinese both make up the same mythical creature called dragons. Were there dragons in past ages? These are the questions that keep me up at night.

    They didn’t, they have a variety of different names in different cultures.

    We only equate them because of some superficial similarities, but when you look deeper they vary hugely in their supposed characteristics. 🙂

  8. Max I would agree but the very low PVs have me wondering where they will scatter to – and whether TPP predictions can really be trusted. Not wetting pants but certainly not cracking champers just yet

  10. Ven,
    That is what what I was told, and it was true from the Liberal Party POV, the backbench did not want to go.
    Morrison exercised his captains pick, and took them all with him.
    He is running this election, his choices and he isn’t listening to anyone.
    I heard about Morrison’s difficulties earlier, Bongiorno wrote about it today, have u read that?
    Mike Hilliard just pay attention to the article, Bongiorno is a good journo, better than most.
    Anyhow, both of you, I hear the info, I pass on to you to accept or reject at your leisure.
    If it doesn’t fit your notion of what’s going that is not my problem. You don’t want to read it scroll it, no skin off anyone’s nose.
    Cheers

  11. guytaur @ #787 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 6:48 pm

    Australian Rugby has won its case.

    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/folau-hearing-concludes-but-no-verdict-reached-20190507-p51kzw.html

    Hm…

    After three intense days of deliberations, Folau’s hearing with RA finally concluded in Sydney on Tuesday but no sanctions have been decided and no timeline established on when that will occur.

    It is believed that will not happen until next week but the fact Folau has been issued with a high-level breach means there is a solid chance RA will be able to follow through with its intention to sack him.

    Odds that it’s a choreographed clusterfuck designed to stir up the culture-war nutters right before an election?

  12. When you think your god is your guide, taking advice from a chief of staff or whoever is a bit low bar. Not sure how judgement day on May 18 will pan out though. Hope god’s got his ear plugs ready.

  13. Hmm.

    Peter van OnselenVerified account @vanOnselenP
    10m10 minutes ago
    Drink of choice to end another day of the campaign….

    :large

  14. Jennifer Bechwati
    ‏

    @jenbechwati
    Follow Follow @jenbechwati
    More
    BREAKING: 24-year-old woman who egged the Prime Minister has been charged with common assault and possess prohibited drug (cannabis) – she was granted strict conditional bail – to appear in court later this month. #7NEWS #ausvotes

  15. Max

    The good thing about preferential voting. It means you can’t ignore people as much as in First Past the Post.

    This means the real centre will always be returned to. Not what a party or media or anyone else thinks it is. The reality. Centre right is NOT the centre.
    The centre is made up of Left AND right. Equally.

  17. Bluey hopes they lock her up, chuck away the keys and force her to eat a vegan prison diet of tofu and brussels sprouts for ever.

    This is outrageous. Of all the dumb things posted today Bluey tops it off.
    Clearly bluey has not found itself far enough into inland China to taste the delights of Sichuan Mapo Tofu from a Chengdu hole in the wall.

    OMG! Oh my happy Aunt! With extra chilli for the brave/foolhardy. Nirvana.

  19. Just recieved an email from Katie Allen (Lib candidate for Higgins). She thanked me for my previous support (really?) and wanted me to donate again to inform Victorians of Labor’s cash grab.

    Appears they don’t want Bill to get his hands on my money, they want it instead:-

    Australia can’t afford Labor

    Dear PeeBee,

    As you’re well aware, the federal election is coming up fast. We need your help.

    Your generous support was a major contributing factor toward our previous campaign.

    This election, any contribution you make, would further help us to inform Victorians of the risks that Bill Shorten and the Labor Party pose to the financial wellbeing of all Australians and to and the state of Victoria.

    By helping us, you’re helping to keep Bill’s hands off your money.

  21. Ar

    For Labor to win the election I hope they are that stupid.

    The Marriage Survey result was pretty comprehensive. A great way to boost Phelps chances in Wentworth as one example

  23. Red13

    You misunderstood me. I was questioning Ven’s post about your “friends” so called advice. It appeared Ven hadn’t read the Bongiorno article.

  26. Thanks for that, PeeBee.

    This bit makes no sense under the circumstances:

    By helping us, you’re helping to keep Bill’s hands off your money.

    When it’s taxpayers’ money that is being paid to retirees who haven’t paid any income tax!

  27. Bug1 @6:18PM
    “Moving on to the senate, i think it is a possibility that a mandate will be honored by the LNP for some legislation.”

    Things more possible than that:
    – An invasion from Mars
    – Scott Morrison sees the error of his ways and declares himself to be an atheist
    – Rupert Murdoch has a change of heart and tells his Australian editors to switch the bias to Labor
    – Cory Bernardi comes out as gay
    – The Sun gets swallowed by a black hole
    …

  28. I can’t load P16 at all and assumed William put all Wayne’s repeated posts there and locked us out. 🙂

  29. Barney in Phan Thiet @ #792 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 6:49 pm

    ajm says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 6:32 pm

    I think there is actually quite a strong possibility of a high Greens vote in this election – especially from young voters.
    …

    Despite there being little to no evidence in the major opinion polls to suggest this. 🙂

    Perhaps IPSOS are correct and the others are wrong. We won’t really know until after the election. Essential is also showing some increase in the Green vote.

    I get the sense that quite a lot of factors are playing out behind the scenes. So far the tried and true methodologies have been producing reasonable looking results but this may have been due to errors in the systems cancelling each other out.

    However things like the Victorian result raise the possibility that we’re seeing a bit of a step change in electoral behaviour.

    I may be way off beam of course and you are cordially invited to rubbish me mercilessly if the election doesn’t reflect what I’m saying

  30. – An invasion from Mars
    – Scott Morrison sees the error of his ways and declares himself to be an atheist
    – Rupert Murdoch has a change of heart and tells his Australian editors to switch the bias to Labor
    – Cory Bernardi comes out as gay
    – The Sun gets swallowed by a black hole

    One of those is distinctly possible.

  32. nath Barney

    I saw a Sci-Fi book some time ago about a sort of “Jurassic Park” in China with dragons.

    The Great Zoo of China by Matthew Reilly.

    I read the back cover and thought it was too much like JP to read, though I think the dragons had been rediscovered rather than genetically reanimated.

  33. It is a secret the Chinese government has been keeping for forty years.

    They have found a species of animal no one believed even existed. It will amaze the world.

    Now the Chinese are ready to unveil their astonishing discovery within the greatest zoo ever constructed.

    A small group of VIPs and journalists has been brought to the zoo deep within China to see its fabulous creatures for the first time.

    Among them is Dr. Cassandra Jane ‘CJ’ Cameron, a writer for National Geographic and an expert on reptiles.

    The visitors are assured by their Chinese hosts that they will be struck with wonder at these beasts, that they are perfectly safe, and that nothing can go wrong.

    Of course it can’t…

  34. Simon² Katich® says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 7:26 pm

    – An invasion from Mars
    – Scott Morrison sees the error of his ways and declares himself to be an atheist
    – Rupert Murdoch has a change of heart and tells his Australian editors to switch the bias to Labor
    – Cory Bernardi comes out as gay
    – The Sun gets swallowed by a black hole

    One of those is distinctly possible.

    I’m thinking number 4. 🙂

  40. When it’s taxpayers’ money that is being paid to retirees who haven’t paid any income tax!

    It isn’t the taxpayers’ money. It’s the Australian Government’s money. The Australian Government provides the private sector with Australian dollars. In exchange, the private sector provides the Australian Government with some real goods and services. The private sector uses the currency that it receives / earns from the Australian Government to pay taxes, buy goods and services, and save. Australian Government spending provides the currency that people need to pay their taxes with.

    At the state and local level it makes some sense to talk about taxpayers’ money because those governments are mere currency users, not currency issuers. They just gather / earn / borrow Australian dollars from other entities and then use those dollars to buy goods and services. Completely different from federal government finance.

  42. Vogon Poet says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 7:36 pm

    I must have bigger pages, p.11 is my last
    or is there 5 pages of fuckwittery I don’t have ?

    Wayne and Rex have both been here, so it’s possible.

    Also you may have activated the new bedwetting filter. 🙂

  45. ltep says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 7:42 pm

    A conspiracy theorist filter might leave one quite lovely.

    I think the bedwetting filter would have caught most of that today.

  47. A heavily redacted version of Page 16 will be released once a court order is produced. I think Nath, Wayne et al went feral and it all got a bit messy.

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